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市場調查報告書

自動駕駛車的檢討:2027年

Autonomous vehicles to 2027: a detailed review

出版商 Autelligence 商品編碼 494524
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 197 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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自動駕駛車的檢討:2027年 Autonomous vehicles to 2027: a detailed review
出版日期: 2017年03月31日 內容資訊: 英文 197 Pages
簡介

本報告提供聯網汽車及自動駕駛車中日益複雜的連接性軟體的安全的相關調查,聯網汽車、自動駕駛的攻擊對象領域,共通的漏洞,法規、政策,現有的市場解決方案,新的解決方案,設計的安全等考察。

第1章 背景

  • 未來突然身邊
  • 陸上運輸的重組
  • 人口增加、都市化
  • 市場課題
  • 溫室效應氣體,自動駕駛,及大量運輸
  • 安全性、自動駕駛車
  • 技術
  • 結論

第2章 自動駕駛車 (AV) 技術

  • 簡介
  • AV技術概要
    • 架構
    • 功能塊
  • 自動駕駛車的駕駛 & 乘車
    • 駕駛者的疏忽大意/注意散漫
    • 情境察覺
    • HMI (人機介面)
  • 技術藍圖

第3章 對自動駕駛車的法規 & 各國家政策

  • 歐洲
    • 德國
    • 英國
    • 法國
    • 荷蘭
    • 瑞典
    • 西班牙
    • 芬蘭
    • 義大利
    • 美國
    • 加拿大
    • 中國
    • 韓國
    • 日本
  • 其他
    • 新加坡
    • 台灣
    • 澳洲
  • 圖表

第4章 汽車產業結構的影響

  • 簡介
  • 汽車OEM的地位
  • OEM的收購、投資
  • 舊的OEM轉換到承包製造?
  • 新興企業
  • 現有的第1等級供應商
  • 子系統、非汽車供應商
  • 結論
  • 圖表

第5章 轉移到新的運輸部門

  • 簡介
  • AV技術的普及
  • 潛在的AV技術的優點出現了嗎?
  • 購買,擁有,及維修的模式怎麼變化?
  • 在AV上得到利益的是誰?
  • 結論

參考資料

圖表

目錄

In-depth analysis of the impact of autonomous driving on the automotive industry: business models, regulation, technology, industry restructuring, forecasts for adoption.

“The new world will be defined by automated driving, in the future it will be an everyday feature of our life and it will completely change mobility” - Herbert Diess, Chairman of the Board of Management of Volkswagen.

Within a seemingly impossibly short time frame, not only the concept of autonomous cars but actual deployment of autonomous technology on the road has gone from blue sky theory almost to everyday reality. The automotive industry is faced with radical and deep-rooted change.

Based on extensive primary and secondary research and original surveys, “Autonomous vehicles to 2027” seeks to make sense of developments by breaking them down into their key parts, analysing the impact of each area, and pulling everything together to provide an assessment of the real significance of developments.

Report section overview

  • 1. Context: development factors, market, end user, environmental and societal developments & changes, timing and speed of technology take-up
  • 2. Technology: developments in hardware, software, engineering and communication technology, technology roadmap 2017 to 2030
  • 3. Regional trends: national and regional policy in North America, Europe, Asia and elsewhere
  • 4. The industry: impact of context, technology and regional trends on the automotive industry, including finance, product development, research and partnerships in relation to traditional OEMs, suppliers and new/start-up entrant businesses.
  • 5. Outlook: the AV industry and market out to 2027

Key issues covered

  • Business models and the new personal transport ecosystem - the auto industry as part of the new transportation system, ride-sharing, ownership models, services, incremental or disruptive
  • Regulation, risk and litigation - machine morality, liability, legislation, safety
  • The technical evolution of the autonomous car - enabling the next level of ADAS, safety, technology
  • Roadmap to autonomous driving - global development of research and innovation projects, state level initiatives
  • Enabling technology - power, communication, network design, software, sensors (clusters, modules, sensor fusion), HMI, mapping
  • Keys to success - value chain development, powertrain, chassis sytems, interior, exterior
  • Potential for industry restructuring - the auto industry now, recent changes in transportation, new entrants and start-ups, OEM and supplier initiatives, integrating the old with the new
  • Forecast for adoption - driving factors, projected adoption by region, risks
  • Structure of the self-driving car industry

Why should you buy this report?

  • Get an integrated view of how autonomous driving will change automotive, mobility, insurance and technology
  • Find out how the industry's structure is likely to change, and understand where your company fits into it
  • Assess current technology and understand the companies delivering it
  • Understand where autonomous driving is now, where it is likely to go, and how fast it is likely to move
  • Stay up to date: The report includes quarterly updates of development in autonomous driving completed, analysed and written by the report author team, and access to our database of self-driving car related announcements, updated weekly by our team.

Methodology

  • Primary research and analysis: Academic or commercially available literature, conference presentations at events throughout 2015 and 2016, original Autelligence survey of automotive executives on their view of how autonomous driving will shape the industry and their company
  • Secondary research: Extensive researching and synthesizing of company data, model launches, technology initiatives, strategic analysis of leading companies in the sector

Table of Contents

Introduction

  • They're Everywhere
  • Definitions of Autonomous Driving
  • Approaches to Autonomous Driving
    • Google
    • Nissan
    • Tesla
  • Analysing & Assessing Autonomous Driving Developments

Chapter 1: Context

  • 1. The future suddenly seems a lot closer
  • 2. Restructuring Surface Transport
  • 3. Population Growth and Urbanisation
  • 4. Market Issues
  • 5. Greenhouse emissions, Self-driving and Mass Transit
  • 6. Safety and Autonomous Vehicles
  • 7. The Technology
    • Evolution versus Revolution
      • The ‘Traditional' Approach
      • The New Players' Approach
    • Technology Development
    • OEM Technology Announcements
  • 8. Some Conclusions

Chapter 2: Autonomous Vehicle (AV) Technology

  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. AV Technology Overview
    • Architecture
    • Functional Blocks
      • 1. Perception
      • 2. Decision-Making
      • 3. Manoeuvring
  • 3. Driving & Riding in an Autonomous Vehicle
    • Driver Inattention/Distraction
    • Situational Awareness
    • The Human Machine Interface
      • Monitoring the Occupants
      • Augmented Reality
      • HMI - Information Overload?
  • 4. A Technology Roadmap: 2017 to 2030

Chapter 3: Regional & Country Policies on Autonomous Vehicles

  • 1. Europe
    • Germany
      • 1. The FMTDI Automated Driving Round Table
      • 2. The Digital Autobahn Test Zone
      • 3. The UR:BAN Project - Urban Space
      • 4. Autonomous Commercial Vehicles
      • 5. Digital Infrastructure Initiatives
      • 6. AV Policy Initiatives
      • 7. Standardisation
    • United Kingdom
      • 1. AV Testbed Projects
      • 2. Real-world Testing of AV Technology
      • 3. AV Research & Development Funding
      • 4. AV Policy Initiatives
    • France
      • 1. New Industrial France
      • 2. AV Roadmap
      • 3. AV Test Policy
      • 4. Conference of Parties on Climate Change
    • Netherlands
      • 1. Dutch Initiative for Smart Mobility
      • 2. European Truck Platooning Challenge
      • 3. AV Trials
      • 4. Dutch Automated Vehicle Initiative
    • Sweden
      • 1. Drive Me Project
      • 2. Vision Zero Initiative
      • 3. AV Test Policy
    • Spain
      • 1. Government Initiatives
      • 2. AV Research
    • Finland
      • 1. Legal Framework and Vehicle Testing
      • 2. The Aurora Test Centre
      • 3. NordicWay Agreement
    • Italy
      • 1. AV Regulation
      • 2. AV and Related Project Examples
      • 2. North America
    • United States
      • 1. Federal Initiatives
      • 2. State Initiatives
    • Canada
      • 1. National Initiatives
      • 2. Provincial & City Initiatives
      • 3. Asia
    • China
      • 1. Legislation
      • 2. Example Trials and OEM Activity
    • South Korea
      • 1. Government Initiatives
      • 2. Example AV Trials and R&D
    • Japan
      • 1. Government Initiatives
      • 2. Example AV Activity
  • 4. A Selection of AV Activity Elsewhere
    • 1. Singapore
    • 2. Taiwan
    • 3. Australia
  • 5. Tables

Chapter 4: Implications for Automotive Industry Structure

  • 1. Introduction
    • Structural Features of Automotive Industry
      • Other Radical Transformations for The Transportation Economy
      • Electric vehicles
  • 2. The Position of Automotive OEMs
  • 3. Acquisitions and Investments by OEMs
    • 2016 - Example Investments
      • General Motors
      • Ford
      • Audi
      • Volkswagen
      • BMW
      • Toyota
      • Volvo
    • 2015 - Example OEM Investments
      • New Entrant Activity
      • Alibaba
      • Apple
      • Baidu
      • Google
      • Yandex
  • 4. Legacy OEMs Shift to Contract Manufacturing?
  • 5. Start-ups
  • 6. Traditional First-Tier Suppliers
    • Key Advantages
      • Developing New Capabilities
      • Mergers and Acquisitions
  • 7. Sub-system and Non-Automotive Suppliers
  • 8. Conclusion
  • 9. Tables
    • AV-related OEM Investments and Partnerships
      • 2016
      • 2015
    • Interest from Non-Automotive Businesses
      • 2016
    • Autonomous-related Acquisitions by Tier 1 suppliers
      • 2016
      • 2015
    • Subsystem Manufacturer Activity
      • 2016
      • 2015
    • Level 4 Systems in use
      • 2016

Chapter 5: The Transition to a New Transportation Sector

  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Diffusion of AV Technology
    • The Diffusion Model
    • Diffusion Constraints
  • 3. Will Potential AV Technology Benefits Appear?
    • Safety
    • Productivity
    • Vehicle Pricing
    • Convenience
    • Price Elasticity of Demand
  • 4. How Will/Could Purchase, Ownership & Maintenance Models Change?
    • Potential Ownership Models
    • Outright Ownership
    • Shared Ownership
    • On Demand
    • Maintenance, Regulation & Safety
  • 5. Who Will Make Money from AVs?
    • Traditional Competition & Branding
    • The Fight for Intellectual Property
  • 6. Conclusion

