表紙
市場調查報告書

國家風險評估報告 - 越南

Vietnam Country Risk Report Q4 2019

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品編碼 177811
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 61 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
價格
Back to Top
國家風險評估報告 - 越南 Vietnam Country Risk Report Q4 2019
出版日期: 2019年08月21日內容資訊: 英文 61 Pages
簡介

越南經濟在2018年成長7.1%,但是其市場開放性與對外資的依賴增加,暗示越南無法逃離日漸升高的貿易保護主義與世界性經濟成長遲緩的影響。製造業會成為帶領越南經濟成長的主要力量。2019年,越南的實質GDP成長率預計將減低至6.5%,但在整體區域會是經濟成長最快速的國家之一。越南國家銀行(SBV)計畫在2019年進一步強化金融政策。越南盾受到穩健對外直接投資的流入、健全的經常收支、中央銀行的積極性介入所支持,目前對美元匯率穩定,但是預計會因實質有效匯率和高度通貨膨脹緩緩下降。外交方面,預測越南會強化和俄國在經濟及軍事上的合作。俄國經濟由於西方各國的經濟制裁而受到打擊,俄國計畫對越南等東南亞國家的出口多元化。

本報告調查了越南的國家風險,並統整了針對政經風險概要、SWOT分析、經濟成長預測與趨勢、金融政策、市場預測、國內外政治情勢等資訊。

目錄

執行摘要

  • 核心總覽
  • 主要預測變更點
  • 主要風險
  • 國家風險概要
  • 經濟風險指數
  • 政治風險指數
  • SWOT分析
  • 經濟 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 經濟預測
  • 經濟成長預測
  • 雖然有成長遲緩的可能性,但越南依舊保持在地區的優勢
  • 預測支出別GDP
  • 外部Position預測
  • 金融政策
  • 國家銀行在2019年優先穩定總體經濟
  • 金融政策框架
  • 財政政策與公債預測
  • 2019年,越南財政赤字擴大的可能性很高
  • 結構性財政Position
  • 本報告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research發表,並不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。報告中的評論和資料,都是僅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及獨立資訊來源所獲得。Fitch Ratings的分析師並未與Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享資料。
  • 越南盾的短期穩定
  • 10年預測
  • 到2028年為止的越南經濟
  • 有品質成長的新焦點
  • 政治預測
  • 國內政治
  • 越南與俄國2國關係的進一步強化
  • 長期政治預測
  • 權力獨佔不可能持續
  • 運用風險
  • 紛爭風險
  • 交通網
  • 世界總體趨勢
  • 成長負面風險
  • 索引表

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄
Product Code: CFVN_20191001

We at Fitch Solutions maintain our forecast for Vietnam's real GDP growth to come in at 6.5% in 2019, down from 7.1% in 2018. In addition to unfavourable base effects over the remainder of 2019, slowing global demand will weigh on manufacturing growth. That said, robust growth in construction activity and services will likely continue to provide some support to the overall growth print.

We maintain our view for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to hold its benchmark refinancing and discount rate at 6.25% and 4.25% respectively, in addition to maintaining its 14% credit growth target for the remainder of 2019. We expect the SBV to continue managing financial stability risks through loan directives and macro-prudential measures.

At Fitch Solutions, we maintain our forecast for Vietnam's fiscal deficit to remain wide at 5.7% in 2019, following a revised 5.9% fiscal deficit recorded in 2018. We continue to expect Vietnam's open-door trade policy and the slow progress of state-owned entity divestment to pressure revenue collection. However, falling yields of newly issued government securities will likely help to ease the upside pressure on expenditures from interest payments.

We continue to expect the Vietnamese dong to remain broadly stable against the greenback over the near term, supported by robust foreign direct investment inflows and foreign borrowing by domestic banks. Over the longer term, we maintain our view for the dong to remain on a gradual depreciatory path against the US dollar, due to its overvaluation and Vietnam's higher inflation vis-a-vis the US. In light of the VND stability over H119, we are revising our forecasts for the unit to average VND23,300/USD in 2019 and VND23,475/USD in 2020, from VND23,440/USD and VND23,850/USD previously.

At Fitch Solutions, we see a continuation of tensions in the South China Sea between Vietnam and China. We expect disputes to persist as long as China continues to occupy the Paracel Islands, which Vietnam also claims as its own. Disputes are likely to continue taking the form of China pressurising Vietnam to halt its drilling projects in these waters, as well as disagreements between Vietnamese fishermen and Chinese authorities.

Key Risks:

The potential for renewed maritime dispute with China poses downside risks to Vietnam's otherwise stable short-term political outlook.

Should the Trump administration introduce fresh tariffs on US imports of Vietnamese goods, this would pose a salient risk to Vietnam's export sector, and consequently our economic growth forecast, given the sector's strong orientation to the US economy.

Economic policy slippages could dent investor confidence, and result in a slowdown in foreign direct investment inflows and manufacturing growth.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Growth To Remain Under Pressure In 2019
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Interest Rates To Remain On Hold Through 2019
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Fiscal Deficit To Remain Wide On Lower Tariffs And SOE Divestment Delay
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES, 2016
  • Currency Forecast
  • Vietnamese Dong To Remain Steady Over The Near Term
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • Vietnam Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Vietnamese Economy To 2028
  • A New Focus On Quality Growth
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Vietnam-China Tensions To Persist In The South China Sea
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Key Political Challenges Over The Coming Decade
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Global Growth Deceleration, But Policy Increasingly Supportive
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: VIETNAM - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
Back to Top