表紙
年間契約型資訊服務

國家風險報告 - 印尼

Indonesia Country Risk Report Q1 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品編碼 180745
出版日期 年間契約型資訊服務 內容資訊 英文 73 Pages
價格
國家風險報告 - 印尼 Indonesia Country Risk Report Q1 2020
出版日期: 年間契約型資訊服務內容資訊: 英文 73 Pages
簡介

預估印尼的實質GDP成長率將從2018年的5.2%於2019年些微上升至5.3%。另一方面,成長可望受到政府強而有力的支出和基礎建設投資所支持。此外,貿易及市場不確定性高昇將左右印尼的成長氣勢,且風險傾向下行。儘管在2月21日的貨幣政策會議上,決定將基準7天期逆回購利率維持在6.00%,仍可期待2019年印尼央行持續緊縮貨幣政策。繼2018年稅制改革成功之後,預估2019年印尼的財政赤字可從之前的2.2%改善為2.0%。

預估印尼的實質GDP成長率將從2018年的5.2%於2019年些微上升至5.3%。成長可望受到政府強而有力的支出和基礎建設投資所支持。但貿易及市場不確定性高昇將左右印尼的成長,且風險傾向下行。

本報告研究印尼國家風險,彙整經濟及政治風險概要、SWOT分析、經濟成長展望及趨勢、貨幣政策、市場預測、國內外政治情勢等情報。

目錄

摘要整理

  • 核心觀點
  • 主要風險
  • 國家風險概要
  • 經濟風險指數
  • 政治的風險指數
  • SWOT
  • 經濟 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 經濟展望
  • 經濟成長展望
  • 按支出的GDP展望
  • 外部情勢展望
  • 貨幣政策
  • 印尼央行保留近期未來
  • 貨幣政策框架
  • 財政政策及公債展望
  • 透過選舉的財政健全化努力
  • 結構性財政情況
  • 貨幣預測
  • 印尼盾將在短期內穩定下來
  • 本報告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research發佈,並非Fitch Ratings的信用評級。報告中的評論及數據來自Fitch Solutions Macro Research和獨立情報來源。Fitch Ratings的分析師並未和Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享資料。
  • 2028年前的印尼經濟
  • 看漲的長期成長故事
  • 政治展望
  • 國內政治
  • 由於Joko Widodo在4月勝選的可能性高,政策可望持續
  • 長期政治展望
  • 前景改善但仍不確定性仍徘徊
  • 操作風險
  • 衝突風險
  • 運輸網路
  • 全球宏觀展望
  • 損害管制:需轉換至更加和緩的政策
  • 索引表
目錄
Product Code: CFID_20200101

Key View:

We at Fitch Solutions are maintaining our forecast for Indonesia's GDP growth to come in at 5.1% for 2019 and 5.2% in 2020. We believe that looser fiscal and monetary policies will boost government spending and investment in Indonesia over the coming months. However, net exports will likely act as a slight drag on growth as Indonesia's main trading partners face economic headwinds exacerbated by trade tensions.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • New Government Will Spur Economic Activity Through Stimulus
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • External Trade And Investment Outlook
  • Current Account Deficit To Remain Wide
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Bank Indonesia To Halt Easing For The Rest Of 2019
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
  • Currency Forecast
  • Rising External Headwinds Could Scupper Rupiah Strength
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Indonesian Economy To 2028
  • A Bullish Long-Term Growth Story
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Political Consensus Efforts Likely To Undermine Reforms
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Outlook Improved, But Uncertainty Lingers
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Economic Openness
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
    • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • Utilities Network
    • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
    • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
    • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
    • TABLE: WATER RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Lower Growth, Despite Some Trade Progress
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: INDONESIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS