本報告已在2011年05月12日停止出版。
Yole Developpement 調查分析了一般用途與汽車照明用HB LED後，出版了一本綜合報告書。
調查企業： Cree、Sumitomo、TopGaN、Osram、Lumileds、Toyoda Gosei、Nichia、Kyma、Lumilog、 Samsung-Corning
預計 2007 年 GaN-based LED 能讓日光燈的發光效率更高，半導體照明業務將正式浮出檯面。
Lumileds、Osram、Nichia、Cree 等企業將促銷 40 lumen/watt 以上，ASP $5/part 以下的高亮度白色 LED。
一般照明用 LED 的需求將在 2010 年達到 3.6 億 Unit，2020 年將達到 4∼7 億 Unit。
而 HBLED 在汽車業將有十分廣大的市場機會。
主要理由為：
- 可靠性（例：Low Beam 時相對目前的 3000 小時壽命，未來將達到 10000 小時壽命）
- 用於車內燈與車外照明
- 消耗電力低
小型 LED 有以下可能性：
- 新設計潛力（車外照明）
- 車內燈應用性增加（小型化、可在小空間設置）
從安全面來看，LEX 的反應速度快（比燈泡點亮的速度快上 250millisecond 以上），於時速 100km 可多得到 7 公尺的煞車距離。
HBLED 在車頭燈市場亦擁有極大的潛力，隨著 HBLED 性能提升，晶片需求將漸漸降低（2009 年所有功能在 15 片以內）。HBLED 頭燈在汽車市場的目標價格為 $10/klm，預估在 2010 年可達到並開始普及，而此時高階車款應已使用 HBLED（約 2007 年）。
雖然目前 HBLED 的汽車頭燈市場才剛開始，但 2009 年左右可達到 9000 萬美元的規模，白色 LED 市場由 Lumileds、Osram、Nichia、Toyoda Gosei、Cree 五大主要企業佔據。
目前高階車款已可能使用 200 顆 LED 但這個數字未來仍可能繼續成長（預計 2009 年達到 800 顆）。
至 2007 年 HBLED 市場將呈直線性成長，在汽車業與液晶電視市場將可獲得約 35 億美元的利潤。
2007 年是一般照明業務開始的轉捩點。
lm/lamp 與 $/lm 相結合後，預計照明市場將在 2010 年達到 30 億美元的規模。
Content of the report
Introduction
HB-LED general data
- Global HB-LED market analysis
- Nitride-based LEDs market analysis
- White/blue GaN LED Performance and price roadmap
- 2” substrates volumes forecasts for GaN based LEDs 2001-2007
- Cree strategy and evolution
- Companies facts
- Chips scribing & dicing
- Estimation of different GaN-LED cost breakdown
General illumination market
- Worldwide estimation of generated lumens
- Forecast for LEDs in general illumination 2007-2020
- Total 2” equivalent wafers volume for GaN HB-LEDs
- Conclusions on HB-LED business for illumination
Car Lighting Market
Synthesis
- Front lighting LEDs-based
- Rear lighting LEDs-based
- Interior lighting LEDs-based
Technologies
LEDs and HBLEDs
- Price, performances and SWOT analysis
Applications
- External lighting
- Front lighting
- Adaptive Front lighting System (AFS)
- Rear Lighting
- Interior lighting
Market
Abstract
Yole Developpement has edited a new report describing the market and
technology trends for HB LEDs in general illumination and automotive lighting.
In 2007, GaN-based LEDs will reach a higher luminous efficiency than
fluorescents. The ramping-up of solid-state lighting business will really
start at that time. Companies like Lumileds, Osram, Nichia or Cree are now
marketing high brightness white LEDs with more than 40 lumen/watt efficiency)
and an ASP less than 5$/part. We forecast that the annual demand for LEDs for
general illumination should reach about 3.6 billions units in 2010 and between
4 to 7 billions units after 2020.
HB-LEDs have also really strong market opportunities in the automotive, many
reasons for that, among them:
- important reliability (e.g. lifetime much larger than needed 10 000 h
while 3 000 h is necessary for low beams)
- use for internal and external lighting,
- low consumption,
The small size of LEDs enables:
- new design possibilities (for external light, they could be very close to
the optics)
- increased integration (for internal light, their small size is ideal as
little space is available)
In term of security, LEDs have fast reaction time: LEDs light up around 250
milliseconds quicker than bulbs. Therefore, at 100 km/h speed, that means a
gain in braking distance of 7 meters.
