表紙
市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1023601

30 家汽車製造商的自動駕駛路線圖(至 2025 年)

30 Carmakers Roadmaps in Automated Driving by 2025

出版日期: | 出版商: Auto2x Ltd | Automotive Intelligence Consulting | 英文 190 Pages; 163 Tables & Graphs | 商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內

價格
  • 全貌
  • 簡介
  • 目錄
簡介

本報告概述了全球 30 家主要汽車製造商 (OEM) 的 ADAS(高級駕駛輔助系統)和自動駕駛 (AD) 產品組合,以及自動駕駛汽車實際應用的戰略發展狀況。未來各個自動化級別(L0 到 L5)的實際應用前景、當前的技術問題、解決問題的商業模式,並為主要 OEM 引入 L2 到 L5 提供了技術路線圖。

主要汽車製造商實際應用自動駕駛的路線圖和策略

到2025年將在歐洲提供Level 3自動駕駛能力的車型數量

目錄

第一章自動駕駛普及趨勢(2016-21)(第21頁)

  • 駕駛支持系統將迅速普及,但引入時的技術和經濟問題仍未解決。
    • 法規推遲了向 "有條件關注" 的過渡。
    • 德國的競爭優勢:延遲更新第 3 級法規造成阻礙
    • 部分自動化的模型可用性:2018 年幾乎翻了一番
    • 2 級功能:擴展到整個汽車產品線以進入緊湊型汽車細分市場
    • 增加 ADAS 內容:縮小技術差距以實現更高的自主性
  • SAE Level 2 在歐洲的實際應用(2016-2020):主要 OEM 中 TJA/SP/RP 的可用性
    • 歐洲L2-D實際情況(2016-2020):擁堵駕駛支持(TJA)的可用性
    • L2-D 技術對比:速度、變道、動手檢測、車道停止和命名策略
  • 歐洲的 L2-P 事實(2016-2020 年):自助停車和遠程停車的可用性
    • L2 在歐洲汽車銷售中的滲透率(2016-2020)
    • L2 OEM 排名:領導者和追隨者 (2017/2018)
  • 歐洲 SAE 1 級的現狀(2016-2019 年):ACC/AEB CUI/PA/LKA 在 OEM 上的可用性
  • 歐洲 0 級外顯率(2016-2019):BSM/DDM/FCW/LDW/TSR
    • 前6名豪華車主機廠中ADAS L0/L1功能的產品名稱
  • 主要的自動駕駛/AMoD 測試操作(2019-2020):誰將測試什麼以及在哪裡
  • 3 級(有條件自動駕駛):對 HMI(人機界面)的影響

第 2 章與引入 L3-L4 相關的法規、工程和其他問題(第 17 頁)

  • 法規為何阻礙自動駕駛發展
  • 主要地區自動駕駛(AD)的監管和法律狀況:概覽(2018-2019)
  • Reg.79 的修訂:轉向系統支持在歐洲部署 L3
    • 目前,ADAS 只是輔助功能,始終需要手動車輪操作。
    • Reg.79 修正:自動轉向系統的重要步驟
    • UNECE Reg.79 修正案:三個問題
  • 美國通過 FAVP 為 HAV 鋪平了道路
    • 美國 AV 測試現狀 (2016/2017)
    • 對美國政府自動駕駛汽車政策的擔憂
  • L3 自動駕駛:從 2017 年秋季開始在德國合法化
  • AD 監管對 L3 部署的影響
  • 與引入 AD 等重要因素相關的技術問題
  • L3 職責和 AD 事件數據記錄員角色
  • 車輛網絡安全:汽車製造商的首要任務
    • 加強主要市場的 OEM/監管活動
    • 保護聯網汽車所需的條件

第 3 章 OEM Tier 1 自動駕駛實際使用策略(第 9 頁)

  • 實現高度自動化駕駛的漸進/突破性方法
  • 構建您自己的 ADS 平台或協作
    • L3-5 平台/AMoD/高清地圖聯盟
    • 為什麼主要 ADAS 供應商選擇合適的位置來通過 ADAS 增長獲利
  • 個性化陽光的數字化和新出行服務的開啟
  • L4/5 實際使用的用例和商業模型
    • 移動即服務 (MaaS)

第 4 章從支持到自治:主要 OEM 的 L2-L4 路線圖(第 22 頁)

  • L2-L4 駕駛/停車路線圖概覽:OEM,初始實施階段
  • 自動駕駛技術路線圖:主要 ADAS 功能和傳感器組
    • L4 路線圖差異:乘用車和機器人出租車
  • 歐洲、美國和中國 L2-D 到 L4 駕駛功能的總銷量預測(2013-2025)
    • 2 級自動駕駛綜合預測:歐洲、美國、中國(2013-2025)
    • 綜合 3 級自動駕駛汽車的銷售預測(到 2025 年)
    • 哪個區域會導致3級發展
    • 配備 4 級驅動系統的汽車和 LV 的總銷量(至 2025 年)
  • 歐洲自動駕駛預測(至 2025 年):駕駛和停車功能
    • 歐洲 AD 駕駛功能路線圖:L2-D-L4-D
    • 歐洲汽車銷售市場份額:按自動化水平(2015-2025)
    • EuroNCAP 對 2025 年路線圖的影響(2025 年)
    • 歐洲汽車銷售部分自動化(L2-D)預測(2013-2025)
    • 歐洲汽車銷售條件自動化 (L3-D) 預測(2018-2025)
    • 歐洲 L4-D 銷售預測(2018-2025)
    • 歐洲 AD 停車路線圖:L2-P 到 L4-P
  • 美國自動駕駛:駕駛功能預測(至 2025 年)
    • 美國小型車(LV)銷量及滲透率:Level 2 to L4 by drive function (2013/2025)
    • 美國小型車銷量:L2-D功能(2013-2025)
    • 美國小型車銷量:L3-D功能(2025年之前)
    • 美國小型車銷量:L4-D功能(2013-2025)
  • 中國自動駕駛市場預測:按L2-D到L4的駕駛功能(2013-2021)
  • 乘用車 LiDAR 預測(至 2030 年)

主要 OEM 的第 5 章 ADAS/AD 產品組合和路線圖(第 48 頁)

  • ADAS 功能可用性:型號範圍和傳感器組
  • 自動駕駛展望:產品路線圖和車型系列,按 AD 級別(2016-2025)
    • Alfa Romeo
    • Audi
    • BAIC
    • Bentley
    • BMW
    • BYD
    • Cadillac
    • Changan
    • FCA: Fiat, Jeep, Maserati
    • Ford
    • General Motors: Cadillac
    • Geely
    • Genesis
    • Great Wall
    • Honda & Acura
    • Hyundai
    • Infinity
    • Jaguar Land Rover
    • Jeep
    • Lexus
    • Mercedes-Benz
    • Mini
    • Nissan
    • Porsche
    • PSA
    • Renault & Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance
    • SAIC
    • Seat
    • Skoda
    • Subaru
    • Tesla
    • Toyota
    • Volvo
    • VW

第 6 章附錄(第 8 頁)

  • 其他 OEM 自動駕駛路線圖:支持信息
  • 模型在歐洲的可用性:按自動化水平(2015-2025)
    • 帶駕駛功能的Level 2車型:歐洲(2015-2025)
    • 帶停車功能的2級車型:歐洲(2015-2025)
    • 帶駕駛功能的Level 3車型:歐洲(2015-2025)
    • 帶駕駛功能的Level 4車型:歐洲(2015-2025)
目錄

This 50,000-word report examines the current status of autonomous vehicle deployment including the ADAS&AD portfolio of 30 leading brands, the engineering and regulatory challenges for high levels of autonomy and the business models to overcome them. Finally, we provide a technological roadmap for the introduction of L2-5 by leading OEM.

Leading carmakers' roadmap and strategy to commercialize Automated Driving

2021 will see regulation finally allowing the introduction of LEVEL 3 Automated Driving technology that allows drivers to take their "eyes-off" the road under specific conditions

In June 2020, regulators announced that the UNECE regulation on Automated Lane Keep Systems will allow Level 3 deployment in countries such as Japan, France, and Germany among other European countries, probably China from January 2021 - but not the USA.

