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市場調查報告書

21世紀的動力傳動:電氣化·燃料·未來性

Powertrain to 2025: Trends and Risks

出版商 Autelligence 商品編碼 388251
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 120 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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21世紀的動力傳動:電氣化·燃料·未來性 Powertrain to 2025: Trends and Risks
出版日期: 2017年04月28日 內容資訊: 英文 120 Pages
簡介

在21世紀的動力傳動開發上,將內燃機 (ICU)·電池·變速箱·發電機·馬達等複雜地組合在一起成了主流。最初僅有部分車型如此做,但現在包含小型車在內,各領域均在引進。預計到2025年,大半的動力傳動都會電氣化。

本報告提供全球汽車產業的現在·未來動力傳動開發趨勢相關分析,提供您整體技術開發與普及的流程,及主要產品的技術開發·市場成長預測,今後的技術開發方案預測,主要企業的配合措施情形等調查評估。

第1章 簡介

  • 消費者的想法
  • 市場情況與趨勢:一般的見解
  • 顛覆性技術·革新的形狀
  • 主要的疑問與市場的不確定性·趨勢

第2章 推動市場要素的概要與全球各地的法規要件

  • 排放標準和溫室效應氣體 (GHG) 排放量
  • 燃油消耗率
  • 實驗循環:最後的審判
  • 燃料的採購·供給可能性
  • 插電式混合動力車銷售台數
  • 政府的配合措施和汽車廠商的影響力
    • 加州
    • 中國
  • 摘要:預測和不確定性

第3章 小型車用汽油引擎的開發

  • 削減燃油消耗率和消除煤煙
  • 技術藍圖:不一樣的發展之道
    • 未來的革命的變化與創新
  • 摘要:預測和不確定性

第4章 小型車用柴油引擎的開發

  • 技術方面的優勢和弱點
  • 成長阻礙因素:柴油燃料的價格高·需求小
  • 摘要:柴油引擎市場預測與趨勢

第5章 電池式蓄電設備

  • 電池的背景情況:開發的進展
  • 經濟性與產品價格:「每1kWh100美元」有可能實現嗎?
  • 電池技術的進步與未來預測
  • 電池的供給業者
  • 未來的革命的變化與創新
  • 電池的充電
  • 摘要:電池式蓄電設備的未來預測和不確定性

第6章 電動車的新經營模式和用戶方面的接受度

  • 「作為服務的」行動
  • 個人BEV (電池電動車):由於車型擴充而日益暢銷
  • 合成燃料
  • 摘要:預測和不確定性

第7章 市場趨勢與預測:方案·方法

  • 共同的前提條件
  • 技術開發低調的情況方案:技術開發·電氣化的氣勢比一般估計更停滯
  • 技術開發活躍的情況方案:高科技型內燃機·電氣化技術的開發加速化

附錄A:動力傳動·系統概要

  • 動力傳動的電氣化
  • 技術與結構

附錄B:小型車用變速箱

  • 變速箱的種類:用語一覽
  • 摘要:預測和不確定性

附錄C:小型車用電動裝置的開發

  • 電動馬達
  • 電力電子技術
  • 一體型單位
  • 48v電源支援混合動力汽車的開發
  • 摘要:電動式牽引驅動裝置的預測和不確定性

企業簡介

  • BorgWarner
  • Bosch
  • Continental
  • Delphi
  • Eaton
  • 日立汽車Systems
  • Honeywell
  • Magneti Marelli
  • Ricardo
  • Schaeffler
  • Valeo
  • ZF Friedrichshafen

圖表一覽

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目錄

UPDATED: The quarterly research update adds analysis, discussion of events and developments in the past quarter, and a revised outlook to assess their likely impact. Topics covered include the current state of review of the US 2022 - 2025 CAFÉ standards, impact on EV sales of conservative US politics, as well as a summary and full results of the 2017 Autelligence Future of Powertrain Survey.

Non-linear improvements in computer power have caused profound disruption in many industries. In automotive, a lot of attention has been focused on smart cars and connectivity.

But a huge disruption is already happening in powertrain development, driven by the electronic control units (ECUs) in light duty vehicles, as they improve and engineers learn how to use them.

