亞太地區的新興通訊市場趨勢、預測

本報告提供亞太地區的新興通訊市場潛力的相關調查，新興9個國家連線數，收益等的主要KPI的5年預測，全部區域及各國主要發展趨勢，市場成長及收益擴大的影響因素分析等彙整資料。

調查內容

• 調查對象國家
  • 孟加拉
  • 柬埔寨
  • 中國
  • 印度
  • 印尼
  • 馬來西亞
  • 緬甸
  • 尼泊爾
  • 巴基斯坦
  • 菲律賓
  • 斯里蘭卡
  • 泰國
  • 越南
• 主要KPI的5年預測
  • 連線數
    • 行動
      • 終端、行動寬頻、IoT
      • 預付/契約為基礎的
      • 2G、3G、4G、5G
      • 智慧型手機、非智慧型手機
    • 固定
      • 語音、寬頻、IPTV、撥接上網
      • 窄頻語音、VoBB
      • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、5G、其他
    • 固定、行動的語音流量
      • 發信時間、MoU
  • 收益
    • 行動
      • 服務、零售
      • 預付/契約為基礎的
      • 終端、行動寬頻、IoT
      • 終端語音、通訊、資料
    • 固定
      • 服務、零售
      • 語音、寬頻IPTV、撥接上網、BNS
      • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
    • 行動ARPU
      • SIM、終端
      • 預付/契約式
      • 終端語音、資料

"Telecoms service revenue in emerging Asia-Pacific will continue its upward trend, despite increasing pressure from market competition and government regulation."

The emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP) region contains some of the most dynamic telecoms markets and fastest growing economies in the world. This report examines key trends and drivers, and provides comprehensive telecoms market forecasts and insights for the region and for six modelled countries.

This report and associated data annex provide:

• a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the EMAP region as a whole and for 13 key countries
• an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
• an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
• a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Coverage

Table of Contents

• 8.Executive summary and recommendations
• 9.Revenue from both mobile and fixed services will increase steadily during the forecast period
• 10.The total telecoms retail revenue is expected to grow in all countries, but at different rates
• 11.Geographical coverage: most countries will see a significant growth in the adoption of 4G/5G and NGA
• 12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
• 13.Key recommendations for telecoms operators
• 14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
• 15.Market context: a higher GDP per capita tends to lead to a higher fixed broadband household penetration
• 16.Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
• 17.Key drivers at a glance for each emerging Asia-Pacific market
• 18.Market overview: the total telecoms service revenue will continue to grow, driven by the increasing number of connections
• 19.Mobile: monthly data consumption per connection will increase six-fold during 2018-2024, but the contract share of mobile connections will only grow marginally 20.Mobile: mobile penetration rates will increase in most countries, and will only decline in Cambodia and Malaysia due to a fall in multi-SIM ownership
• 21.Mobile: ARPU will decline in most countries during the forecast period due to growing competition and regulatory pressure
• 22.Mobile: increasing subscriber numbers and rising mobile data revenue will support the growth of mobile service revenue over the forecast period
• 23.Fixed: 91% of fixed broadband connections will be FTTP/B in 2024 due to significant investment in coverage expansion and migration from DSL
• 24.Fixed: China will continue to lead in terms of fixed broadband penetration, but rapid FTTP/B roll-outs in other countries means that the gap will narrow
• 25.Fixed: the lowest broadband ASPU in the region is in China thanks to government regulation and intense infrastructure competition
• 26.Fixed: competition and investment in NGA will drive the growth of fixed broadband household penetration in many countries in EMAP
• 27.Specialist business services: the demands for data connectivity and cloud will continue to drive other business services revenue growth
• 28.IoT: the automotive, smart buildings and smart cities sectors have the greatest potential for revenue growth
• 29.Pay TV: IPTV and DTH will drive future pay-TV retail revenue growth
• 30.Individual country forecasts
• 31.China: the total service revenue will continue to grow, but the market is reaching saturation point
• 32.China: growth in the adoption of 5G will accelerate from 2020
• 33.China: the Chinese telecoms market is the most-advanced telecoms market in EMAP
• 34.China: forecast changes
• 35.Indonesia: the number of mobile connections will recover rapidly following the large drop due to the 2018 prepaid SIM card registration regulation
• 36.Indonesia: the take-up of FTTP/B has grown rapidly; FTTP/B is now by far the most-widespread fixed broadband technology in Indonesia
• 37.Indonesia: ARPU will rise following the implementation of the prepaid SIM card registration regulation
• 38.Indonesia: forecast changes
• 39.Malaysia: mobile revenue growth will be marginal, but fixed service revenue will increase steadily during the forecast period
• 40.Malaysia: the number of fixed broadband connections will increase due to fibre network investment and the renewed popularity of BFWA
• 41.Malaysia: high levels of competition will limit the total telecoms revenue growth during the forecast period
• 42.Malaysia: forecast changes
• 43.Philippines: the expected entry of a third MNO and a challenging regulatory environment will lead to a moderate increase in mobile retail revenue
• 44.Philippines: the number of FBB connections will grow due to the strong take-up of fibre-based access
• 45.Philippines: competition will intensify in both the fixed and mobile markets following the commercial launch of Dito's services
• 46.Philippines: forecast changes
• 47.Thailand: total service revenue growth will be flat; marginal increases in fixed broadband revenue will be offset by the decreasing mobile revenue
• 48.Thailand: Thailand has some of the highest mobile data traffic per connection figures in the region
• 49.Thailand: extensive FTTH deployments will be the main driver for FBB revenue growth
• 50.Thailand: forecast changes
• 51.Vietnam: price competition in the prepaid mobile segment will lead to a decline in mobile service revenue
• 52.Vietnam: fibre will be the dominant technology in the fixed broadband market thanks to extensive FTTH roll-outs
• 53.Vietnam: high levels of competition will remain in the mobile and fixed markets during the forecast period
• 54.Vietnam: forecast changes
• 55.Methodology
• 56.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
• 57.Examples of forecast input drivers
• 58.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
• 59.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
• 60.About the authors and Analysys Mason
• 61.About the authors
• 62.About the authors
• 63.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
• 64.Research from Analysys Mason
• 65.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures [1]

• Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV1 retail revenue by type and total service revenue, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2018-2024
• Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2018 and 20241
• Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for emerging Asia-Pacific
• Figure 5: Metrics for the 13 countries modelled individually in emerging Asia-Pacific, 2018
• Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in emerging Asia-Pacific
• Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019-2024), by country, emerging Asia-Pacific
• Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, emerging Asia-Pacific (USD billion), 2014-2024
• Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia-Pacific (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, emerging Asia-Pacific (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, emerging Asia-Pacific (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, emerging Asia-Pacific (USD per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia-Pacific (MB per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, emerging Asia-Pacific (USD billion), 2014-2024
• Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, emerging Asia-Pacific (GB per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, China (CNY trillion), 2014-2024
• Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, China (billion), 2014-2024
• Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, China, 2014-2024
• Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, China (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, China, 2014-2024
• Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, China (CNY per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, China (MB per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, China (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, China, 2014-2024
• Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Indonesia (IDR trillion), 2014-2024
• Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Indonesia, 2014-2024
• Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Indonesia, 2014-2024
• Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Indonesia (IDR thousand per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Indonesia (MB per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Indonesia (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Indonesia, 2014-2024
• Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Malaysia (MYR billion), 2014-2024
• Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Malaysia, 2014-2024
• Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Malaysia, 2014-2024
• Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Malaysia (MYR per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Malaysia (MB per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Malaysia (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Malaysia, 2014-2024
• Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Philippines (PHP billion), 2014-2024
• Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Philippines (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Philippines, 2014-2024
• Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Philippines (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Philippines, 2014-2024
• Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Philippines (PHP per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Philippines (MB per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Philippines (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Philippines, 2014-2024
• Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Thailand (THB billion), 2014-2024
• Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Thailand (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Thailand, 2014-2024
• Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Thailand (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Thailand, 2014-2024
• Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Thailand (THB per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Thailand (MB per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Thailand (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Thailand, 2014-2024
• Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Vietnam (VND trillion), 2014-2024
• Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Vietnam, 2014-2024
• Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Vietnam, 2014-2024
• Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Vietnam (VND thousand per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Vietnam (MB per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Vietnam (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Vietnam, 2014-2024
• Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
• Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores