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市場調查報告書

全球水下作業工程船、硬體設備市場預測 (2019∼2023年)

World Subsea Vessel Operations & Hardware Market Forecast 2019-2023

出版商 Douglas-Westwood 商品編碼 303589
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 63 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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全球水下作業工程船、硬體設備市場預測 (2019∼2023年) World Subsea Vessel Operations & Hardware Market Forecast 2019-2023
出版日期: 2018年11月13日內容資訊: 英文 63 Pages
簡介

水下作業工程船、硬體設備的支出金額反應了原油價格的回復及投資擴大的影響,2019年∼2023年可望到達1520億美金規模。

本報告針對全球水下作業工程船、硬體設備市場進行調查分析,推動因素與指標、供應鏈分析、各地區分析等系統性資訊提供如後。

第1章 摘要和結論

第2章 總體促進要因與經濟概況

  • 海底資源領域的關注區域
  • 最近的主要活動
  • Operator Free Cash
  • 石油的需求:短期預測
  • 原油價格
  • 天然氣價格
  • 海底資源產量:各國
  • 海底資源的變遷

第3章 定義和用語

  • 為何是海底資源?
  • 離岸生產選項
  • 採油樹(Subsea Xmas Trees)與TMFJ硬體
  • SURF與管線
  • 海上油田及瓦斯田的生命週期及水下作業工程船
  • 船舶的類型
  • 船舶定義

第4章 硬體設備的供應鏈和承包商

  • 海底硬體設備的供應鏈
  • 採油樹/TMFJ/SURF/管線的競爭情形
  • 採油樹市場動向
  • 海底框架協定

第5章 船舶編隊

  • 全球船舶供給
  • 全球船舶供給數量
  • DSV (潛水作業支援船):供給方面的市場趨勢
  • MSV (多目的支援船):供給方面的市場趨勢
  • FLEXLAY (彈性安裝船):供給方面的市場趨勢
  • PIPELAY (管道鋪設船):供給方面的市場趨勢
  • LWIV (輕型修井工作船):供給方面的市場趨勢
  • 日薪分析

第6章 市場預測

  • 預測方法:Westwood的預測流程
  • 預測方法:支出預測
  • 模型概要與前提條件
  • 硬體設備的前提條件
  • 全球市場的預測分析
    • 硬體市場:各零件組件市場分析
    • 水下作業工程船市場:需求規模、支出金額預測
  • 非洲市場預測分析
  • 亞洲市場預測分析
  • 澳洲市場預測分析
  • 東歐、舊蘇聯市場預測分析
  • 拉丁美洲市場預測分析
  • 中東市場預測分析
  • 北美市場預測分析
  • 西歐市場預測分析

第7章 附錄

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目錄
Product Code: ISBN 978-1-910045-75-6

Oil Price Recovery Supports Investment, with Subsea Vessel Operations and Hardware Spend Amounting to $152bn over the 2019-2023 Period

The recovery in oil prices to above $70/bbl continues to spur a new wave of offshore investment. In view of this, Westwood is forecasting a rebound in offshore activity, with subsea vessel operations and hardware expenditure expected to amount to $152bn over the 2019-2023 period. The recovery in the subsea market is evident, with the positive sentiment seen in 2017 continued into 2018. This has significantly supported project sanctioning, with the number of greenfield projects passing the final investment decision stage in 2018 increasing by 154% compared with 2016, at the low-point of the downturn. This is supported by positive macro drivers in the near and long-term, albeit the recovery remains dependent on geopolitics and OPEC.

Supply-chain conditions remain challenging, and despite the strength of free-cash flow to operators, this has not yet translated to an improved commercial environment for services and equipment. In addition to tight cost control and capital discipline, operators are also managing their risk exposure through phased developments and standardised solutions for equipment.

Contact us to access the latest Subsea Vessels Operations & Hardware databook.

Key Conclusions

  • Over the forecast period, subsea hardware will account for 64% ($97.6bn) of expenditure, with subsea vessels operations accounting for the remaining 36% ($55.4bn) of forecast expenditure.
  • Subsea tree installation, a key indicator of subsea activities, is forecast to grow at a 6% CAGR over the 2019-2023 period, driven by Petrobras' investments in the Santos Basin and Equinor's commitments to ongoing projects in the Barents Sea and North Sea.
  • Over 18,482km of line pipes are expected to be installed over the forecast, amounting to $44.7bn in both material and installation costs - 29% of total expenditure over 2019-2023.
  • Westwood expects a significant volume of IMR activity to return to the market, with vessel-related IMR activity expenditure forecast to amount to $21bn over 2019-2023. This represents a 25% growth compared to the 2014-2018 period.
  • Subsea vessel demand days are forecast to total over 387,963 vessel days, representing a 12% growth compared to the hindcast. This will support an expected rise in vessel day rates in the latter years of the forecast, as the vessel supply-demand balance tightens due to low book-to-fleet ratio and an increase in retired vessels.

Find Out More

“The World Subsea Vessel Operations & Hardware Market Forecast 2019-2023” is presented using Westwood's proprietary database, with detailed insight on both the subsea hardware and vessel day demand by vessel type in eight distinct regions. This market forecast is based on a thorough scrutiny of the data which enables the forecasts to be built on a project-by-project basis, enabling Westwood to consider various market conditions which further complement the detailed evaluation of market activity and anticipated market development.

