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市場調查報告書

新興亞太地區的行動服務:趨勢與預測 2017-2022年

Mobile Services in Emerging Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 357202
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 15 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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新興亞太地區的行動服務:趨勢與預測 2017-2022年 Mobile Services in Emerging Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日期: 2017年12月08日 內容資訊: 英文 15 Slides
簡介

本報告涵括新興亞太地區 (EMAP) 的行動服務,提供全球市場背景,地區分析,及主要6個國家 (中國,印尼,馬來西亞,菲律賓,泰國,越南) 的趨勢分析。

摘要整理

全球趨勢

  • 預測期間行動業務收入將繼續增長,在2022年前達到8570億美元

地區趨勢

  • 收入和ARPU:用戶數量的增加將抵消ARPU的小幅下滑,導致零售收入穩定增長
  • 行動普及率:EMAP的主動行動SIM卡普及率將從2016年的85%上升到2022年的99%
  • 行動連接:4G將成為預測期間的領先技術,2022年佔行動連接的64%
  • 智慧型手機和LTE:由於技術改進,智慧型手機普及率將從2016年的52%增長到2022年的81%
  • 行動寬頻:技術移植和改善將推動行動寬頻連接的快速增長
  • 行動ARPU:預測期內整體ARPU值將下降至-2.2%,最終穩定在5美元附近
  • 數據和收入:行動網絡建設和升級將推動收入增長,並提高數據流量

各國趨勢

  • 中國:4G的快速增長和創新產品推動了蜂窩數據的使用,5G預計將在2020年前後推出
  • 印度尼西亞:激烈的競爭將導致更多創新的產品供應,並促使4G普及率的增長
  • 馬來西亞:激烈的競爭限制了數據收入的增長 - 運營商把重點放在後付費產品上以獲得更高的利潤
  • 菲律賓:激烈的競爭將阻礙運營商的盈利能力,收入增長將是微不足道的
  • 泰國:網絡速度的提高將推動4G行動用戶數量和數據收入的增長
  • 越南:2017年技術推出後,4G用戶數量將呈指數增長

預測手法·前提條件

關於著者·ANALYSYS MASON

圖表清單

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目錄

We expect mobile service revenue in emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP) to grow rapidly, thanks to the migration to 4G and increasing mobile data usage.

We examine key trends and drivers and provide a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the EMAP region and for six individually modelled countries.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of 127 mobile KPIs for emerging Asia-Pacific and for six key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE:

Countries modelled individually

  • China
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Philippines
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam

DATA COVERAGE:

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMS, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Cai Shiyu (Research Analyst) contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore office. He had been involved in data collection process as well as analysis of telecoms market trends in developed and emerging Asia-Pacific. Before joining Analysys Mason, he worked as an intern with business development division of SAP, and conducted qualitative and quantitative research on cloud computing market. Shiyu holds a Bachelor's degree in finance and operations management at NUS Business School, Singapore.

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary
  • 6.Telecoms total retail revenue will increase over the forecast period, but the growth rate will slow down
  • 7.Worldwide trends
  • 8.Worldwide: Mobile service revenue will continue to increase during the forecast period, reaching USD857 billion in 2022
  • 9.Regional trends
  • 10.Revenue and ARPU: Increasing subscriber numbers will offset a slight decline in ARPU, leading to stable growth in retail revenue
  • 11.Mobile penetration: Active mobile SIM penetration in EMAP will grow from 85% in 2016 to 99% in 2022
  • 12.Mobile connections: 4G will be the leading technology over the forecast period, accounting for 64% of mobile connections in 2022
  • 13.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration will grow from 52% in 2016 to 81% in 2022 due to technology improvements
  • 14.Mobile broadband: Technology migration and improvements will drive the rapid growth of mobile broadband connections
  • 15.Mobile ARPU: Overall ARPU will fall at a CAGR of -2.2% during the forecast period, stabilising around USD5 towards the end
  • 16.Data and revenue by generation: Mobile network construction and upgrades will drive revenue growth and boost data traffic
  • 17.Country-level trends
  • 18.China: Fast 4G take-up and innovative products drive cellular data usage, and 5G is expected to launch around 2020
  • 19.Indonesia: Intensified competition will lead to more innovative product offerings and result in 4G penetration growth
  • 20.Malaysia: Intense competition limits data revenue growth -operators focus on postpaid offerings for higher margins
  • 21.Philippines: Intensified competition will hamper operators' profitability, and revenue growth will be marginal
  • 22.Thailand: Improved network speeds will drive growth in 4G mobile subscriber numbers and data revenue
  • 23.Vietnam: The number of 4G subscribers will grow exponentially after the launch of the technology in 2017
  • 24.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 25.About the authors
  • 26.About Analysys Mason
  • 27.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 28.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in emerging Asia-Pacific and worldwide, USD (2016) billion, 2012-2022
  • Figure 3: Mobile retail revenue by service type, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 4: Mobile retail revenue by service type, mobile service revenue and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
  • Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
  • Figure 6: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 7: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 8: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 9: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 10: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, China, 2012-2022
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, China, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, China
  • Figure 16: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Indonesia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Indonesia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Indonesia
  • Figure 19: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Malaysia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 20: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Malaysia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 21: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Malaysia
  • Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Philippines, 2012-2022
  • Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Philippines, 2012-2022
  • Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Philippines
  • Figure 25: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Thailand, 2012-2022
  • Figure 26: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Thailand, 2012-2022
  • Figure 27: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Thailand
  • Figure 28: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Vietnam, 2012-2022
  • Figure 29: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Vietnam, 2012-2022
  • Figure 30: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Vietnam
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