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市場調查報告書

國家風險評估報告 - 印度

India Country Risk Report Q2 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品編碼 203079
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 79 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
價格
國家風險評估報告 - 印度 India Country Risk Report Q2 2020
出版日期: 2020年02月21日內容資訊: 英文 79 Pages
簡介

印度的實質GDP成長率由於High base效果與製造業衰退,從前一年同時期的8.2%大幅降低至7.1%。反映第2季的減速,2018年3月期的成長預測往下修正,從上次的7.3%改成7.1%。預計整體通貨膨脹率成長會比至今預測的還緩慢,印度儲備銀行(RBI)預計在2018年到2019年間將回購利率設定在6.5%、2019年到2020年間設定在6.75%。原油價格的反彈招致印度貿易條件的惡化,預測盧比會再度走弱。此外,政治不透明、信用違約交換擴大、財政惡化可能性等可能也是盧比體質變弱的重要因素。

本報告調查了印度的國家風險,並統整了針對政經風險概要、SWOT分析、經濟成長預測與趨勢、金融政策、市場預測、國內外政治情勢等資訊。

目錄

執行摘要

  • 核心總覽
  • 主要風險
  • 國家風險概要
  • 經濟風險指數
  • 政治風險指數
  • SWOT分析
  • 經濟 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 經濟預測
  • 經濟成長預測
  • 受到政治與影子銀行的負面影響,印度成長減緩
  • 支出別GDP預測
  • 外部Position預測
  • 金融政策
  • 軟性通貨膨脹推動印度抓緊金融政策
  • 金融政策框架
  • 財政政策與公債預測
  • 印度選舉費用昂貴是由於2018年的財政赤字
  • 結構性財政Position
  • 通貨預測
  • 短期內印度盧比會走弱
  • 本報告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research發表,並不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。報告中的評論和資料,都是僅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及獨立資訊來源所獲得。Fitch Ratings的分析師並未與Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享資料。
  • 2028年為止的印度經濟
  • 印度成長能符合期待嗎?
  • 政治預測
  • 國內政治
  • 莫迪總理在州選戰失利,重選前景黯淡
  • 長期政治預測
  • 轉換成重視商業的立場
  • 運用風險
  • 紛爭風險
  • 交通網
  • 世界總體趨勢預測
  • 變動性導致成長遲緩
  • 索引表

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目錄
Product Code: CFIN_20200401

India's real GDP growth slowed further to 4.5% y-o-y in Q2 of FY2019/20 (April-March), from 5.0% y-o-y in the first quarter, mainly owing to a collapse in investment

growth, which outweighed soft recoveries in private and government consumption. In light of a softer than expected first half, in addition to a weak growth outlook

over H2 FY2019/20, we have revised our FY2019/20 full year growth forecast to 5.1%, down from 6.4% previously. We expect continued economic weakness to

be owing to weak private consumption growth as well as weak gross fixed capital formation growth. That said, we expect robust government consumption growth

and an improving net export contribution (owing to a sharper fall in imports growth than exports) to prop up growth over the second half of the fiscal year.

The RBI held its benchmark repurchase (repo) and reverse repo during its December 5 monetary policy meeting at 5.15% and 4.90%, respectively. We continue to

forecast the RBI's repo and reverse repo rate to fall by 40bps to 4.75% and 4.50%, respectively, by the end of FY2020/21 (April-March), with risks to our policy rate

forecasts weighted to the downside. Rising inflationary pressures would constrain the central bank's ability to ease further to stimulate growth over the near term,

given its mandate to keep inflation below 6.0%. However, we believe that the RBI will eventually prioritise growth in this cycle, given the transitory nature of high

food inflation, and ease further in 2020 following more clarity around fiscal support from the FY2020/21 (April-March) Union Budget due in February 2020.

We have revised our forecast for India's central fiscal deficit to come in at 3.6% of GDP in FY2019/20 (April-March), from 3.4% previously, reflecting our view for a

larger slippage versus the government's 3.3% target. We believe that this will mainly be due to weak revenue collection as a result of sluggish economic growth

and the government's sweeping corporate tax cut in September amid no intention to reduce fiscal spending.

We continue to expect the Indian rupee to remain on a long-term weakening trajectory against the US dollar, and average INR73.00/USD in 2020 and INR75.00/

USD in 2021 (revised from INR74.00/USD and INR76.00/USD respectively). Over the short term, a narrowing nominal interest differential with the US and worsening

terms of trade will weigh on the rupee. The central bank's focus on growth will likely also see it favour a weaker rupee to support export competitiveness. Over the

longer term, we expect the rupee's overvaluation and structurally higher inflation relative to the US to exert downside pressure on the currency.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Sharp Downward Revision To India's Growth Outlook
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • India's Monetary Easing Cycle To Continue
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • India To Record A Larger Central Fiscal Deficit Due To Weak Revenue Collection
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • Indian Rupee On A Weakening Trajectory
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Indian Economy To 2029
  • Will India's Growth Live Up To Expectations?
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • India's Resistance To RCEP To Have Long-Term Domestic And Foreign Policy Implications
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • A Second Chance To Reform The Indian Economy
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Conflict Risk
    • TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS
    • TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
    • TABLE: MAJOR INTERSTATE CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
    • TABLE: MILITARY PROFILE AND DEFENCE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISK
  • Transport Network
    • TABLE: ROAD RISKS
    • TABLE: RAIL RISKS
    • TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAY RISKS
    • TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Growth Stabilising, With EMs Set To Accelerate In 2020
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: INDIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS