表紙
市場調查報告書

國家風險評估報告 - 泰國

Thailand Country Risk Report Q1 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品編碼 203091
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 71 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
價格
Back to Top
國家風險評估報告 - 泰國 Thailand Country Risk Report Q1 2020
出版日期: 2019年10月25日內容資訊: 英文 71 Pages
簡介

泰國的實質GDP預測由於美中貿易戰及投資預測惡化而低迷。因為社會不透明而有幾項風險,但不論選舉結果如何國家憲法都需要維護政治持續。12月19日舉行的金融政策會議將政策利率提升25點設定為1.75%,預測2019年泰國銀行利率會維持現狀。經濟成長遲緩、通貨膨脹低於目標、對金融穩定的憂心等,預計2019年會維持金融政策的現狀。

本報告調查了泰國的國家風險,並統整了針對政經風險概要、SWOT分析、經濟成長預測與趨勢、金融政策、市場預測、國內外政治情勢等資訊。

目錄

執行摘要

  • 核心總覽
  • 預測變更點
  • 主要風險
  • 國家風險概要
  • 經濟風險指數
  • 政治風險指數
  • SWOT分析
  • 經濟 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 經濟預測
  • 經濟成長預測
  • 2018年第3季GDP是2019年外部課題的預兆
  • 支出別GDP預測
  • 對外貿易投資預測
  • 泰國穩健的對外財政有減少的趨勢,但依然支持泰銖
  • 外部Position預測
  • 金融政策
  • 泰國對2018年利率上升沒有援助
  • 金融政策框架
  • 結構性財政Position
  • 通貨預測
  • 基礎強健的泰銖漸次升高
  • 本報告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research發表,並不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。報告中的評論和資料,都是僅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及獨立資訊來源所獲得。Fitch Ratings的分析師並未與Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享資料。
  • 2028年為止的泰國經濟
  • 政治不確定與主要成長障礙
  • 政治預測
  • 國內政治
  • 總選舉延遲提升了泰國政治混亂程度
  • 長期政治預測
  • 維持政治勢力的軍隊
  • 運用風險
  • 紛爭風險
  • 交通網
  • 世界總體趨勢預測
  • 對世界性成長的負面風險
  • 索引

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄
Product Code: CFTH_20200101

Executive Summary:

We believe that Thailand's economy in 2020 will continue to face the same headwinds it has met during 2019, curbing the potential for a strong rebound in activity. External challenges are set to persist, widening net exports' drag on headline growth, and we expect a further moderation of household demand, given high indebtedness and weaker job growth prospects. Therefore, growth will be highly dependent on the effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus, with risks of delays to the former and insufficient impact from the latter. We now forecast growth in 2020 to rebound to 3.0%, from a forecast 2.8% in 2019, having previously expected a stronger pickup in growth to 3.5%.

We believe that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will take a cautious approach to further monetary easing over the coming quarters. We have maintained our forecast for the key policy rate to be kept on hold at 1.50% through 2019, but now forecast a further cut in 2020 to 1.25%. The key reason for the BoT's cautious ap- proach are policy constraints that we do not foresee abating in the coming quarters; namely high household indebtedness, slowing economic growth, Thai baht strength and ongoing trade negotiations with the US.

Thailand's fiscal packages will target boosting domestic consumption and investment as well as encouraging foreign direct investment over the coming quarters. The fiscal packages will not pose a threat to Thailand's fiscal position, which remains well managed under the Fiscal Responsibility Act. However, we note that the boost to the economy may be less than intended, given weak domestic confidence and longer-term structural issues. We expect the Thai baht to continue to see modest appreciation over the coming quarters, owing to its safe-haven status that protects the currency in times of risk aversion and the cautious approach to easing by the BoT. In 2020 we believe that the baht will test the resistance level set in 2013, as risk aversion rises and gold prices - which the baht tracks strongly - rise further. However, US dollar strength and some easing by the BoT in 2020 will curb appreciatory pressures, preventing a significant break below the 2013 resistance level.

We continue to highlight the risks to policymaking under the fragmented coalition of governing parties. The potential for the government to lose its majority remains elevated and policymaking could stall under rising disunity within the coalition. That said, we do not expect a return to the instability of previous years, with the military supporting the incumbent government and prime minister. Given that we had already factored in risks to Thailand's policymaking in our Short- Term Political Risk Score of 70.4 out of 100, we maintain our score for now, with risks tilted to the downside.

Major Forecast Changes:

We have revised our 2020 real GDP growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.5% previously.

Key Risks:

The new government of Thailand is a coalition government consisting of 16 parties. The unity of the government will be a challenge to maintain, and major issues such as the upcoming bid by the Democrat Party to revise the 2017 Constitution could result in paralysis or even dissolution of the government. Thailand's tourism boom has been largely driven by rapid growth in mainland Chinese arrivals, which could slow sharply should the Chinese economy undergo a slowdown.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks

Country Risk Summary

  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index

SWOT

  • Economic – SWOT Analysis
  • Political – SWOT Analysis

Economic Outlook

Economic Growth Outlook

  • Stimulus Impact Key To Thailand's 2020 Growth Rebound
    • We at Fitch Solutions believe that Thailand's economy in 2020 will continue to face the same headwinds as in 2019, curbing the potential for a strong rebound in activity

GDP By Expenditure Outlook

  • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
  • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
  • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS

Outlook On External Position

  • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS IN 2017
  • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS IN 2017

Monetary Policy

  • Bank Of Thailand To Continue Facing Policy Challenges
    • We at Fitch Solutions believe that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will take a cautious approach to further monetary easing over the coming quarters

Monetary Policy Framework

  • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS

Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook

  • Fiscal Packages To Target Short- And Long-Term Growth Boost
    • Thailand's fiscal packages will target boosting domestic consumption and investment as well as encouraging foreign direct investment over the coming quarters

Structural Fiscal Position

  • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS

Currency Forecast

  • THB: Modest Appreciation Ahead For The Thai Baht
    • At Fitch Solutions, we expect the Thai baht to continue to see modest appreciation over the coming quarters, owing to its safe haven status that protects the currency in times of risk aversion and the cautious approach to easing by the Bank of Thailand
  • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST

10-Year Forecast

The Thai Economy To 2028

  • Political Uncertainty The Main Growth Obstacle
    • Ongoing political uncertainty, deteriorating demographic trends and a lack of reform momentum are likely to undermine Thailand's long-term economic growth trajectory. We forecast real GDP growth to average 2.9% annually between 2019 and 2028, making it a regional growth laggard over the coming years
  • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Political Outlook

Domestic Politics

  • Policymaking At Risk From Slim Lower House Majority
    • At Fitch Solutions we continue to highlight risks to policymaking under the fragmented coalition of governing parties
  • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Long-Term Political Outlook

  • Uncertainty Ahead, Despite Tight Military Grip
    • Thailand will continue to experience political uncertainty over the coming decade, posing a risk to the existing political order, despite the increasingly tight grip of the military government. The most likely scenario is a dysfunctional democracy with unstable governments, with the military playing a strong role. At worst, rising political violence could push the country towards civil conflict, but the probability has declined since the 2014 coup

Operational Risk

  • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORES

Economic Openness

  • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
  • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS

Utilities Network

  • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
  • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
  • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
  • TABLE: WATER RISKS

Global Macro Outlook

  • Manufacturing Weakness And Rising Political Risk To Weigh On Growth
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y

Index Tables

  • TABLE: THAILAND – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
Back to Top