亞太地區的新興通訊市場趨勢、預測：2015-2020年

亞太地區的新興國家提供通訊業者絕大的市場機會。創新的服務和新世代終端，網路覆蓋範圍的擴大等成為對市場成長有大幅貢獻的要素。

本報告提供亞太地區的新興通訊市場潛力的相關調查、新興9個國家的連線數、收益等的主要KPI的5年預測、全部區域及各國主要發展趨勢、市場成長及收益擴大的因素分析等彙整資料。

調查內容

• 調查對象國家
  • 孟加拉
  • 中國
  • 印度
  • 印尼
  • 馬來西亞
  • 巴基斯坦
  • 斯里蘭卡
  • 泰國
  • 越南
• 主要KPI的5年預測
  • 連線數
    • 行動
      • 終端、行動寬頻、M2M
      • 以預付/契約為基礎
      • 2G、3G、4G
      • 智慧型手機、非智慧型手機
    • 固定
      • 語音、寬頻、網路電視、撥接上網
      • 窄頻語音、VoBB
      • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
  • 收益
    • 行動
      • 服務、零售
      • 以預付/契約為基礎
      • 終端、行動寬頻、M2M
      • 終端語音、通訊、資料
    • 固定
      • 服務、零售
      • 語音、寬頻網路電視、撥接上網、BNS
      • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
  • 語音流量
    • 固定、行動
      • 發信時間、MoU
  • ARPU
    • 行動
      • SIM、終端
      • 以預付/契約為基礎
      • 終端語音、資料

"The main telecoms retail revenue contributors in EMAP during the forecast period will continue to be mobile voice and handset data services, followed by fixed broadband and IPTV."

We forecast that fixed and mobile telecoms retail revenue will see grow at similar CAGRs of around 2% from 2017--2022 in the emerging Asia--Pacific (EMAP) region, driven by the fast growth in the number of 4G connections and fixed broadband network developments.

This report and associated data annex provide:

• a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the EMAP region as a whole and for 13 key countries
• an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
• an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
• a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverage		Key performance indicators
Region modelled Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP) Countries modelled individually Bangladesh Cambodia China India Indonesia Malaysia Myanmar Nepal Pakistan Philippines Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam	Connections Mobile Handset, mobile broadband, 1IoT2 Prepaid, contract 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G Smartphone, non-smartphone Fixed Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up Narrowband voice, VoBB DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other Fixed and mobile voice traffic Outgoing minutes, MoU	Revenue Mobile Service3, retail Prepaid, contract Handset, mobile broadband, 1IoT2 Handset voice, messaging, data Fixed Service3, retail Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other Mobile ARPU SIMs, handset Prepaid, contract Handset voice, data

¹ Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.
² IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.
³ Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

Table of Contents

• 9. Executive summary 10. Telecoms retail revenue for EMAP will increase over the forecast period, but the CAGR will fall from 5.1% (2012--2016) to 3.4% (2016--2022)
• 11. Retail revenue across the EMAP region will increase, with no countries in the region experiencing revenue decline over the period
• 12. Geographical coverage: most countries will see substantial technological development of fixed and mobile networks
• 13. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
• 14. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
• 15. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
• 16. Market context: telecoms service revenue in EMAP reached USD280 billion in 2016 (1.7% of total GDP); China contributed more than half
• 17. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
• 18. Key drivers at a glance for each emerging Asia--Pacific market
• 19. Market overview: the total telecoms service revenue will increase over the forecast period, reaching USD328 billion in 2022
• 20. Mobile: the amount of data traffic will increase dramatically over the forecast period with a CAGR of 61%
• 21. Mobile: Malaysia and Cambodia will be the only countries in the region with declining mobile penetration
• 22. Mobile: in most markets, competitive price pressure will outweigh data monetisation resulting in a decrease in the regional ARPU
• 23. Mobile: the markets in EMAP are at varying stages of development, but most operators will focus on data monetisation over the forecast period
• 24. Fixed: FTTP/B will account for 87.8% of fixed broadband connections in 2022
• 25. Fixed: China leads the way in broadband penetration thanks to substantial government-backed investment
• 26. Fixed: the broadband ASPU will decrease at an average rate of 2.6% per year as operators lower prices to attract mass-market customers
• 27. Fixed: increased fibre coverage and affordability will drive broadband penetration over the forecast period
• 28. Business services: operators will benefit from increasing other business services revenue
• 29. IoT: total revenue from the IoT value chain will grow to almost USD40 billion by 2022
• 30. Pay TV: strong growth in IPTV and satellite services will be at the expense of cable
• 31. Individual country forecasts
• 32. China: total service revenue will increase, driven by growth in mobile data ARPU and fixed broadband penetration
• 33. China: almost all mobile connections will be 4G/5G; this will increase mobile data usage and stabilise mobile ARPU
• 34. China: network investment has resulted in one of the most developed telecoms markets in the world
• 35. China: forecast changes
• 36. Indonesia: the overall revenue will peak in 2019 and then decrease as a result of the level of competition in the market
• 37. Indonesia: FTTP/B has become the fixed broadband technology with the highest share of connections
• 38. Indonesia: declining mobile ARPU will limit overall telecoms revenue growth, despite the scope for growth for fixed broadband
• 39. Indonesia: forecast changes
• 40. Malaysia: telecoms revenue will remain approximately constant at around MYR31 billion over the forecast period
• 41. Malaysia: the average mobile data usage per connection will increase at a CAGR of 60.6%, and will be the highest in EMAP
• 42. Malaysia: potential market consolidation should keep the ARPU stable, despite a saturated mobile market
• 43. Malaysia: forecast changes
• 44. Philippines: mobile handset service revenue will decrease over the forecast period, but the overall revenue will increase
• 45. Philippines: prohibitive pricing will deter consumers from taking postpaid subscriptions, despite the mobile data usage growth
• 46. Philippines: the eventual entry of the third mobile operator will shake up the Philippine telecoms market
• 47. Philippines: forecast changes
• 48. Thailand: total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue will peak at THB394 billion in 2020
• 49. Thailand: market competition will cause mobile and fixed broadband ASPU to decrease over the forecast period
• 50. Thailand: network improvement will result in one of the most technologically developed telecoms markets in EMAP
• 51. Thailand: forecast changes
• 52. Vietnam: extensive FTTP deployments will result in a fixed broadband retail CAGR of 12.9% over the forecast period
• 53. Vietnam: the volume of mobile data traffic per connection remains the lowest in the EMAP region
• 54. Vietnam: operators' fibre roll-outs will result in Vietnam being the only EMAP nation (other than China) to be 100% NGA in 2022
• 55. Vietnam: forecast changes
• 56. Methodology
• 57. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
• 58. Examples of forecast input drivers
• 59. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
• 60. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
• 61. About the author and Analysys Mason
• 62. About the author
• 63. About Analysys Mason
• 64. Research from Analysys Mason
• 65. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

• Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2012--2022
• Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP growth by country, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2016--2022
• Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2016 and 2022
• Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for emerging Asia-- Pacific
• Figure 5: Metrics for the 13 countries modelled individually in emerging Asia-- Pacific, 2016
• Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in emerging Asia-- Pacific
• Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017--2022), by country, emerging Asia--Pacific
• Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, emerging Asia-- Pacific (USD billion), 2012--2022
• Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia--Pacific (million), 2012-- 2022
• Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2012--2022
• Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, emerging Asia--Pacific (million), 2012-- 2022
• Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, emerging Asia--Pacific (million), 2012--2022
• Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, emerging Asia--Pacific (USD per month), 2012-- 2022
• Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), emerging Asia-- Pacific, 2012--2022
• Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia--Pacific (MB per month), 2012--2022
• Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2012--2022
• Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2012--2022
• Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2012--2022
• Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2012--2022
• Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, emerging Asia--Pacific (million), 2012--2022
• Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, emerging Asia--Pacific (USD billion), 2012--2022
• Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2012--2022
• Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, emerging Asia-- Pacific (GB per month), 2012--2022
• Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging Asia-- Pacific, 2012--2022
• Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging Asia-- Pacific, 2012--2022
• Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2012--2022
• Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2012--2022
• Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2012--2022
• Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2013--2022
• Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2013--2022
• Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, China (CNY trillion), 2012--2022
• Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, China (billion), 2012--2022
• Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, China, 2012--2022
• Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, China (million), 2012--2022
• Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, China, 2012-- 2022
• Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, China (CNY per month), 2012--2022
• Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, China (MB per month), 2012-- 2022
• Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, China (million), 2012--2022
• Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue -- current and previous forecasts, China, 2012--2022
• Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Indonesia (IDR trillion), 2012--2022
• Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2012--2022
• Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Indonesia, 2012--2022
• Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2012--2022
• Figure 40: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Indonesia, 2012-- 2022
• Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Indonesia (IDR thousand per month), 2012--2022
• Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Indonesia (MB per month), 2012-- 2022
• Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Indonesia (million), 2012-- 2022
• Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue -- current and previous forecasts, Indonesia, 2012--2022
• Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Malaysia (MYR billion), 2012--2022
• Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2012--2022
• Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Malaysia, 2012--2022
• Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2012--2022
• Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Malaysia, 2012-- 2022
• Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Malaysia (MYR per month), 2012--2022
• Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Malaysia (MB per month), 2012-- 2022
• Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Malaysia (million), 2012-- 2022
• Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue -- current and previous forecasts, Malaysia, 2012--2022
• Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Philippines (PHP billion), 2012--2022
• Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Philippines (million), 2012--2022
• Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Philippines, 2012--2022
• Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Philippines (million), 2012--2022
• Figure 58: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Philippines, 2012-- 2022
• Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Philippines (PHP per month), 2012--2022
• Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Philippines (MB per month), 2012--2022
• Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Philippines (million), 2012-- 2022
• Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue -- current and previous forecasts, Philippines, 2012--2022
• Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Thailand (THB billion), 2012--2022
• Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Thailand (million), 2012--2022
• Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Thailand, 2012--2022
• Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Thailand (million), 2012--2022
• Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Thailand, 2012-- 2022
• Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Thailand (THB per month), 2012--2022
• Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Thailand (MB per month), 2012-- 2022
• Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Thailand (million), 2012-- 2022
• Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue -- current and previous forecasts, Thailand, 2012--2022
• Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Vietnam (VND trillion), 2012--2022
• Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2012--2022
• Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Vietnam, 2012--2022
• Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2012--2022
• Figure 76: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Vietnam, 2012--2022
• Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Vietnam (VND thousand per month), 2012--2022
• Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Vietnam (MB per month), 2012-- 2022
• Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Vietnam (million), 2012-- 2022
• Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue -- current and previous forecasts, Vietnam, 2012--2022
• Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
• Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores