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市場調查報告書

無線網路資料流量:全球趨勢與預測

Wireless Network Data Traffic: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 350693
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 24 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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無線網路資料流量:全球趨勢與預測 Wireless Network Data Traffic: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日期: 2018年04月19日 內容資訊: 英文 24 Slides
簡介

本報告對世界各地無線網路的資料流量進行調查分析,提供了5年預測、主要趨勢、促進和抑制因素、成本影響、價格趨勢等系統性資訊。

執行摘要

世界的趨勢

  • 蜂巢式流量成長率偏高,新興亞太地區(EMAP)為最高
  • 拓展5G不會影響全世界蜂巢式成長率的低迷
  • 放寬行動網路的容量限制,使無限制方案成為可能
  • 無限制方案會增加行動資料流量
  • 無限制方案的使用者不一定是高權限用戶,使用情況不會自動改善
  • 無限制方案的使用,對蜂巢式資料流量成長率的影響越來越少
  • 影片佔了蜂巢式流量的大部分
  • 對非課稅相關流量的影響依電信商/應用程式不同而異

西歐

  • 西歐:資料流量繼續高成長
  • 西歐:無限制方案很普遍,但流量成長率低下

中歐和東歐

  • 中歐和東歐:智慧型手機流量持續高度成長
  • 中歐和東歐:未來幾年內成長將會多少失去勢頭

中東和北非

  • 中東和北非:許多市場的使用水準仍然適中
  • 中東和北非:缺乏創新的電信商減緩了許多市場的流量成長

在撒哈拉以南非洲

  • 在撒哈拉以南非洲地區:進一步的折扣和激烈的競爭,使資料流量強力成長
  • 在撒哈拉以南非洲地區:降價與拓展網路使流量成長率持續攀高

新興亞太地區 (EMAP)

  • 新興亞太地區:LTE流量出現顯著高度成長
  • 新興亞太地區:電信商致力於資料收益,行動資料流量成長率低下

先進亞太地區 (DVAP)

  • 先進亞太地區:流量成長率適度穩定
  • 先進亞太地區:採用5G不會大幅影響資料流量的增加趨勢

北美

  • 北美:無限制方案促進了美國資料流量的成長
  • 北美:美國撤換固定寬頻資料改用無線者偏少

拉丁美洲

  • 拉丁美洲:智利和巴西的成長率增加,墨西哥持續保持強勁
  • 拉丁美洲:促進流量成長的要素漸漸失去重要性

預測方法和前提條件

關於作者和Analysys Mason

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目錄

"Cellular traffic growth increased worldwide in 2017, driven in particular by strong growth in China and India."

Global annual cellular traffic growth totalled 98% in 2017, an increase over that from 2016. This report analyses the extent to which such growth will continue and will be impacted by the growing prevalence of plans including unlimited and zero-rated data, as well as the roll-out of 5G.

This report provides:

  • 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic worldwide, in 8 regions and for 33 selected countries and the Nordic region
  • analysis of the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic
  • discussion of the impact of cost and pricing on data traffic
  • analysis of the trends in private and public usage, and their effect on the use of mobile and Wi-Fi connectivity.

About the author

Stephen Wilson (Principal Analyst) works across Analysys Mason's Network Investment Strategies and Consumer Services practices. He is based in Analysys Mason's Singapore office, from where he closely follows market developments in the Asia-Pacific region. Recentareas of focus include how to accelerate a return on investment in FTTx deployments and how to drive prepaid to postpaid mobile migration. Stephen has more than 10 years of experience in the telecoms sector and is a graduate in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from St Catherine's College, Oxford University.

Table of Contents

  • 7.Worldwide trends
  • 8.Cellular traffic growth was higher in 2017 than in 2016, and was highest in the EMAP region
  • 9.5G roll-outs will not affect the declining cellular growth rates across the globe
  • 10.Capacity limitations in mobile networks are weakening, making unlimited plans more viable
  • 11.Unlimited plans can increase mobile data traffic, but the impact should not be overestimated
  • 12.Unlimited plan users are not necessarily power users and do not automatically have a faster growing usage than other subscribers
  • 13.Caveats on usage in unlimited plans mean that their impact on cellular data traffic growth is lessened
  • 14.Video is responsible for the majority of total cellular traffic for a range of operators across the globe
  • 15.The traffic implications associated with zero rating will differ by operator and application
  • 16.Western Europe
  • 17.Western Europe: 2017 was a year of continued strong growth in data traffic
  • 18.Western Europe: even with unlimited plans becoming more commonplace, traffic growth rates will fall
  • 19.Central and Eastern Europe
  • 20.Central and Eastern Europe: growth in smartphone traffic continues to be strong across the region
  • 21.Central and Eastern Europe: growth rates will lose some momentum over the next couple of years
  • 22.Middle East and North Africa
  • 23.Middle East and North Africa: usage levels remain modest in many markets although there are exceptions
  • 24.Middle East and North Africa: the lack of disruptive operators will constrain traffic growth in many markets
  • 25.Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 26.Sub-Saharan Africa: further price cuts and intense competition have helped to drive continuing strong growth in data traffic
  • 27.Sub-Saharan Africa: price reductions and network roll-outs will continue to ensure strong traffic growth rates
  • 28.Emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 29.Emerging Asia-Pacific: 2017 was a year of extremely high LTE traffic growth
  • 30.Emerging Asia-Pacific: operators' focus on data monetisation will reduce mobile data traffic growth rates
  • 31.Developed Asia-Pacific
  • 32.Developed Asia-Pacific: traffic growth rates were reasonably stable in 2017
  • 33.Developed Asia-Pacific: 5G uptake will not significantly impact the prevailing data traffic growth trends
  • 34.North America
  • 35.North America: unlimited plans have spurred increased data traffic growth in the USA
  • 36.North America: there will not be mass substitution of fixed broadband data usage in the USA
  • 37.Latin America
  • 38.Latin America: growth rates increased in Chile and Brazil in 2017, and remained strong in Mexico
  • 39.Latin America: today's traffic growth drivers will fade in importance over the forecast period
  • 40.Appendix
  • 41.The proportion of cellular traffic accounted for by video does not differ greatly between operators
  • 42.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 43.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 44.Definition of geographical regions [1]
  • 45.Definition of geographical regions [2]
  • 46.About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 47.About the author
  • 48.About Analysys Mason
  • 49.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 50.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Cellular data traffic, by region, 2015-2023
  • Figure 2: Cellular data traffic for developed economies, emerging economies and worldwide, 2015-2023, based on Analysys Mason's 2016 and 2017 forecastsFigure 3: Mobile data usage and spectrum utilisation (for spectrum of 2.6GHz and under only), June 2017, selected European countries
  • Figure 4: Cellular usage as a percentage of the busy-hour usage, by time of day, 3Q 2016Figure 5: Average 4G smartphone usage by selected market, 2017 Figure 6: Annual cellular data traffic growth rate, South Korea and Taiwan, 2012-2023 Figure 7: Average LTE usage per month and percentage of total LTE traffic from selected percentiles, South Korea, December 2017Figure 8: Cellular data traffic split by application, South Korea, 4Q 2017
  • Figure 9: Vodafone Italy customers' average usage per month before zero rating, and the average uplift seen as a result of zero ratingFigure 10: Annual rate of growth of cellular data traffic, selected Western Europe markets, 2015-2018
  • Figure 11: Cellular data traffic per head of the population per month, selected Western Europe markets, 2016 and 2017
  • Figure 12: Cellular data traffic by market, Western Europe, 2015-2023
  • Figure 13: Annual rate of growth of cellular data traffic, selected Central and Eastern Europe markets, 2015-2018
  • Figure 14: Cellular data traffic per head of the population per month, selected Central and Eastern Europe markets, 2016 and 2017
  • Figure 15: Cellular data traffic by market, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2023
  • Figure 16: Annual rate of growth of cellular data traffic, selected MENA markets, 2015-2018
  • Figure 17: Cellular data traffic per head of the population per month, selected MENA markets, 2016 and 2017
  • Figure 18: Cellular data traffic by market, MENA, 2015-2023
  • Figure 19: Annual rate of growth of cellular data traffic, selected SSA markets, 2015-2018
  • Figure 20: Cellular data traffic per head of the population per month, selected SSA markets, 2016 and 2017
  • Figure 21: Cellular data traffic by market, SSA, 2015-2023
  • Figure 22: Annual rate of growth of cellular data traffic, selected emerging Asia-Pacific markets, 2015-2018
  • Figure 23: Cellular data traffic per head of the population per month, selected emerging Asia-Pacific markets, 2016 and 2017
  • Figure 24: Cellular data traffic by market, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2023
  • Figure 25: Annual rate of growth of cellular data traffic, selected developed Asia-Pacific markets, 2015-2018
  • Figure 26: Cellular data traffic per head of the population per month, selected developed Asia-Pacific markets, 2016 and 2017
  • Figure 27: Cellular data traffic by market, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2023Figure 28: Annual rate of growth of cellular data traffic, Canada and the USA, 2015-2018
  • Figure 29: Cellular data traffic per head of the population per month, Canada and the USA, 2016 and 2017
  • Figure 30: Cellular data traffic by market, North America, 2015-2023
  • Figure 31: Annual rate of growth of cellular data traffic, selected Latin American markets, 2015-2018
  • Figure 32: Cellular data traffic per head of the population per month, selected Latin American markets, 2016 and 2017
  • Figure 33: Cellular data traffic by market, Latin America, 2015-2023
  • Figure 34: Proportion of cellular traffic accounted for by video, selected operatorsFigure 35a: Regional breakdown used in this report
  • Figure 35b: Regional breakdown used in this report
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