Abstract
3-D TSV interconnects - 2008 Report
The Next Revolution for Semiconductor Packaging & Circuit Assembly Industries
Market Research Company Yole Developpement has unveiled its latest market forecasts evaluating the impact of 3D-TSV technologies on Semiconductor business both at the Device, Equipment and Material levels
The Semiconductor manufacturing industry is today facing more than ever the
challenge to explore the so-called "More-than-Moore" 3-D integration route in
order to pursue the continued aggressive scaling of the historical Moore' s
Law. The whole Semiconductor industry supply chain is being concerned: from
IDMs to Fabless and CMOS foundries, from OSATs to Substrate and Circuit
Assembly players as well. We believe 3D integration with TSVs could accelerate
even more current consolidation happening in CMOS wafer fabs and the shift
toward a fabless foundry model. As the whole industry supply chain is being
concerned, all players are at the moment positioning on the technology and
evaluating about which 3-D technology platforms need to be invested and
developed for their own business.
Times are bright for packagers from all across the world. A whole new
infrastructure needs to be developed in the "Mid-end" of the semiconductor
industry supply chain. New Technologies, Equipments and Advanced Materials
coming both from the Front-end and the Back-end worlds are being developed and
will give rise to a new revival of the semiconductor packaging and circuit
assembly industries. Our latest market forecasts show that 3D-TSV wafers will
be shipped in millions and have the potential to impact as much as 25% of the
memory business by 2015. If we exclude memories, our analysis show that 3D-TSV
wafers could account for more than 6% of the total semiconductor industry by
2015.
This new study aims at giving a better understanding about the right timeline
for the successful adoption of the Through Silicon Via (3-D TSV interconnect)
technology across the wide range of its driving end-applications. The two
reports further quantify the potential impact of 3-D technologies on the
semiconductor manufacturing market (at the Device / Equipment / Material
levels) and evaluate how the industry supply chain is likely to evolve in the
2009-2015 time frames. Examples of major finding from this new market research
study are:
Motivations for going to 3-D are pretty clear and have not changed much
since the technology has been successfully introduced into production for MEMS
and CMOS image sensors already: it is all about achieving smaller form factor
with increased package densities, to meet bandwidth, RF, power consumption
performance improvements and to keep with further cost reduction. Cost is
definitively set to be the strongest motivation to develop 3D technologies in
the long run. Additionally, we do see several players being driven by
reliability motivations: higher reliability systems can be manufactured
through the vertical integration of several layers using 3-D TSVs instead of
wire-bonds or Flip-chip interconnects, using 3D stacked wafer level optics
instead of plastic injection molded lens modules. From many point of views,
3-D appears to be a strong enabling driver for the successful introduction of
ever more integrated new systems into harsh and space constraint application
environments such as in the Automotive, Bio, Telecom and Consumer markets
among others.
Roadmap per application: WL-CSP CMOS image sensors are on the point to
leave their traditional edge interconnects configuration for going to "real"
3D-TSV architectures as soon as this year. Vias will be partially or
completely filled, depending on via filling approach being developed (Copper
for partial filling, Poly-Silicon or Tungsten for completely filled vias).
Additionally, we clearly see the number of I/Os expanding to several hundreds
of interconnects per chip with a trend to stack the DSP chips under the image
sensor chip itself. MEMS will also take benefit from 3-D in order to combine
the MEMS with its ASIC while Wireless SiPs will combine heterogeneous layers
all together (built on different lithography nodes, different material
substrates such as Si, GaAs, SiGe...). The market for 3-D stacked memories is
imminent: it is primarily driven by RAM based memories first meanwhile more
and more Flash memory is set to be combined in the future within MCP, PoP/SiP
packages, cell-phone card-slots and SSDs. The question is now more about who
will succeed to develop first the lowest cost process and will take the risk
of the huge initial infrastructure investment required. Going further, Logic
based 3D-SOCs are to set to take-off in the 2-3 years time frame for different
applications. Indeed, this "true" type of 3D-IC integration will be achieved
through the progressive segregation of several layers: 3D Partitioning of
embedded memories, RF, Analog and I/Os layers from the logic base chip will be
achieved in the most cost effective manner by reducing overall chip size
areas. We are today confident that 3D-ICs will soon show more cost effective
compared to traditional SOC approaches as it will enable to partition in a
cost effective manner the different functions today all integrated into large
area SOC dies. Beyond cost, these 3-D chips will additionally benefits from
performance improvements as interconnect length will be shortened and
repeaters will be removed. This will allow the CMOS industry to "virtually" go
beyond to the 32nm node in terms of chip size, cost and performance.
We believe that different 3-D technology platforms need to be developed as
they will serve different application needs and will correspond to different
players in the supply chain:
3-D WLP Encapsulation platform is today already in production in CMOS
image sensors with via through the backside of the wafer. It will expand to
Power amplifier modules as well. MEMS package are more complex as most of
these applications will need a full-hermetic cavity through the use of getters
and more specialized bonding technologies.
3-D TSV Stack platform is being primarily developed for stacked
memories and logic 3D-SOCs later on. If via-last will account for a large
portion of the market, we see a clear trend towards via-first configurations
and smaller vias size approaching 1-5um diameters with 500-2000 interconnects
per chip typically.
3-D interposer Module platform is already in very small production for
several MEMS applications in order to combine the ASIC & MEMS chips together
in a true WLP approach (The silicon interposer acts here in direct replacement
of the organic substrate). This technology platform is likely to expand
rapidly into many SiP application spaces. In most cases, the silicon 3D
interposer is used as a "companion chip" module for the 3D integrated system.
Benefits of such 3-D silicon interposers include outstanding intrinsic thermal
properties (CTE) of the silicon package/substrate/board and the potential to
scale to unlimited interconnect pitches. Furthermore, they leverage the
possibility to be more and more "engineered" among time with the capability to
integrate passive devices, to form cavities or even to build micro-cooling
channels for cost efficient thermal management modules. More generally, 3-D
silicon interposers must be low cost and may be handled or manufactured by
IDM' s subcontractors if the confidentiality value chain can be ensured. We do
see totally different players emerging in this business: from MEMS, CMOS
silicon foundries, substrate to circuit assembly players as well.
There are several barriers to entry for full scale 3D IC integration. It
includes Test, 3D EDA Design tools, Thermal management and 300mm equipments
availability .
Regarding Test, issues are closed to be solved as many solutions are currently
being developed and evaluated (double-side probe stations, BIST with JTAG,
interconnect redundancies...) However, as contact probe test technologies will
tend to be more and more limited with via pads density increasing, they may
not scale to future pad dimensions pitch shrinks. Moreover, as one portion of
the industry is going towards W2W configurations with thin wafers, new
requirements are emerging for testing without damage at the wafer level to
ensure the electrical functionality of the TSV, RDL and Bump pad structures
prior to the stacking of each layer. As a consequence of this, a lot of
companies are requesting for contact-less testing technologies (based on
optical or wireless methods). Technology and equipments are being developed
for wafer surface inspection, open/shorts electrical testing and 3-D System
level functionality validation. The landscape is completely different
regarding the availability of 3D EDA Design and Thermal Management software
tools. We are seeing a lot of effort being done in this area at the moment.
However, we believe it is a real challenge for the industry to get the tools
ready by 2011.
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- Market forecasts Summary
- 3-D Equipment market forecasts
- Breakdown for Wafer Bonders / Chip Bonders / Etching-Drilling /Plating /
Lithography / Spray coating / Temporary Bonding / Grinding-Thinning /
Inspection & Metrology / Test tools
- Advanced Materials market forecasts
- Breakdown for Photo-resists / Adhesives / Gas /Advanced Substrates /
Specific Chemistries
- 3D-TSV Manufacturing Challenges
- 3DIC Enabling technologies
- Via first or Via last?
- Different via shapes & geometries
- 3-D TSV emerging Supply chain
- Equipment & Advanced Materials Tool-Box for 3-D IC integration.
- Analysis of different technologies / Requirements / Tool Capabilities /
Scenarios / Forecasts / Suppliers involved in:
- Via Etching / drilling
- Via Dielectric isolation
- PECVD / SACVD / Spin-on & Sprayed dielectric polymers
- Via filling methods
- Barrier / Seed layer related technologies
- Polysilicon / Tungsten / Copper plating / Conductive paste
- Grinding / Thinning
- Equipments & Materials challenge & requirements
- Thin Wafer Handling
- Equipments & Materials challenge & requirements
- Lithography related technologies
- Micro bump pads & pillars technologies overview
- Materials challenges & requirements for 3-D
- Dry films development for 3D-WLP applications
- Stepper vs. Mask aligner lithography vs. ECPR
- Thermal management materials
- Bonding & Final assembly steps
- Thermo compression / Direct oxide / Adhesive
- C2W vs. W2W Bonding
- Cost analysis
- Advanced Substrates for 3 D Technologies
- Test / Inspection / Metrology solutions for 3 D
- Cost of Ownership for 3-D TSV manufacturing
- TSV manufacturing CoO& Capital Tools investment necessary for a:
- MEMS fab
- CMOS image sensor fab
- Memory fab
- Logic 3D-SOC & Wireless SiP fab
- CoOcomparison of TSV vs. wire bonding vs. PoP
- 3-D TSV cost evolution / learning curve improvement over time
- Main conclusions & Perspectives
Tables & Figures
- Market forecast Summary
- Conservative / Likely / Optimistic Scenariosfor 3D-TSV Market Ramp.
- 3D-TSV Wafer forecasts breakdown:
- per industry (wspy eq.)
- per wafer size diameter (wspy)
- per 3-D Technology Platform
- 3D-TSV Equipments & Materials Market forecasts (M$)
- Detailed breakdown for Wafer Bonders / Chip Bonders / Etching-Drilling
/ Plating / Lithography / Spray coating / Temporary Bonding /
Grinding-Thinning / Inspection & Metrology / Test tools
- 3-D TSV Materials Market forecasts (M$)
- Detailed breakdown for Photo-resists / Adhesives / Gas /Advanced
Substrates / Specific Chemistries
- Equipment market forecasts for 3-D TSV
- Via Etching scenarios developed
- DRIE chambers Sales Forecasts (Units / M$)
- Via isolation scenarios developed
- Spray Coating Equipment forecast (Units / M$)
- Via Filling scenarios developed
- Electroplating tools Market forecast (Units / M$)
- Thinning / Grinding Tool Market forecast (Units / M$)
- 3D TSV Wafer handling scenarios developed
- Temporary Bonding tools Market forecasts
- Lithography tools Market Forecast (Units / M$)
- Bonding scenarios developed
- Wafer Bonder VendorsMarket shares
- Bonding scheme(W2W / C2W) scenarios developed
- Wafer Bonder Chamber Sales forecast (Units/ M$)
- Chip Bonder Equipment Market Forecasts (Units/ M$)
- Test / Metrology / Inspection Tools forecasts (Units /M$)
- Advanced Materials market forecast for 3-D TSV
- Bosch DRIE Gas Market (in M$)
- Photo-Resist Materials Volume Forecasts (in Liters / M$)
- Specific Chemistries Market Forecasts (in M$)
- Detailed breakdown for CMP slurries & Seed/ Barrier / Electroplating /
Stripper / Remover chemistries
- CMP equipment & Materials: Global Market Share
- Temporary Wafer Bonding Materials Forecast (in Liters)
- Dicing Tapes Market Forecast (in m²)
- 3-D Advanced Substrate Market Forecasts (in wafers eq.)
- Silicon vs. Glass 3-D Capping Forecasts (in wspy / M$)
- Cost Modeling results for 3D TSV Manufacturing
- Cost Analysis synthesis for a NEW 3-D fab
- Cost Analysis synthesis for a EXISTING 3-D fab