The 21st century powertrain is an integrated and jointly developed combination of IC engines, batteries, transmissions (sometimes), generator/motors and complex control systems. While these hybrids started out as a specialist choice, most automakers agreed that electrification of most powertrains will occur to some degree by 2025.

So, electrification will become the new normal. The question is how much electrification.

"21st Century Powertrain: electrification, fuel and future" examines the impact of these developments on the five major elements of the future powertrain:

  • Internal combustion engines
  • Transmissions
  • Control Systems
  • Batteries
  • Electric Motors

The report looks at technical trends and developments in each of these areas, and projects how those trends might develop by 2025 to 2030. It establishes the consensus view about developments, and then challenges it with Key Uncertainties, Trends and Potential Disruptors.

Each chapter summarizes these for each of the technology areas, and then pulls them together into plausible, alternate scenarios to the central outlook to help planners "bookend" the best and worst cases.

What is unique about this report?

Building on a series of in-depth studies of different powertrain technologies, as well as Autelligence surveys of experts, this report aims to offer a wider perspective on a cluster of the key issues around the consensus that has built up on the path of powertrain development in the automotive industry in the next decade.

The report is also more than a one-off download - includes strategic analysis of 12 key companies in the sector and quarterly updates of development in powertrain electrification completed, analysed and written by the report author.

Key strategic questions addressed

The report addresses four key strategic questions, the answers to which will determine the near term future of automotive powertrains:

  • 1. What is the probability that the emissions and fuel economy regulations projected for 2021 through 2025 will remain as currently envisioned? If they change, in what direction?
  • 2. How important is fuel price among the pressures put on automakers, compared with other issues? What is the likelihood that fuel prices will remain at the relatively low levels of 2016?
  • 3. How will battery prices develop? How close is $100/kWh?
  • 4. What is the likelihood that a significant technical disruptor will be introduced in the next few years - significant enough and early enough to challenge the industry's consensus view for 2030?
  • 5. What is the likelihood that the current trends in powertrain developments will achieve their goals if no technical disruptor emerges?

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Introduction

  • 1.1 Consumer attitudes count
  • 1.2 Scenarios and developments - the Consensus View
  • 1.3 The shape of technical disruptors and innovations
  • 1.4 Key questions, uncertainties, and trends

Chapter 2: Overview of market drivers and regulatory requirements worldwide

  • 2.1 Criteria and GHG emissions
  • 2.2 Fuel economy
  • 2.3 Test cycles - the day of reckoning
  • 2.4 Fuel availability and affordability
  • 2.5 Plug-in sales
  • 2.6 Government incentives - its effect on automakers
    • 2.6.1 California
    • 2.6.2 China
  • Chapter 2 Summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 3: Gasoline engine developments for light duty vehicles

  • 3.1 Better fuel economy, more soot
  • 3.2 Technology map - a quilt, not a blanket
    • 3.2.1 Potential disruptors and innovations
  • Chapter 3 Summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 4: Diesel engine developments for light duty vehicles

  • 4.1 Technology - strengths and weaknesses
  • 4.2 Growth constrained by high diesel fuel prices and demand
  • Chapter 4 Summary - diesel forecasts and trends

Chapter 5: Electric battery storage

  • 5.1 Background and batteries - development progresses
  • 5.2 Economics and price - is $100/kWh valid?
  • 5.3 Battery progress and projections
  • 5.4 Battery suppliers
  • 5.5 Potential disruptors and innovations in energy batteries
  • 5.6 Charging a battery
  • Chapter 5 Summary - forecasts and uncertainties for electric battery storage

Chapter 6: New business models and user acceptance of electric vehicles

  • 6.1 Mobility as a service
  • 6.2 Personal BEVs, fun tempered by range
  • 6.3 Synthetic fuels
  • Chapter 6 Summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 7: Trends and projections - a scenario approach

  • 7.1 Common assumptions
  • 7.2 Low Tech Scenario - less technology and electrification than the Consensus View
  • 7.3 High Tech Scenario - accelerated development of high tech combustion and electrified technologies

