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市場調查報告書

國家風險評估報告 - 菲律賓

Philippines Country Risk Report Q4 2019

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品編碼 203087
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 57 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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國家風險評估報告 - 菲律賓 Philippines Country Risk Report Q4 2019
出版日期: 2019年08月05日內容資訊: 英文 57 Pages
簡介

菲律賓實質GDP成長率預測從上次的6.3%到2018年的6.2%,2019年成長率往下修正到6.1%。金融情勢緊迫、通貨膨脹持續、消費者信任度低等導致個人消費成長預測依然低迷。此外商業環境惡化與稅制不透明影響了政府財政改革,被指出未來幾季可能抑制民間投資。預測菲律賓的財政赤字在2019年達到GDP的2.9%。成長緩慢的財政及金融政策的結果是相對於總體經濟穩定化下降風險升高,但菲律賓現在維持良好狀態。對外關係,預測菲律賓和中國未來幾年的國際關係與經濟合作都會更加深化。

本報告調查了菲律賓的國家風險,並統整了針對政經風險概要、SWOT分析、經濟成長預測與趨勢、金融政策、市場預測、國內外政治情勢等資訊。

目錄

執行摘要

  • 核心總覽
  • 主要風險
  • 國家風險概要
  • 經濟風險指數
  • 政治風險指數
  • SWOT分析
  • 經濟 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 經濟預測
  • 經濟成長預測
  • 菲律賓煩惱如何停止成長遲緩
  • 支出別GDP預測
  • 外部Position預測
  • 金融政策
  • 菲律賓在2019年提升價金
  • 金融政策框架
  • 財政政策與公債預測
  • 菲律賓財政走上擴大之路
  • 結構性財政Position
  • 通貨預測披索在2019年會緩慢下降
  • 本報告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research發表,並不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。報告中的評論和資料,都是僅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及獨立資訊來源所獲得。Fitch Ratings的分析師並未與Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享資料。
  • 2028年為止的菲律賓經濟
  • 高投資率維持經濟成長
  • 政治預測
  • 國內政治
  • 預期菲律賓和中國的關係將改善
  • 長期政治預測
  • 規制改善預測
  • 運用風險
  • 紛爭風險
  • 交通網
  • 世界總體趨勢預測
  • 不穩定性成為成長遲緩的重要因素
  • 索引

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄
Product Code: CFPH_20191001

Key View:

We have revised down our economic growth forecast to 5.9% in 2019, from 6.1% previously, owing to softer external demand and less fiscal stimulus.

We expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to adopt a cautious approach over the coming months, cutting its key policy rate just twice in 2019 to 4.25%, and deliver a further 25bps rate cut in 2020.

Key Risks:

A shift away from the West and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's more populist rhetoric could upset existing trade relations with major economic partners like the US and the EU.

The Philippines is increasing economic linkages and exposure to China (and moving away from the West), at a time when the US and China are experiencing rising trade tensions. A deterioration in US-China trade relations could weigh on demand across the Asia region and weaken Chinese investment into the Philippines. Philippines' twin deficits leave it somewhat exposed to a sudden bout of risk-off sentiment, with inflation a risk were the peso to weaken significantly.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views and Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Philippine Stimulus To Only Partially Offset External Drags
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • External Trade And Investment Outlook
  • Philippines' External Position Robust In The Near Term
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORT AND EXPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Philippines To Ease Monetary Policy Further
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
  • Philippines Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsCurrency Forecast
  • PHP: Appreciatory Run To Lose Steam, But Rout Less Likely
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Philippine Economy To 2028
  • Potential For Higher Investment Rate To Sustain Economic Growth
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Duterte Given Strengthened Mandate, But Faces Four Key Challenges
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Prospects For Improving Governance
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORE
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Trade Tensions And Slowing Momentum Point To Weaker Growth Outlook, Higher Risks
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: PHILIPPINES - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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