國家風險評估報告 - 泰國
Thailand Country Risk Report Q1 2020
|出版商||Fitch Solutions, Inc.||商品編碼||203091|
|出版日期||內容資訊||英文 71 Pages
|國家風險評估報告 - 泰國 Thailand Country Risk Report Q1 2020|
|出版日期: 2019年10月25日||內容資訊: 英文 71 Pages||
We believe that Thailand's economy in 2020 will continue to face the same headwinds it has met during 2019, curbing the potential for a strong rebound in activity. External challenges are set to persist, widening net exports' drag on headline growth, and we expect a further moderation of household demand, given high indebtedness and weaker job growth prospects. Therefore, growth will be highly dependent on the effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus, with risks of delays to the former and insufficient impact from the latter. We now forecast growth in 2020 to rebound to 3.0%, from a forecast 2.8% in 2019, having previously expected a stronger pickup in growth to 3.5%.
We believe that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will take a cautious approach to further monetary easing over the coming quarters. We have maintained our forecast for the key policy rate to be kept on hold at 1.50% through 2019, but now forecast a further cut in 2020 to 1.25%. The key reason for the BoT's cautious ap- proach are policy constraints that we do not foresee abating in the coming quarters; namely high household indebtedness, slowing economic growth, Thai baht strength and ongoing trade negotiations with the US.
Thailand's fiscal packages will target boosting domestic consumption and investment as well as encouraging foreign direct investment over the coming quarters. The fiscal packages will not pose a threat to Thailand's fiscal position, which remains well managed under the Fiscal Responsibility Act. However, we note that the boost to the economy may be less than intended, given weak domestic confidence and longer-term structural issues. We expect the Thai baht to continue to see modest appreciation over the coming quarters, owing to its safe-haven status that protects the currency in times of risk aversion and the cautious approach to easing by the BoT. In 2020 we believe that the baht will test the resistance level set in 2013, as risk aversion rises and gold prices - which the baht tracks strongly - rise further. However, US dollar strength and some easing by the BoT in 2020 will curb appreciatory pressures, preventing a significant break below the 2013 resistance level.
We continue to highlight the risks to policymaking under the fragmented coalition of governing parties. The potential for the government to lose its majority remains elevated and policymaking could stall under rising disunity within the coalition. That said, we do not expect a return to the instability of previous years, with the military supporting the incumbent government and prime minister. Given that we had already factored in risks to Thailand's policymaking in our Short- Term Political Risk Score of 70.4 out of 100, we maintain our score for now, with risks tilted to the downside.
We have revised our 2020 real GDP growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.5% previously.
The new government of Thailand is a coalition government consisting of 16 parties. The unity of the government will be a challenge to maintain, and major issues such as the upcoming bid by the Democrat Party to revise the 2017 Constitution could result in paralysis or even dissolution of the government. Thailand's tourism boom has been largely driven by rapid growth in mainland Chinese arrivals, which could slow sharply should the Chinese economy undergo a slowdown.