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市場調查報告書

先進的亞太地區的通訊市場:趨勢與預測

Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 906157
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 46 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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先進的亞太地區的通訊市場:趨勢與預測 Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
出版日期: 2019年08月13日內容資訊: 英文 46 Slides
簡介

本報告提供先進的亞太地區 (DVAP) 的通訊市場相關調查分析,5年預測,加上趨勢,促進因素,預測的前提條件,業者策略概要,各國專題等相關的系統性資訊。

調查內容

  • 180個以上的行動/固定的KPI (重要業績評估指標)的5年預測 (全部區域,主要7個國家)
  • 行動/固定服務趨勢,促進因素,預測的前提條件分析 (主要國家)
  • 業者策略,各國話題概要
  • 調查結果,行動/固定經營者的建議等

調查對象國家

  • 澳洲
  • 香港
  • 日本
  • 紐西蘭
  • 新加坡
  • 韓國
  • 台灣

調查對象KPI

  • 連線數
    • 行動
    • 固定
  • 語音流量
    • 固定、行動
  • 收益
    • 行動
    • 固定
  • ARPU
    • 行動

目錄

  • 摘要整理與建議
  • 地區的預測與各國比較
  • 各國預測
  • 調查手法
  • 關於著者、Analysys Mason
目錄

"DVAP will continue to lead in terms of the adoption of new and emerging technologies during the forecast period, but operators will struggle to monetise their investments amid saturated markets."

Operators in developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP) will look beyond connectivity enhancements in order to gain a competitive advantage in data-saturated consumer segments and will achieve strong revenue growth from their forays into the new verticals that are opened by IoT and 5G. In this report, we examine key trends and drivers, and provide comprehensive telecoms market forecasts for the region and for seven individually modelled countries.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the DVAP region as a whole and for seven key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Coverage

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators
Region modelled
  • Developed Asia--Pacific (DVAP)

Countries modelled individually

  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • New Zealand
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 8.Executive summary and recommendations
  • 9. The total telecoms retail revenue will decline very slightly during the forecast period
  • 10. Growth in retail revenue will be limited to New Zealand and South Korea only
  • 11. Geographical coverage: the number of NGA connections in Australia and New Zealand will grow towards that in the rest of the region during the forecast period
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross country comparison
  • 15. Market context: robust GDP per capita growth in DVAP will partially mitigate service saturation, thereby allowing operators to upsell premium services
  • 16. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • 17. Key drivers at a glance for each developed Asia Pacific market
  • 18. Market overview: fixed broadband, IoT and business services revenue will grow, but not by enough to offset revenue declines in legacy services
  • 19. Mobile: the take up of 5G services in DVAP will be rapid thanks to favourable demand side conditions
  • 20. Mobile: ARPU will gradually stabilise during the forecast period
  • 21. Mobile: commercial 5G launches and the ongoing expansion of 5G networks will be the main focus areas for operators
  • 22. Fixed: household fixed broadband data consumption will undergo accelerating growth
  • 23. Fixed: growth in the number of FBB connections will be strongest in Australia and New Zealand
  • 24. Fixed: the fixed market in DVAP is very competitive, and operators will focus on consumer experience and churn reduction
  • 25. Business services: operators will successfully capture a share of revenue from IT services, despite stiff competition from larger players
  • 26. IoT: revenue from IoT will represent 15% of the total telecoms revenue by the end of the forecast period
  • 27. Pay TV: revenue from operator OTT and IPTV will grow strongly, and will offset declines in traditional pay TV service revenue
  • 28. Individual country forecasts
  • 29. Australia: mobile handset revenue will grow, driven by increased smartphone adoption and data consumption
  • 30. Australia: the number of NGA connections will double over the forecast period
  • 31. Australia: competition in both the fixed and mobile market segments will intensify, resulting in a slight decline in the total telecoms revenue by 2023
  • 32. Australia: forecast changes
  • 33. Hong Kong: mobile broadband revenue will return to growth following the launch of 5G services
  • 34. Hong Kong: mobile and fixed broadband ASPU will stabilise in the latter half of the forecast period
  • 35. Hong Kong: competition in the value segment will intensify; incumbent operators will respond by increasing tariffs for premium customers
  • 36. Hong Kong: forecast changes
  • 37. Japan: the total telecoms service revenue will decline, mainly due to increasing competition in mobile segment
  • 38. Japan: the ongoing take up of FTTP/B will drive broadband revenue growth during the forecast period
  • 39. Japan: mobile revenue will decrease due to falling mobile prices, while FTTP/B service take up will help to maintain fixed segment revenue growth
  • 40. Japan: forecast changes
  • 41. New Zealand: the total telecoms service revenue will increase at a slow rate due to high competition in both the mobile and fixed markets
  • 42. New Zealand: FTTP/B and BFWA will be the two most widespread technologies in the fixed broadband market by 2024
  • 43. New Zealand: mobile customers will continue to migrate from prepaid to postpaid plans; competition in the FBB market will remain intense
  • 44. New Zealand: forecast changes
  • 45. Singapore: revenue will decline in both the fixed and mobile segments, which are highly saturated, even by regional standards
  • 46. Singapore: fibre will become fully ubiquitous by 2019
  • 47. Singapore: the mobile market has been strongly affected by the entry of a fourth MNO
  • 48. Singapore: forecast changes
  • 49. South Korea: the total telecoms service revenue will increase modestly, driven by growing mobile and fixed broadband revenue
  • 50. South Korea: 5G services for consumers were launched in April 2019
  • 51. South Korea: the launch of 5G mobile plans will help to reduce price pressure; FBB revenue will grow due to the migration towards gigabit offers
  • 52. South Korea: forecast changes
  • 53. Taiwan: the total telecoms revenue will gradually stabilise over the forecast period
  • 54. Taiwan: FTTP/B will overtake DSL as the predominant access technology by 2023
  • 55. Taiwan: MNOs will struggle to monetise the rapid increase in dataconsumption; fixed broadband penetration will resume its growth
  • 56. Taiwan: forecast changes
  • 57. Methodology
  • 58. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 59. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 60. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 61. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 62. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 63. About the authors
  • 64. About the authors
  • 65. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 66. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 67. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, developed Asia Pacific, 2018 2024
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, developed Asia Pacific, 2018 and 20241
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for developed Asia Pacific
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the seven countries modelled individually in developed Asia Pacific, 2018
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in developed Asia Pacific
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019 2024), by country, developed Asia Pacific
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, developed Asia Pacific (USD billion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, developed Asia Pacific (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, developed Asia Pacific (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, developed Asia Pacific (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, developed Asia Pacific (USD per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, developed Asia Pacific (MB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, developed Asia Pacific (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, developed Asia Pacific (USD billion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, developed Asia Pacific (GB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Australia (AUD billion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Australia (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Australia, 2014 2024
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Australia (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Australia, 2014 2024
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Australia (AUD per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Australia (MB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Australia (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Australia, 2014 2024
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Hong Kong (HKD billion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Hong Kong (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Hong Kong, 2014 2024
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Hong Kong (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Hong Kong, 2014 2024
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Hong Kong (HKD per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Hong Kong (MB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Hong Kong (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Hong Kong, 2014 2024
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Japan (JPY trillion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Japan (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Japan, 2014 2024
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Japan (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Japan, 2014 2024
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Japan (JPY per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Japan (MB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Japan (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Japan, 2014 2024
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, New Zealand (NZD billion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, New Zealand (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, New Zealand, 2014 2024
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, New Zealand (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, New Zealand, 2014 2024
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, New Zealand (NZD per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, New Zealand (MB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, New Zealand (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, New Zealand, 2014 2024
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Singapore (SGD billion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Singapore (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Singapore, 2014 2024
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Singapore (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Singapore, 2014 2024
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Japan (JPY per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Singapore (MB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Singapore (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Singapore, 2014 2024
  • Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, South Korea (KRW trillion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, South Korea (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, South Korea, 2014 2024
  • Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, South Korea (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, South Korea, 2014 2024
  • Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, South Korea (SKW per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, South Korea (MB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, South Korea (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, South Korea, 2014 2024
  • Figure 81: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Taiwan (TWD billion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 82: Mobile connections by type, Taiwan (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 83: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Taiwan, 2014 2024
  • Figure 84: Fixed connections by type, Taiwan (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 85: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Taiwan, 2014 2024
  • Figure 86: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Taiwan (TWD per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 87: Mobile data traffic per connection, Taiwan (MB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 88: Broadband connections by technology, Taiwan (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 89: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Taiwan, 2014 2024
  • Figure 90a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 90b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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