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市場調查報告書

國家風險評估報告 - 泰國

Thailand Country Risk Report Q2 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品編碼 203091
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 65 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
價格
國家風險評估報告 - 泰國 Thailand Country Risk Report Q2 2020
出版日期: 2020年02月21日內容資訊: 英文 65 Pages
簡介

泰國的實質GDP預測由於美中貿易戰及投資預測惡化而低迷。因為社會不透明而有幾項風險,但不論選舉結果如何國家憲法都需要維護政治持續。12月19日舉行的金融政策會議將政策利率提升25點設定為1.75%,預測2019年泰國銀行利率會維持現狀。經濟成長遲緩、通貨膨脹低於目標、對金融穩定的憂心等,預計2019年會維持金融政策的現狀。

本報告調查了泰國的國家風險,並統整了針對政經風險概要、SWOT分析、經濟成長預測與趨勢、金融政策、市場預測、國內外政治情勢等資訊。

目錄

執行摘要

  • 核心總覽
  • 預測變更點
  • 主要風險
  • 國家風險概要
  • 經濟風險指數
  • 政治風險指數
  • SWOT分析
  • 經濟 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 經濟預測
  • 經濟成長預測
  • 2018年第3季GDP是2019年外部課題的預兆
  • 支出別GDP預測
  • 對外貿易投資預測
  • 泰國穩健的對外財政有減少的趨勢,但依然支持泰銖
  • 外部Position預測
  • 金融政策
  • 泰國對2018年利率上升沒有援助
  • 金融政策框架
  • 結構性財政Position
  • 通貨預測
  • 基礎強健的泰銖漸次升高
  • 本報告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research發表,並不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。報告中的評論和資料,都是僅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及獨立資訊來源所獲得。Fitch Ratings的分析師並未與Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享資料。
  • 2028年為止的泰國經濟
  • 政治不確定與主要成長障礙
  • 政治預測
  • 國內政治
  • 總選舉延遲提升了泰國政治混亂程度
  • 長期政治預測
  • 維持政治勢力的軍隊
  • 運用風險
  • 紛爭風險
  • 交通網
  • 世界總體趨勢預測
  • 對世界性成長的負面風險
  • 索引

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄
Product Code: CFTH_20200401

We at Fitch Solutions believe Thailand's economy in 2020 will continue to face the similar headwinds it has met during 2019, curbing the potential for a strong

rebound in activity. External challenges are set to persist, widening net exports' drag on headline growth, and we expect a further moderation of household

demand, given high indebtedness and weaker job growth prospects. As such, growth will be highly dependent on the effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus, with

risks of delays to the former and insufficient impact from the latter. We now forecast growth in 2020 to rebound to 3.0%, from a forecast 2.8% in 2019, having

previously expected a stronger pick-up in growth at 3.5%.

We believe the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will take a cautious approach to further monetary easing over the coming quarters. We have maintained our forecast for

the key policy rate to be kept on hold at 1.25% through 2020 but note risks of further easing are higher given the impact of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

outbreak on the country's tourism sector. The key reason for the BoT's cautious approach are policy constraints we do not foresee abating in the coming quarters;

namely high household indebtedness, slowing economic growth, Thai baht strength and ongoing trade negotiations with the US.

Thailand's fiscal packages will target boosting domestic consumption, export-orientated sectors and investment as well as encouraging foreign direct investment

over the coming quarters. The fiscal packages will not pose a threat to Thailand's fiscal position, which remains well managed under the Fiscal Responsibility Act.

However, we note the boost to the economy may be less than intended given weak domestic confidence and longer-term structural issues. Moreover, delays

to the passing of the 2020 budget could mean fiscal policy fails to act as a buffer through Q120.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Thailand Growth Faces Significant Downside Threat From Coronavirus Outbreak
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS IN 2017
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS IN 2017
  • Monetary Policy
  • Rate Cut No Signal For Aggressive Easing Cycle In Thailand
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Thailand Budget Signals Greater Fiscal Stimulus Focus
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • THB: Thai Policymakers' Headache To Continue With Baht Appreciation
    • TABLE: FITCH SOLUTIONS CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Thailand Country Risk Q2 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Thai Economy To 2029
  • Political Uncertainty The Main Growth Obstacle
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Opposition Protests Not A Threat To Near-Term Political Stability In Thailand
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Uncertainty Ahead Despite Tight Military Grip
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Conflict Risk
    • TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS
    • TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
    • TABLE: MILITARY PROFILE AND DEFENCE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: MAJOR INTERSTATE CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
    • TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISK
  • Transport Network
    • TABLE: ROAD RISKS
    • TABLE: RAIL RISKS
    • TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAYS RISKS
    • TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Economic Stabilisation Continues And Inflation Picking Up Slowly
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: THAILAND - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS