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Fixed Network Data Traffic: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2017-2023

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 297616
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 8 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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全球固定網絡數據流量趨勢·預測:2017-2023年 Fixed Network Data Traffic: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2017-2023
出版日期: 2017年12月07日 內容資訊: 英文 8 Slides



  • 替代廣播是固定流量增長的主要動力
  • 到2023年,新興市場將貢獻52%的互聯網流量
  • 在更成熟的行動市場中,固定和行動流量增長接近相等,但這可能會改變
  • 世界範圍內:NGA使用級別已經展示了非常強力的IP轉移
  • 電視是王者,而行動設備佔寬頻流量佔有率的比例不斷下降
  • 雲端上不僅僅是單播服務,線性內容也在這裡行動
  • 取代是一個新的威脅,所以頻寬佔用服務是固定運營商的最佳伙伴
  • 繁忙時間佔有率,不對稱比率和平均中值比率均顯示緩慢的長期趨勢





"Substitution is a renewed threat, so bandwidth-hogging services are the fixed operator's best friends."

Mobile networks command a miniscule share of data traffic worldwide, but commercial pressures are pushing mobile network operators (MNOs) inexorably towards an unlimited or nearly unlimited model. Fixed operators have depended on their capacity advantage to ward off any threat of substitution. Therefore, a strong understanding of the dominant trends in fixed-line data traffic is essential for fixed-line defensive and mobile-aggressive strategies.


  • 5-year forecasts of fixed data traffic for 8 global regions and 26 selected countries
  • analysis of the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic
  • discussion of the commercial trends in TV that drive linear video online.


The report provides forecasts for the following eight geographical regions.

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)

The report provides forecasts for the Nordic region and the following 25 countries.

  • Australia
  • Brazil
  • China
  • France
  • Germany
  • Hong Kong
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • Malaysia
  • Oman
  • Poland
  • Qatar
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Saudi Arabia
  • South Africa
  • South Korea
  • Spain
  • Turkey
  • UAE
  • UK
  • USA


  • Overall national and per broadband (BB) subscriber data, year total and year end
  • Internet, managed IP, multicast data
  • Next-generation access (NGA) and non-NGA split
  • Median usage
  • Fixed-mobile traffic ratios
  • Asymmetry ratios
  • Internet bandwidth per subscriber, average and busy hour
  • Global split by device (TV, smartphone, PC/other).


Rupert Wood (Research Director) is the lead analyst for our Fixed Networks, Wireless Networks and Convergence Strategies research programmes. His research focuses on the economics of next-generation networks and of convergence, and leads Analysys Mason's traffic forecasting. Rupert regularly participates at industry conferences, and contributes to the international press on a wide range of telecoms subjects. Rupert has a PhD from the University of Cambridge, where he was a Lecturer before joining Analysys Mason.

Simon Lumb (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms MarketMatrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Core Data research programmes. Simon holds a BSc in Physicsfrom Durham University, and during his studies conducted research on the collision of galaxies and helped to develop a GPS tracking system for a start-up company.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Worldwide trends
  • 6. Worldwide summary: Broadcast substitution is the main driver of fixed traffic growth
  • 7. Worldwide: Emerging markets will contribute 52% of Internet traffic by 2023
  • 8. Worldwide: In more-mature mobile markets, fixed and mobile traffic growth is closer to parity, but this could change
  • 9. Worldwide: NGA usage levels already demonstrate very strong IP migration for TV and video
  • 10. Worldwide: TV is king, and mobile devices constitute a small and declining share of broadband traffic
  • 11. Worldwide: It's not just unicast services that are in the Cloud; linear content is moving there too
  • 12. Worldwide: Substitution is a renewed threat, so bandwidth-hogging services are the fixed operator's best friends
  • 13. Worldwide: Busy-hour share, asymmetry ratios, and mean:median ratios all show slow, long-term trends
  • 14. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 15. This report measures and forecasts IP data generated by fixed broadband connections
  • 16. The report covers three broad classes of data traffic: Internet, managed IP and multicast IPTV
  • 17. The methodology focuses on shifts in video consumption and technologies
  • 18. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 19. About the authors
  • 20. About Analysys Mason
  • 21. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 22. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Total fixed IP traffic by type, worldwide, 2016-2023
  • Figure 2: Fixed IP traffic split by device, worldwide, 2014-2023
  • Figure 3: Total fixed Internet traffic, by worldwide region, 2015-2023
  • Figure 4: Fixed and mobile Internet data growth, and mobile share of total, Japan, 2H 2010-1H 2017
  • Figure 5: Fixed and mobile data annualised traffic growth, year-end 2016
  • Figure 6: Heavy usage service providers, year-end 2016 or nearest date
  • Figure 7: HKT breakdown of monthly FTTx data usage, year-end 2015 and year-end 2016
  • Figure 8: Average data usage per smartphone and per broadband connection, plus estimated smartphone share of fixed traffic, 3Q 2016
  • Figure 9: iPlayer share of TV content requests by device (excluding unknowns)
  • Figure 10: OTT video: the journey from the margins to the centre
  • Figure 11: Busy, average hour bandwidths per connection, busy/average ratios, USA and W Europe, 2015-2023
  • Figure 12: Upstream share of Internet traffic, developed regions and worldwide, 2015-2023
  • Figure 13: Mean and median usage per connection, Western Europe, 2015-2023
  • Figure 14: Scope of this forecast
  • Figure15: Simplified diagram of three classes of fixed IP data traffic
  • Figure 16: Fixed data traffic forecast methodology
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