The new regulation comes almost 3 years after ongoing technical discussions about "automated steering" requirements. The delay has greatly affected the Automated Driving strategies of carmakers.

However, technologically, Audi was the first carmaker to announce technological capabilities for the transition from Partially-automated cars (SAE L2), where drivers are in complete control with ADAS being purely assistive for safety and convenience, to Conditionally-automated ones (Level 3). Audi was the first carmaker to introduce a L3-Driving feature, the AI Traffic-Jam Pilot in the 2018MY A8. However, Audi has still not deployed the feature because they have not been granted regulatory approval. This means that the introduction of "eyes-off-the road" technology in Europe was delayed to mid-to-end 2021.

No of models offering Level 3 automated driving
features in Europe by 2025

In Level 3, the driver can take over the driving and monitoring task under specific scenarios allowing the driver to be "distracted".

But the driver will still be the ultimate back-up and must remain "available" to regain control within a few seconds of the takeover request.

Nissan's Pro-Pilot 2 available only in the Skyline in Japan, fits the definition of a Level 3 system. Also, Tesla's Navigate on Autopilot in the USA could fit the definition. Automated Driving Regulation in the USA is different compared to Europe, Japan, and China with USA allowing more flexibility to carmakers to deploy L3 systems.

The differences in regulatory and legal framework across leading car markets could result in a lack of harmonization and requirements for design variants which could adversely impact manufacturers of Automated Driving Systems as well as the adoption of higher levels of vehicle autonomy.

Partially automated (L2) model offerings expand to the compact segment

At the same time, more carmakers are introducing L2 parking and driving capabilities and expand L2 feature availability across their model range. What's more important though is that L2 expands from premium large cars to the compact car segment.

This breakthrough is another indicator that ADAS are no longer the privilege of flagships, premium large cars and luxurious SUVs since regulations, consumer requirements and competition drive fitment of ADAS.

New entrants compete for a share in the new mobility era

Carmakers, Tier-1s, and new-entrants, such as tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo) and MNOs compete in the autonomous vehicle race to establish a winning portfolio or just remain competitive.

However, many of the engineering, regulatory/legal and ethical challenges for deployment of higher levels of autonomy remain unresolved.

Autonomous Driving regulation shifts from testing to deployment but harmonization will be a challenge

The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment in international regulations and national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistencies between what's legal?

  • What is the status of AD regulation in Europe and the U.S? What is the impact on L3 deployment?
  • Which geography presents the most favourable environment for deployment of Level 3?

Clear guidance on the safe and secure development, testing and deployment of AV technologies is necessary as well as harmonisation of homologation standards or vehicle certification in order to comply with safety standards.

A higher level of automation requires augmented sensor set, architecture and enhanced robustness

A Mobileye executive has recently described the challenge and complexity of launching SAE L4, i.e. Highly-autonomous cars which are equipped with chauffeur driving and valet parking features among others, with putting a man on the moon.

Further development in machine learning is required in the area of maps and image processing, to improve object recognition and subsequently decision-making in split-second timeframe. Tesla and Ford have announced developments in this area together with some leading Tier-1s.

  • How are carmakers forging their HW and SW portfolio to enable L3 and higher levels of automation?
  • How will this affect the mobility ecosystem and the supply chain?

New business models arise in the new era of smart mobility

The approval of L3 will allow greater utilisation of the time spent inside the car. As a result, new business models arise to monetise the new opportunities, e.g. in automotive insurance and in-vehicle infotainment. L4/fully-automated vehicles will revolutionise transportation and mobility leading to what we call Intelligent Mobility.

What this report delivers

This report focuses on leading car manufacturers' ADAS&AD portfolio, strategies and business models to transition towards full automation and self-driving cars. Moreover, it examines the regulatory landscape and other technical challenges and their implications on deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy.

Finally, we provide a technological roadmap for the introduction of L2-5 by leading OEM and a penetration forecast of cars equipped with different levels of autonomy over the next decade.

  • Learn about the status of vehicle automation between 2016 and 2019:
    • What is the availability of key ADAS features, such as AEB, TSR, ACC, LKA, TJA, in leading carmakers in Europe, US and China? We provide in depth segmentation by SAE Level;
    • What is the penetration rate of SAE Level 0, 1 and 2 in European car sales?
    • Which OEMs lead L2 deployment in 2017-19 and why?
    • What changes in 2019-20 in terms of deployment of L2 and L3?
  • Understand the regulatory and engineering challenges carmakers face for the deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy:
    • What is the status of Autonomous Driving regulation in major car markets?
    • What are the differences in the legal and regulatory framework in Europe and the United States and how this will affect L3-5 deployment?
    • Which geography presents the most favorable environment for deployment of Level 3?
    • What breakthroughs are required in the area of SW/HW and validation for L3-4?
  • Read how carmakers, Tier-1s and new-entrants, including tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo), plan to overcome the challenges and commercialize autonomous driving
    • How do leading OEMs plan to achieve L4/5 capabilities and when?
    • OEM strategy, new business models and key collaborations
    • Learn why leading Tier-1s are well positioned to monetize ADAS growth
  • Who will lead and who will follow in the autonomous vehicle race until 2025?
    • Discover when leading carmakers will launch capabilities of L2, L3, L4 and L5 segmented into Driving (L2-TJA vs L3-TJP) and Parking features (e.g. L2-Self Park, L4-Valet Parking)
    • What are the trends by ADAS levels in Top Premium OEMs' model range during 2016-25?
    • Learn about the penetration of different levels of autonomy in European car sales in 2021
    • Benchmark competition: strengths and weaknesses of ADAS&AD product portfolio, suppliers and competitiveness

Table of Contents

1. The status of Autonomous Driving deployment in 2016-21 (21 pages)

  • 1. The democratization of driver assistance systems accelerates fast but techno-economic deployment challenges persist
    • 1. Regulation is delaying the transition to "conditional eyes-off the road"
    • 2. Germany's competitive advantage hindered by slow Level 3 regulatory update
    • 3. Availability of Partially-automated models almost doubled in 2018
    • 4. Level 2 features expand across carlines reaching the compact segment
    • 5. ADAS content is increasing to bridge the technological gap for higher autonomy
  • 2. Commercialization status of SAE Level 2 in Europe 2016-20: TJA, SP and RP availability in leading OEMs
    • 1. L2-D status in Europe in 2016-20: Traffic Jam Assist (TJA) availability
    • 2. Comparison of L2-D tech: speeds, lane change, hands-on detection, stop-in-lane, and naming strategy
  • 3. L2-P status in Europe 2016-20: Self-park & Remote Parking availability
    • 4. L2 penetration in European car sales in 2016-20
    • 5. L2 OEM ranking in 2017 vs 2018: leaders & followers
  • 3. SAE Level 1 status in Europe in 2016-19: ACC, AEB CUI, PA & LKA availability in OEMs
  • 4. Level 0 penetration in Europe in 2016-19: BSM, DDM, FCW, LDW, and TSR
    • Marketing names for ADAS L0/L1 features in Top-6 Premium OEMs
  • 5. Major Automated Driving & AMoD pilots in 2019-20: who tests what and where
  • 6. The implications of Level 3-Conditionally automated driving to HMI

2. Regulatory, engineering and other challenges for the deployment of L3-L4 (17 pages)

  • 1. Read why regulation challenges Autonomous Driving deployment
  • 2. Overview of AD regulatory & legal status in key geographies in 2018-19
  • 3. The amendment of Reg.79-Steering equipment will allow L3 deployment in Europe
    • 1. Today ADAS are assistive and hands-on the wheel are always required
    • 2. Reg.79 amendment is the critical step towards self-steering systems
    • 3. Three concerns arising from the UNECE Reg.79's amendment
  • 4. The USA has opened up the road to HAVs with the FAVP
    • 1. State of AV testing in the United States in 2016/17
    • 2. Concern over U.S Federal Autonomous Vehicle Policy
  • 5. L3 automated driving to become legal in Germany from autumn 2017
  • 6. The impact of AD regulation on L3 deployment
  • 7. Technical challenges for deployment and other key factors affecting AD adoption
  • 8. Liability in L3 and the role of Event Data Recorders for AD
  • 9. Vehicle Cybersecurity becomes a top priority for carmakers
    • 1. OEM and regulatory activity heats-up in major car markets
    • 2. What is needed to secure Connected Cars

