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市場調查報告書

國家風險報告 - 柬埔寨

Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report Q1 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品編碼 719411
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 37 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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國家風險報告 - 柬埔寨 Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report Q1 2020
出版日期: 2019年12月13日內容資訊: 英文 37 Pages
簡介

柬埔寨的實質GDP成長率,預計從2018年的6.8%降低到2019年的6.2%、2020年的5.8%。EU撤回柬埔寨的優先貿易機會的風險高漲,不過,不期望洪森總理實行歐美要求的政治、法律上的改革方案,建議遲早必需擺脫對服飾產業的依賴和經濟的多樣化。

本報告提供柬埔寨的國家風險的相關調查,經濟、政治風險概要,SWOT分析,經濟發展預測與趨勢,金融政策,市場預測,國內外的政治形勢等相關資訊彙整。

目錄

摘要整理

  • 核心評估
  • 主要的風險

國家風險摘要

經濟風險指數

政治風險指數

SWOT分析

經濟 - SWOT分析

政治 - SWOT分析

經濟預測

經濟發展預測

  • 隨著貿易風險提高做柬埔寨的成長鈍化
    • 由於外部逆風給予出口和投資打擊,柬埔寨的經濟發展預計從2018年的6.8%減速到2019年6.2%,2020年5.8%。

各支出的GDP預測

外部地位預測

金融政策架構

結構的財政地位

的預測10年

到2028年為止的柬埔寨經濟

  • 農業,紡織品,旅遊促進成長
  • 重要的看法:由於勞動人口的增加和勞動生產率的提高,今後10年年度平均實質GDP的成長率為5.7%。農業出口,紡織品,旅遊業預計維持為成長主要支柱,從2017年估計1,380美元到2028年將增至3,334美元每人GDP。

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄
Product Code: CFKHLAMM_20200101

We maintain our forecast for Cambodia's real GDP growth to slow to 6.7% in 2019 and 6.2% in 2020, from 7.5% in 2018. A strong likelihood of a removal of

Cambodia's Everything But Arms trade privileges with the EU in the latter half of 2020 will likely weigh on the manufacturing sector's growth prospects. That

said, growth is likely to be supported by strong construction activity and tourism arrivals.

We believe that the political concessions made by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen will be insufficient in preventing the EU from temporarily removing

Cambodia's Everything But Arms (EBA) trade concessions. These concessions include the release of opposition leader Kem Sokha, a reversal of an earlier ban to

allow another opposition leader, Sam Rainsy, from entering Cambodia, and the release of opposition activists who were recently arrested. We believe that the

concessions will do little to change the political landscape and are thus maintaining our Short Term Political Risk Index score at 62.1 out of 100. A removal of

Cambodia's EBA preferences would have serious ramifications for Cambodia's economic growth over the longer term.

Key Risks

The risks to economic growth will rise considerably from 2020 if the EU indeed withdraws its EBA trade concessions for Cambodia.

Rapid growth in Chinese trade and investment is creating economic opportunities but could face rising social resistance if this fails to improve living standards

for locals.

Fresh concerns over a Chinese military presence in Cambodia could stoke geo-political tensions in the region.

Cambodia Country Risk Q1 2020fitchsolutions.com

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Maintaining Outlook For Cambodia's Growth To Slow
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Cambodian Economy To 2028
  • Agriculture, Textiles, And Tourism To Power Growth
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Cambodia Country Risk Q1 2020ContentsPolitical Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Cambodia's Preferential Trade Concessions With The EU Hanging By A Thread
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Rising Prosperity Will Be Key To Maintaining Political Stability
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Lower Growth, Despite Some Trade Progress
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: CAMBODIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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