Product Code: DMKC0200078
PharmaVitae explores Shire's prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2017-27. PharmaVitae analyses include quarterly earnings coverage and provide timely updates to company product forecasts. The full company profile encompasses analysis on corporate strategy, portfolio analysis, pipeline potential, and financial performance.
- Overview - Shire is set to maintain its slow growth rate as its acquired rare diseases portfolio faces fierce branded competition.
- Key themes -  PharmaVitae expects Shire's prescription pharmaceutical sales to grow at a 1.0% CAGR between 2017-27  Shire's CNS portfolio will increase to $3.6bn in 2022, but then fall sharply to $1.3bn in 2027 due to generic erosion of Vyvanse sales in the US  Shire's marketed rare diseases products will be extremely important to maintaining sales growth, adding over $2.3bn out to 2027  The hematology portfolio will decline at a -1.5% CAGR between 2017-27 as Shire's leading hemophilia A products lose market share under fierce competition from Roche's recently launched Hemlibra  Shire's burgeoning ophthalmology portfolio, led by Xiidra, will add $1.6bn to its top line over the forecast period.
- Q2 2018 - Shire's earnings edge higher after agreeing to sale to Takeda.
- Out to 2022 - Shire's acquired rare diseases products and its CNS franchise will drive sales to a mid-term peak of $16.6bn in 2022. Out to 2027 - The company will add $1.6bn out to 2027 owing to growth in its rare diseases portfolio, and the launch of Xiidra.
- Pipeline - Shire's pipeline is focused on rare diseases, with the highlight being Takhzyro, which is set to reach $1.9bn by 2027. Lifecycle - Shire's launch portfolio will offset its expiry portfolio as Takhzyro's launch is set to mitigate the 2023 patent expiry of Vyvanse.
- Major events - Shire's hematology portfolio will be impacted by rival Hemlibra's ongoing clinical development success and launch, as Shire's management team accepts a $65bn takeover bid from Takeda.
- Revised HAE franchise sales downwards.
- Revised hematology product sales downwards.
- Revised immunology product sales upwards.
- Lanadelumab name changed to Takhzyro.
- Delayed Xiidra launch in Europe to Q1 2020. Analysis structure
Explore and visualize revenue dynamics in Shire's portfolio out to 2027 using 10-year in-house sales forecasts segmented by the following sections.
- What were the major highlights from Shire's latest earnings call and quarterly performance?
- How is Shire strategically poised out to 2027?
- What are Shire's key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats?
- What are Shire's key catalysts during the current year?
- Why will specific therapy areas experience the largest growth and decline?
- What are the detailed competitive dynamics at play in Shire's important therapeutic markets?
- How is Shire adapting strategically to internal and external headwinds in preceding quarters?
Facts and figures
- What is Shire's forecasted sales performance out to 2027?
- What is the revenue trajectory of Shire's current top 10 products out to 2027?
- Which therapy areas will experience the largest growth and decline?
- What are the portfolio weightings of Shire based on the lifecycle of its products?
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- Model updates
- Analysis structure
Q2 2018 REVIEW
- Shire's earnings edge higher after agreeing to sale to Takeda
- Immunology sales drive
- Hematology business remains solid for now
- Neuroscience and internal medicine business
- Oncology and ophthalmology progress
Q1 2018 REVIEW
- Shire reports a solid start to 2018 amid talk of a takeover by Takeda
- $65bn takeover by Takeda
- Key Q1 2018 events
Q4 2017 REVIEW
- Shire reports 8% product revenue growth in 2017
- Immunology business
- Cinryze revenues rebound as Shire mitigates HAE headwinds
- AB Biosciences deal to boost immunoglobin R&D
- SHP609 failure in Hunter syndrome
- Neuroscience business
- Hematology business
- Internal medicines
- Ophthalmology business
- Key catalysts for 2018
Q3 2017 REVIEW
- Cinryze supply issues hold Shire to flat revenues
- Neuroscience business
- Q3 2017 events
- Acquisitions over 2015-16
- 2018 will continue to focus on execution restructure
- Big increase in net debt is not a large concern
- Takeda takeover
- Shire's SWOT analysis
- Shire's key events and catalysts
FACTS AND FIGURES
- Shire's prescription pharma sales outlook
- Shire's regional pharma sales outlook
- Shire's therapy area dynamics
- Shire's growth drivers and resistors
- Shire's portfolio lifecycle analysis
- Shire's pipeline analysis
- Shire's M&A strategy and history
LIST OF FIGURES
- Figure 1: Shire's prescription pharmaceutical sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2014-27
- Figure 2: Shire's therapy area dynamics, 2017-27
- Figure 3: Shire's launch/core/expiry portfolio configuration, 2017-27
- Figure 4: Shire's pipeline overview
LIST OF TABLES
- Table 1: Shire's historical net debt to EBITDA comparison
- Table 2: Shire's sales by therapy area ($m), 2017-27
- Table 3: Shire's prescription pharmaceutical sales by region ($m), 2017-27
- Table 4: Shire's sales by therapy area ($m), 2017-27
- Table 5: Shire's central nervous system portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017-27
- Table 6: Shire's rare diseases portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017-27
- Table 7: Shire's hematology portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017-27
- Table 8: Shire's ophthalmology portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017-27
- Table 9: Shire's key products, 2017-27
- Table 10: Shire's sales by launch, core, and expiry portfolio ($m), 2017-27
- Table 11: Shire's launch portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017-27
- Table 12: Shire's key merger and acquisition deals, 2001-18