FTTx的涵蓋範圍及CAPEX:全球趨勢、預測 (2019-2025年)

FTTP存取網的投資案例，新興市場、已發展的市場都很明確，透過FTTP的發展，成為次世代接取對象的家內、區域內的比例預測將從2019年終的55.2％，上升到2025年終的65％。

本報告提供全球FTTx的涵蓋範圍及CAPEX趨勢調查，世界及各地區、主要國家趨勢，各種FTTx及電纜的涵蓋範圍的7年預測，世界8地區、64個國家的市場明細，FTTx展開的推動因素與課題，CAPEX的預測等資料彙整。

目錄

• 全球趨勢
• 西歐
• 中歐、東歐
• 中東、北非
• 撒哈拉以南非洲
• 中國
• 其他的新興亞太地區各國
• 先進亞太地區各國
• 北美
• 南美
• 預測手法、前提條件
• 關於著者、Analysys Mason

調查內容

• 主要標準
  • 涵蓋範圍
  • CAPEX (網路、連接)
• 架構/技術區分
  • FTTC/VDSL或G.fast
  • FTTB/VDSL或G.fast
  • FTTB/LAN
  • FTTP (現有經營者、替代經營者)
  • 電纜DOCSIS3.0或3.1

"We forecast that the percentage of global premises covered by next-generation access will rise from 55.2% at the end of 2019 to 65% at the end of 2025."

The business case for investment in FTTP access networks has become clearer in both emerging and developed markets. FTTP roll-outs will drive up global next-generation access (NGA) coverage from 55% at the of end 2019 to 65% at the end of 2025.

This report provides:

• 7-year forecasts for flavours of FTTx and cable (DOCSIS3.0/3.1) coverage in 8 regions and 64 individual markets

• analysis of the key trends, drivers and inhibitors of network roll-out of FTTx

• an assessment of the level of capital expenditure to 2025.

Key questions answered in this report

• How quickly will next-generation access (NGA) coverage grow across different global regions and individual markets?

• Which markets represent the most-promising opportunities for vendors in terms of NGA coverage expansion?

• To what extent can NGA coverage grow in emerging markets across the globe?

• What will be the scale of roll-outs from non-incumbent FTTP operators?

• What are the coverage levels of Gigabit-capable broadband?

KEY METRICS

• Coverage (premises passed)

• Capex (network and connection)

• Split by architecture/technology:
  • FTTC/VDSL or G.fast, FTTB/VDSL or G.fast, FTTB/LAN
  • FTTP (split by incumbent and alternative operator)
  • Cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1 (note: capex is not provided for cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1).

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE:

The report and accompanying data annex provide forecasts for 8 regions and 64 individual countries.

Region:	Countries:
Western Europe (WE)	Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,   Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain,Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
Western Europe	AAustria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
Central and Eastern Europe	Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine.
Middle East and North Africa	Israel, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
Sub-Saharan Africa	Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa.
Emerging Asia-Pacific	China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
Developed Asia-Pacific	Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan.
North America	Canada, USA.
Latin America	Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.

Table of Contents

• 6. Worldwide trends
• 7. We forecast that 2019 was the peak year for global FTTx capex worldwide
• 8. FTTP will increase its dominance of the global NGA landscape during the forecast period
• 9. FTTP and cable networks are the only viable options for meeting coverage targets for gigabit capable broadband
• 10. Roll out plans in most countries in Western Europe currently miss the Gigabit Society's targets by some margin
• 11. Much work remains in Central and Eastern Europe in order to meet the EU's Gigabit Society's targets
• 12. The rate at which FTTP can be built out depends on the existing level of usable infrastructure, but regulation can help to speed up roll outs
• 13. Non incumbent operators can also rapidly increase FTTP coverage, particularly if they have access to their own or rented infrastructure
• 14. There are opportunities for FTTP vendors to benefit from significant coverage increases in some, but not all, large emerging markets
• 15. Western Europe
• 16. We forecast strong levels of investment in FTTP networks in Western Europe throughout the forecast period
• 17. Central and Eastern Europe
• 18. The number of non incumbent FTTP deployments in rural areas in Central and Eastern Europe is growing, but not dramatically
• 19. Middle East and North Africa
• 20. Government intervention is driving an increase in fibre coverage in the Middle East and North Africa, and the focus on wholesale access in the region is increasing
• 21. Sub Saharan Africa
• 22. NGA coverage in Sub Saharan Africa is constrained by affordability, the high cost of deployment and the lack of availability of fibre backbone infrastructure
• 23. China
• 24. FTTP coverage is already very high in China and the focus has shifted to upgrading to next generation PON
• 25. Emerging Asia Pacific
• 26. The number of FTTP deployments in several countries in the EMAP region increased in 2019 and this momentum will continue
• 27. Developed Asia Pacific
• 28. Several drivers explain the growth in the number of next generation PON deployments in developed Asia Pacific
• 29. North America
• 30. The number of new fibre entrants in North America is far fewer than in Western Europe
• 31. Latin America
• 32. Investment in FTTx networks in LATAM continues to be strong, although this will slow down during the forecast period
• 33. Forecast methodology and assumptions
• 34. Geographical scope: forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
• 35. Definitions
• 36. We take baseline costs for each technology and then apply several context specific variables to determine total capexTop level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: basic topologies
• 37. Top level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: basic topologies
• 38. About the author and Analysys Mason
• 39. About the author
• 40. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
• 41. Research from Analysys Mason
• 42. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

• Figure 1: FTTx capex, by worldwide region, 2015--2025
• Figure 2: NGA coverage by technology, worldwide, 2015--2025
• Figure 3: Percentage of premises covered by gigabit-capable networks, Western Europe, 2019 and 2025
• Figure 4: Percentage of premises covered by gigabit-capable networks, Central and Eastern Europe, 2019 and 2025
• Figure 5: Percentage of premises covered by gigabit-capable networks, North America and developed Asia--Pacific, 2019 and 2025
• Figure 6: Incumbent operators' maximum year-on-year percentage point increases in FTTP coverage, as a percentage of total premises passed, selected countries
• Figure 7: Incumbent operators' maximum year-on-year percentage point increases in FTTP coverage, as a percentage of total premises passed, selected countries
• Figure 8: FTTP coverage of total premises, by selected counties in emerging markets, 2019 and 2025
• Figure 9: NGA coverage by technology, Western Europe, 2017--2025
• Figure 10: FTTx capex by technology, Western Europe, 2017--2025
• Figure 11: NGA coverage by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017--2025
• Figure 12: FTTx capex by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017--2025
• Figure 13: NGA coverage by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2017--2025
• Figure 14: FTTx capex by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2017--2025
• Figure 15: NGA coverage by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017--2025
• Figure 16: FTTx capex by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017--2025
• Figure 17: NGA coverage by technology, China, 2017--2025
• Figure 18: FTTx capex by technology, China, 2017--2025
• Figure 19: NGA coverage by technology, emerging Asia--Pacific excluding China, 2017--2025
• Figure 20: FTTx capex by technology, emerging Asia--Pacific excluding China, 2017--2025
• Figure 21: NGA coverage by technology, developed Asia--Pacific, 2017--2025
• Figure 22: FTTx capex by technology, developed Asia--Pacific, 2017--2025
• Figure 23: NGA coverage by technology, North America, 2017--2025
• Figure 24: FTTx capex by technology, North America, 2017--2025
• Figure 25: NGA coverage by technology, Latin America, 2017--2025
• Figure 26: FTTx capex by technology, Latin America, 2017--2025
• Figure 27: Countries covered in this report, by region
• Figure 28: Definitions used in this report
• Figure 29: Capex model outline
• Figure 30: Basic overview of FTTx network topologies and elements