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市場調查報告書

國家風險報告 - 新加坡

Singapore Country Risk Report Q2 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品編碼 177803
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 65 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
價格
國家風險報告 - 新加坡 Singapore Country Risk Report Q2 2020
出版日期: 2020年02月21日內容資訊: 英文 65 Pages
簡介

主要觀察

被稱為新加坡「第4世代」的領導人顯現出將出任更大領導角色的跡象。在強烈的反對聲浪中,相信下一代的領導人將較前任面對更多挑戰。然而,由於第三代領導人不太可能從政治舞台上消失,預估整體新加坡政治情勢將持穩定狀態。外交政策方面,因為新加坡與馬來西亞之間的新舊課題重燃,預估兩國將保持冷淡的關係。新加坡經濟由於持續的貿易紛爭、國內建築產業疲軟、個人消費低迷等因素,預估未來幾個季度將會降溫エ。政府在財政方面展現謹慎的姿勢,為了因應人口老齡化等結構性轉變的支出增加,已規劃了未來數年的GTS稅收增收。

主要風險

僅管新加坡的基本面良好,由於中國經濟的快速放緩等帶來的外部需求疲軟和國內經濟重組,可能會導致未來幾個季度的技術性衰退。

目錄

摘要整理

  • 核心觀點
  • 主要預測變化
  • 主要風險
  • 國家風險概要
  • 經濟風險指數
  • 政治風險指數
  • SWOT分析
  • 經濟 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 經濟展望
  • 經濟成長展望
  • 隨者全球逆風高昇,2019年新加坡成長將進一步疲軟
  • GDP展望:按支出
  • 外部情勢展望
  • 貨幣政策
  • 對外展望的軟弱成為新加坡金融管理當局的緊縮課題
  • 貨幣政策框架
  • 財政政策及公債展望
  • 新加坡為減輕對外風險的財政政策放鬆
  • 結構性財政情況
  • 貨幣預測
  • 僅管貿易存在不確定性,但強健的宏觀基礎支持著新加坡元
  • 本報告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research發佈,並非Fitch Ratings的信用評級。報告中的評論及數據來自Fitch Solutions Macro Research和獨立情報來源。Fitch Ratings的分析師並未和Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享資料。
  • 2028年前的新加坡經濟
  • 2028年前的穩定成長軌跡
  • 政治展望
  • 國內政治
  • 海上及空域爭端促使新加坡和馬來西亞的兩國關係惡化
  • 長期政治展望
  • 預估未來10年政治自由化可能降緩
  • 操作風險
  • 衝突風險
  • 運輸網路
  • 全球宏觀展望
  • 成長下行風險
  • 索引表

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄
Product Code: CFSG_20200401

Our 2020 real GDP growth forecast remains at 1.7%, up from 0.7% growth in 2019. Manufacturing will likely continue to drag heavily on the economy in

2020, as the external environment remains highly uncertain despite the 'phase-one' trade deal. We see fixed investment remaining steady due to ongoing

public infrastructure projects and low base effects. An extended crisis in Hong Kong could bring further benefits should businesses act on contingency

plans and relocate.

We continue to expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore to maintain its easing stance in 2020. We expect the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak to

pose further downside risks to an economy that narrowly avoided a technical recession in 2019, which would strengthen the case for more easing to support

the economy, especially the export-oriented manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, inflation is likely to remain at near the 0.6% y-o-y average seen in 2019, given

the rough balance of rising food price pressures and a softer outlook for oil prices.

We at Fitch Solutions maintain our primary budget deficit forecast at 2.2% of GDP for 2020 but see a possible range of revision to between 2.3-2.6% of GDP

over the coming months. This is because of the downside risks to the economy posed by the coronavirus outbreak, which already has 18 confirmed cases in

Singapore as of February 3. Singapore's free and open economy will likely be negatively affected by the economic slowdown the virus is likely to cause in China,

and is exposed to further downside risk from the potential for community outbreaks to occur in other countries. A slower economy would weigh further on

revenues, while the government is likely to implement an even more expansionary budget to counteract the negative shock from the virus and both dynamics

would widen the primary deficit. We await a better understanding of the virus' transmission mechanisms before making a revision.

We at Fitch Solutions have revised our 2020 and 2021 average exchange rate forecasts to SGD1.3850/USD and SGD1.3750/USD respectively, from SGD1.3750/

USD and SGD1.3600/USD previously. The likely downside to the Singapore economy from the coronavirus outbreak in China means that the case for monetary

easing is strengthened, leading to short-term depreciatory pressures as markets price in a higher likelihood of easing. We still hold a more optimistic outlook for

2021, by which time a vaccine for the coronavirus is likely to be commercially available, which would reduce the disruption even if there are still cases around

the world. Prospects for a comprehensive and lasting resolution to the US-China trade war are also better.

We at Fitch Solutions see longer-term risks to Singapore's ability to maintain a free and open economy as growth slows along with a maturing economy and

a more protectionist political mood taking hold around the world. These risks are heightened by the nativist appeal mounted and likely to be maintained

by the opposition, which seeks to build on the strategy's success during the 2011 General Election. Even fair and judicious application of the fake news law,

Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act or POFMA as it is formally known, could backfire in a less favourable economic environment, leading

to perceptions of a cover-up that would put open economic policies at further risk.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our 2020 average currency forecast to SGD1.3850/USD from SGD1.3750/USD previously.

Key Risks

The risk of a technical recession has risen in Singapore after two quarters of sluggish economic growth and which could be precipitated by a more pronounced

Chinese economic slowdown amid the outbreak of the coronavirus.

Singapore Country Risk Q2 2020fitchsolutions.com

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • 2020 To See Slight Economic Recovery
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS
    • TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • Monetary Policy
  • Coronavirus Strengthens Case For Monetary Easing In 2020
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Coronavirus Woes To Widen Primary Deficit In 2020
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE SOURCES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Singapore Country Risk Q2 2020ContentsCurrency Forecast
  • Coronavirus Puts Singapore Dollar On Even Weaker 2020 Footing
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Singaporean Economy To 2029
  • Solid Growth Trajectory To 2029
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Rising Nativist Sentiment Could Undermine Singapore's Business Environment
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Political Liberalisation Likely To Be Slow Over Next Decade
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Conflict Risk
    • TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS
    • TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
    • TABLE: MAJOR INTERSTATE CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
    • TABLE: MILITARY PROFILE AND DEFENCE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISK
  • Transport Network
    • TABLE: ROAD RISKS
    • TABLE: RAIL RISKS
    • TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAY RISKS
    • TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Economic Stabilisation Continues And Inflation Picking Up Slowly
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: SINGAPORE - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS