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市場調查報告書

南美的通訊市場:趨勢與預測 2017-2022年

Latin America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 based on 2Q 2017 data

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品編碼 263238
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 41 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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南美的通訊市場:趨勢與預測 2017-2022年 Latin America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 based on 2Q 2017 data
出版日期: 2018年01月16日 內容資訊: 英文 41 Slides
簡介

本報告提供南美 (LATAM)的通訊市場相關調查,提供整體區域與主要6個國家的行動·固定KPI5年預測,主要國家的各行動·固定服務類型趨勢·促進要素·預測的前提條之詳細分析,並彙整業者策略和各國專題的概要,及行動·固定業者的主要建議等資料。

摘要整理

不同地區的預測·各國比較

  • 市場背景
  • 主要的吸收,合併,及市場進入
  • 各南美市場主要促進要素
  • 市場概要:由於主要行動終端·固定寬頻收益的成長,促進總收益持續上升
  • 行動:大規模的資料利用雖然帶來短期性的ARPU增加,但競爭將限制其未來增長
  • 固定:纜線數據機佔LATAM的固定寬頻連接3分之一以上
  • 商務服務:固定和行動專用業務解決方案仍將是至關重要的收入來源,但新服務將推動收入增長
  • IoT:IoT連接性的需求顯著提升,但相關的收益成長受限、其他

各國預測

  • 阿根廷:2020年之後,行動和固定部門的服務收入增長速度將放緩
  • 巴西:由於固定服務收入下降,電信總收入將略有下降
  • 智利:固定和行動領域的市場將會增長
  • 哥倫比亞:經過短暫的下降後,電信服務收入將再次增長
  • 墨西哥:行動用戶群將在整個預測期間繼續增長,總收入將恢復增長
  • 秘魯:行動終端收益及連線數的增加促進市場成長、其他

關於著者和Analysys Mason

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目錄

"Retail revenue growth will continue in Latin America during the forecast period, driven by an increase in fixed and mobile data revenue."

A better economic outlook for the region will not directly translate into better revenue for telecoms due to persisting political and financial uncertainty, and also due to affordability limitations in most of the countries in Latin America (LATAM). Mobile handset data revenue will continue to be a key driver of growth, and by 2022 it will account for well above half of the total telecoms revenue.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the LATAM region as a whole and six key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Latin America
    (LATAMM)

Countries modelled individually

  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Colombia
  • Mexico
  • Peru

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service,3 retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service,3 retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.

2 IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.

3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary
  • 9. Revenue in Latin America will grow during the forecast period driven by data demand
  • 10. Mobile handset data and fixed broadband will drive revenue growth in Latin America
  • 11. Geographical coverage: The share of NGA will be lowest in Mexico, while the share of 4G connections will lag behind in Colombia and Peru
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in Latin America
  • 13. Key recommendations for telecoms operators.
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15. Market context: The LATAM region will experience economic recovery but its effect on the telecoms sector will be limited
  • 16. Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
  • 17. Key drivers at a glance for each Latin America market
  • 18. Market overview: The total revenue increase will continue, driven mostly by mobile handset and fixed broadband revenue growth
  • 19. Mobile: Extensive data usage will result in a short-term ARPU increase but competition will limit its future growth
  • 20. Mobile: Declining mobile connection prices have reduced the need for multiple-SIM ownership
  • 21. Mobile: Telecoms revenue will continue to grow despite pressure from competition and increasing market saturation
  • 22. Fixed: Cable modems will account for more than a third of fixed broadband connections in LATAM
  • 23. Fixed: Broadband penetration growth will slow down towards the end of the forecast period due to limited service affordability
  • 24. Fixed: VDSL and fibre growth will be substantial but cable operations' position on the FBB market will remain strong
  • 25. Business services: Fixed and mobile dedicated business solutions will remain a vital revenue stream, but new services will drive revenue growth
  • 26. IoT: The growth in demand for IoT connectivity will be significant, but related revenue growth will remain limited
  • 27. Individual country forecasts
  • 28. Argentina: The pace of service revenue growth will slow down in both mobile and fixed segments after 2020
  • 29. Argentina: Mobile ARPU and FBB ASPU will continue to increase, but more slowly, as the inflation effect on revenue dwindles
  • 30. Argentina: Mobile data usage will drive mobile revenue growth, and the fixed broadband sector will continue to expand
  • 31. Argentina: Forecast changes
  • 32. Brazil: Total telecoms revenue will decline slightly due to the decrease in fixed service revenue
  • 33. Brazil: The strong decline in fixed voice ASPU will not be offset by the increasing fixed broadband revenue
  • 34. Brazil: The biggest economy in the region is expected to expand further, but total telecoms revenue will not follow
  • 35. Brazil: Forecast changes
  • 36. Chile: The market will grow in both fixed and mobile segments
  • 37. Chile: Prepaid to contract migration will continue and mobile ARPU will grow
  • 38. Chile: The country will lead fixed broadband penetration in LATAM by 2022
  • 39. Chile: Forecast changes
  • 40. Colombia: After a short period of decline, the telecoms service revenue will grow again
  • 41. Colombia: The number of cable modem and fibre broadband connections will increase, but fixed revenue growth will be limited
  • 42. Colombia: A slower return to revenue growth will partly be caused by new fiscal reforms and a slower recovery in the energy sector
  • 43. Colombia: Forecast changes
  • 44. Mexico: The mobile user base will continue to grow throughout the forecast period, and the total revenue will return to growth
  • 45. Mexico: The share of contract users will remain low despite a strong increase in LTE penetration
  • 46. Mexico: The revenue growth will be driven by an increasing subscriber base in the fixed and mobile segments
  • 47. Mexico: Forecast changes
  • 48. Peru: Market growth will be driven by mobile handset revenue and an increasing number of connections
  • 49. Peru: A strong 4G technology take-up and a growing number of mobile subscribers will help to stop the ARPU decline
  • 50. Peru: Mobile revenue growth will continue at a slower pace due to intense competition in the data segment
  • 51. Peru: Forecast changes
  • 52. Methodology
  • 53. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 54. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 55. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 56. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 57. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 58. About the author
  • 59. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 60. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 61. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures [1]

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Latin America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP growth by country, Latin America, 2016-2022
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access (NGA) share of fixed broadband connections by country, Latin America, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the six countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2016
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure challenges in Latin America
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017-2022), by country, Latin America
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Latin America (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Latin America (USD per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Latin America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, Latin America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Latin America (USD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Latin America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Latin America (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Latin America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Latin America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 24: Total IoT value Chain revenue by sector, Latin America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Latin America, 2013-2022
  • Figure 26: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Argentina (ARS billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 27: Mobile connections by type, Argentina (million), 2012-2022

List of figures [2]

  • Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Argentina, 2012-2022
  • Figure 29: Fixed connections by type, Argentina (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 30: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Argentina, 2012-2022
  • Figure 31: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPI, Argentina (ARS per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 32: Mobile data traffic per connection, Argentina (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 33: Broadband connections by technology, Argentina (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 34: Total fixed and mobile telecom service revenue, Brazil (BRL billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 35: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Brazil (BRL billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 36: Mobile connections by type, Brazil (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Brazil 2012-2022
  • Figure 38: Fixed connections by type, Brazil (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 39: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Brazil, 2012-2022
  • Figure 40: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Brazil (BRL per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 41: Mobile data traffic per connection, Brazil (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 42: Broadband connections by technology, Brazil (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 43: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Brazil, 2012-2022
  • Figure 44: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Chile (CLP trillion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 45: Mobile connections by type, Chile (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 46: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Chile, 2012-2022
  • Figure 47: Fixed connections by type, Chile, (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 48: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Chile, 2012-2022
  • Figure 49: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Chile (CLP thousand per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 50: Mobile data traffic per connection, Chile (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 51: Broadband connections by technology, Chile (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 52: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Chile, 2012-2022
  • Figure 53: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Colombia (COP trillion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 54: Mobile connections by type, Colombia (million), 2012-2022

List of figures [3]

  • Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Colombia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 56: Fixed connections by type, Colombia (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 57: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Colombia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 58: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Colombia (COP thousand per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 59: Mobile data traffic per connection, Colombia (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 60: Broadband connections by technology
  • Figure 61: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Colombia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 62: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Mexico (MXN billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 63: Mobile connections by type, Mexico (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Mexico, 2012-2022
  • Figure 65: Fixed connections by type, Mexico (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 66: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Mexico, 2012-2022
  • Figure 67: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Mexico (MXN per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 68: Mobile data traffic per connection, Mexico (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 69: Broadband connections by technology, Mexico (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 70: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Mexico, 2012-2022
  • Figure 71: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Peru (PEN billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 72: Mobile connections by type, Peru (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 73: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Peru, 2012-2022
  • Figure 74: Fixed connections by type, Peru (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 75: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Peru, 2012-2022
  • Figure 76: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Peru (PEN per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 77: Mobile data traffic per connection, Peru (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 78: Broadband connections by technology, Peru (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 79: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Peru, 2012-2022
  • Figure 80a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 80b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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