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年間契約型資訊服務

國家風險報告 - 新加坡

Singapore Country Risk Report

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品編碼 177803
出版日期 年間契約型資訊服務 內容資訊 英文 61 Pages
價格
國家風險報告 - 新加坡 Singapore Country Risk Report
出版日期: 年間契約型資訊服務內容資訊: 英文 61 Pages
簡介

主要觀察

被稱為新加坡「第4世代」的領導人顯現出將出任更大領導角色的跡象。在強烈的反對聲浪中,相信下一代的領導人將較前任面對更多挑戰。然而,由於第三代領導人不太可能從政治舞台上消失,預估整體新加坡政治情勢將持穩定狀態。外交政策方面,因為新加坡與馬來西亞之間的新舊課題重燃,預估兩國將保持冷淡的關係。新加坡經濟由於持續的貿易紛爭、國內建築產業疲軟、個人消費低迷等因素,預估未來幾個季度將會降溫エ。政府在財政方面展現謹慎的姿勢,為了因應人口老齡化等結構性轉變的支出增加,已規劃了未來數年的GTS稅收增收。

主要風險

僅管新加坡的基本面良好,由於中國經濟的快速放緩等帶來的外部需求疲軟和國內經濟重組,可能會導致未來幾個季度的技術性衰退。

目錄

摘要整理

  • 核心觀點
  • 主要預測變化
  • 主要風險
  • 國家風險概要
  • 經濟風險指數
  • 政治風險指數
  • SWOT分析
  • 經濟 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 經濟展望
  • 經濟成長展望
  • 隨者全球逆風高昇,2019年新加坡成長將進一步疲軟
  • GDP展望:按支出
  • 外部情勢展望
  • 貨幣政策
  • 對外展望的軟弱成為新加坡金融管理當局的緊縮課題
  • 貨幣政策框架
  • 財政政策及公債展望
  • 新加坡為減輕對外風險的財政政策放鬆
  • 結構性財政情況
  • 貨幣預測
  • 僅管貿易存在不確定性,但強健的宏觀基礎支持著新加坡元
  • 本報告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research發佈,並非Fitch Ratings的信用評級。報告中的評論及數據來自Fitch Solutions Macro Research和獨立情報來源。Fitch Ratings的分析師並未和Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享資料。
  • 2028年前的新加坡經濟
  • 2028年前的穩定成長軌跡
  • 政治展望
  • 國內政治
  • 海上及空域爭端促使新加坡和馬來西亞的兩國關係惡化
  • 長期政治展望
  • 預估未來10年政治自由化可能降緩
  • 操作風險
  • 衝突風險
  • 運輸網路
  • 全球宏觀展望
  • 成長下行風險
  • 索引表
目錄
Product Code: CFSG_20201001

We at Fitch Solutions continue to forecast real GDP growth of -2.8% in 2020. Singapore's economy has bottomed in Q220 with a record 12.6% y-o-y contraction in our view, and a likely continued reopening of both the local and global economies will help drive domestic and external demand over the remaining quarters of 2020. While economic fundamentals are only weakly improving and any recovery subject to myriad and severe downside risks, including a second wave of infections, Singapore's vast fiscal resources will act as a stabiliser in the event of any further external shock.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Worst Is Likely Over For Singapore Economy In 2020
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • External Trade And Investment Outlook
  • Singapore Current Account On Track For Smallest Surplus In Decades
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS
    • TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • Monetary Policy
  • Monetary Authority Of Singapore To Wait And See For The Rest Of 2020
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE SOURCES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • Singapore Dollar To Stabilise Along With Covid-19 Caseload
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Singapore Country Risk Q4 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Singaporean Economy To 2029
  • Solid Growth Trajectory To 2029
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • 13th General Election Indicate Maturing Opposition In Singapore
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Economic Rebound Gathers Pace, But Second Wave Of Lay-Offs Possible
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: SINGAPORE - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS