全球宏觀經濟變化（2023）

2023 Global Macroeconomic Transformation

出版日期: 2021年09月07日 | 出版商:

Frost & Sullivan | 英文 60 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內

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簡介
目錄

簡介

新型冠狀病毒感染（COVID-19）大流行使全球經濟在 2020 年陷入嚴重衰退，但現在正在復甦。雖然經濟指標有所改善，但流行病已經徹底改變了政府政策、行業和商業環境。 2020年全球經濟雖出現萎縮，但部分經濟體繼續表現出較強的韌性。與高度依賴旅遊業的意大利、西班牙等西歐國家相比，2020年第二季度德國經濟的收縮幅度較小。對城市的大流行封鎖、旅行限制和不公平的疫苗接種可能會延遲依賴旅遊業的經濟體的恢復進程。在美國，最新的 1.9 萬億美元刺激計劃顯著改善了增長前景，但傳染性極強的達美股票卻給經濟氣候帶來了不確定性。

本報告重點關注全球宏觀經濟變化、建立彈性經濟的新政府政策、主要國家的中期增長前景、全球貿易趨勢以及全球轉型期。 - 新冠時代、財政刺激措施後公共債務水平的變化、國家稅收和補貼政策、中國的全球工廠地位以及有關新勞動力趨勢的信息等。

增長機遇一：政府政策推動和金融激勵支持清潔能源增長
增長機會 2：再供應、近岸、中國加一 (China + 1) 戰略創造本地製造機會
增長機會 3：重點發展基礎設施以助推建設和支持行業增長
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Accelerated Policy Emphasis on Clean Energy, Digitalization, and Infrastructure Development

The COVID-19 pandemic pushed the global economy into a deep recession in 2020, with recovery underway. While economic parameters are improving, the pandemic has brought about transformative shifts in government policy, industries, and the business environment. This research provides insights into the new policy priorities of governments to build resilient economies, medium-term growth expectations for major economies, and the transformative changes in the global trade, supply chains, and workforce landscape.

While the global economy contracted in 2020, some economies continued to exhibit strong resilience. In Q2 2020, contraction in the German economy was weaker compared to Western European counterparts such as Italy and Spain, which are more reliant on tourism. The higher sensitivity of the tourism sector to the pandemic-induced national lockdowns, travel restrictions, and vaccine inequity could delay the recovery process in tourism-dependent economies. The United States's latest $1.9 trillion stimulus package has helped boost US growth prospects significantly, although the highly infectious Delta strain brings some uncertainty to the economic landscape.

Government vision and policy plans until 2030 indicate a greater focus on infrastructure development, digitalization, and accelerated transition to clean energy. Among the industries being promoted by the governments of major economies, digital infrastructure, clean energy, and electric vehicles are common focal areas. Fiscal policies in these countries show increasing tax and subsidy support for electric vehicles.

Recovery following the severe impact of COVID-19 on global trade and supply chain disruptions has been faster for goods trade compared to commercial services trade, with transport and travel services being particularly affected. The pandemic has also led to major trade and supply chain shifts. For example, just-in-time inventory strategies are expected to be complemented by just-in-case strategies for better future-proofing. Given the disruptions in global supply chains, trends such as localization, reshoring, and production and supplier diversification will gain prominence. The pandemic has also resulted in a significant change in the workforce. Remote working solutions are now vital, with remote and hybrid work models poised to extend post-pandemic, especially in higher-income countries. The gig economy will continue growing and increasingly expand into higher-skilled occupations.

The research also summarizes key growth opportunities tied to global transformative shifts.

Key Issues Addressed:

What is the 2023 growth outlook for major economies such as the United States, Germany, China, and India?

What are the key growth drivers and restraints shaping the global economy?

Which industries will be positively or negatively impacted by the global economic transformation?

What are the main post-pandemic policy priorities of global governments?

Following the pandemic-induced global fiscal stimulus boost, how will public debt levels evolve?

What are the tax and subsidies policy expectations across governments?

Will China maintain its status as a global production hub in the post-pandemic period?

How can businesses better future-proof their supply chains?

What new workforce trends can be expected post-pandemic?

How will occupations across industries such as education and healthcare change?

Strategic Imperatives

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Global Macroeconomic Environment
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Opportunity Analysis-Global Macroeconomic Environment

COVID-19 and the Global Macroeconomic Environment-Research Overview
GDP Growth Metrics for Key Economies
Growth Drivers for the Global Macroeconomic Environment
Growth Restraints to the Global Macroeconomic Environment
Global Economic Transformation and Impact on Industries

COVID-19 Impact on GDP and Outlook

Advanced Economies-COVID-19 Impact on GDP
Advanced Economies-COVID-19 and Growth Outlook
Emerging Market Economies-COVID-19 and Impact on GDP
Emerging Market Economies-COVID-19 and Growth Outlook

Government Vision and Industry Development Plans

Macroeconomic Vision and Policy Plans
Macroeconomic Vision and Policy Plans (continued)
Macroeconomic Vision and Policy Plans (continued)
Macroeconomic Vision and Policy Plans (continued)
Macroeconomic Vision and Policy Plans (continued)
Manufacturing vs Services Initiatives
Manufacturing vs Services Initiatives (continued)
Manufacturing vs Services Initiatives (continued)
Manufacturing vs Services Initiatives (continued)
Key Promoted Industries
Key Promoted Industries (continued)

Public Debt and Fiscal Policy

Advanced Economies-Public Debt Impact and Outlook
Emerging Market Economies-Public Debt Impact and Outlook
Government Spending, Tax, and Subsidy Policies
Government Spending, Tax, and Subsidy Policies (continued)
Government Spending, Tax, and Subsidy Policies (continued)
Government Spending, Tax, and Subsidy Policies (continued)

Trade and Supply Chains

Merchandise vs Services Trade Outlook
China+1 Strategies and Global Supply Chain Shifts
Sectoral Trade and Supply Chain Shifts
Future Proofing Supply Chains

Labor Force and Employment

Sectoral Employment Outlook
Sectoral Employment Outlook (continued)
Workforce Trend Expectations
Changing Face of Occupations

Growth Opportunity Universe

Growth Opportunity 1-Clean Energy Growth Supported by Government Policy Push and Fiscal Incentives
Growth Opportunity 1-Clean Energy Growth Supported by Government Policy Push and Fiscal Incentives (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2-Reshoring, Nearshoring, and China+1 Strategies to Create Local Manufacturing Opportunities
Growth Opportunity 2-Reshoring, Nearshoring, and China+1 Strategies to Create Local Manufacturing Opportunities (continued)
Growth Opportunity 3-Infrastructure Development Focus to Boost Construction and Supporting Industries Growth
Growth Opportunity 3-Infrastructure Development Focus to Boost Construction and Supporting Industries Growth (continued)
Why Frost, Why Now?
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
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