Abstract
Is there a life for bulk GaN substrate out of the blue laser diode business? How material price decline will open new doors in lighting and power applications...
From blue lasers to lighting and power electronics
Today bulk or Free-Standing (FS) GaN substrate market is mostly driven by the
blue laser diode production only and its related application in high-density
data storage. This market is strongly boosted by the Bluray players and game
stations strong demand.
From 2011 and most likely 2012, Ultra-High Brightness (UHB) LEDs will start
handling part of the bulk-GaN production. That will only be possible along
with bulk-GaN price severe declining. We do forecast that the critical
threshold is below $1,500 for a 2" "LED-grade" substrate. Only such a price
level will act as leverage for LED market take-off.
2012-2013 will also see the introduction of new power devices based on
bulk-GaN. Again, here, that is strongly linked to the pricing of bulk-GaN that
will have to compete with 4" and future 6" SiC offer and GaN-on-Silicon
alternate technology.
Lack of bulk material pushes for ELO technique
Market is now essentially centered on free-standing material but the shortage
of this product has to be compensated by the use of home-made ELO-GaN on
sapphire substrates. We assume about 28% of LD was made on ELO-GaN in 2008.
This percentage will decrease a little but will stay significant by 2012.
Asia dominates the substrate business but EU and US exhibit credible challengers
The main free-standing producer remains Sumitomo, mostly supplying Nichia and
Sony for laser production. Others challengers such as Hitachi-cable (now
sampling 3" wafers) or Mitsubishi Chemical are becoming more and more present.
In Europe, LumiLOG, now part of Saint-Gobain group, is fine-tuning its product
line-up for the LED illumination business; Ammono and TopGaN are improving
their strong expertise in low dislocation density crystals.
US is mainly focusing on non or semi-polar material, with Kyma, Inlustra
Technologies or Oxford Instruments (TDI).
By 2015, bulk GaN for LED will dominate the substrate market in volume
2" substrates production volume could reach about 100,000 units by 2010,
leading to a relative $240M market for both free-standing and ELO. Beyond
2013, the growing demand for bulk GaN in LED lighting applications will
rapidly dominates the market in volume
This report presents the detailed major market metrics of the current and
projected bulk / free-standing GaN substrate business, describing the targeted
applications, the key players, the volumes and related market size of each
segment. It gives the possible total accessible market for GaN substrates,
highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of this technology over the current
established epiwafer or ELO technologies. It describes the recent progress in
crystalline quality as well as the new challenges offered by non-polar and
semi-polar GaN material
Table of Contents
Executive summary
Latest noteworthy news
- Sensitivity to dislocation density in the active layer for various nitride
devices. Roadmap to 2015
- Time-to-market for different GaN substrates in various applications
Blue laser diodes market
- Blue laser diodes market requirements and current status
- Targeted applications for GaN blue laser diodes
- Blue laser diodes market in game stations
- 2005-2015 annual volumes for GaN blue laser diodes for various
applications and related device revenues
- GaN-based laser diodes state-of-the-art
- Recent developments of non-polar based blue LD
- Non-polar R&D program at DARPA: VIGIL
- US DoE: SSL Core Technology and Product Development Funding Opportunities
(Round 5)
- Known supply-chain in the blue LD business
- 2008 Blue LD cost breakdown model
- From 2" bulk GaN wafer to packaged LD
- From 2" ELO GaN wafer to packaged LD
- Blue LD manufacturing yield
- 2005-2015 annual volume of 2" substrates (split by free-standing and
ELO-GaN) for blue LD and related revenues
- Data processing details for 2005-2015 substrates calculation
- 2008 substrate usage volume per company, split by type (FS / ELO)
- Estimated 2008 market share of Blue Laser Diode makers
- Conclusion
Ultra-High Brightness Nitride LED market
- Number of lumens for various applications. time-to-market for
mass-production
- Market segmentation
- LED market volume as a function of LED type
- LED market revenues as a function of LED type
- LED market volume as a function of LED type
- LED market revenues as a function of LED type
- 2001-2012 GaN-LED market. status and forecast for packaged LED devices
- Projection of the General Illumination business
- Worldwide Lighting Estimates
- Evolution of GaN-based white LEDs needs for general lighting
- Market estimation for White-LEDs for general illumination
- Wafer needs for general illumination (2" equivalent wafers, million units)
- GaN-based UHB LED market in volume to 2015
- Market volume and size of bulk-GaN substrates for UHB LEDs to 2015
- Current status of the LED performance and related technologies: How bulk
GaN can help enhancing performance...?
- Main manufacturing steps and related options for GaN-based LED
- Main manufacturing steps and related options for GaN-based LED
- Examples of current LED companies process flow-chart (in production or R&D)
- LED: lateral or vertical structures - Impact of substrate choice on
packaged LED final cost
- Global LED efficiency is the ratio of the final luminous output power over
the wall-plug input power
- Internal QE has now reached ~73% for low power LED (I=20mA)...
- ... but this value significantly drops as the current increases !
- How is the input power dissipated?v1.1 Watt HB-LED generates 3/4
- Average LED optical output power vs. heat generation at different current
levels
- Extraction efficiency (nextr.) is strongly linked to the die size....
- How to improve white LED efficiency?vDifferent options to optimize LED
performance
- Expected efficiency gains for the future generation of white power-LEDs
- Influence of selected improvements on the four key efficiency parameters
- The perfect white LED would include...
- Conclusion
Power Electronics: How bulk-GaN could take market shares over SiC?
- Possible applications for GaN devices in power electronics
- GaN vs. SiC SWOT analysis
- Top-20 power electronics company revenues
- Market projection for GaN devices in various applications 2005-2015
- Relative market shares of GaN applications to 2015
- Main applications accessible to SiC and GaN Specs / market data of current
silicon devices
- Focus on Power Factor Corrector Market A target for both SiC and GaN
- *PFC market main metrics
- *GaN main added-value in PFC circuits
- *PFC efficiency comparison as a function of junction T° and Schottky
diode type (Si, SiC and GaN)
- *TOP 15 OEM power supply manufacturers and related involvement in SiC &
GaN
- *GaN device main market requirements for PFC applications
- *Sales projection for HEV to 2015 in million units
- *2 key power modules: DC-DC boost converter and DC-AC inverter
- *The TOP 5 key requirements for power transistors in HEV (according to
Toyota)
- *Added value analysis of GaN electronics for HEV: fuel consumption and
money savings
- *HEV inverter module cost breakdown
- *Silicon vs. GaN HEV inverter cost breakdown
- Inverters for solar panels
- *Annual production of solar cells in GW, breakdown by technology
- *Volume and market of PV inverters split by type 2005-2019
- *Market size of (IGBT + diode) packs for PV split by 2005-2019
- *Device market for PV inverters. % of GaN market penetration and related
size
- Market volume and size of bulk-GaN substrates for power electronics to 2015
- Conclusion
Recent GaN power device developments
- Matsushita MEI / Panasonic GaN high-voltage "Natural Super Junction"diode
- Example of AlGaN/GaN HEMT by Toyota R&D Lab (J)
- Example of 5" GaN-on-Si FET by Sanken Electric (J)
- Hong Kong University of Science & Technology (HKUST) GaN-on-Si integrated
diode + transistor
- International Rectifier GaNpowIR"! technology platform
- Total Accessible Market for GaN-based power devices in volume. Will be
shared by SiC and GaN !
- *FS GaN and ELO GaN market status
- Recent known funding in GaN material development
- 2 options for blue laser substrates: Free-standing vs. ELO GaN
- Bulk / free-standing GaN specifications: 2008 production status
- Bulk / free-standing GaN specifications: R&D status
- Non-polar & semi-polar GaN main interests
- Non-polar & semi-polar GaN substrates R&D status
- Tentative roadmap of non or semi-polar GaN substrate size to 2020
- Bulk / free-standing GaN wafers Estimated monthly production capacity
- Overall FS GaN and ELO GaN market volume in various applications to 2015
- Overall FS GaN and ELO GaN market size in various applications to 2015
Conclusion on free-standing and ELO substrates business
General conclusion
Annexes
