鑽井與井管服務全球市場預測：2019-2023年 (第3季)

預估北美地區支出最高，佔整體的37%。預測期間中，預估美國的岸上鑽井活動將以1.2%的CAGR成長。加拿大方面，包含跨山油管擴建相關進步，預估將幾乎完全仰賴管道的鑽探能力。中國政府為了減少對能源進口的依賴，預估其岸上鑽井活動將於預測期間中大幅成長。離岸方面，預估蓋亞那的石油天然氣部門的興起將強力支撐支出。2019年至2023年期間，預估該國將進行73處以上的海底油井鑽探。同期間中，預估巴西將進行超過200處的海底油井鑽探；拉丁美洲的離岸支出將擴大到510億美元。

本報告研究全球鑽井與井管服務市場，提供全球及主要地區/國家的支出預測、開發趨勢分析等情報。

主要研究結果

• 2019年至2023年總支出將達1兆3,000億美元，相較2014年至2018年增加14%。其中美國、中國、俄國占50%以上。
• 美國以外，由於政府計畫減少對碳化氫進口的依賴，中國取代俄國成為支出最高的國家。
• 拉丁美洲方面，由於巴西持續的離岸活動以及蓋亞那的石油天然氣部門興起，預估將強勁成長。
• 鑽井機與鑽井隊占總支出的29%，居市場最大占比，總計3,580億美元超出預測值。
• 在預測期間內，模擬占總支出的19% (2,360億美元) ，美國離岸佔整體的82%。

Over the 2019-2023 forecast, Westwood expects the DWS sector to continue to experience a modest improvement, with international markets beginning to see stronger growth rates in the coming years.

Though there is a positive trend overall, significant oversupply remains in many service lines. This, combined with strict capital discipline from operators, has kept pricing down and a return to the highs of 2013-2014 is not anticipated at any point over the forecast period. Focus in the near-term will be the onshore market, where project lead-times to first oil are short and risk is more manageable.

Global drilling and well services expenditure by service line 2014-2023

Key Conclusions:

• Total expenditure over 2019-2023 will amount to $1.3tn, a 14% increase compared to 2014-2018. The US, China and Russia will represent over 50% of this.

• Outside of the US, China has replaced Russia as the country with the highest level of expenditure, due to the government's plans to reduce reliance on hydrocarbon imports.

• Latin America is anticipated to grow strongly, driven by continued offshore activity in Brazil and the emergence of Guyana's oil & gas sector.

• At 29% of total expenditure, rig & crew represents the largest proportion of the market, totalling $358bn over the forecast.

• Stimulation to account for 19% ($236bn) of total expenditure over the forecast, with US onshore accounting for 82% of the total.

North America is expected to have the highest regional expenditure, representing 37% of the total. The majority will be US-focused, where onshore drilling activity is expected to increase at a 1.2% CAGR over the forecast. Canada will depend almost entirely on increasing pipeline takeaway capacity, including progress associated with the expansion to the Trans Mountain Pipeline.

China is set for notable growth in onshore drilling activity over the forecast, as the government aims to reduce China's dependence on energy imports. To achieve this, the country is expected to target unconventional plays, which typically requires more intensive drilling and carry higher associated development costs than conventional plays.

Offshore, the emergence of Guyana's oil & gas sector will support spend significantly. Between 2019-2023, Westwood expects over 73 subsea wells to be drilled in the country. Over the same period, a resurgent Brazil will see over 200, high cost, subsea wells drilled, boosting Latin American offshore expenditure to $51bn.

The ‘World Drilling & Well Services Market Forecast’ offers unique insight into over 20 different service lines and is an essential product for business planners and those looking to make informed investment decisions.