"By 2022, the OTT video spend will be almost twice that of IPTV, worldwide. OTT video will generate a spend per year of USD84 billion by 2022."
In 2017, worldwide consumer spend on IPTV reached USD35 billion; OTT video spend reached the same figure. By 2022, however, OTT video will be the more lucrative business of the two. Spend will grow at a CAGR of 19% between 2017 and 2022, and OTT video will generate a spend per year of USD84 billion compared to the USD47 billion for IPTV.
This report provides:
- forecasts for the number of premium OTT video users, spend and average spend per user (ASPU)
- forecasts split by category of OTT video service - linear channels, linear events, TVoD (rental), TVoD (ownership) and SVoD
- forecasts for 47 individual countries, all world regions, and the world as a whole
- an overview of the trends and drivers in the market.
Key performance indicators:
- Users/subscribers
- Population penetration
- Spend
- ASPU
All of the above split by the following categories of OTT video service:
- Linear - channels (paid-for and free)
- Linear - events
- TVoD - rental
- TVoD - ownership
- SVoD (paid-for and free)
Also split by device type:
- Smartphone
- Tablet
- PC
- TV set (including STB, smart TVs, consoles and other streamers)
GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE:
| Region: | Countries (if applicable) |
| Worldwide | |
| Western Europe | Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK |
| WCentral and Eastern Europe | Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine |
| Middle East and North Africa | Israel, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | |
| North America | Canada, USA |
| Latin America | |
| Emerging
Asia-Pacific | China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand |
| Developed
Asia-Pacific | Australia, Japan, South Korea |
ABOUT THE AUTHORS:
Martin Scott (Principal Analyst) co-ordinates Analysys Mason's research initiatives related to media, TV, fixed broadband and convergence. Hemanages the Video Strategies and Fixed Broadband Services research programmes. Martin has held numerous positions within Analysys Mason during the last 13 years, including heading the company's Consumer Services, Data and Regional Markets practices. He also launched Analysys Mason's Connected Consumer Survey and Consumer smartphone usage series of research. His areas of specialisation include telcoTVstrategy, OTT video and media, consumer smartphone usage, the bundling and pricing of multi-play services, including quadruple-play bundling, customer satisfaction and consumer-facing marketing strategy. He also specialises in statistics, surveys and the analysis of primary research.
Roman Orvisky (Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he worked in the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role. During hisstudies, Roman focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network analysis and browsing data analysis. Roman holds a Bachelor's degree in business from Durham University, and an MSc in marketingresearch from the Tilburg University School of Economics and Management.
Table of Contents
- xecutive summary
- 8.Paid-for OTT video services' worth will increase from USD35 billion at the end of 2017 to USD84 billion by 2022
- 9.How we classify services in this forecast
- 10.SVoD services will account for three quarters of all retail revenue growth between 2017 and 2022
- 11.All regions will register double-digit CAGRs between 2017 and 2022 for subscribers and retail revenue
- 12.Key recommendations for TV and video stakeholders
- 13.Worldwide forecasts and regional comparison
- 14.Worldwide: North America will have the highest penetration of premium OTT video services by 2022
- 15.Worldwide: Paid-for OTT video services' worth will increase from USD35 billion at the end of 2017 to USD84 billion by 2022
- 16.Worldwide: There will be 778 million premium OTT video users by 2022
- 17.SVoD will be the growth engine of OTT video and the majority of SVoD subscriptions will come from emerging Asia-Pacific by 2022
- 18.TVoD retail revenue will continue to grow and the service is particularly valuable in Europe
- 19.The growth of linear OTT services will be driven primarily by existing rights holders, with particular traction in DVAP and NA
- 20.Regional forecasts
- 21.Western Europe: SVoD will account for 70% of consumer spend on OTT by 2022 but live streaming content will be worth USD2.3 billion per year too
- 22.Western Europe: Operators' role in launching linear services, and integrating OTT SVoD into their STBs, will significantly affect the market
- 23.Western Europe: Almost 20% of the OTT video spend in Ireland, Italy, Switzerland and the UK will be for linear services by 2022
- 24.Central & Eastern Europe: Live streaming content will account for 26% of OTT spend by 2022, mainly driven by telecoms sports services in Turkey
- 25.Central & Eastern Europe: SVoD has struggled to gain scale but OTT linear channels have established a valuable presence
- 26.Central & Eastern Europe: The relative importance of SVoD, TVoD and linear services varies significantly by market -Turkey is a notable outlier
- 27.MENA: Spend will increase at a 16% CAGR but from a very low base as pay TV, operator-funded models and piracy constrain take-up
- 28.MENA: Operators will control the growth of OTT in the region through partnerships, service integration/bundling and their own OTT services
- 29.MENA: There is a consistently low penetration of premium OTT video across the region and SVoD is the most popular application
- 30.North America: ASPU will climb rapidly from multiple service take-up; mass-market linear services will be worth over USD6 billion by 2022
- 31.North America: Premium OTT video will be worth USD25 billion by 2022; rights holders will take multiple routes to market
- 32.North America: 118 million paying OTT users by 2022
- 33.EMAP (excluding China): Only around half of the 167 million users of premium OTT video services in 2022 will pay for them directly
- 34.EMAP (excluding China): B2B2C models will drive OTT use in the region; OTT linear channels will also become
- 35.China: Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent will try to monetise their large active user bases in 2017 to triple spending to nearly USD20 billion in 2022
- 36.China: SVoD and live streaming services will both try to convert ad-supported services to paying subscriptions, but only SVoD will succeed
- 37.EMAP: Regional trends are dominated by China
- 38.DVAP: More than half of OTT video spend in the region is from Japan, but penetration is higher in South Korea, and ASPU is greater in Australia
- 39.DVAP: Aggressive operator-led linear OTT services in Japan and South Korea will constrain direct spend, but subscription numbers will soar
- 40.DVAP: Linear services will have a stronger presence in terms of subscribers and spend in this region than elsewhere
- 41.LATAM: Retail revenue will be heavily dominated by SVoD generally, and Netflix in particular
- 42.LATAM: The number of SVoD subscribers will grow from 20 million in 2017 to 55 million by 2022
- 43.SSA: ASPU is unstable due to the changing popularity of service types
- 44.SSA: Operator-bundled OTT services will start to play a larger role from 2018 onwards
- 45.Forecast methodology and assumptions
- 46.Our spend forecasts focus on the direct flow of money between consumers and OTT video providers
- 47.About the authors and Analysys Mason
- 48.About the authors
- 49.About Analysys Mason
- 50.Research from Analysys Mason
- 51.Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures
- Figure 1: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, worldwide, -2022
- Figure 2: OTT video retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2017-
- Figure 3: OTT video retail revenue growth and user growth by worldwide region, -2022
- Figure 4: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenues for OTT video, and premium OTT video user penetration, worldwide by region, 2022
- Figure 5: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, worldwide, -2022
- Figure 6: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, worldwide, 2017-
- Figure 7: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, worldwide, 2017-
- Figure 8: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, worldwide, 2013-2022
- Figure 9: Distribution of SVoD subscribers by world region, 2016-2022
- Figure 10: OTT transactional VoD retail revenue by region, worldwide, 2013-
- Figure 11: Users of paid-for OTT linear channels and linear events by region, worldwide, 2013-2022
- Figure 12: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Western Europe, 2013-2022
- Figure 13: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, -2022
- Figure 14: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2017-2022
- Figure 15: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, Western Europe, 2013-2022
- Figure 16: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenues for OTT video, and premium OTT video user penetration, Western Europe, 2022
- Figure 17: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, CEE, 2013-2022
- Figure 18: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, CEE, 2017-2022
- Figure 19:OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, CEE, 2017-2022
- Figure 20: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, CEE, 2013-2022
- Figure 21: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenues for OTT video, and premium OTT video user penetration, Central and Eastern Europe, 2022
- Figure 22: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, MENA, 2013-2022
- Figure 23: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, MENA, 2017-2022
- Figure 24: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, MENA, 2017-2022
- Figure 25: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, MENA, 2013-2022
- Figure 26:SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenues for OTT video, and premium OTT video user penetration, Middle East and North Africa, 2022
- Figure 27: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, NA, 2013-2022
- Figure 28: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, NA, 2017-2022
- Figure 29: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, NA, 2017-2022
- Figure 30: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, NA, 2013-2022
- Figure 31: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenues for OTT video, and premium OTT video user penetration, North America, 2022
- Figure 32: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, EMAP excluding China, 2013-2022
- Figure 33: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, EMAP excluding China, 2017-2022
- Figure 34: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, EMAP excluding China, 2017-2022
- Figure 35: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, EMAP excluding China, 2013-2022
- Figure 36: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, China, 2013-2022
- Figure 37: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, China, 2017-2022
- Figure 38: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, China, 2017-2022
- Figure 39: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, China, 2013-2022
- Figure 40: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenues for OTT video, and premium OTT video user penetration, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2022
- Figure 41: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, DVAP, 2013-2022
- Figure 42: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, DVAP, 2017-2022
- Figure 43: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, DVAP, 2017-2022
- Figure 44: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, DVAP, 2013-2022
- Figure 45: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenues for OTT video, and premium OTT video user penetration, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016 and 2022
- Figure 46: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, LATAM, 2013-2022
- Figure 47: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, LATAM, 2017-2022
- Figure 48: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, LATAM, 2017-2022
- Figure 49: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, LATAM, 2013-2022
- Figure 50: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, SSA, 2013-2022
- Figure 51: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, SSA, 2017-2022
- Figure 52: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, SSA, 2017-2022
- Figure 53: OTT video users and ASPU by business model, SSA, 2013-2022
- Figure 54: Scope of our premium OTT video spend forecasts
