"The total number of OTT video users will reach 915 million by 2023, led by growth in the adoption of SVoD services."
915 million people will use premium OTT video services by 2023, up from 492 million in 2018. Increased adoption of subscription video on demand (SVoD) will be the main driver of this growth, but linear (live streaming) services will become an important part of the OTT market.
This report provides:
- a forecast of the number of OTT users, their retail revenue (spend) and the average revenue per user (ASPU)
- forecasts split by category of OTT video service (SVoD, TVoD, linear)
- forecasts for eight regions
- an analysis detailing the individual regional trends.
Key performance indicators:
- Users/subscribers
- Population penetration
- Spend
- ASPU
All of the above split by the following categories of OTT video service:
- Linear - channels (paid-for and free)
- Linear - events
- TVoD - rental
- TVoD - ownership
- SVoD (paid-for and free)
- operator OTT
Also split by device type:
- Smartphone
- Tablet
- PC
- TV set (including STB, smart TVs, consoles and other streamers)
Geographical coverage:
Worldwide
Western Europe
- Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK
Central and Eastern Europe
- Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Turkey
Middle East and North Africa
- Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE
Sub-Saharan Africa
North America
Latin America
Emerging Asia-Pacific
- China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam
Developed Asia-Pacific
- Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea
Table of Contents
- 7.Executive summary
- 8.The total spend on OTT video services will more than double between 2018 and 2023, from USD42 billion to USD96 billion
- 9.Two thirds of the OTT retail revenue growth between 2018 and 2023 will come from SVoD services; revenue from linear services will have the largest growth rate
- 10.Retail revenue will grow at a faster rate than the number of users across all regions thanks to an increase in service stacking and greater adoption of linear services
- 11.Worldwide forecasts and regional comparison
- 12.Worldwide: OTT video penetration will be the highest in NA and DVAP; revenue from linear services will grow significantly in all regions during the forecast period
- 13.Worldwide: spend on OTT video services will grow from USD42 billion to USD96billion between 2018 and 2023
- 14.Worldwide: the total number of OTT users will reach 915 million in 2023, most of which will subscribe to at least one SVoD service
- 15.Worldwide: SVoD will continue to be the main driver of OTT user base growth; the SVoD user base will increase by over 400 million between 2018 and 2023
- 16.Worldwide: the total retail revenue from TVoD services will reach USD8.1 billion by 2023; Western Europe will account for over a third of it
- 17.Worldwide: nearly 10% of households will use linear OTT services by 2023; the take-up in North America and DVAP will continue to be greater than that in other regions
- 18.Worldwide: revenue from pay-TV providers' OTT services will account for nearly a quarter of the total revenue from OTT video services by 2023
- 19.Regional trends
- 20.Western Europe: SVoD retail revenue will almost double between 2018 and 2023; the linear services share of the total spend will grow from 18% to 29%
- 21.Western Europe: SVoD will continue to be the most-popular retail model for OTT video in Western Europe, but linear service take-up will grow more rapidly
- 22.Western Europe: linear OTT services will account for 28% of the total OTT spend by 2023, up from just 18% in 2018
- 23.Central and Eastern Europe: the value of OTT video is constrained by low-priced traditional services and piracy, but the total retail revenue will still more than double
- 24.Central and Eastern Europe: the take-up of SVoD is growing at a similar pace to that of linear channels; new users are predominately based in Russia and Turkey
- 25.Central and Eastern Europe: the penetration of premium OTT services will remain relatively low in the region, except in Turkey, where linear services are very popular
- 26.Middle East and North Africa: OTT spend will double between 2018 and 2023 as OTT video take-up will continue to grow from a relatively limited base
- 27.Middle East and North Africa: day passes and microtransactions will help to drive premium OTT adoption, causing the number of SVoD and linear events users to grow
- 28.Middle East and North Africa: premium OTT video penetration will remain relatively low across the region; Qatar and the UAE are notable outliers
- 29.Sub-Saharan Africa: the introduction of new, affordable OTT services will cause ASPU to decline slightly from 2018 onwards, but revenue will grow rapidly
- 30.Sub-Saharan Africa: the number of OTT video users will quadruple, partly due to the increasing popularity of operator-bundled OTT services
- 31.China: OTT players' investments in original content will result in an increase in service stacking, leading to ASPU growth during the forecast period
- 32.China: SVoD will continue to dominate the OTT market; 99% of OTT users will subscribe to at least one SVoD service in 2023
- 33.EMAP excl. China: OTT revenue will be dominated by SVoD because many linear services are being bundled free of charge, rather than paid for separately
- 34.EMAP excl. China: many consumers will take free OTT video services bundled with their mobile or fixed tariffs; the importance of linear/live content will increase
- 35.Emerging Asia-Pacific: premium OTT video penetration will be the highest in China and Malaysia due to the high popularity of SVoD services
- 36.Developed Asia-Pacific: OTT video retail revenue growth will continue to be driven by SVoD services in the majority of countries in the region
- 37.Developed Asia-Pacific: most OTT video users in DVAP are based in Japan; the market in Australia is similar to that in Japan, but that in New Zealand is different
- 38.Developed Asia-Pacific: revenue from linear services will grow rapidly in Australia and New Zealand following operator linear OTT service launches
- 39.North America: the total premium OTT spend will grow by USD17 billion between 2018 and 2023, driven by an increase in OTT ASPU and higher user penetration
- 40.North America: there will be nearly 120 million premium OTT users, most of whom will subscribe to SVoD services by 2023
- 41.Geographical coverage: the penetration of OTT services will be high in both Canada and the USA, but service usage will differ between the two countries
- 42.Latin America: SVoD will account for nearly 90% of the premium OTT spend in 2023, the majority of which will come from Netflix
- 43.Latin America: the total number of SVoD users will more than double between 2018 and 2023, growing from 31 million to 66 million44.Forecast methodology and assumptions
- 45.Our spend forecasts focus on the direct flow of money between consumers and OTT video providers
- 46.How we classify OTT video services in this forecast
- 47.About the authors and Analysys Mason
- 48.About the authors
- 49.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
- 50.Research from Analysys Mason
- 51.Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures
- Figure 1: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, worldwide, 2015-2023
- Figure 2: OTT video retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2018-2023
- Figure 3: Growth in OTT video retail revenue and the number of OTT users, and ASPU, by worldwide region, 2018-2023
- Figure 4: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, by region, worldwide, 2023
- Figure 5: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, worldwide, 2013-2023
- Figure 6: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, worldwide, 2018-2023
- Figure 7: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, worldwide, 2018-2023
- Figure 8: OTT video users by service type, worldwide, 2015-2023
- Figure 9: Distribution of SVoD users by world region, 2018-2023
- Figure 10: OTT TVoD retail revenue by region, worldwide, 2015-2023
- Figure 11: Household penetration of linear OTT services by region, worldwide, 2015-2023
- Figure 12: Retail revenue from operator OTT and third-party OTT services, worldwide, 2015-2023
- Figure 13: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Western Europe, 2015-2023
- Figure 14: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2018-2023
- Figure 15: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2018-2023
- Figure 16: OTT video users by service type, Western Europe, 2015-2023
- Figure 17: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, Western Europe, 2023
- Figure 18: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2023
- Figure 19: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2018-2023
- Figure 20: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2018-2023
- Figure 21: OTT video users by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2023
- Figure 22: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, Central and Eastern Europe, 2023
- Figure 23: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2015-2023
- Figure 24: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2018-2023
- Figure 25: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2018-2023
- Figure 26: OTT video users by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2015-2023
- Figure 27: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, Middle East and North Africa, 2023
- Figure 28: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2023
- Figure 29: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018-2023
- Figure 30: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018-2023
- Figure 31: OTT video users by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2023
- Figure 32: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, China, 2015-2023
- Figure 33: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, China, 2018-2023
- Figure 34: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, China, 2018-2023
- Figure 35: OTT video users by service type, China, 2015-2023
- Figure 36: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, emerging Asia-Pacific excluding China, 2015-2023
- Figure 37: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, emerging Asia-Pacific excluding China, 2018-2023
- Figure 38: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, emerging Asia-Pacific excluding China, 2018-2023
- Figure 39: OTT video users by service type, emerging Asia-Pacific excluding China, 2015-2023
- Figure 40: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2023
- Figure 41: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2023
- Figure 42: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2018-2023
- Figure 43: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2018-2023
- Figure 44: OTT video users by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2023
- Figure 45: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration premium OTT video users, developed Asia-Pacific, 2023
- Figure 46: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, North America, 2015-2023
- Figure 47: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, North America, 2018-2023
- Figure 48: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, North America, 2018-2023
- Figure 49: OTT video users by service type, North America, 2015-2023
- Figure 50: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, North America, 2023
- Figure 51: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Latin America, 2015-2023
- Figure 52: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Latin America, 2018-2023
- Figure 53: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Latin America, 2018-2023
- Figure 54: OTT video users by service type, Latin America, 2015-2023
- Figure 55: Scope of our premium OTT video spend forecasts