Appendix A: Powertrain systems overview

  • A.1 Electrification of the powertrain
  • A.2 Technology and architectures

Appendix B: Transmissions for light duty vehicles

  • B.1 Types of transmissions - terms of reference
  • Appendix B Summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Appendix C: Electric drive system developments for light duty vehicles

  • C.1 Electric motors
  • C.2 Power electronics
  • C.3 Integrated units
  • C.4 48V hybrid developments
  • Appendix C Summary - forecasts and uncertainties for electric traction drive systems

Appendix D December 2016 Quarterly Research Update:

  • Likely impact of the Trump election
  • Potential revisions of the 2025 US CAFE standards
  • New analysis of likely developments in battery costs
  • Appendix E April 2017 Quarterly Research Update:
  • The US 2022 - 2025 CAFÉ Standards: Finalized and then - again - up for review
  • EV Sales up worldwide as conservative politics in US dampens incentives
  • Black Swan Alert - the Opposed Piston Engine
  • 2017 Autelligence Future of Powertrain Survey
  • Company profiles
  • BorgWarner
  • Bosch
  • Continental
  • Delphi
  • Eaton
  • Hitachi Automotive Systems
  • Honeywell
  • Magneti Marelli
  • Ricardo
  • Schaeffler
  • Valeo
  • ZF Friedrichshafen

Table of figures

  • Figure 1.1: In a survey conducted by Morpace, the conventional ICE engine remains consumers' number one choice, followed closely by hybrids and GTDI as second and third
  • Figure 1.2: Data presenting Continental's Powertrain Outlook for Global private and light vehicle engine production through 2024, referred to in this report as the Consensus View
  • Figure 2.1: The need to harmonize conflicting demands on automakers is the challenge today
  • Figure 2.2: Summary of regulations, timing of important worldwide criteria, and GHG emissions regulations
  • Figure 2.3: Vehicle criteria emissions standards worldwide tend to follow various versions of either European Union or North American/United States regulations. This chart shows worldwide the known conformance roughly to EU standards.
  • Figure 2.4: Why Chinese regulations matter - the Chinese market is now the largest in the world and expected to stay that way
  • Figure 2.5: A concise view of the fuel economy challenges as stated in 2014 by Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
  • Figure 2.6: Uncertainty remains in future fuel economy/CO2 regulations in the US, because of the "midterm evaluation", where regulators and automakers will map out future feasibility
  • Figure 2.7: Cars are tested using fixed dynamometers on specific schedules on rolling, or chassis, dynamometers. Their emissions are measured over the cycles.
  • Figure 2.8: An example of a test cycle conducted on a chassis dyno, this is the proposed worldwide, harmonized test cycle as of 2013
  • Figure 2.9: Portable emissions measurement systems will be a key element in RDE test
  • Figure 2.10: The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) projects gasoline prices in North America to remain well below $4/gal through 2025 in its 2015 Annual Energy Outlook in the Low Oil Price Scenario
  • Figure 2.11: Sales of HEV vehicles sold and marketed in the USA as HEVs wax and wane, in concert with inflation adjusted fuel prices among other factors
  • Figure 2.12: The Innovation Diffusion curve is well accepted approach to understanding the demographics of potential users
  • Figure 2.13: Fifteen years after introduction, HEVs have not broken out of the demographic group that are willing to try anything
  • Figure 2.14: Worldwide sales of EVs and PHEVs increased through 2015, led by China and Western Europe
  • Figure 3.1: Efficient turbocharged gasoline direct engines, GTDI, make engines more efficient over a wider range of loads and speeds, improving fuel economy
  • Figure 3.2: Note the vast differences in take rates for various engine technologies by region predicted by IHS Automotive by 2020
  • Figure 3.3: Ricardo advocates incremental costs towards achieving needed improvements in fuel economy
  • Figure 3.4: Steady improvements in fuel consumption per unit of horsepower is shown
  • Figure 4.1: ExxonMobil projects that commercial transport will drive future fuel demand, driving up a demand for diesel
  • Figure 5.1: This illustration shows the inner workings of a lithium-ion battery
  • Figure 5.2: Notional diagram of battery operation for the three recognised modes of electrified powertrains, illustrating why batteries are oversized
  • Figure 5.3: Specification for commercialising a suitable battery for an electric vehicle
  • Figure 5.4: Using basic assumptions, $100/kWh provides cost parity to a fuel efficient passenger car in North America
  • Figure 5.5: Using the same cost model using average electricity prices in Germany and $250/kWhr seems a reasonable cost for battery storage to achieve price parity with gasoline passenger cars
  • Figure 5.6: Current status of energy batteries against end-of-life goals as evaluated by USABC and USCAR in December, 2015
  • Figure 5.7: One research group, Lux Research, predicts battery prices falling into the $200/kWhr range by 2025
  • Figure 5.8: General Motors revealed its cost per kWh for cells and their projected glide path to 2022
  • Figure 5.9: Motivation for pursuing advanced electric batteries - the potential to rival gasoline energy density
  • Figure 5.10: According to Bloomberg, automotive traction battery costs could potentially bottom out at $100/kWh by 2025 through 2030
  • Figure 6.1: With an appropriately sized battery for a range of 150 miles, a BEV costs less to operate than a comparable ICE powered car
  • Figure 6.2: Data compiled by General Motors indicates that greater than 70% of potential EV buyers would be satisfied with a BEV that had a range greater than 200 miles on a single charge
  • Figure 7.1: Continental's vision of a light duty market dominated by conventional powertrains by 2025 is commonly held in the industry, within certain parameters (reformatted), in millions of units worldwide
  • Figure 7.2: A variant chart from the Consensus View of light duty powertrains based on a scenario with drivers that favor lower technology powertrains, in millions of units worldwide
  • Figure 7.3: An aggressively optimistic projection of electrified and high technology light duty powertrain distributions as a variant on the Consensus Model, in millions of units worldwide.
  • Figure A.1: Conventional powertrain systems have a single source of energy and torque, generated from an internal combustion engine transferred via the crankshaft
  • Figure A.2: According to BCG, improvements to powertrain - especially engines - outweighs all other potential conventional improvements automakers could make
  • Figure A.3: Generalised torque/speed curve. All ICEs, particularly gasoline, exhibit BSFC maps like this with worse efficiency under low, or part load.
  • Figure A.4: MY 2014 vehicle production that meets future US CAFE CO2 emissions targets, from 2016 to the proposed 2025 targets, according to data from the US EPA
  • Figure A.5: An example of some of the most common architecture models for "full" HEV systems
  • Figure A.6: This chart from Continental is good way to view the various options of electrification, from simple start-stop to a full electric vehicle, in terms of fuel economy at the point of use
  • Figure A.7: Comparison of idealised torque curve for an electric motor and an ICE engine, showing how they complement each other
  • Figure A.8: The decision landscape between electrification and conventional improvements to meet future fuel economy and CO2 regulations
  • Figure B.1: Global transmission sales (millions) projected to 2020
  • Figure B.2: The differences in the number of speeds in an automatic planetary gear transmission means the engine will operate more frequently at its most fuel efficient load/speed point
  • Figure C.1: The basic electric drive traction system, here shown as part of a hybrid electric system
  • Figure C.2: GKN Automotive showcased its new eTwinsterR torque-vectoring electric drive system for hybrid vehicles
  • Figure C.3: ZF's electric drive system positioned centrally on the axle is also available as a unit fully integrated into a new modular rear axle concept
  • Figure C.4: Some in the industry are using the term 'P4 Hybrid' to describe the electrified axle configuration
  • Figure C.5: Continental predicts that saving fuel increases with each level of integration. Energy management can make more comprehensive use of an ICE and electrical energy

Table of tables

  • Table 2.1: Forecasts of key market driver questions summarized with probabilities assigned
  • Table 3.1: Forecasts of key engine technology questions summarised with probabilities assigned
  • Table 4.1: Forecasts of key engine technology questions summarized with probabilities assigned
  • Table 5.1: Approximate recharging times per SAE for PEVs and BEVs
  • Table 5.2: Forecasts of key battery electric storage questions summarised with probabilities assigned
  • Table 6.1: Summary of potential disruptors
  • Table C.1: Essential elements of electric traction drive systems
  • Table C.2: Essential elements of electric traction drive systems with "stretch"
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