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年間契約型資訊服務

國家風險評估報告 - 越南

Vietnam Country Risk Report

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品編碼 177811
出版日期 年間契約型資訊服務 內容資訊 英文 63 Pages
價格
國家風險評估報告 - 越南 Vietnam Country Risk Report
出版日期: 年間契約型資訊服務內容資訊: 英文 63 Pages
簡介

越南經濟在2018年成長7.1%,但是其市場開放性與對外資的依賴增加,暗示越南無法逃離日漸升高的貿易保護主義與世界性經濟成長遲緩的影響。製造業會成為帶領越南經濟成長的主要力量。2019年,越南的實質GDP成長率預計將減低至6.5%,但在整體區域會是經濟成長最快速的國家之一。越南國家銀行(SBV)計畫在2019年進一步強化金融政策。越南盾受到穩健對外直接投資的流入、健全的經常收支、中央銀行的積極性介入所支持,目前對美元匯率穩定,但是預計會因實質有效匯率和高度通貨膨脹緩緩下降。外交方面,預測越南會強化和俄國在經濟及軍事上的合作。俄國經濟由於西方各國的經濟制裁而受到打擊,俄國計畫對越南等東南亞國家的出口多元化。

本報告調查了越南的國家風險,並統整了針對政經風險概要、SWOT分析、經濟成長預測與趨勢、金融政策、市場預測、國內外政治情勢等資訊。

目錄

執行摘要

  • 核心總覽
  • 主要預測變更點
  • 主要風險
  • 國家風險概要
  • 經濟風險指數
  • 政治風險指數
  • SWOT分析
  • 經濟 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 經濟預測
  • 經濟成長預測
  • 雖然有成長遲緩的可能性,但越南依舊保持在地區的優勢
  • 預測支出別GDP
  • 外部Position預測
  • 金融政策
  • 國家銀行在2019年優先穩定總體經濟
  • 金融政策框架
  • 財政政策與公債預測
  • 2019年,越南財政赤字擴大的可能性很高
  • 結構性財政Position
  • 本報告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research發表,並不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。報告中的評論和資料,都是僅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及獨立資訊來源所獲得。Fitch Ratings的分析師並未與Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享資料。
  • 越南盾的短期穩定
  • 10年預測
  • 到2028年為止的越南經濟
  • 有品質成長的新焦點
  • 政治預測
  • 國內政治
  • 越南與俄國2國關係的進一步強化
  • 長期政治預測
  • 權力獨佔不可能持續
  • 運用風險
  • 紛爭風險
  • 交通網
  • 世界總體趨勢
  • 成長負面風險
  • 索引表
目錄
Product Code: CFVN_20201001

Vietnam's real GDP growth slowed to 0.4% y-o-y in Q220, from 3.7% y-o-y in Q120, dragged down by a sharp slowdown in manufacturing growth and a contraction in the services industry, bringing H120 growth to 1.8% y-o-y. Given that Vietnam appears to have contained the Covid-19 outbreak domestically, we expect its economy to recover over H220, and as such, have revised up our 2020 real GDP growth forecast to 3.0%, from 2.8% previously. We expect the recovery to be mostly driven by a resumption of manufacturing activity and some recovery in retail, hospitality, and transport and warehousing services given that movement restrictions have been eased since May.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Vietnam's Economy Set For A Limited H220 Recovery
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • More Monetary Easing Measures Still To Come In Vietnam
    • TABLE: OTHER INTEREST RATE CHANGES ANNOUNCED ON MAY 12
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Tax Relief Stimulus Approach To Widen Vietnam's Fiscal Deficit In 2020
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • Vietnamese Dong In Calm Waters
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Vietnam Country Risk Q4 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Vietnamese Economy To 2029
  • A New Focus On Quality Growth
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Assessing The Candidates For Vietnam's 2021 Leadership Reshuffle
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
    • TABLE: OTHER CANDIDATES
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Key Political Challenges Over The Coming Decade
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Economic Rebound Gathers Pace, But Second Wave Of Lay-Offs Possible
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: VIETNAM - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS