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國家風險評估報告 - 馬來西亞

Malaysia Country Risk Report Q4 2019

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品編碼 203083
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 65 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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國家風險評估報告 - 馬來西亞 Malaysia Country Risk Report Q4 2019
出版日期: 2019年08月05日內容資訊: 英文 65 Pages
簡介

馬來西亞2018年的實質GDP成長率從以前的5.1%降至4.6%,2019年成長率從4.5%往下修正至4.2%。2018年的修正反映了低於預想的2018年第3季結果,預計第4季成長會更加遲緩。除了個人消費,幾乎GDP所有支出項目都令人擔心,對2019年馬來西亞的成長有不良影響。2018年後半的業績與長久以來政治不透明,使得2019年馬來西亞通貨持續弱勢,從1USD兌4.20令吉修正至4.25令吉。

本報告調查了馬來西亞的國家風險,並統整了針對政經風險概要、SWOT分析、經濟成長預測與趨勢、金融政策、市場預測、國內外政治情勢等資訊。

目錄

執行摘要

  • 核心總覽
  • 主要預測變更點
  • 主要風險
  • 國家風險概要
  • 經濟風險指數
  • 政治風險指數
  • SWOT分析
  • 經濟 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 經濟預測
  • 經濟成長預測
  • 馬來西亞成長會進一步減緩
  • 支出別GDP預測
  • 外部Position預測
  • 金融政策
  • 馬來西亞國立銀行(BNM)在2019年面臨成長遲緩與通貨膨脹
  • 金融政策框架
  • 財政政策與公債預測
  • 馬來西亞2019年預算:對石油收入的依賴為財政重建帶來風險
  • 結構性財政Position
  • 本報告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research發表,並不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。報告中的評論和資料,都是僅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及獨立資訊來源所獲得。Fitch Ratings的分析師並未與Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享資料。
  • 長期以來的政治不透明使馬來西亞令吉到2020年前會繼續低迷
  • 10年預測
  • 2028年為止的馬來西亞經濟
  • 馬來西亞實質GDP成長率減緩至4.4%
  • 政治預測
  • 國內政治
  • 馬來西亞希望聯盟(PH)抑制了安華的人氣
  • 長期政治預測
  • 馬來西亞選舉政策依然不透明
  • 運用風險
  • 紛爭風險
  • 交通網
  • 世界總體趨勢預測
  • 不穩定性成為成長減緩的重要原因
  • 索引表

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄
Product Code: CFMY_20191001

Key View:

We maintain our 2019 real GDP growth forecast at 4.2%, marking a slowdown from 2018's print at 4.7%. Investment growth will likely remain subdued due to base effects, while the positive impact of construction projects resuming or commencing in 2019 will see little feed-through over the remainder of the year. Exports will likely face headwinds due to the re-escalation of US-China trade tensions.

We expect Bank Negara Malaysia to hold its benchmark Overnight Policy Rate at 3.00% through 2019 following a 25bps cut on May 7. Rising inflation over the rest of 2019 will close the window on further cuts, while a brightening growth outlook on the back of the revival of the East Coast Rail Link and Bandar Malaysia projects will relieve pressure on the central bank to ease further. The rising risk of re-escalation in US-China trade tensions remains the key downside risk to this view, especially after the US threat to hike tariffs on USD200bn worth of Chinese imports.

We maintain our forecast for the fiscal deficit to come in at 3.7% of GDP in 2019, as revenues continue to face downside pressure and expenditures, upside pressure. A softening global economic outlook due to rising trade tensions will likely weigh on revenues through both reduced economic activity and through lower oil prices. The need to bailout two national agencies deeply in debt will likely increase expenditures. Declining support for the government remains the key downside risk to fiscal consolidation efforts, as narrowing the deficit would likely require enacting unpopular policies to increase revenue and reduce spending.

We at Fitch Solutions have revised our 2019 average forecast for the ringgit to MYR4.15/USD, from MYR4.05/USD previously, to reflect risks posed by the re- escalation of US-China trade tensions in May. We remain slightly bearish on the unit over the long-term and maintain our 2020 average forecast at MYR4.25/USD.

The state of global trade relations will have a big impact on ringgit performance over the forecast period and we outline an upside and a downside risk scenario.

The degree of ethnic polarisation has increased since the Pakatan Harapan came to power after the general elections on May 9 2018, and is likely to deepen over the coming quarters as the opposition continues to play the race card. This has negative implications for social stability, and could eventually cost the government its support with even the non-Malays but we still regard the risk of violence as being low. The lack of national consensus is also likely to impede reforms, which increases the risk of Malaysia falling into the middle income trap.

Major Forecast Changes:

We have revised our 2019 and 2020 exchange rate forecasts to MYR4.15/USD and MYR4.25/USD, respectively, from MYR4.05/USD and MYR4.15/USD previously Our policy interest rate forecast for 2019 is now 3.00%, from 3.25% previously.

Key Risks:

Malaysia's economy is relatively well diversified and not particularly at risk from external shocks. The largest threat to the Malaysian economy comes from a rapid unwind of the household credit boom that has taken place over the past few years since the global financial crisis. This has the potential to result in a collapse in domestic demand amid declining property prices. This is not our core view, however, as debt service ratios remain manageable at current levels.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Malaysian Economy: Renewed Trade Tensions To Weigh On Nascent Domestic Recovery
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS & EXPORTS
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORT & EXPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Bank Negara Malaysia To Hold But External Risks Rising
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Trade Tensions, Bailouts To Impede Malaysia's Fiscal Consolidation
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPENDITURE & REVENUE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • Malaysian Ringgit Outlook Dimmed By Trade Disputes
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • Malaysia Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Malaysian Economy To 2028
  • Malaysia's Long Term Real GDP Growth To Slow To 4.4%
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Increasing Ethnic Polarisation In Malaysia Negative For Stability, Reforms
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Malaysian Electoral Politics To Remain Uncertain
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Trade Tensions And Slowing Momentum Point To Weaker Growth Outlook, Higher Risks
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: MALAYSIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
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