"There is significant investment occurring in non-incumbent FTTP networks in Western Europe, but this is not mirrored in all developed markets."
The overall wireline next-generation access (NGA) coverage growth will slow in some markets, but there are still significant opportunities for new infrastructure players to spend on FTTx. There is also considerable potential for further investment in fibre in many emerging markets.
This report provides:
- 7-year forecasts for flavours of FTTx and cable (DOCSIS3.0/3.1) coverage in 8 regions and 64 individual markets
- analysis of the key trends, drivers and inhibitors of network roll-out of FTTx
- an assessment of the level of capital expenditure out to 2025.
- Coverage (premises passed)
- Capex (split into network and connection)
- Split by architecture/technology:
- FTTC/VDSL or G.fast
- FTTB/VDSL or G.fast
- FTTP (split into incumbent and alternative operator)
- cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1 (note: capex is not provided for cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1).
The report and accompanying data annex provide forecasts for 8 regions and 64 individual countries.
|Western Europe||Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
|Central and Eastern Europe||Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine.
|Middle East and North Africa||Israel, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
|Sub-Saharan Africa||Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa.
|Emerging Asia-Pacific||China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
|Developed Asia-Pacific||Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan.
|North America||Canada, USA.
|Latin America||Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.
Table of Contents
- 5.Worldwide trends
- 6.There is still potential for growth in the global NGA coverage; this will be driven by NGA expansion in some emerging markets
- 7.FTTx capex will follow a downward trend over the forecast period driven by changing regional splits
- 8.Some emerging markets have lower-than-expected NGA coverage given the average income levels
- 9.India, Indonesia and Brazil will be leaders in terms of NGA coverage growth over the forecast period
- 10.The potential for new FTTP entrants differs according to the region
- 11.There is growing momentum behind FTTC-to-FTTP migration in many developed markets
- 12.There is a significant variation in FTTP connection costs depending on the market
- 13.Building types, regulation and video service requirements will all influence FTTP connection costs
- 14.Western Europe
- 15.There is strong interest in FTTP investment across Western Europe and this is reflected in continued high spending
- 16.Central and Eastern Europe
- 17.Investment in NGA infrastructure in CEE is focused on rural coverage expansion and the win-back strategies of incumbents in urban areas
- 18.Middle East and North Africa
- 19.Investment in FTTP will continue in markets in the Gulf region, and Egypt is leading the way for fibre roll-outs in the North African region
- 20.Sub-Saharan Africa
- 21.Challenges related to affordability and infrastructure availability will limit the number of FTTP deployments in Sub-Saharan Africa
- 22.Emerging Asia-Pacific
- 23.Upgrades to next-generation PON FTTP networks are becoming more commonplace in China and fixed broadband speeds are rapidly increasing
- 24.There are still opportunities for significant NGA coverage growth in EMAP, particularly in India
- 25.Developed Asia-Pacific
- 26.Upgrades to existing fibre deployments are becoming more important in DVAP
- 27.North America
- 28.FTTP is merely one of a number of technologies in which US operators are investing
- 30.There is significant growth in FTTP investments from incumbents, MNOs and smaller players in Brazil
- 31.Forecast methodology and assumptions
- 32.Geographical scope: forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
- 34.We take baseline costs for each technology and then apply several context-specific variables to determine total capex
- 35.Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: basic topologies
- 36.About the author and Analysys Mason
- 37.About the author
- 38.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
- 39.Research from Analysys Mason
- 40.Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures
- Figure 1: NGA coverage by technology, worldwide, 2014--2025
- Figure 2: FTTx capex, by worldwide region, 2014--2025
- Figure 3: NGA coverage at the end of 2018 and GDP per capita (PPP), emerging markets
- Figure 4: NGA coverage, selected emerging markets, 2018 and 2025
- Figure 5: Non-incumbent FTTP coverage, selected Western European countries, 2018 and 2025
- Figure 6: FTTC premises passed coverage by selected market, 2017--2025
- Figure 7: FTTx connection capex total and as a proportion of total FTTx capex, worldwide, 2018--2025
- Figure 8: FTTP connection costs by selected operator
- Figure 9: NGA coverage by technology, Western Europe, 2016--2025
- Figure 10: FTTx capex by technology, Western Europe, 2016--2025
- Figure 11: NGA coverage by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016--2025
- Figure 12: FTTx capex by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016--2025
- Figure 13: NGA coverage by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2016--2025
- Figure 14: FTTx capex by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2016--2025
- Figure 15: NGA coverage by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016--2025
- Figure 16: FTTx capex by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016--2025
- Figure 17: NGA coverage by technology, China, 2016--2025
- Figure 18: FTTx capex by technology, China, 2016--2025
- Figure 19: NGA coverage by technology, emerging Asia--Pacific excluding China, 2016--2025
- Figure 20: FTTx capex by technology, emerging Asia--Pacific excluding China, 2016--2025
- Figure 21: NGA coverage by technology, developed Asia--Pacific, 2016--2025
- Figure 22: FTTx capex by technology, developed Asia--Pacific, 2016--2025
- Figure 23: NGA coverage by technology, North America, 2016--2025
- Figure 24: FTTx capex by technology, North America, 2016--2025
- Figure 25: NGA coverage by technology, Latin America, 2016--2025
- Figure 26: FTTx capex by technology, Latin America, 2016--2025
- Figure 27: Countries covered in this report, by region
- Figure 28: Definitions used in this report
- Figure 29: Capex model outline
- Figure 30: Basic overview of FTTx network topologies and elements