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市場調查報告書

西歐的通訊市場趨勢、預測

Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 337314
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 40 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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西歐的通訊市場趨勢、預測 Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
出版日期: 2019年12月06日內容資訊: 英文 40 Slides
簡介

本報告提供西歐整體及主要16個國家330個以上的行動、固定KPI的5年預測,各行動、固定服務類型及主要各國趨勢、促進要素、預測的前提條件相關詳細的分析,業者的策略的概要,及對行動、固定業者的建議等彙整資料。

調查對象國家

  • 奧地利
  • 比利時
  • 丹麥
  • 芬蘭
  • 法國
  • 德國
  • 希臘
  • 愛爾蘭
  • 義大利
  • 荷蘭
  • 挪威
  • 葡萄牙
  • 西班牙
  • 瑞典
  • 瑞士
  • 英國

主要KPI的5年預測

  • 連線數
    • 行動
      • 終端、行動寬頻、IoT
      • 預付/契約為基礎的
      • 2G、3G、4G、5G
      • 智慧型手機、非智慧型手機
    • 固定
      • 語音、寬頻、IPTV、撥接上網
      • 窄頻語音、VoBB
      • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、5G、其他
  • 語音流量
    • 固定、行動的發信時間、MoU
  • 收益
    • 行動
      • 服務、零售
      • 預付/契約型
      • 終端、行動寬頻、IoT
      • 終端語音、通訊、資料
    • 固定
      • 服務、零售
      • 語音、寬頻、IPTV、撥接上網、商務服務
      • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
  • ARPU
    • 行動
      • SIM、終端
      • 預付/契約型
      • 終端語音、資料

本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

目錄

"Fixed broadband revenue will increase in Western Europe thanks to significant investments in FTTP/B network roll-outs and the growing take-up of high-speed plans."

We expect that the total telecoms service revenue in Western Europe (WE) will remain almost flat over the forecast period, and only the fixed broadband market has potential for significant revenue growth. The launch of 5G mobile services will only have a limited effect on mobile revenue growth due to intense competition in most countries in the region.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 330 mobile and fixed KPIs for Western Europe, as a whole and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Regions modelled

  • Western Europe (WE)

Countries modelled individually

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service,3 retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service,3 retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

1Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.

2IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.

3Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary and recommendations
  • 9. The total telecoms service revenue in Western Europe will grow marginally; revenue will only grow significantly in the fixed broadband market
  • 10. Overall, the telecoms retail revenue in Western Europe will increase at a moderate rate, but there will be significant differences between countries
  • 11. Geographical coverage: the NGA share of connections will only remain low in a few countries during the forecast period
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15. Market context: the mobile market in WE is saturated, but there is potential for fixed broadband household penetration growth in many countries
  • 16. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • 17. Key drivers at a glance for each Western Europe market
  • 18. Market overview: the total revenue will remain flat due to declining revenue from legacy services and intense competition in the mobile markets in most countries
  • 19. Mobile: blended ARPU will increase marginally, thanks to growing data usage and customers' migration to contract plans
  • 20. Mobile: mobile penetration in WE will remain high, but it will decrease in most countries during the forecast period
  • 21. Mobile: the evolution of ARPU will differ significantly between countries due to different market conditions and competitive landscapes
  • 22. Mobile: mobile service revenue will increase modestly over the forecast period; the launch of 5G services is expected to have a limited impact on revenue growth
  • 23. Fixed: the share of FTTP/B connections will increase significantly in WE, sustained by operators' aggressive roll-out targets in several countries
  • 24. Fixed: fixed broadband household penetration will continue to grow in all countries
  • 25. Fixed: consumer demand for high-speed broadband will drive ASPU growth in a few countries, but the ASPU trend for the region as a whole will remain flat
  • 26. Fixed: the total fixed broadband revenue in WE will continue to increase, sustained by a stable ASPU and a growing number of FBB connections
  • 27. Specialist business services: other business services revenue will continue to grow as enterprises migrate further towards cloud-based business solutions
  • 28. IoT: the largest share of revenue will come from the automotive sector; 5G has the potential to generate new sources of revenue, but not in the short-term
  • 29. Pay TV: retail revenue from pay-TV services will grow at a moderate rate, driven by the growing popularity of OTT services
  • 30. Individual country forecasts
  • 31. France: aggressive price competition in the French fixed market will lead to a decline in the total telecoms revenue during the forecast period
  • 32. France: government initiatives are driving technological developments in both the fixed and mobile segments
  • 33. France: investments in 5G and fibre will lead to a considerable increase in the take-up for both technologies, but will have a limited impact on revenue
  • 34. France: forecast changes
  • 35. Germany: the total telecoms service revenue will increase during the forecast period, mainly due to revenue growth in the mobile segment
  • 36. Germany: FTTC-based VDSL will be the most-widespread technology in the fixed broadband market by 2024
  • 37. Germany: Vodafone is emerging as Deutsche Telekom's leading challenger after its purchase of Liberty Global's cable network
  • 38. Germany: forecast changes
  • 39. Italy: intense competition will result in declining mobile revenue, whereas an increasing number of FBB connections will lead to growing fixed revenue
  • 40. Italy: the take-up of 5G services will accelerate from 2020 onwards once 5G coverage becomes nationwide
  • 41. Italy: competition in the mobile market is expected to remain high; a growing take-up of fibre-based network services will boost FBB penetration
  • 42. Italy: forecast changes
  • 43. Spain: telecoms revenue will enjoy modest growth across all segments
  • 44. Spain: mobile ARPU will be affected by stiff price competition; fixed broadband ASPU will prove to be more resilient
  • 45. Spain: saturation among middle-income and premium customers will continue to drive a shift in strategy among operators
  • 46. Spain: forecast changes
  • 47. UK: 5G launches and FTTP roll-outs will create a limited number of opportunities for revenue growth
  • 48. UK: all four MNOs have launched 5G services; the 5G share of connections will exceed 50% by 2023
  • 49. UK: the telecoms market in the UK is in a phase of technological transition, and operators are racing to roll out FTTP and 5G mobile services
  • 50. UK: forecast changes
  • 51. Methodology
  • 52. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 53. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 54. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 55. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 56. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 57. About the authors
  • 58. About the authors
  • 59. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 60. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 61. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Western Europe, 2018-2024
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Western Europe, 2018 and 2024
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Western Europe
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Western Europe, 2018
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Western Europe
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019-2024), by country, Western Europe
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2014-2024
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Western Europe (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Western Europe (EUR per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2014-2024
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, France (EUR billion), 2014-2024
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, France (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, France, 2014-2024
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, France (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, France, 2014-2024
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, France (EUR per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, France (GB per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, France (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, France, 2014-2024
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Germany (EUR billion), 2014-2024
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Germany (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Germany, 2014-2024
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Germany (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Germany, 2014-2024
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Germany (EUR per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Germany (GB per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Germany (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Germany, 2014-2024
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Italy (EUR billion), 2014-2024
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Italy (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Italy, 2014-2024
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Italy (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Italy, 2014-2024
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Italy (EUR per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Italy (GB per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Italy (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Italy, 2014-2024
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Spain (EUR billion), 2014-2024
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Spain (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Spain, 2014-2024
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Spain (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Spain, 2014-2024
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Spain (EUR per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Spain (GB per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Spain (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Spain, 2014-2024
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UK (GBP billion), 2014-2024
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, UK (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UK, 2014-2024
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, UK (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UK, 2014-2024
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, UK (GBP per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, UK (GB per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, UK (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, UK, 2014-2024
  • Figure 72a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 72b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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