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國家風險評估報告 - 印度

India Country Risk Report Q1 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品編碼 203079
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 91 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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國家風險評估報告 - 印度 India Country Risk Report Q1 2020
出版日期: 2019年10月25日內容資訊: 英文 91 Pages
簡介

印度的實質GDP成長率由於High base效果與製造業衰退,從前一年同時期的8.2%大幅降低至7.1%。反映第2季的減速,2018年3月期的成長預測往下修正,從上次的7.3%改成7.1%。預計整體通貨膨脹率成長會比至今預測的還緩慢,印度儲備銀行(RBI)預計在2018年到2019年間將回購利率設定在6.5%、2019年到2020年間設定在6.75%。原油價格的反彈招致印度貿易條件的惡化,預測盧比會再度走弱。此外,政治不透明、信用違約交換擴大、財政惡化可能性等可能也是盧比體質變弱的重要因素。

本報告調查了印度的國家風險,並統整了針對政經風險概要、SWOT分析、經濟成長預測與趨勢、金融政策、市場預測、國內外政治情勢等資訊。

目錄

執行摘要

  • 核心總覽
  • 主要風險
  • 國家風險概要
  • 經濟風險指數
  • 政治風險指數
  • SWOT分析
  • 經濟 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 經濟預測
  • 經濟成長預測
  • 受到政治與影子銀行的負面影響,印度成長減緩
  • 支出別GDP預測
  • 外部Position預測
  • 金融政策
  • 軟性通貨膨脹推動印度抓緊金融政策
  • 金融政策框架
  • 財政政策與公債預測
  • 印度選舉費用昂貴是由於2018年的財政赤字
  • 結構性財政Position
  • 通貨預測
  • 短期內印度盧比會走弱
  • 本報告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research發表,並不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。報告中的評論和資料,都是僅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及獨立資訊來源所獲得。Fitch Ratings的分析師並未與Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享資料。
  • 2028年為止的印度經濟
  • 印度成長能符合期待嗎?
  • 政治預測
  • 國內政治
  • 莫迪總理在州選戰失利,重選前景黯淡
  • 長期政治預測
  • 轉換成重視商業的立場
  • 運用風險
  • 紛爭風險
  • 交通網
  • 世界總體趨勢預測
  • 變動性導致成長遲緩
  • 索引表

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄
Product Code: CFIN_20200101

Key View:

India's real GDP growth slumped even further in Q1 of FY2019/20 (April-March) to 5.0% y-o-y, from 5.8% y-o-y in Q4 FY2018/19, due mainly to a sharp slowdown in private consumption growth. While we continue to forecast growth to pick up over the coming quarters, supported by reforms, fiscal stimulus and favourable base effects, we now expect the rebound to be weaker than before, given a subdued external and private consumption outlook. Therefore, we are revising our forecast for growth to come in at 6.4% in FY2019/20, down from 6.8% previously.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its benchmark repurchase and reverse repurchase rates by 35 basis points (bps) at its August 7 monetary policy meeting to 5.40% and 5.15% respectively. Given that the extent of monetary easing in the 2019 year-to-date still appears to be insufficient in lifting economic activity, we expect the RBI to cut its policy interest rates by a further 40bps by the end of March 2020. Subdued inflationary pressures, combined with an urgent need to provide further economic stimulus to support economic activity inform our view for further easing. Risks to our forecast are still weighted to the downside, as a poor monetary policy transmission mechanism in India could necessitate steeper interest rate cuts than we currently expect. We have revised our forecast for the Indian central government fiscal deficit to 3.4%, from 3.6% previously, which continues to reflect our view for the government to miss its revised 3.3% fiscal deficit target for FY2019/20. We continue to believe that the government's revenue projections are too rosy, and this will likely see the government miss its goal of reducing its fiscal deficit to 3.0% by FY2020/21. The expenditure allocation of the full Union Budget remains consistent with the interim budget. Efforts to introduce additional stimulus measures to support economic growth over and above the interim budget appear to be lacking in the full budget.

We expect the Indian rupee to remain on a broad depreciatory path against the US dollar. Over the short term, a narrowing of real interest differentials with the US and a worsening terms of trade would put pressure on the rupee, while the central bank's focus on growth support would likely spur foreign exchange market interventions to limit rupee strength. Over the longer term, rupee overvaluation, higher inflation in India relative to the US, and periods of risk-off sentiment should exert downside pressure on the currency, although a possible further dovish turn by the US Federal Reserve could put a floor to this weakness. Accordingly, we maintain our forecast for the rupee to average INR70.50/USD in 2019, but are revising our forecast for the rupee to average INR74.00/USD in 2020, from INR72.00/USD previously.

We at Fitch Solutions believe that clashes between India and Pakistan could intensify over the coming months due to India's revocation of Kashmir's special status, although the conflict is likely to be contained within Kashmir. While not our core view, we see rising risk of military conflict between India and Pakistan, given the likelihood of an extended Indian military presence in Kashmir, and Pakistan's interest in challenging India's control of the region. China, an interested third party, is unlikely to materially intervene in the conflict as long as the Line of Actual Control separating it and India is respected. In light of ongoing elevated tensions between the two nations, we are revising our Short-Term Political Risk Index scores for India and Pakistan to 67.6 and 47.1 respectively out of 100, from 71.0 and 47.5 previously.

Key Risks:

Downside Risks To Growth: We expect slowing global economic growth to pose headwinds to India's Make in India campaign through slower foreign direct invest- ments growth in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, there is also the risk of banking sector asset quality worsening following the central bank's revision to its stress asset resolution framework in June 2019, which appears to show a softer stance towards the resolution of non-performing loans in the sector. A high load of non-performing loans on bank balance sheets will reduce monetary policy transmission as banks, with a high level of risk on their books, would be unwilling to lower their lending interest rates in line with policy interest rates. Poor monetary policy transmission could see growth underperform our expectations.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Growth To Record A Softer Rebound Over FY2019/20
    • TABLE: FDI REFORMS ANNOUNCED ON AUGUST 29
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Reserve Bank Of India's Easing Cycle Has More Room To Run
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • India's Full FY2019/20 Union Budget Providing Little Stimulus On Top Of Interim Budget
    • TABLE: KEY EXPENDITURE ANNOUNCEMENTS
    • TABLE: REVENUE SIDE MEASURES
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.India Country Risk Q1 2020ContentsCurrency Forecast
  • Indian Rupee Weakness To Persist
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Indian Economy To 2028
  • Will Indian Growth Live Up To Expectations?
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • India-Pakistan Skirmishes Over Kashmir To Intensify, But All-Out War Unlikely
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • A Second Chance To Reform The Economy
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Economic Openness
    • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
    • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • Utilities Network
    • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
    • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
    • TABLE: WATER RISKS
    • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Downside Revisions To Stabilise Somewhat, But Policy Risks Remain
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: INDIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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