撒哈拉以南非洲地區的通訊市場:趨勢、預測

本報告提供撒哈拉以南非洲地區的通訊市場相關調查，地區整體及主要11個國家的固定、行動通訊事業相關各種資料與其預測，市場趨勢、成長推動因素、預測影響因素分析，各主要公司的策略概要，各國主要專題，建議等彙整資料。

調查內容

• 主要KPI的5年預測:全地區、主要11個國家
• 市場趨勢、成長推動因素、預測影響因素分析
• 業者各公司的策略概要、各國話題
• 彙整、建議等

調查對象KPI範例

• 連線數
  • 行動
    • 終端、行動寬頻、M2M
    • 預付、契約型
    • 2G、3G、4G、5G
    • 智慧型手機、非智慧型手機
  • 固定
    • 語音、寬頻、網路電視、撥號
    • 窄頻語音、VoBB
    • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
• 收益
  • 行動
    • 服務、零售
    • 預付、契約型
    • 終端、行動寬頻、M2M
    • 終端語音、通訊、資料
  • 固定
    • 服務、零售
    • 語音、寬頻、網路電視、撥號、BNS
    • DSL、FTTH/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
• 語音流量
  • 固定&行動
    • 發信時間、MoU
• ARPU
  • 行動
    • SIM、終端
    • 預付、契約型
    • 終端語音、資料

"Digital services will play a key role in driving the growth in non-messaging and non-voice revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa as consumers look to operators for their financial services."

Data revenue will be an increasingly important component of the overall mobile retail revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Revenue growth will be driven by the higher demand for digital and internet services, greater access to smartphones, improved 3G service quality and coverage, expanding 4G coverage, better-value data offers and limited fixed broadband infrastructure.

This report and associated data annex provide:

• a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA, as a whole and for 11 key countries

• an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries

• an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison

• a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE:

Geographical coverage	Key performance indicators
Region modelled Sub-Saharan Africa Countries modelled individually Cameroon Côte d'Ivoire Ghana Kenya Nigeria Rwanda South Africa Sudan Tanzania Uganda Zambia	Connections Mobile Handset, mobile broadband, IoT Prepaid, contract 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G Smartphone, non-smartphone Fixed Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up Narrowband voice, VoBB DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other Voice traffic Fixed and mobile Outgoing minutes, MoU	Revenue Mobile Service, retail Prepaid, contract Handset, mobile broadband, IoT Handset voice, messaging, data Fixed Service, retail Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other ARPU Mobile SIMs, handset Prepaid, contract Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