Table of Contents

1. Summary & Conclusions

  • Summary
  • Conclusions

2. Macro Drivers and Economic Overview

  • Subsea Focus Areas
  • Key Recent Events
  • Operator Free Cash
  • Oil & Gas Supply: Near-term Outlook
  • Consensus Oil Price
  • Concensus Gas Price
  • Subsea Production by Country
  • Subsea Evolution

3. Definitions & Terminology

  • Why Subsea?
  • Offshore Production Options
  • Subsea Xmas Trees & TMFJ Hardware
  • SURF and Pipelines
  • Offshore Field Lifecycle and Subsea Vessels
  • Vessel Types
  • Vessel Definitions

4. Hardware Supply Chain and Contractors

  • The Subsea Hardware Supply Chain
  • Subsea Xmas Trees, TMFJ, SURF and Pipeline Competitive Landscape
  • Subsea Tree Market Trends
  • Subsea Frame Agreements

5. The Vessel Fleet

  • Evolution of the Global Vessel Supply
  • Global Vessel Supply
  • DSVs - Supply Side Market Trends
  • MSVs - Supply Side Market Trends
  • Flex-Lays - Supply Side Market Trends
  • Pipelays - Supply Side Market Trends
  • LWIVs - Supply Side Market Trends
  • Day Rate Analysis

6. Market Forecast

  • Methodology: Westwood Forecasting Process
  • Methodology: Expenditure Forecasts
  • Model Summary & Assumptions
  • Hardware Assumptions
  • Global Subsea Hardware Market - Component Analysis
  • Global Subsea Vessel Ops Market - Demand & Expenditure
  • Africa - Hardware Component Analysis
  • Africa - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Asia - Hardware Component Analysis
  • Asia - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Australasia - Hardware Component Analysis
  • Australasia - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Eastern Europe & CIS - Hardware Component Analysis
  • Eastern Europe & CIS - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Latin America - Hardware Component Analysis
  • Latin America - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Middle East - Hardware Component Analysis
  • Middle East - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • North America - Hardware Component Analysis
  • North America - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Western Europe - Hardware Component Analysis
  • Western Europe - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure

7. Appendix

Figures & Tables

  • Figure 1: Global - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 2: Global - Vessel Demand Expenditure by Vessel Activity Type, 2014-2023
  • Figure 3: Subsea Focus Areas
  • Figure 4: Operator Free Cash Flow
  • Figure 5: Regional Year-on-Year Production Increase by Year (2019-2023)
  • Figure 6: Consensus Oil Price Forecast 2014-2023
  • Figure 7: Henry Hub Gas Price Consensus 2014-2023
  • Figure 8: 2018-2023 Production Change (kboe/d)
  • Figure 9: Surface vs. Subsea Oil & Gas Production, 2006-2023
  • Figure 10: Global - Subsea Tree Installation by Water Depth 1961-2018
  • Figure 11: Top-down view of a typical subsea production arrangement
  • Figure 12: Subsea Hardware Supply Chain
  • Figure 13: Subsea Prodcution Tree Order Value ($bn)
  • Figure 14: Visible Subsea Production and Processing System Backlog
  • Figure 15: Visible Active Subsea Tree Frame Agreement
  • Figure 16: Historic Vessel Deliveries by Type 1960-2018
  • Figure 17: Active Global Fleet by Type
  • Figure 18: Book-to-Fleet Ratio by Vessel Type
  • Figure 19: 2018 vs. 2014 Day Rate Ranges
  • Figure 20: Westwood's Base Case - Subsea Tree Installations by Field Status
  • Figure 21: Global - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 22: Global - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-2023
  • Figure 23: Global - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Figure 24: Africa - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 25: Africa - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-2023
  • Figure 26: Africa - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Figure 27: Asia - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 28: Asia - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-2023
  • Figure 29: Asia - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Figure 30: Australasia - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 31: Australasia - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-2023
  • Figure 32: Australasia - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Figure 33: E.Europe & CIS - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-23
  • Figure 34: E.Europe & CIS - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-23
  • Figure 35: Eastern Europe & CIS - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Figure 36: Latin America - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 37: Latin America - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-23
  • Figure 38: Latin America - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Figure 39: Middle East - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 40: Middle East - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-2023
  • Figure 41: Middle East - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Figure 42: North America - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 43: North America - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-23
  • Figure 44: North America - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Figure 45: Western Europe - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 46: W.Europe - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-2023
  • Figure 47: Western Europe - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Table 1: Vessel Definitions
  • Table 2: Vessel Categories
  • Table 3: Subsea Vessel Summaries by Type
  • Table 4: DSV Suppliers
  • Table 5: MSV Suppliers
  • Table 6: Flex-Lays Suppliers
  • Table 7: Pipelay Suppliers
  • Table 8: LWIV Suppliers
  • Table 9: Westwood Expenditure Outputs
  • Table 10: Global - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 11: Global - Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
  • Table 12: Africa - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 13: Africa - Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
  • Table 14: Asia - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 15: Asia- Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
  • Table 16: Australasia - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 17: Australasia- Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
  • Table 18: E.Europe & CIS - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 19: Eastern Europe & CIS - Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
  • Table 20: Latin America - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 21: Latin America- Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
  • Table 22: Middle East - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 23: Middle East - Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
  • Table 24: North America - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 25: North America - Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
  • Table 26: Western Europe - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 27: Western Europe - Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
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