表紙
市場調查報告書

國家風險報告 - 中國

China Country Risk Report Q1 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品編碼 203072
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 71 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
價格
Back to Top
國家風險報告 - 中國 China Country Risk Report Q1 2020
出版日期: 2019年12月13日內容資訊: 英文 71 Pages
簡介

中國2018年經濟成長展望仍令人失望,實際GDP成長率跌至6.6%,針對2019年成長預測我們由之前的6.4%修降至6.2%。2019年美中貿易戰持續惡化,貿易相關外部因素很可能持續拖累未來成長。由於外在逆風導致失業並阻礙工資提升,個人消費成長可能持續承受壓力。但因政府針對貨幣政策放緩、減稅、增加基礎建設支出等的支援增加,投資成長可能會略微回升。

本報告研究中國國家風險,彙整經濟及政治風險概要、SWOT分析、經濟成長展望和趨勢、金融政策、市場預測、國內外政治情勢等情報。

目錄

摘要整理

  • 核心觀點
  • 主要預測變化
  • 主要風險
  • 國家風險概要
  • 經濟風險指數
  • 政治風險指數
  • SWOT分析
  • 經濟 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 經濟展望
  • 經濟成長展望
  • 由於貿易紛爭及消費減少,2019年中國經濟將進一步放緩
  • 按支出的GDP展望
  • 對外貿易投資展望
  • 貿易赤字和財政赤字並存提升了風險
  • 外部情勢展望
  • 貨幣政策
  • 貨幣政策框架
  • 財政政策及公債展望
  • 中國中央經濟工作會議:對成長支援的關注增加
  • 本報告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research發佈,並非Fitch Ratings的信用評級。報告中的評論及數據來自Fitch Solutions Macro Research和獨立情報來源。Fitch Ratings的分析師並未和Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享資料。
  • 通貨預測
  • 人民幣的良機將來臨
  • 10年間預測
  • 2028年前的中國經濟
  • 經濟重整導致結構性放緩
  • 政治展望
  • 國內政治
  • 2019年中國國民不安擴大的可能性高
  • 長期政治展望
  • 操作風險
  • 衝突風險
  • 運輸網路
  • 全球宏觀展望
  • 索引表

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄
Product Code: CFCN_20200101

We have revised our 2019 and 2020 real GDP forecast to 6.1% and 5.9% respectively, a reflection of our expectation for external headwinds to continue weighing

on the economy in 2020. Investment is likely to remain under heavy pressure as companies increasingly relocate away from China, and those which do not are

likely to postpone or shelve plans for renewal and expansion. We also believe private consumption and net exports will continue to drag, but less so, as demand

side stimulus measures and slowing imports are likely to cushion the impact.

We have revised our forecast for China's current account surplus for 2019 and 2020 to 1.5% and 1.0%. The revision accounts for a larger fall in imports than

we previously expected, which has helped to support the trade balance. We continue to expect China's current account surplus will diminish in future owing to

China's rebalancing towards consumption. We expect inbound portfolio investment to play a larger role in balancing the balance of payments accounts over

the coming years, as China gradually opens up its financial markets to foreign investors.

We maintain our forecasts for China's primary and final fiscal deficit to come in at 4.8% and 2.8% of GDP respectively in 2019. For 2020 we expect the fiscal deficit

to widen to 5.2% of GDP. We expect revenue collection to remain weak owing to tax cuts and slowing economic growth. Additional fiscal spending is also likely

given that Beijing's focus on stimulating growth amid a weak economic growth outlook.

We maintain our view for yet more monetary easing following the RRR cut announced on September 6, which will take effect in phases out to November. The estimated

CNY900bn liquidity injection from the 50bps broad cut and 100bps additional targeted cut will help support economic activity and financial stability. Continued external

headwinds from the US-China trade war is likely to see Beijing cut the RRR further and easier monetary policy is likely to remain in place over the coming quarters.

The yuan still faces downside pressure as we believe that a re-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China is likely despite the apparent detente. We

expect inflation in China to outpace that in the US through 2020 on the back of food inflationary pressures from pork shortages, but Beijing's willingness to

stabilise its currency would somewhat offset our bearish arguments. We are revising our average exchange rate forecasts to CNY6.90/USD in 2019 and CNY7.25/

USD in 2020 and 2021 to account from stronger-than-expected yuan performance in Q419.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised up our forecast for China's real GDP growth to come in at 6.1% in 2019 and 5.9% in 2020. We have revised our forecast for the yuan to average

CNY6.90/USD in 2019 and CNY7.25/USD in 2020. We have revised our forecast for China's current account surplus for 2019 and 2020 to 1.5% and 1.0% respectively.

Key Risks

Our yuan forecast assumes no lasting and comprehensive resolution to the US-China trade war in 2020 and is thus subject to upside risks.

Weak revenue collection could spur local governments to take on additional debt to fund development spending, which raises the risk of an unsustainable build-up

of debt. The State Council called for an increase in special purpose bond issuances to fund additional spending on infrastructure and other development projects.

This adds to the debt burden of local governments, which stood at around 20% of GDP in 2018 [excluding its off-balance sheet debt from local government financing

vehicles (LGFV)]. When Beijing undertook massive fiscal stimulus programmes after the 2008 financial crisis, cash-strapped local governments created opaque LGFVs

to meet economic growth targets. This not only undermined their competitiveness and profitability but also resulted in a significant increase in debt. While China has

introduced debt-for-bond swaps programmes since 2016, which allows local governments to swap their unofficial liabilities for government bonds, much of the debt

from LGFV remains hidden from their balance sheets.

China Country Risk Q1 2020fitchsolutions.com

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • China's Real GDP Growth To Come In Under 6.0% In 2020
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • External Trade And Investment Outlook
  • Falling Imports To Remain A Key Driver Of China's Current Account Surplus
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Slowing Economic Growth To Weigh On China's Primary Fiscal Balance
    • TABLE: REVISION OF PERSONAL INCOME TAX
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Not The End Yet For China's Monetary Easing Cycle
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.China Country Risk Q1 2020ContentsMonetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • Still Bearish On Chinese Yuan Despite Phase One Deal Rally
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Chinese Economy To 2028
  • Structural Slowdown To Span The Next Decade
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Hong Kong Rights Act A Key Risk To Trade Talks
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Major Challenges Over The Coming Decades
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Economic Openness
    • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
    • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • Utilities Network
    • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
    • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
    • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATION RISKS
    • TABLE: WATER RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Lower Growth Despite Some Trade Progress
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: CHINA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
Back to Top