• 8. Executive summary and recommendations
• 9. Sub-Saharan Africa is a highly mobile-centric region with a strong potential for fixed broadband revenue growth
• 10. SSA has an emerging telecoms market that will benefit from gradually increasing political and economic stability
• 11. Geographical coverage: the adoption of next-generation access (NGA) fixed broadband will increase the most in Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa
• 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
• 13. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
• 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
• 15. Market context: the low-income nature of the region has led to a low telecoms services spend in all countries except South Africa
• 16. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
• 17. Key drivers at a glance for each Sub-Saharan Africa market
• 18. Market overview: mobile revenue will continue to be the dominant contributor to total telecoms revenue, but fixed broadband revenue will also grow strongly
• 19. Mobile: the prepaid share of mobile connections will remain above 95%; this will play a role in keeping the ARPU low
• 20. Mobile: mobile penetration will increase across the region as increasing network coverage is balanced by the decreasing need for multiple SIMs
• 21. Mobile: consumer spending on data services and the migration to 3G/4G services will ensure a slower ARPU decline in some countries and increase ARPU in others
• 22. Mobile: SSA will remain a developing region in terms of mobile technology take-up because 3G will become the dominant form of mobile access
• 23. Fixed: fixed-wireless will remain the dominant form of access because operator investment in fixed infrastructure will be confined to wealthy metropolitan areas
• 24. Fixed: broadband household penetration will remain low in most countries due to a lack of affordability and coverage
• 25. Fixed: ASPU will remain largely stable on a regional level because increased NGA penetration will be offset by the natural decline in access prices
• 26. Fixed: the take-up of fixed-wireless access and fibre services will lead to fixed broadband penetration growth in the region
• 27. Specialist business services: the majority of business services revenue in SSA will be generated in Nigeria and South Africa
• 28. IoT: the number of cellular M2M connections will grow significantly, but M2M will remain a niche segment
• 29. Pay TV: total revenue growth will be driven by the increased take-up of DTH and pay-DTT services
• 30. Individual country forecasts
• 31. Ghana: mobile handset revenue growth will slow down during the forecast period; basic phones will continue to dominate the market
• 32. Ghana: revenue growth in the fixed market will be driven by increased demand for fibre, but the total number of fixed connections will remain low
• 33. Ghana: the growing demand for data and fibre will boost revenue, but there is still potential for moderate growth in the number of mobile connections
• 34. Ghana: forecast changes35.Kenya: fixed broadband service adoption will benefit from continued operator investment
• 36. Kenya: the continued adoption of 4G and the introduction of 5G will drive mobile traffic; fibre will consolidate its dominance in the FBB market
• 37. Kenya: there is potential for mobile market revenue growth thanks to increased network coverage and smartphone affordability 38.Kenya: forecast changes
• 39. Nigeria: the mobile market will grow (both in terms of the number of connections and revenue), despite uncertain economic conditions
• 40. Nigeria: increasing smartphone affordability and operators' LTE network expansions will sustain the take-up of 4G services
• 41. Nigeria: mobile data revenue will form a growing share of the total revenue, and the penetration of fixed broadband services will remain very low
• 42. Nigeria: forecast changes
• 43. South Africa: the relatively high disposable income of the population will support the growth in the demand for telecoms services
• 44. South Africa: the number of prepaid connections will grow, so the contract share of mobile connections will remain stable despite net growth
• 45. South Africa: the number of 4G connections will grow in the near future, but 5G will be the technology of choice for high-end consumers by 2024
• 46. South Africa: forecast changes
• 47. Tanzania: mobile service revenue will keep growing during the forecast period despite intense competition in the market
• 48. Tanzania: price competition in the mobile market will drive ARPU down; fixed-wireless will be the most-widespread broadband technology in 2024
• 49. Tanzania: there is potential for growth in the mobile market; penetration of fixed services will remain limited
• 50. Tanzania: forecast changes
• 51. Uganda: mobile service revenue growth will be modest despite the low level of mobile penetration
• 52. Uganda: the number of 4G connections will grow to be nearly a quarter of all mobile connections in 2024 due to the demand for fast data services
• 53. Uganda: there is potential for organic mobile revenue growth, but poverty and a large rural population will make it difficult to realise the potential
• 54. Uganda: forecast changes
• 55. Methodology
• 56. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
• 57. Examples of forecast input drivers
• 58. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
• 59. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
• 60. About the authors and Analysys Mason
• 61. About the authors
• 62. About the authors
• 63. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
• 64. Research from Analysys Mason
• 65. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures:

• Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018--2024
• Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018 and 20241
• Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Sub-Saharan Africa
• Figure 5: Metrics for the 11 countries modelled individually in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018
• Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019--2024), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa
• Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2014--2024
• Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (MB per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2014--2024
• Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (GB per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Ghana (GHS billion), 2014--2024
• Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Ghana (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Ghana, 2014--2024
• Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Ghana (thousand), 2014--2024
• Figure 31: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Ghana, 2014--2024
• Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Ghana (GHS per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Ghana (MB per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Ghana (thousand), 2014--2024
• Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Ghana, 2014--2024
• Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kenya (KES billion), 2014--2024
• Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Kenya (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kenya, 2014--2024
• Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Kenya (thousand), 2014--2024
• Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Kenya, 2014--2024
• Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kenya (KES thousand per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kenya (MB per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Kenya (thousand), 2014--2024
• Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Kenya, 2014--2024
• Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Nigeria (NGN trillion), 2014--2024
• Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Nigeria (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Nigeria, 2014--2024
• Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Nigeria (thousand), 2014--2024
• Figure 49: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Nigeria, 2014--2024
• Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Nigeria (NGN thousand per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Nigeria (MB per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Nigeria (thousand), 2014--2024
• Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Nigeria, 2014--2024
• Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, South Africa (ZAR billion), 2014--2024
• Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, South Africa (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, South Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, South Africa (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, South Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, South Africa (ZAR per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, South Africa (MB per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, South Africa (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, South Africa, 2014--2024
• Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Tanzania (TZS trillion), 2014--2024
• Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Tanzania (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Tanzania, 2014--2024
• Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Tanzania (thousand), 2014--2024
• Figure 67: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Tanzania, 2014--2024
• Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Tanzania (TZS thousand per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Tanzania (MB per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Tanzania (thousand), 2014--2024
• Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Tanzania, 2014--2024
• Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Uganda (UGX trillion), 2014--2024
• Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Uganda (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Uganda, 2014--2024
• Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Uganda (thousand), 2014--2024
• Figure 76: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Uganda, 2014--2024
• Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Uganda (UGX thousand per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Uganda (MB per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Uganda (thousand), 2014--2024
• Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Uganda, 2014--2024
• Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
• Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores