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國家風險評估報告 - 印度

India Country Risk Report

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品編碼 203079
出版日期 年間契約型資訊服務 內容資訊 英文 85 Pages
價格
國家風險評估報告 - 印度 India Country Risk Report
出版日期: 年間契約型資訊服務內容資訊: 英文 85 Pages
簡介

印度的實質GDP成長率由於High base效果與製造業衰退,從前一年同時期的8.2%大幅降低至7.1%。反映第2季的減速,2018年3月期的成長預測往下修正,從上次的7.3%改成7.1%。預計整體通貨膨脹率成長會比至今預測的還緩慢,印度儲備銀行(RBI)預計在2018年到2019年間將回購利率設定在6.5%、2019年到2020年間設定在6.75%。原油價格的反彈招致印度貿易條件的惡化,預測盧比會再度走弱。此外,政治不透明、信用違約交換擴大、財政惡化可能性等可能也是盧比體質變弱的重要因素。

本報告調查了印度的國家風險,並統整了針對政經風險概要、SWOT分析、經濟成長預測與趨勢、金融政策、市場預測、國內外政治情勢等資訊。

目錄

執行摘要

  • 核心總覽
  • 主要風險
  • 國家風險概要
  • 經濟風險指數
  • 政治風險指數
  • SWOT分析
  • 經濟 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 經濟預測
  • 經濟成長預測
  • 受到政治與影子銀行的負面影響,印度成長減緩
  • 支出別GDP預測
  • 外部Position預測
  • 金融政策
  • 軟性通貨膨脹推動印度抓緊金融政策
  • 金融政策框架
  • 財政政策與公債預測
  • 印度選舉費用昂貴是由於2018年的財政赤字
  • 結構性財政Position
  • 通貨預測
  • 短期內印度盧比會走弱
  • 本報告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research發表,並不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。報告中的評論和資料,都是僅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及獨立資訊來源所獲得。Fitch Ratings的分析師並未與Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享資料。
  • 2028年為止的印度經濟
  • 印度成長能符合期待嗎?
  • 政治預測
  • 國內政治
  • 莫迪總理在州選戰失利,重選前景黯淡
  • 長期政治預測
  • 轉換成重視商業的立場
  • 運用風險
  • 紛爭風險
  • 交通網
  • 世界總體趨勢預測
  • 變動性導致成長遲緩
  • 索引表
目錄
Product Code: CFIN_20201001

We at Fitch Solutions are maintaining our forecast for Indonesia's GDP growth to come in at 5.1% in 2020 and 5.2% in 2021. We believe that risks to our forecasts are currently weighed to the downside as the Covid-19 epidemic that started in China is now spreading rapidly across the world. We see monetary and fiscal policy to be supportive in 2020 with some monetary policy tightening factored in for 2021. Indonesia's ability to attract foreign investment into the government's ambitious infrastructure development plan, will be contingent on the administration's ability to push through key reforms, quickly.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • FY2020/21 Economic Contraction One For The History Books
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Onus To Stimulate Economy Falls On Monetary Policy After Limited Fiscal Package
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • 'Mammoth' Covid-19 Package: Much Smaller Than It Seems
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT'S STIMULUS VALUE BREAKDOWN
    • TABLE: MAY STIMULUS PACKAGE
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.India Country Risk Q4 2020ContentsCurrency Forecast
  • Central Bank Intervention Underpinning Rupee Resilience
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Indian Economy To 2029
  • Will Growth Live Up To Expectations?
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
    • TABLE: NO INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB CHINESE MANUFACTURING
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Political Stability At Risk
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • The Worst Is Behind Us, But Emerging Markets Starting To Lag
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: INDIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS