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市場調查報告書

通訊業者的Capex全球市場:2017年∼2025年的動態與預測

Telecoms Capex: Worldwide Trends and Forecast 2017-2025

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 810797
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 26 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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通訊業者的Capex全球市場:2017年∼2025年的動態與預測 Telecoms Capex: Worldwide Trends and Forecast 2017-2025
出版日期: 2019年03月21日內容資訊: 英文 26 Slides
簡介

數位化和5G是通訊業者Capex的主要增長因素,為了最大限度地提高投資報酬率(ROI),需要進行密切調整。

本報告涵蓋了通訊業者的Capex預測,包括通訊業者、供應商和投資者的重大資本支出趨勢,提供系統性的資訊。

執行摘要

Capex一般動向

  • 由於FTTx支出減少,Capex成長緩慢,從未在2015年達到峰值
  • Capex增長,大多由重視5G/數位轉型的主要CSP團體帶動
  • 固網CSP的Capex因為使用現有的FTTx網路而降低,但2024年之後,直到5G裝置的成本降低,MNO都會面臨高資本支出

行動上網與5G

  • 由於4G擴大與5G發展,行動上網成為Capex的主要增長因素
  • Capex對5G的影響只限於2023年之前,主要影響基礎建設
  • 5G發展與數位投資的合作不如從前預測的密切
  • 5G和2018年∼2022年的頻段需求增加有關

固網的主要趨勢

  • FTTx的支出,在2016年達到高峰,現在已經下降
  • 在FTTx的支出有所放緩,放長線,核心升級,數位投資是穩定的
  • 有線電視公司轉向多元化的收入,為了降低CPE成本投資數位平台
  • EMAP是2位數固網線路Capex成長的唯一地區

CSP的Capex成長領域

  • Capex成長的主要增長因素轉移至數位基礎建設
  • 行動上網Capex的RAN市佔率減少
  • IT Capex模式大幅變動
  • CSP逐漸活用數位基礎建設,改變網路
  • Capex/Opex比例轉向Opex,以共享和外包減少Capex

CSP檔案

  • CSP有6個種類,因應多元商業模式採用不同投資模式
  • 有4個主要投資策略
  • 在新興市場的固網CSP,增加了小規模的開支
  • 整合CSP支持新的收入來源,為了提高Capex,試圖活用資產
  • 先進市場的整合CSP和行動CSP,顯著有助於行動網路的建設,等

預測方法和前提條件

關於作者和Analysys Mason

目錄

"Digitalisation and 5G will be the key drivers of telecoms capex growth in the 2020s, but they need to be more closely aligned to maximise the return on investment."

It will take a long time for communications service provider (CSP) capex levels to recover following their decline in 2016, and they will not reach the 15-year peak from 2015 during the forecast period. Wireless networks are increasingly driving capex because the most intensive period of FTTx build-out will be ending just as 5G is starting to take off. The sharp fall in FTTx spending in the 2020s will only be partially offset by other wireline investments such as long-haul and cloud. Non-CSPs are gradually coming into play, are introducing new patterns of investment and, sometimes, are co-investing with CSPs.

This is Analysys Mason's first comprehensive forecast of every aspect of telecoms operator capex and it provides an invaluable analysis of the key capex trends for operators, vendors and investors, at a time when spending on fibre, wireless and digital technology are increasingly co-dependent.

THE REPORT PROVIDES:

  • a detailed breakdown of CSP capex to 2025, well into the early 5G era
  • an in-depth view of how 5G, as well as related developments such as virtualisation and automation, will affect the patterns of investment
  • capex envelopes for six different CSP profiles with very different spending priorities
  • capex forecasts broken down by 7 regions plus China, and by 10 categories of spending including access, core, IT, infrastructure, digital and non-network assets.

Table of Contents

  • 7. Executive summary
  • 8. Executive summary: 5G spending will offset the decline in FTTx capex from 2019 onwards; digital infrastructure and new entrants will also drive capex growth
  • 9. General capex trends
  • 10. Capex will grow slowly during the forecast period and will not reach the peak seen in 2015, mainly because of the slow down in FTTx spending
  • 11. Capex growth will mainly be driven by the select group of CSPs that is focused on 5G or digital transformation; some of these CSPs will be new entrants
  • 12. Fixed CSPs' capex intensity will drop as they make use of existing FTTx networks, but MNOs face high capex intensity until 5G equipment costs fall after 2024
  • 13. Mobile and 5G
  • 14. Mobile will be the main driver of capex due to the expansion of 4G and the deployment of 5G, both of which will require investment in more than the RAN
  • 15. The impact of 5G on capex will be limited before 2023 and will mainly affect infrastructure; after that, 5G capex will increase and will overtake that for 4G
  • 16. 5G roll-outs are not as closely aligned to digital investments as previously expected; 5G capex growth until 2023 will therefore be slower than anticipated
  • 17. 5G will lead to an increase in spectrum demand from 2018-2022, although the shift in focus to high-capacity bands and the rise in sharing will limit price inflation
  • 18. Key trends for fixed networks
  • 19. FTTx spending is now in decline having peaked in 2016, though new overbuilds could be enabled by higher levels of infrastructure sharing
  • 20. Long-haul lines, core upgrades and digital investments will keep fixed-line capex stable as FTTX spending slows down
  • 21. Cablecos will reduce their capex more effectively than other fixed-centric CSPs, and will invest in digital platforms to diversify revenue and reduce CPE cost
  • 22. EMAP will be the only region with double-digit fixed-line capex growth; China and DVAP will see sharp declines but Western Europe will be resilient
  • 23. Areas of growth for CSP capex
  • 24. The main driver of capex growth will be the migration to digital infrastructure and not solely 5G, though the RAN will remain the largest outlay in the CSP business
  • 25. The RAN share of mobile capex will decline, but the absolute spending on the RAN will not, thereby diminishing MNOs' hopes of a new low-cost 5G architecture
  • 26. There will be a significant change in IT capex patterns in order to support the gradual migration of networks towards virtualisation, white boxes and software
  • 27. CSPs will gradually make use of digital infrastructure to transform their networks; this will account for the biggest growth in network spending from 2021
  • 28. The capex/opex ratio will shift towards opex as CSPs look for capex savings through sharing and outsourcing
  • 29. Profiles of CSPs that will drive capex
  • 30. There are six types of CSP, each with a distinctive capex profile, and they will adopt different patterns of investment as their business models diversify
  • 31. There are four main investment strategies with varying levels of risk, and CSPs' choices will determine how aggressively they will adopt digital transformation
  • 32. Fixed CSPs in emerging markets will grow their spending from a small base, but others will keep work to stabilise or reduce capex
  • 33. Integrated CSP account for the bulk of capex, but they are looking to use their assets to support new revenue streams and improve capex intensity
  • 34. Integrated and mobile CSPs in developed markets will commit heavily to mobile network build-outs; fixed CSPs will shift spending to IT and digital infrastructure
  • 35. Fixed CSPs in emerging markets will shift their capex to IT and digital platforms to improve agility, but for mobile networks will dominate capex for other players
  • 36. Fixed and infrastructure capex will decline sharply in China once it is 5G-ready; virtualised mobile platforms will dominate capex from 2020
  • 37. Non-traditional telecoms investors will play an increasing role in telecoms markets, and their capex will increase by 25%
  • 38. Co-investment and asset sharing will start to change capex patterns and increase efficiencies for established CSPs
  • 39. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 40. About the author
  • 41. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 42. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 43. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: CSP capex for three key growth areas and total CSP capex, 2017--2025
  • Figure 2: Total telecoms capex spending, worldwide, 2010--2025
  • Figure 3: CSP capex, fixed and mobile, worldwide, 2017--2025
  • Figure 4: Capex by non-traditional CSPs (excluding towercos), fixed and mobile, worldwide, 2017--2025
  • Figure 5: Capex/revenue ratio for CSPs (excluding OTT and UTF), worldwide, 2017--2025
  • Figure 6: Mobile capex in developed markets, 2017--2025
  • Figure 7: Mobile capex in emerging markets, 2017--2025
  • Figure 8: FTTx capex allocated to 5G, 2017--2025
  • Figure 9: Mobile capex allocated to 5G, 2017--2025
  • Figure 10: RAN capex, 5G and other radio technologies, 2017--2025
  • Figure 11: Virtualised and conventional mobile network capex for RAN, core and transport, 2021
  • Figure 12: Virtualised and conventional mobile network capex for RAN, core and transport, 2025
  • Figure 13: Normalised value per MHz/pop for C-band spectrum, in auctions since 2017
  • Figure 14: Annualised capex for spectrum licences (excluding annual fees), worldwide, 2017--2025
  • Figure 15: FTTx capex, access and infrastructure, 2017--2025
  • Figure 16: Fixed access capex, by technology, 2017--2025
  • Figure 17: Capex for four fixed-line areas, 2017--2025
  • Figure 18: Total cableco capex, worldwide, 2017--2025
  • Figure 19: Cumulative capex investment profile, cablecos and other fixed-line CSPs, 2017--2025
  • Figure 20: Fixed-line capex in developed markets, 2017--2025
  • Figure 21: Fixed-line capex in emerging markets, 2017--2025
  • Figure 22: Total CSP capex by investment category, cumulative, 2017--2025
  • Figure 23: Cumulative mobile capex by category, 2017--2025
  • Figure 24: Conventional IT and digital infrastructure capex, 2017--2025
  • Figure 25: IT capex, by category, 2017--2025
  • Figure 26: Network transformation capex, by category, region and CSP type, 2021
  • Figure 27: Network transformation capex, by category, region and CSP type, 2025
  • Figure 28: Opex as a percentage of total network and IT spending by CSPs, 2017--2025
  • Figure 29: CSPs' targets for mobile networks and IT opex by 2025
  • Figure 30: Analysys Mason's six CSP profiles
  • Figure 31: Four alternative investment approaches for CSPs
  • Figure 32: Total mobile capex, by CSP profile, 2017--2025
  • Figure 33: Total fixed and mobile capex, by CSP profile, 2017--2025
  • Figure 34: Total fixed capex, by CSP profile, 2017--2025
  • Figure 35: The multi-functional roles of fibre in the new access layer
  • Figure 36: Breakdown of cumulative capex for MNOs in developed markets (%), --2025
  • Figure 37: Breakdown of cumulative capex for integrated CSPs in developed markets (%), 2017--2025
  • Figure 38: Breakdown of cumulative capex for fixed CSPs in developed markets (%), 2017--2025
  • Figure 39: Breakdown of cumulative capex for MNOs in emerging markets (%), --2025
  • Figure 40: Breakdown of cumulative capex for integrated CSPs in emerging markets (%), 2017--2025
  • Figure 41: Breakdown of cumulative capex for fixed CSPs in emerging markets (%), 2017--2025
  • Figure 42: Breakdown of cumulative capex for Chinese CSPs (%), 2017--2025
  • Figure 43: Capex for fixed, mobile and converged networks, China, 2017--2025
  • Figure 44: Non-traditional CSP telecoms capex, by player type, worldwide, --2025
  • Figure 45: Non-traditional CSP fixed network capex, by category, worldwide, --2025
  • Figure 46: Additional telecoms network capex from industrial co-investment, 2017--2025
  • Figure 47: Potential routes for co-investment in 5G networks
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