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國家風險報告 - 新加坡

Singapore Country Risk Report Q4 2019

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品編碼 177803
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 57 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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國家風險報告 - 新加坡 Singapore Country Risk Report Q4 2019
出版日期: 2019年08月21日內容資訊: 英文 57 Pages
簡介

主要觀察

被稱為新加坡「第4世代」的領導人顯現出將出任更大領導角色的跡象。在強烈的反對聲浪中,相信下一代的領導人將較前任面對更多挑戰。然而,由於第三代領導人不太可能從政治舞台上消失,預估整體新加坡政治情勢將持穩定狀態。外交政策方面,因為新加坡與馬來西亞之間的新舊課題重燃,預估兩國將保持冷淡的關係。新加坡經濟由於持續的貿易紛爭、國內建築產業疲軟、個人消費低迷等因素,預估未來幾個季度將會降溫エ。政府在財政方面展現謹慎的姿勢,為了因應人口老齡化等結構性轉變的支出增加,已規劃了未來數年的GTS稅收增收。

主要風險

僅管新加坡的基本面良好,由於中國經濟的快速放緩等帶來的外部需求疲軟和國內經濟重組,可能會導致未來幾個季度的技術性衰退。

目錄

摘要整理

  • 核心觀點
  • 主要預測變化
  • 主要風險
  • 國家風險概要
  • 經濟風險指數
  • 政治風險指數
  • SWOT分析
  • 經濟 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 經濟展望
  • 經濟成長展望
  • 隨者全球逆風高昇,2019年新加坡成長將進一步疲軟
  • GDP展望:按支出
  • 外部情勢展望
  • 貨幣政策
  • 對外展望的軟弱成為新加坡金融管理當局的緊縮課題
  • 貨幣政策框架
  • 財政政策及公債展望
  • 新加坡為減輕對外風險的財政政策放鬆
  • 結構性財政情況
  • 貨幣預測
  • 僅管貿易存在不確定性,但強健的宏觀基礎支持著新加坡元
  • 本報告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research發佈,並非Fitch Ratings的信用評級。報告中的評論及數據來自Fitch Solutions Macro Research和獨立情報來源。Fitch Ratings的分析師並未和Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享資料。
  • 2028年前的新加坡經濟
  • 2028年前的穩定成長軌跡
  • 政治展望
  • 國內政治
  • 海上及空域爭端促使新加坡和馬來西亞的兩國關係惡化
  • 長期政治展望
  • 預估未來10年政治自由化可能降緩
  • 操作風險
  • 衝突風險
  • 運輸網路
  • 全球宏觀展望
  • 成長下行風險
  • 索引表

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄
Product Code: CFSG_20191001

In light of a weak economic performance in H119, which saw growth contracting in Q219, we have revised our growth forecast for 2019 to 0.9%, from 2.2% previously. The threat of a technical recession is now more pronounced, but we believe that the government and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) have room to implement policies to support growth in the second part of the year. This could cushion the slowdown in domestic demand, but the external sector will remain a wild card as a US-China trade deal is far from certain, despite the recent apparent thawing of relations between the two countries.

Following a dismal GDP growth print in Q219, we expect the MAS to reduce the slope of the S$NEER band during its October biannual policy meeting. Downside risk to growth still loom large over Singapore, both externally and domestically. Weak external demand is the main reason underpinning our view for MAS to act in October. Our view is also informed by our expectations for inflationary pressure to remain mild, which will not constrain the MAS in easing monetary policy.

We maintain our view that Singapore will register an overall fiscal deficit representing 0.4% of GDP in FY2019/20, narrower than the Ministry of Finance's forecast of -0.7% of GDP. The steady collection of revenue during the first five months of 2019 suggests that Singapore will likely beat its revenue target for FY20 despite the ongoing economic slowdown. Downside risk to our view remains as expenditure could rise more than expected to offset the downside risk to growth.

We expect the Singapore dollar to come under mild downward pressure against the US dollar as market participants increasingly price in a likely easing by MAS in October. Over the long-term horizon, the SGD is likely to stabilise on the back of an improvement of the external sector. We have thus revised our forecasts with the Singapore dollar to average SGD1.3650/USD in 2019 and SGD1.3500/USD in 2020.

Major Forecast Changes:

We have revised our real GDP growth forecast to 0.9% in 2019, down from 2.2% previously, in light of a weak start to the year. We have revised our currency forecasts with the Singapore dollar to average SGD1.3650/USD in 2019 as market participants increasingly price in a likely easing by MAS in October.

Key Risks:

The risk of a technical recession has risen in Singapore after growth contracted in Q219 amid weak external demand (led by a rapidly slowing Chinese economy) and a sluggish domestic economy.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Singapore Has Several Options To Contain Threat Of Technical Recession
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS
    • TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Rising Prospects Of Monetary Policy Easing In Singapore
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Singapore On Track To Beat Budget Estimates
    • TABLE: OPERATING REVENUE (SGDMN)
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE SOURCES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Singapore Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsCurrency Forecast
  • Singapore's MAS Likely Easing To Weaken SGD In Short Term
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Singaporean Economy To 2028
  • Solid Growth Trajectory To 2028
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Concerns Over The Application Of Singapore's 'Fake News' Law
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
    • TABLE: 2019 WORLD PRESS FREEDOM INDEX
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Political Liberalisation Likely To Be Slow Over Next Decade
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Global Growth Deceleration, But Policy Increasingly Supportive
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: SINGAPORE - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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