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市場調查報告書

新興市場的疫苗市場的投入

Vaccines Market Access in Emerging Markets

出版商 Datamonitor Healthcare 商品編碼 912146
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 76 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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新興市場的疫苗市場的投入 Vaccines Market Access in Emerging Markets
出版日期: 2019年08月29日內容資訊: 英文 76 Pages
簡介

新興市場約佔全球疫苗市場的18%,規模超過240億美元。然而也有跡象顯示這是低估,一些觀察家預測整體市場將在2020年代中期達到500億美元規模。

本報告研究新興市場的疫苗市場,彙整市場情勢、各地區趨勢,分析市場透入策略、課題、機會等情報。

概要

市場情勢

  • 市場評估
  • 國家與多國投入策略
  • 國際利益相關者分析
  • 參考資料

亞太地區

  • 中國民間市場充滿活力,另一方面NIP價格停滯不前
  • 印度疫苗市場隨著產業全球化正緩慢改善
  • 亞洲中型市場面臨結構性挑戰
  • 參考資料

拉丁美洲

  • 集中採購不僅是製造商面臨的課題,亦提升了效率
  • 參考資料

中東歐

  • 俄國疫苗市場正在現代化
  • 歐盟成員國的技術成熟度及商業機會不均
  • 參考資料

中東和非洲

  • 中東的疫苗進口仰賴度逐漸降低
  • 參考價格在MENA地區擴大
  • 土耳其說明了「自我採購」市場的侷限性
  • 撒哈拉以南非洲地區尚未實現其龐大潛力
  • 參考資料

結論

  • 中所得國家是現代疫苗製造商的首要任務
  • GAVI (The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization) 開創新市場
  • 監控商業環境
  • "Not playing" 不是選項
  • 鎖定未開發市場,建立擴大範圍的共識

附錄

目錄
Product Code: DMKC0207695

Overview

Emerging markets account for approximately 18% of the global vaccines market, which is valued at more than $24bn. However, there are indications that this is an underestimate, and some observers forecast that the overall marketplace will reach $50bn by the mid-2020s. Gavi - a multilateral agency principally funded by the Gates Foundation - accounts for some $2bn, procured via the United Nations agency UNICEF. The remainder is represented by "self-procuring" middle-income emerging markets, including the BRIC-MT nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico, and Turkey) and many smaller, high-growth markets. Gavi is part of an international ecosystem of fundholders, financiers, researchers, and experts, some of whom are more focused on cost containment than rewarding innovation, as is evidenced by attempts to improve "transparency" in international vaccines pricing.

It is expected that Gavi's dose demand will plateau in the mid-2020s, as more countries that are currently reliant on the agency's funding for vaccines transition towards national procurement in their National Immunization Programs (NIPs). Given flat Gavi prices for modern vaccines, and stretched production volumes, multinationals are likely to focus even more intensively on middle-income countries in the future. In addition, manufacturers based in developing countries already account for a 40% share of Gavi purchases, and their influence in middle-income countries is growing commensurately.

Nevertheless, some multilateral mechanisms, such as the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Revolving Fund, offer opportunities for manufacturers of modern, differentiated vaccines. Emerging markets with "functional" National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs) offer the best long-term potential for multinationals, as value arguments are more likely to resonate; however, payers may exploit economic concepts such as budget impact and cost effectiveness to restrict access to the smallest possible population. In order to mitigate these risks, innovator companies can deploy quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess the market access environment in middle-income emerging markets, from population data to "functionality" criteria for regulators, payers, and technical advisors. In some markets, aggressive cost-containment measures, such as international reference pricing and "winner-takes-all" procurement practices, prohibit entry.

Asia represents the largest opportunity for modern vaccines in population terms, with more than 50 million births per year and a sizable willingness to pay among private individuals. This is an attractive proposition for multinationals, as prices for most NIP-funded vaccines are unacceptably low. India has significantly expanded its NIP in recent years, with pilots at sub-national level driving the changes, but funding continues to lag behind the country's enormous unmet need for vaccines. The smaller Asia-Pacific markets present some opportunities; Malaysia has a strong marketplace for foreign branded vaccines, but in neighboring Thailand, health technology assessment (HTA) presents an evidentiary hurdle, as well as a justification for negative decisions. Fragmented funding and incomplete reforms to healthcare systems pose physical and financial barriers to new vaccines in many middle-income Southeast Asian markets.

Latin America is the second-largest region in our survey, and - apart from Mexico - all member states of the PAHO participate in the Revolving Fund, a pooled procurement mechanism for the region. The Revolving Fund allows smaller member states to exploit economies of scale achieved by the larger countries, notably Brazil, which has also introduced cost-effectiveness gate-keeping, in addition to benefiting from PAHO's "lowest price" strategy. Technology transfer is a key goal for regional policymakers, although advanced capabilities in vaccines development and manufacturing are isolated.

In Central and Eastern Europe, technical capability and ability to pay appear inversely proportional to the size of the potential market. Russia is considering major expansions to its NIP, but access remains better at the regional level, although so-called "localization" policies are an additional burden. The Eastern European EU member states offer small but solid long-term prospects, although Romania is a cause for concern.

The Middle East and Africa is essentially three regions. The North African markets conduct largely national procurement, while the wealthy Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states pressurize prices through joint tenders. In sub-Saharan Africa, most markets are Gavi-dependent. The exception is South Africa, which is attempting to merge local production and government procurement via a single entity. While the wealthier markets still represent solid opportunities, as in many emerging markets, the region continues to transition away from reliance on modern vaccines to a mixed system of indigenous production, low-cost basic vaccines, and a limited space for innovative products.

To respond to the market access challenges and opportunities posed by developing countries, which differ fundamentally from high-income countries, no single approach is feasible. Instead, quantitative and qualitative indicators for local populations, payer capabilities, and funding opportunities can inform strategies. Full disengagement from multilateral or national fundholders is not advisable, but pricing and access strategies can be tailored to each market, depending on its attractiveness. These measures include arguing for wider coverage - especially among risk groups - and convincing payers to introduce non-price criteria into their decision-making. In terms of both coverage and new technologies, untapped markets exist, but should be cautiously evaluated for their price and volume opportunities.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

OVERVIEW

MARKET LANDSCAPE

  • Market valuations
  • Strategies for national and multilateral access
  • International stakeholder analysis
  • Bibliography

ASIA-PACIFIC

  • China's private market is dynamic, while NIP prices stagnate
  • India's vaccine market slowly improves as industry globalizes
  • Mid-sized Asian markets face structural challenges
  • Bibliography

LATIN AMERICA

  • Centralizing procurement challenges manufacturers, as well as delivering efficiencies
  • Bibliography

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

  • Russia's vaccine market is modernizing
  • In EU member states, technical sophistication and commercial opportunities are misaligned
  • Bibliography

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

  • In the Middle East, vaccine import dependency is eroding
  • Reference pricing is expanding across the MENA region
  • Turkey illustrates the limitations of "self-procurement" markets
  • Sub-Saharan Africa is yet to realize its enormous potential
  • Bibliography

CONCLUSIONS

  • Middle-income countries are the priority for manufacturers of modern vaccines
  • Gavi creates new markets
  • Monitor the business environment
  • "Not playing" is not an option
  • Identify untapped markets and build the consensus for expanded coverage

APPENDIX

  • Report scope

LIST OF FIGURES

  • Figure 1: Leading middle-income emerging markets: vaccine funding status (one of two), 2019
  • Figure 2: Leading middle-income emerging markets: vaccine funding status (two of two), 2019
  • Figure 3: Birth cohorts and government vaccine investment in middle-income countries, by country, 2018
  • Figure 4: UNICEF and PAHO vaccine prices, 2018
  • Figure 5: Middle-income vaccine markets - investment dashboard (one of two)
  • Figure 6: Middle-income vaccine markets - investment dashboard (two of two)
  • Figure 7: Stakeholder map - China vaccines market
  • Figure 8: Timeline of updates to India's Universal Immunization Program, 2002-18
  • Figure 9: Vaccines stakeholder map: Thailand Universal Healthcare Scheme
  • Figure 10: Mexico: vaccine stakeholder map
  • Figure 11: International reference pricing in the Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 12: Turkey: vaccine stakeholder map

LIST OF TABLES

  • Table 1: Leading multilateral immunization agencies
  • Table 2: Comparison: Drug versus vaccine business models in emerging markets
  • Table 3: Asia-Pacific: regional SWOT analysis
  • Table 4: A long-standing presence and constructive engagement can drive access
  • Table 5: Stakeholder summary: mid-sized Asian markets
  • Table 6: An immature market access environment can be hazardous for innovators
  • Table 7: Latin America: regional SWOT analysis
  • Table 8: Latin America: regional stakeholder summary
  • Table 9: Differentiated strategies are needed for the largest Latin American markets
  • Table 10: Central and Eastern Europe: regional SWOT analysis
  • Table 11: Central and Eastern Europe: regional stakeholder summary
  • Table 12: Technology transfer may help mitigate payer reluctance to fund new vaccines
  • Table 13: Middle East and Africa: regional SWOT analysis
  • Table 14: Middle East and Africa: regional stakeholder summary
  • Table 15: The MenAfriVac story will be difficult to replicate
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