NEWS: 公告在東京證券交易所JASDAQ標準市場新上市

表紙
市場調查報告書

通訊服務:全球市場的趨勢與預測(2019∼2024年)

Communication Services: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 931134
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 24 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
價格
通訊服務:全球市場的趨勢與預測(2019∼2024年) Communication Services: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
出版日期: 2020年04月06日內容資訊: 英文 24 Slides
簡介

此報告探討手機通訊服務的全球市場前景。

全球趨勢

  • 2019年所傳輸的OTT IP訊息總共有79兆件,為使用簡訊的16倍
  • 2019年,82%的智慧型手機使用者活用OTT訊息應用程式,這類的應用程式普及成長在未來的數年將會停滯
  • OTT通訊市場開始飽和,普及成長的最大機會在通話及訊息以外的功能
  • 智慧型手機今後也會獨佔通訊裝置,但使用新穎裝置的情況也會增加
  • 營運商的戰略應對會隨著地區而有大幅度的改變
  • 營運商在未來開始進行轉移至智慧型手機使用者的VoLTE服務,到2024年為止加入VoLTE的人預計約有57億人
  • 營運商為了提高消費者的通話品質以及改善手機網路,提供WiFi的服務
  • RCS使用者的人數增加,智慧型手機使用者的48%至2024年底為止都會使用此技術

西歐

  • Facebook的收入構造導致使用簡訊的機會急劇減少
  • 營運商雖然還是獨佔通話部分,但是受到替代方案供應商的強力挑戰

中歐、東歐

  • OTT應用程式十分受到歡迎,此現象持續擴大,對營運商來說成為挑戰
  • 提供室內室外的高品質通話對像地區,VoIP的勢力持續擴大

中東、北非

  • OTT服務獨佔訊息領域,營運商對於競爭的態度十分消極
  • 傳統的通話服務在未來雖然也佔主導地位,但VoIP持續成為競爭對手

撒哈拉以南

  • 社群媒體及訊息服務在未來也將成為營運商的重要收入成長來源
  • OTT業者也受惠於手機導入語音服務,手機通話讓營運商收入持續成長

新興亞太地區

  • Facebook挑戰本土業者,逐漸成為獨佔性訊息供應商
  • 由於發展共通通訊平台的通話、影片功能,使用者也習慣了OTT通話服務

亞太地區:已發展國家

  • 日韓的營運商聯手以共通品牌創立RCS
  • 營運商的電路交換語音業務已被VoLTE和OTT語音服務所取代

北美

  • 營運商將利用訊息傳遞的剩餘優勢來取得A2P價值鏈的重要市佔率
  • 由於營運商在新技術的投資,大多數的語音流量將來自營運商的IP服務

南美

  • 簡訊業務已經在較大的市場達到頂峰,因為業務已經轉移到OTT服務。主要營運商都致力於RCS發展
  • 傳統的通話服務在預測期間仍將佔主導地位

預測手法及先決條件

作者與Analysys Mason

目錄

"79 trillion OTT IP messages were sent in 2019; this is 16 times the number of messages that were sent using SMS."

This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market worldwide. It provides forecasts for voice and messaging services provided by both mobile network operators and over-the-top (OTT) providers.

This report provides:

  • forecasts for operator services including VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling and IP messaging, as well as traditional voice and SMS
  • quantification of the level of substitution from traditional services to OTT alternatives
  • user and traffic forecasts for communication services, including OTT voice and messaging
  • an outlook for multi-device usage across smartphones, tablets and PCs/laptops
  • detailed forecasts for 63 individual countries and eight regions.
RegionsKey metrics
  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)
  • Non-operator/OTT services
    • Voice and messaging
    • Active users by device type
    • Outgoing traffic by device type
  • Operator traditional services
    • Handsets
    • Circuit-switched (CS) voice and SMS
    • Outgoing traffic
  • Operator IP-based services
    • Active users by service type:
      • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
    • Outgoing traffic by service type
      • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
    • Retail revenue
      • voice and messaging
      • average spend per user

