中東歐6個國家的通訊市場趨勢、預測 (2016-2021年)

中東歐地區的通訊業務收益的規模2015年雖然顯示了復甦，但是預計在預測期間將再次轉為減少。包含收費電視的業務收益總合預計從2015年的619億歐元，到2021年減少到604億歐元。

本報告提供中歐及東歐地區的通訊市場調查，地區整體及主要6個國家的連線數、收益的變化與預測，設備區分、服務區分、契約區分、技術區分等各種明細，主要的市場趨勢，市場的各種影響因素分析，主要業者的策略，對固定、行動通訊業者的建議等彙整資料。

調查內容

• 連線數
  • 行動
    • 終端、行動寬頻、M2M
    • 預付、加入型
    • 2G、3G、4G、5G
    • 智慧型手機、非智慧型手機
  • 固定
    • 語音、寬頻、網路電視、撥接上網
    • 窄頻語音、VoBB
    • DSL、FTTP/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
  • 固定&行動語音流量
    • 發信時間、MoU
• 收益
  • 行動
    • 服務、零售
    • 預付、加入型
    • 終端、行動寬頻、M2M
    • 終端語音、通訊、資料
  • 固定
    • 服務、零售
    • 語音、寬頻、網路電視、撥接上網、BNS
    • DSL、FTTP/B、電纜、BFWA、其他
  • 行動ARPU
    • SIM、終端
    • 預付、加入型
    • 終端語音、資料

個別調查對象國家

• 捷克
• 匈牙利
• 波蘭
• 羅馬尼亞
• 俄羅斯
• 土耳其

地區分析中包含的其他國

• 阿爾巴尼亞
• 白俄羅斯
• 波士尼亞
• 保加利亞
• 克羅埃西亞
• 愛沙尼亞
• 拉脫維亞
• 立陶宛
• 馬其頓
• 摩爾多瓦
• 蒙特內哥羅
• 塞爾維亞
• 斯洛伐克
• 斯洛維尼亞
• 烏克蘭

"Mobile handset data revenue will be the main source of retail revenue in Central and Eastern Europe, accounting for 29% of the total retail revenue in 2021."

Service revenue in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) visibly recovered in 2015, but we forecast slow service revenue decline in the forecast period. We anticipate that total service revenue (including pay TV) will decline to EUR60.4 billion in 2021, compared with EUR61.9 billion in 2015. Mobile retail revenue will increase at a CAGR of 0.1% and fixed retail revenue will decline at a CAGR of –1% in the forecast period.

THIS REPORT AND ASSOCIATED DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

• a 5-year forecast of more than 345 mobile and fixed KPIs for Central and Eastern Europe, as a whole and for 6 key countries

