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上游產業 (石油、天然氣市場上游部門)的投資預測

Upstream Investment Outlook 2018

出版商 Douglas-Westwood 商品編碼 407926
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 46 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
上游產業 (石油、天然氣市場上游部門)的投資預測 Upstream Investment Outlook 2018
出版日期: 2018年02月09日內容資訊: 英文 46 Pages

本報告提供全球上游產業 (石油、天然氣市場上游部門) 調查分析,現狀與未來的投資預測相關的系統性資訊。



  • 石油市場動態
  • 石油需求
  • 石油供給
  • 油田增加份 (前20名)
  • OPEC生產
  • 石油價格的演進
  • 石油供需平衡
  • 石油價格的共識
  • 天然氣供需
  • 天然氣價格的共識


  • 能源混合的變化
  • 石油供給
  • 天然氣供給
  • 油田、天然氣田增加份 (前40名)
  • 業者重視的轉移
  • 液化天然氣 (LNG)
  • E&A,發現,蘊藏量


  • 每1桶的開發成本
  • 未來的營利性
  • 上游產業的油田設備支出
  • 上游產業的開採、坑井服務支出
  • 上游產業的Capex vs. Opex


  • 開發反應性
  • 境內的復甦
  • 海底牽索、固定平台
  • 浮體式生產系統 (FPS)


  • 企業的業績
  • 境內/海上的鑽機需求
  • 海底生產、處理系統的積壓
  • 海上風力
  • 西歐的退役


  • 經濟
  • 政治
  • 其他威脅

The oil market has shifted dramatically over the last 12 months. Brent crude prices have hit levels not seen for over three years. OPEC has executed a successful and disciplined intervention, particularly so in the latter half of 2017.

Offshore ordering showed a particularly strong improvement through the year, with many high-profile projects being sanctioned. Westwood's recent addition of Floating Production System (FPS) data into the SECTORS online platform highlights this, with a total of 15 new FPS orders being placed last year, compared to zero the year previous.

Oil Supply Demand Balance 2015-2022

Looking further forward however, the lack of sanctioning activity since the downturn will likely result in a shortfall in project executions early next decade. Current data suggests the oil market will transition into a sustained undersupply from 2021, which is likely to be met by high oil prices and a wave of new, fast-tracked projects being sanctioned. Despite electric vehicles, renewables and battery technologies having improved substantially in recent years, growth in these markets is unlikely to meet the oil supply shortfall.

Over the longer-term, however, threats from these technologies will only strengthen and the oil & gas market will have to continue to adapt, to a changing energy landscape.

Key Conclusions Include:

  • A further -0.9 mmbbl/d oil market correction is expected in 2018.
  • Saudi Arabia's production strategy after the ~5% IPO of Saudi Aramco remains unclear.
  • US shale production is already over 10mbpd and expected to hit 11mpd by 2019.
  • A further 16 FPS units which are expected to be ordered this year, in addition to the one already ordered.
  • Brent prices are outperforming industry consensus so far this year ($60/bbl 2018 average).
  • $1.7tn of upstream Capex is expected over 2018-2022.

Westwood publishes the Upstream Investment Outlook on a quarterly basis, to provide its independent view on the current, and future, state of the upstream oil & gas market - to educate investors and guide businesses through the coming months and years.

Table of Contents


Executive Summary

Near-Term Outlook

  • Oil Market Dynamics
  • Oil Demand
  • Oil Supply
  • Top 20 Oil Field Additions 2018-2019
  • OPEC Production
  • OPEC Production (Continued)
  • Oil Price Evolution
  • Oil Supply-Demand Balance
  • Consensus Oil Price
  • Gas Demand and Supply
  • Consensus Gas Price

Long-Term Outlook

  • Changing Energy Mix
  • Oil Supply
  • Gas Supply
  • Top 40 Oil and Gas Field Additions 2021-2024
  • Shifting Operator Focus
  • Liquefied Natural Gas
  • E&A, Discoveries & Reserves

Investment Outlook

  • Development Cost per Barrel
  • Future Commerciality
  • Upstream Oilfield Equipment Expenditure
  • Upstream Drilling & Well Services Expenditure
  • Upstream Capex vs Opex

Emerging Recovery

  • Development Reactivity
  • Onshore Rebound
  • Subsea Tiebacks and Fixed Platforms
  • Floating Production Systems

Supply Chain Conditions

  • Company Performance
  • Onshore & Offshore Rig Demand
  • Subsea Production & Processing System Backlog
  • Offshore Wind
  • Western Europe Decommissioning


  • Economic
  • Political
  • Other Threats