Table of Contents

  • 6. Worldwide trends
  • 7. Worldwide: 79 trillion OTT IP messages were sent in 2019; this is 16 times the number of messages that were sent using SMS
  • 8. Worldwide: 82% of smartphone users were active on OTT messaging apps in 2019; the growth in penetration of these apps will slow down in the coming years
  • 9. Worldwide: the OTT communication market is heading towards saturation; the largest opportunities for penetration growth reside outside voice and messaging
  • 10. Worldwide: smartphones will continue to be the dominant communication devices, but the use of emerging devices will increase
  • 11. Worldwide: strategic responses from operators vary significantly in different regions
  • 12. Worldwide: operators are continuing to migrate smartphone users to VoLTE services; nearly 5.7 billion VoLTE subscribers are expected by 2024
  • 13. Worldwide: operators are continuing to roll out Wi Fi calling services to improve consumer call quality and relieve mobile network traffic
  • 14. Worldwide: the number of RCS users is growing, and 48% of smartphone users will use the technology by the end of the forecast period
  • 15. Western Europe
  • 16. Western Europe: the use of SMS is in steep decline, largely due to the Facebook ecosystem
  • 17. Western Europe: operators will remain dominant in voice, but will be strongly challenged by alternative providers
  • 18. Central and Eastern Europe
  • 19. Central and Eastern Europe: OTT messaging apps are increasing in popularity and will pose challenges to operators
  • 20. Central and Eastern Europe: operators are providing indoor and outdoor HD voice coverage and VoIP is gaining traction
  • 21. Middle East and North Africa
  • 22. Middle East and North Africa: OTT services will dominate the messaging space and operators are not keen to compete
  • 23. Middle East and North Africa: legacy voice services will continue to dominate, but VoIP will represent a persistent challenge
  • 24. Sub Saharan Africa
  • 25. Sub Saharan Africa: social media and messaging services will continue to be important drivers of revenue growth for operators
  • 26. Sub Saharan Africa: operators' revenue from mobile voice will continue to grow, although OTT players will also benefit from the increase in mobile voice adoption
  • 27. Emerging Asia Pacific
  • 28. Emerging Asia Pacific: Facebook is challenging local players and is set to become the dominant messaging provider in the region
  • 29. Emerging Asia Pacific: the roll out of voice and video features on common communication platforms has made users accustomed to OTT voice services
  • 30. Developed Asia Pacific
  • 31. Developed Asia Pacific: operators in Japan and South Korea have joined forces to launch RCS under a common brand
  • 32. Developed Asia Pacific: operator circuit switched voice traffic is being substituted by VoLTE and OTT voice services
  • 33. North America
  • 34. North America: operators will make use of the residual strength of their messaging proposition to acquire a significant share of the A2P value chain
  • 35. North America: most voice traffic will come from operator IP services by 2020 due to operators' investments in new technologies
  • 36. Latin America
  • 37. Latin America: SMS traffic has already peaked in the larger markets because traffic has migrated to OTT services; the major operators are committing to RCS
  • 38. Latin America: traditional voice services are expected to remain dominant during the entire forecast period
  • 39. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 40. Forecast outputs and definitions
  • 41. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 42. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 43. About the authors
  • 44. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 45. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 46. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Messages sent, by message type, worldwide, 2012--2019
  • Figure 2: Messages sent, by message type, and number of OTT messaging active users, worldwide, 2012--2024
  • Figure 3: OTT messaging users, by device, worldwide, 2012--2024
  • Figure 4: OTT voice users, by device, worldwide, 2012--2024
  • Figure 5: Retail revenue for operator mobile voice services, by region, worldwide, 2017--2024
  • Figure 6: Retail revenue for operator mobile messaging services, by region, worldwide, 2017--2024
  • Figure 7: Active users of VoLTE services, by region, 2017--2024
  • Figure 8: Wi-Fi calling traffic and number of service users, worldwide, 2017--2024
  • Figure 9: Traffic and users for all mobile operator messaging services, worldwide, 2015--2024
  • Figure 10: Messaging traffic, Western Europe, 2012--2024
  • Figure 11: Mobile voice traffic, Western Europe, 2012--2024
  • Figure 12: Messaging traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012--2024
  • Figure 13: Mobile voice traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012--2024
  • Figure 14: Messaging traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2012--2024
  • Figure 15: Mobile voice traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2012--2024
  • Figure 16: Messaging traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012--2024
  • Figure 17: Mobile voice traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012--2024
  • Figure 18: Messaging traffic, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2012--2024
  • Figure 19: Mobile voice traffic, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2012--2024
  • Figure 20: Messaging traffic, developed Asia--Pacific, 2012--2014
  • Figure 21: Mobile voice traffic, developed Asia--Pacific, 2012--2024
  • Figure 22: Messaging traffic, North America, 2012--2024
  • Figure 23: Mobile voice traffic, North America, 2012--2024
  • Figure 24: Messaging traffic, Latin America, 2012--2024
  • Figure 25: Mobile voice traffic, Latin America, 2012--2024
  • Figure 26: Overview of the main forecast outputs
  • Figure 27: Overview of the forecast methodology used in this report