• an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries

• an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison

• a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Table of Contents

• 8. Executive summary
• 9. The decline of overall telecoms service revenue will be slow, contrasted by
• 10. Total telecoms retail revenue will decline by EUR0.2 billion between 2015
• 11. Mobile retail revenue will increase slightly by 2021, but the fixed segment
• 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile fixed markets
• 13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
• 14. Regional forecasts and cross Regional forecasts and cross
• 15. Geographical coverage: CEE will be dominated by NGA broadband access
• 16. Market context: Telecoms service revenue totalled EUR56.7 billion in 2015
• 17. Revenue and ARPU:Voice depreciation will drive revenue decline,but mobile handset data revenue will increase by 80% 2021
• 18. Mobile penetration: penetration will decline in most CEE countries, Mobile penetration: penetration will decline in most CEE countries, reaching an average of 142% the CEE population in 2021
• 19. Mobile connections: The 4G share of all mobile connections will reach 50% by 2021, despite delayed launches in Turkey and Ukraine by 2021
• 20. Smartphones and LTE: will account, on average, for 78% of handsets; LTE technology will account for half of all mobile connections handsets
• 21. Mobile broadband: 4G will account for more than have of all mobile connections, but service take up will slow down
• 22. Mobile ARPU: Average ARPU will decline in most CEE countries due to intense price competition, but the decline will slow down by 2021
• 23. Data and revenue by generation: 4G will contribute most to mobile service revenue due to its rapid roll-out and 2G/3G network replacement
• 24. Fixed services: FTTP/B connections will account for more than half of all fixed broadband connections in 2021
• 25. Fixed broadband: Household penetration in CEE will increase from 47% 2015 to 55% in 2021
• 26. Key drivers at a glance for each Central and Eastern European market
• 27. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
• 28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
• 29. Individual country forecasts
• 30. Czech Republic: Revenue decline will slow down as mobile prices are bottoming out and the fixed broadband market grows
• 31. Czech Republic - mobile: ARPU will continue to come under pressure from competition, which will ease off in the future
• 32. Czech Republic - fixed: Fixed -wireless will continue to be the most popular broadband access technology
• 33. Poland: Mobile handset data revenue will continue to increase but price competition drives the total revenue down
• 34. Poland Poland - mobile: Declining voice revenue will be offset by growth in handset data and mobile broadband revenue
• 35. Poland Poland - fixed: The number of fixed broadband connections will increase following expanded network coverage
• 36. Russia: Fixed-mobile substitution will drive a decline in revenue as cheap mobile calls replace fixed voice traffic
• 37. Russia - mobile: Commercial launch of 5G is expected within the forecast with the FIFA World Cup used as a showcase
• 38. Russia - fixed: Fixed fixed: Fixed -mobile voice substitution accelerated in 2015, while FTTP roll -out is driving the broadband market
• 39. Turkey: Increasing 4G coverage and service take -up, supported by broadband investments will drive revenue growth
• 40. Turkey: The launch of LTE in April 2016 will drive mobile handset data usage and revenue growth
• 41. Turkey: Fixed broadband revenue will account for 66% of all retail fixed revenue in 2021 revenue in 2021
• 42. About the authors and Analysys Mason
• 43. About the authors
• 44. About Analysys Mason
• 45. Research from Analysys Mason
• 46. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

• Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central Eastern Europe , 2011-2021
• Figure 2: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue growth by service type, Central and Eastern Europe
• Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, Central Eastern Europe, 2015-2021
• Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Central Eastern Europe
• Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA's share of fixed broadband connections, by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2021
• Figure 6: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Central and Eastern Europe, 2015
• Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Central Eastern Europe, 2011-2020
• Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Central Eastern Europe, 2015 -2021
• Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central Eastern Europe, 2015 -2021
• Figure 10a: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2011 -2021
• Figure 10b: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2011 -2021
• Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Central Eastern Europe, 2011 - 2021
• Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share total connections (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2015 2021
• Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
• Figure 14a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011 -2021
• Figure 14b: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011 -2021
• Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Central Eastern Europe, 2011
• Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Central Eastern Europe, 2011 -2021
• Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010 -2021
• Figure 18a: Residential fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Central and Eastern Europe 2011
• Figure 18b: Residential fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011 -2021
• Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory (2016 -2021), by country, Central and Eastern Europe
• Figure 20a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
• Figure 20b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
• Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total (retail and wholesale), Czech Republic,2011 -2021
• Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2015 -2021
• Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2015 -2021
• Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Czech Republic, 2011 -2021
• Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Czech Republic, 2011 -2021
• Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic RepublicRepublic
• Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Czech Republic, 2011 -2021
• Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, Czech Republic, 2011 -2021
• Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic RepublicRepublic
• Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total (retail and wholesale), Poland, 2011 -2021
• Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total and growth rates, Poland, 2015 -2021
• Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Poland, 2015 - 2021
• Figure 32: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Poland, 2011 - 2021
• Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Poland, 2011 - 2021
• Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Poland, 2011 -2021
• Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Poland
• Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Poland, 2011 - 2021
• Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Poland, 2011-2021
• Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Poland
• Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total (retail and wholesale), Russia, 2011 -2021
• Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total and growth rates, Russia, 2015 -2021
• Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Russia, 2015 -2021
• Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Russia, 2011 - 2021
• Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Russia, 2011 -2021
• Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Russia
• Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Russia, 2011 -2021
• Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Russia, 2011 -2021
• Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Russia
• Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total (retail and wholesale), Turkey, 2011 -2021
• Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total and growth rates, Turkey, 2015 -2021
• Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Turkey, 2015 -2021
• Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Turkey, 2011 - 2021
• Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Turkey, 2011 -2021
• Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Turkey
• Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Turkey, 2011 -2021
• Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, Turkey, 2011 -2021
• Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Turkey