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國家風險評估報告 - 泰國

Thailand Country Risk Report Q4 2019

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品編碼 203091
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 63 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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國家風險評估報告 - 泰國 Thailand Country Risk Report Q4 2019
出版日期: 2019年08月21日內容資訊: 英文 63 Pages
簡介

泰國的實質GDP預測由於美中貿易戰及投資預測惡化而低迷。因為社會不透明而有幾項風險,但不論選舉結果如何國家憲法都需要維護政治持續。12月19日舉行的金融政策會議將政策利率提升25點設定為1.75%,預測2019年泰國銀行利率會維持現狀。經濟成長遲緩、通貨膨脹低於目標、對金融穩定的憂心等,預計2019年會維持金融政策的現狀。

本報告調查了泰國的國家風險,並統整了針對政經風險概要、SWOT分析、經濟成長預測與趨勢、金融政策、市場預測、國內外政治情勢等資訊。

目錄

執行摘要

  • 核心總覽
  • 預測變更點
  • 主要風險
  • 國家風險概要
  • 經濟風險指數
  • 政治風險指數
  • SWOT分析
  • 經濟 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 經濟預測
  • 經濟成長預測
  • 2018年第3季GDP是2019年外部課題的預兆
  • 支出別GDP預測
  • 對外貿易投資預測
  • 泰國穩健的對外財政有減少的趨勢,但依然支持泰銖
  • 外部Position預測
  • 金融政策
  • 泰國對2018年利率上升沒有援助
  • 金融政策框架
  • 結構性財政Position
  • 通貨預測
  • 基礎強健的泰銖漸次升高
  • 本報告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research發表,並不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。報告中的評論和資料,都是僅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及獨立資訊來源所獲得。Fitch Ratings的分析師並未與Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享資料。
  • 2028年為止的泰國經濟
  • 政治不確定與主要成長障礙
  • 政治預測
  • 國內政治
  • 總選舉延遲提升了泰國政治混亂程度
  • 長期政治預測
  • 維持政治勢力的軍隊
  • 運用風險
  • 紛爭風險
  • 交通網
  • 世界總體趨勢預測
  • 對世界性成長的負面風險
  • 索引

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄
Product Code: CFTH_20191001

At Fitch Solutions, we are revising down our 2019 real GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.5% previously. Re-escalating US-China trade tensions and high inventory stock are the main downside factors likely to weigh on growth over the coming quarters. We expect the slowdown to be cushioned by favourable base effects and monetary easing, while the formation of a new government over the coming weeks will likely see supportive fiscal policies being adopted. A significant delay to government formation and further escalation in US-China trade tensions are the main downside risks to our forecast.

We still expect the Bank of Thailand to cut its policy interest rate by 25bps by the end of 2019. The central bank's tone remains dovish, and is now further worried by the impact of what it deems as strong currency appreciation on the external sector. Our view remains supported by two key factors; slowing growth prospects and inflation which is likely to underperform the central bank's mid-point target of 2.5%. The long delay in government formation is likely to lead to a delay in passing the next fiscal budget, worsening the situation.

Thailand's new government is gearing up to implement the populist promises in its manifesto, including income tax cuts and the extension of subsidies for public transport, fuels, and necessities. However, with specified details yet to be finalised at the time of writing, we at Fitch Solutions maintain our fiscal deficit forecast for 2019 at 1.9% of GDP and that for 2020 at 1.8% of GDP. We believe that farmers, in particular, may require yet more subsidies amid headwinds from drought and a strong baht.

We maintain our 2019 average forecast for the baht at THB32.00/USD, expecting the BoT to limit baht strength over the coming months to shore up the country's external sector. We also maintain our 2020 average forecast for the unit, which stands at THB31.25/USD, with the current account and more stable political environment likely to prove constructive for the unit over the coming quarters. However, uncertainty regarding the ability of the new government to maintain unity and govern effectively remains a key downside risk.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We have revised our real GDP growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.5% previously.
  • We have revised our policy interest rate for 2019 to 1.75% from 1.50% previously.

Key Risks:

The new government of Thailand is a coalition government consisting of 19 parties. The unity of the government will be a challenge to maintain, and major issues such as the upcoming bid by the Democrat Party to revise the 2017 Constitution, could result in paralysis or even dissolution of the government. Thailand's tourism boom has been largely driven by rapid growth in mainland Chinese arrivals, which could slow sharply should the Chinese economy undergo a slowdown.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Growth Revised Down On Re-Escalating Trade Tensions
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS IN 2017
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS IN 2017
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Resurgent Populism A Downside Risk To Public Finances
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • Thai Baht Strength Unlikely To Last Amid Global Risks
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • Thailand Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Thai Economy To 2028
  • Political Uncertainty The Main Growth Obstacle
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Thailand's New Government: Disunity Looms Large, But Low Coup Risk
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
    • TABLE: KEY NCPO MEMBERS RETAIN THEIR PORTFOLIOS
    • TABLE: OTHER MINISTERIAL APPOINTEES
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Uncertainty Ahead Despite Tight Military Grip
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORES
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Global Growth Deceleration, But Policy Increasingly Supportive
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: THAILAND - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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