References

Table of figures

  • Figure 1.1: “Ford CEO Mark Fields says his company is ‘completely rethinking how we approach the business'. Do you think autonomous cars will be a significant driver of change for your business?”
  • Figure 1.2: When do you expect driving autonomy to become reality for vehicles on the road?
  • Figure 1.3: The relative attractiveness of vehicles in Germany
  • Figure 1.4: The relative attractiveness of vehicles in China
  • Figure 1.5: Relative Urban Mobility of World Cities
  • Figure 1.6: % Changes in Energy Consumption due to Vehicle Automation
  • Figure 1.7: Consumer demand for safety features in their next vehicle
  • Figure 1.8: The Full Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes
  • Figure 1.9: ADAS Sensors
  • Figure 1.10: Technical Challenges for AVs
  • Figure 2.1: The Chevrolet Tahoe “BOSS” used in DARPA Grand Challenge 2007
  • Figure 2.2: Miles driven by Google self-driving car (October 2016)
  • Figure 2.3: Functional Architecture of an Autonomous Vehicle
  • Figure 2.4: Functional building blocks of autonomous vehicles
  • Figure 2.5: Uber's self-driving prototype “Ford Fusion”
  • Figure 2.6: A reconstructed image from a stereo-vision camera of Mercedes S-class prototype
  • Figure 2.7: Magna's autonomous driving prototype (Cadillac ATS)
  • Figure 2.8: Evolution of radar technology
  • Figure 2.9: VLP-16 “Puck” LiDAR sensor
  • Figure 2.10: Comparison of different perceptive systems by Dr. Karsten Funk
  • Figure 2.11: A reconstructed image of Google driverless prototype navigation a construction zone
  • Figure 2.12: Relation between sensor fusion and programming complexity
  • Figure 2.13: Potential conflict scenarios in ACC systems
  • Figure 2.14: An example of incorrect perception by mono-vision camera
  • Figure 2.15: Vehicle Control Architecture
  • Figure 2.16: Projection of attachment rate of AI-based systems for automotive industry (2015-25)
  • Figure 2.17: Pedestrian detection system using deep learning
  • Figure 2.18: Scania's hill descent/ascent control system using real-time GPS data (Active Prediction)
  • Figure 2.19: A reconstructed image showing probe-data being collected by the front camera
  • Figure 2.20: V2X Extends a Vehicle's Horizon
  • Figure 2.21: MK5 on-board DSRC unit for V2X communications
  • Figure 2.22: MK5 Road Side Unit
  • Figure 2.23: A man dozing while the Tesla Autopilot system is engaged
  • Figure 2.24: Nielsen Report “What's Driving Tomorrow's Drivers?”
  • Figure 2.25: Brown's Tesla Model S after colliding with 18-wheel truck
  • Figure 2.26: Bird's eye of Tesla Model S road crash of May 7
  • Figure 2.27: Sensors on Tesla Model S for Autopilot system
  • Figure 2.28: Types of Situational Awareness - Autelligence based on Jaguar Land Rover information.
  • Figure 2.29: Synergies of car HMI and levels of vehicle automation (2014)
  • Figure 2.30: Emotion analysis using in-vehicle facial recognition
  • Figure 2.31: Augmented Reality from Hyundai
  • Figure 3.1: European Commission funded projects supporting the development of automated driving 2005-2015
  • Figure 3.2: Online traffic information in the US
  • Figure 3.3: Mobile-Edge Computing
  • Figure 3.4: French AV Roadmap
  • Figure 3.5: Dutch exemption processes
  • Figure 3.6: EcoTwin Project
  • Figure 3.7: WEpod
  • Figure 3.8: Drive Me project road sections
  • Figure 3.9: The Aurora Test site in Finnish Lapland.
  • Figure 3.10: Next Future Transportation Modules
  • Figure 3.11: Michigan autonomous vehicle facility
  • Figure 3.12: Autonomous driving consumer survey 2015
  • Figure 3.13: Japanese Government AV Roadmap
  • Figure 3.14: Australian AV Timeline
  • Figure 3.15: Volvo driverless cars trials in South Australia
  • Figure 4.1: Competitive Differentiators/Brand Equity Values under Threat
  • Figure 4.2: Waymo, Commercialising Google's Self-driving Car

Table of tables

  • Table 1.1: 15 major cities by largest difference in vehicle ownership rate, developed countries, percent of households with passenger car, 2014
  • Table 3.1: Europe Legislation and Policy Initiatives
  • Table 3.2: Europe Trials for Self-driving cars
  • Table 3.3: North America Legislation and Policy Initiatives
  • Table 3.4: North America Trials for Self-driving cars
  • Table 3.5: Asia Legislation and Policy Initiatives
  • Table 3.6: Asia Trials for Self-driving Cars
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