3. OEM-Tier 1 strategy to commercialize Autonomous Driving (9 pages)

  • 1. Incremental vs skip approach to reach Highly automated driving
  • 2. Building your own ADS platform vs collaboration
    • 1. Consortiums for L3-5 platforms, AMoD and HD maps
    • 2. Learn why leading ADAS Suppliers are well positioned to monetise ADAS growth
  • 3. Digitalisation unlocks personalisation & new mobility services
  • 4. Use cases and business models to commercialise L4/5
    • 1. Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS)

4. From Assisted to Autonomous: L2-L4 roadmap from leading OEMs (22 pages)

  • 1. Overview of L2-L4 Driving and Parking roadmap by OEM at the earliest implementation
  • 2. Automated Driving technology roadmap: key ADAS features and sensor set
    • The differences in roadmaps between L4 in passenger cars vs robotaxis
  • 3. Aggregate sales forecast by L2-D to L4-Driving features in Europe, USA, China 2013-2025
    • Aggregate Level 2-Driving forecast in EU, USA, and China between 2013 & 2025
    • Aggregate Level 3-Driving equipped car sales forecast up to 2025
    • Learn which geographies will lead to Level 3 deployment
    • Aggregate sales of cars & LVs equipped with Level 4-Driving systems by 2025
  • 4. European Automated Driving forecasts up to 2025: Driving vs Parking features
    • European AD roadmap for driving features: L2-D to L4-D
    • Market shares of European car sales by the level of automation during 2015-2025
    • The impact of EuroNCAP's 2025 roadmap
    • Partial automation (L2-D) forecast in European car sales 2013-25
    • Conditional automation (L3-D) forecast in European car sales 2018-25
    • European L4-D sales forecast 2018-25
    • European AD roadmap for parking features: L2-P to L4-P
  • 5. USA Automated Driving forecast for Driving features up to 2025
    • USA LV sales & penetration by Level 2 to L4 Driving features, 2013 and 2025
    • USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales with L2-D features between 2013 & 2025
    • USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales with L3-D features by 2025
    • USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales with L4-D features between 2013 & 2025
  • 6. China Automated Driving Forecast: L2-D to L4-Driving features 2013-2021
  • 7. Lidar forecast up to 2030 in passenger cars

5. ADAS&AD portfolio & roadmap by leading OEM (48 pages)

  • 1. ADAS feature availability in model range and sensor set
  • 2. Automated Driving outlook: product roadmap and model range by AD level 2016-2025
    • 1. Alfa Romeo
    • 2. Audi
    • 3. BAIC
    • 4. Bentley
    • 5. BMW
    • 6. BYD
    • 7. Cadillac
    • 8. Changan
    • 9. FCA: Fiat, Jeep, Maserati
    • 10. Ford
    • 11. General Motors: Cadillac
    • 12. Geely
    • 13. Genesis
    • 14. Great Wall
    • 15. Honda & Acura
    • 16. Hyundai
    • 17. Infinity
    • 18. Jaguar Land Rover
    • 19. Jeep
    • 20. Lexus
    • 21. Mercedes-Benz
    • 22. Mini
    • 23. Nissan
    • 24. Porsche
    • 25. PSA
    • 26. Renault & Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance
    • 27. SAIC
    • 28. Seat
    • 29. Skoda
    • 30. Subaru
    • 31. Tesla
    • 32. Toyota
    • 33. Volvo
    • 34. VW

6. Appendix (8 pages)

  • 1. Supporting information for other OEMs' Automated Driving roadmap.
  • 2. Model availability by level of automation in Europe, 2015-2025
    • 1. Models with Level 2-Driving features in Europe, 2015-2025
    • 2. Models with L2-Parking features in Europe up to 2021
    • 3. Models with Level 3-Driving features in Europe, 2015-2025
    • 4. Models with Level 4-Driving features in Europe, 2015-2025