"Sub-Saharan Africa's telecoms market offers strong revenue growth opportunities in most markets, with 1 billion mobile connections and over USD46.6 billion in total service revenue forecast for 2022."
This report analyses the most important trends that are affecting fixed and mobile telecoms services in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and examines the impact that these trends will have over the next 5 years. The increased availability of low-cost smartphones and the improved coverage of 3G and 4G networks are driving the demand for data connectivity and the take-up of digital services. Investment in fixed-wireless and fibre technologies will also help to drive the adoption of fixed broadband.
THIS REPORT AND ASSOCIATED DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:
- a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA, as a whole and for 11 key countries
- an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
- an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
- a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.
COVERAGE:
| Geographical coverage | Key performance indicators |
Region modelled
Countries modelled individually
- Cameroon
- Côte d'Ivoire
- Ghana
- Kenya
- Nigeria
- Rwanda
- South Africa
- Sudan
- Tanzania
- Uganda
- Zambia
|
Connections
Mobile
- Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
- Prepaid, contract
- 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
- Smartphone, non-smartphone
Fixed
- Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
- Narrowband voice, VoBB
- DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other
Voice traffic
Fixed and mobile
|
Revenue
Mobile
- Service,3 retail
- Prepaid, contract
- Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
- Handset voice, messaging, data
Fixed
- Service,3 retail
- Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
- DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other
ARPU
Mobile
- SIMs, handset
- Prepaid, contract
- Handset voice, data
|
1Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.
2IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.
3Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) leads Analysys Mason's The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include operators' digital strategies, new telecoms opportunities and challenges, and consumer trends in growth markets. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Ovum, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications. Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer in the Institute for Communication Systems and Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information Systems Management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human-computer interaction from the University of Surrey.
Table of Contents
- 8.Executive summary
- 9.Telecoms revenue will grow at a CAGR of 2.7% during 2017-2022 to USD46.6 billion, amidst regulatory and macroeconomic challenges
- 10.The positive growth in telecoms retail revenue will be largely proportional to the economic growth across SSA, except in Ghana and Nigeria
- 11.Geographical coverage: we model 11 telecoms markets, which will account for 68.4% of SSA's overall telecoms service revenue in 2022
- 12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
- 13.Key recommendations for telecoms operators
- 14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
- 15.Market context: the 11 countries modelled provided 50.9% of the total population in SSA and 69.6% of its telecoms service revenue in 2017
- 16.Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
- 17.Key drivers at a glance for each market in Sub-Saharan Africa
- 18.Market overview: mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth but mobile voice will continue to dominate
- 19.Mobile: 3G will become the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for 13.7% of mobile connections in 2022
- 20.Mobile: the number of connections will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition, but growth will slow down
- 21.Mobile: spending on non-voice services will help to slow down the ARPU decline in most countries in SSA
- 22.Mobile: growth rates for SIM penetration will drop to single digits in most markets despite the sustained demand for mobile services
- 23.Fixed: wireless access will contribute the largest share of broadband revenue, but fibre will have the highest growth rate
- 24.Fixed: South Africa is a regional leader in the wired broadband market thanks to its developed infrastructure and level of competition
- 25.Fixed: increased popularity of wireless services will cause revenue to fall, while the growth of NGA will help to stabilise ASPU over the next 5 years
- 26.Fixed: fixed services in SSA generally offer poor quality at a high cost, and are not accessible to the majority of the region's population
- 27.Business services: enterprise revenue is small, but growing more rapidly in Sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions
- 28.IoT: cellular M2M revenue growth is substantial, but connectivity revenue remains small
- 29.Individual country forecasts
- 30.Ghana: non-voice services, including mobile money, will help to boost revenue despite modest growth in the number of SIMs
- 31.Ghana: reluctance to acquire LTE spectrum will limit its adoption, and fixed broadband will remain unaffordable for most customers
- 32.Ghana: modest growth in the number of mobile connections but a growing demand for data and financial services will boost revenue
- 33.Ghana: the forecasts for the number of handset connections and the fixed broadband revenue have been revised
- 34.Kenya: the mobile market has potential for growth, while cable's popularity and fibre deployments will support the fixed market
- 35.Kenya: the accelerated adoption of 4G will drive traffic growth; cable will maintain its dominance of the fixed broadband market
- 36.Kenya: there are solid growth prospects for mobile and fixed broadband adoption will benefit from better access
- 37.Kenya: there is a more optimistic outlook for fibre services thanks to recent deployments and stronger than expected uptake
- 38.Nigeria: difficult economic conditions will continue to impact the telecoms market in terms of investment and spend
- 39.Nigeria: increased 4G coverage and improved smartphone affordability will support the demand for data services
- 40.Nigeria: there is potential room for growth in the number of SIMs despite the crowded market and challenging operating conditions
- 41.Nigeria: projections for fixed broadband have been revised, taking into consideration new information that has become available
- 42.South Africa: service revenue will grow at a modest CAGR of 1.3% during 2017-2022, driven by handset data and fixed broadband
- 43.South Africa: there will be sustained growth for the mobile market but the fixed market will benefit from investment
- 44.South Africa: the open access model for LTE will delay the release of spectrum, while investment will help boost broadband coverage
- 45.South Africa: the forecast for mobile interconnect revenue is now more conservative in anticipation of a regime change
- 46.Tanzania: service revenue will reach TZS2.97 trillion in 2022, and more than 39.7% of this will be from mobile handset data
- 47.Tanzania: accelerated adoption of 4G services beyond urban centres will support data traffic and revenue growth
- 48.Tanzania: the mobile market offers growth opportunities despite competition while the fixed market will benefit from investment
- 49.Tanzania: mobile voice interconnect revenue will reduce substantially due to a new aggressive termination rates glide path
- 50.Uganda: mobile handset data and fixed broadband services will drive service revenue growth to almost UGX3.29 trillion by 2022
- 51.Uganda: 4G services will be adopted slowly because of their unaffordability, limited coverage and low smartphone penetration
- 52.Uganda: the growth in the number of mobile subscribers resumed in 2017, but revenue is set to decline as wireless dominates
- 53.Uganda: there is an optimistic short-term outlook for fixed broadband adoption but a modest projection for postpaid uptake
- 54.Methodology
- 55.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
- 56.Examples of forecast input drivers
- 57.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
- 58.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
- 59.AbouttheauthorandAnalysysMason
- 60.About the author
- 61.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
- 62.Research from Analysys Mason
- 63.Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures
- Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
- Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2022
- Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access (NGA) share of fixed broadband connections by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016 and 2022
- Figure 4: Summary of the key trends, drivers and assumptions for Sub-Saharan Africa
- Figure 5: Metrics for the 11 countries modelled individually in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017
- Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017-2022), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa
- Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2012-2022
- Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2012-2022
- Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
- Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2012-2022
- Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2012-2022
- Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD per month), 2012-2022
- Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
- Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (MB per month), 2012-2022
- Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
- Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
- Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
- Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
- Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), -2022
- Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), -2022
- Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
- Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (GB per month), 2012-2022
- Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
- Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
- Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, -2022
- Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, -2022
- Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
- Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2022
- Figure 26: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Ghana (GHS billion), 2012-2022
- Figure 27: Mobile connections by type, Ghana (million), 2012-2022
- Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Ghana, 2012-2022
- Figure 29: Fixed connections by type, Ghana (thousand), 2012-2022
- Figure 30: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Ghana, 2012-2022
- Figure 31: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Ghana (GHS per month), 2012-2022
- Figure 32: Mobile data traffic per connection, Ghana (MB per month), 2012-2022
- Figure 33: Broadband connections by technology, Ghana (thousand), 2012-2022
- Figure 34: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Ghana, 2012-2022
- Figure 35: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kenya (KES billion), 2012-2022
- Figure 36: Mobile connections by type, Kenya (million), 2012-2022
- Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kenya, 2012-2022
- Figure 38: Fixed connections by type, Kenya (thousand), 2012-2022
- Figure 39: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Kenya, 2012-2022
- Figure 40: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kenya (KES per month), 2012-2022
- Figure 41: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kenya (MB per month), 2012-2022
- Figure 42: Broadband connections by technology, Kenya (thousand), 2012-2022
- Figure 43: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Kenya, 2012-2022
- Figure 44: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Nigeria (NGN trillion), 2012-2022
- Figure 45: Mobile connections by type, Nigeria (million), 2012-2022
- Figure 46: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Nigeria, 2012-2022
- Figure 47: Fixed connections by type, Nigeria (thousand), 2012-2022
- Figure 48: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Nigeria, 2012-2022
- Figure 49: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Nigeria (NGN per month), 2012-2022
- Figure 50: Mobile data traffic per connection, Nigeria (MB per month), 2012-2022
- Figure 51: Broadband connections by technology, Nigeria (million), 2012-2022
- Figure 52: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Nigeria, 2012-2022
- Figure 53: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, South Africa (ZAR billion), 2012-2022
- Figure 54: Mobile connections by type, South Africa (million), 2012-2022
- Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, South Africa, 2012-2022
- Figure 56: Fixed connections by type, South Africa (million), 2012-2022
- Figure 57: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, South Africa, 2012-2022
- Figure 58: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, South Africa (ZAR per month), 2012-2022
- Figure 59: Mobile data traffic per connection, South Africa (MB per month), 2012-2022
- Figure 60: Broadband connections by technology, South Africa (million), 2012-2022
- Figure 61: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, South Africa, 2012-2022
- Figure 62: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Tanzania (TZS trillion), 2012-2022
- Figure 63: Mobile connections by type, Tanzania (million), 2012-2022
- Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Tanzania, 2012-2022
- Figure 65: Fixed connections by type, Tanzania (thousand), 2012-2022
- Figure 66: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Tanzania, 2012-2022
- Figure 67: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Tanzania (TZS per month), 2012-2022
- Figure 68: Mobile data traffic per connection, Tanzania (MB per month), 2012-2022
- Figure 69: Broadband connections by technology, Tanzania (thousand), 2012-2022
- Figure 70: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Tanzania, 2012-2022
- Figure 71: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Uganda (UGX trillion), 2012-2022
- Figure 72: Mobile connections by type, Uganda (million), 2012-2022
- Figure 73: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Uganda, 2012-2022
- Figure 74: Fixed connections by type, Uganda (thousand), 2012-2022
- Figure 75: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Uganda, 2012-2022
- Figure 76: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Uganda (UGX per month), 2012-2022
- Figure 77: Mobile data traffic per connection, Uganda (MB per month), 2012-2022
- Figure 78: Broadband connections by technology, Uganda (thousand), 2012-2022
- Figure 79: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Uganda, 2012-2022
- Figure 80a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
- Figure 80b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
