Abstract
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High value market remains an attractive diversification opportunity for
semiconductor manufacturing players
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Growth rate is still high, but the market shows early signs of maturity
Many “WLP” technologies are now cruising at a very high altitude.
This is serious business: over 23 billion units packaged with ‘fan-in’
as we may call it are expected to sell and be mounted in smartphones, tablet
PCs or other mobile devices in 2011. For size reduction, together with low
cost, remains the main driver for adoption of this technology. If
‘fan-in’ WLCSP already reached high penetration rates in mobile
applications for connectivity (Bluetooth+WLAN+FM combos, GPS) and analog
integrated circuits (DC/DC converters, LDO's, ESD/EMI protection devices), it
is still growing fast for some other IC types as well as in MEMS and sensors.
We are not at a time to claim that “Wafer Level Packaging” is
taking off any longer.
WLCSP total market value (M$)
Reaching over 2 million 300mm equivalent ‘fan-in’ WLCSP wafers in 2011 for a total market size of b$1.7
Of course, one may argue that these are tiny devices. Well, if this is true
for many of them, it appears that the average size of a ‘fan-in’ WLCSP
device tended to increase over the past 2 years, with many
“connectivity” devices reaching sizes of more than 30mm2. We
estimate that in 2011, more than 2.3 million 300mm equivalent ‘fan-in’
WLCSP wafers will be processed for the first time. All steps compounded (wafer
level, die level and test), we estimate that the 2011 market value of
‘fan-in’ WLCSP is close to B$ 1.7.
Prices keep on decreasing, but the market growth rate is expected to stay high at 12% over the 2010-2016 time period
Although costs and prices still decrease as the technology and its market
mature, the market value growth rate for the 2010-2016 timeframe is still
expected around 12%, 4 points higher than semiconductor packaging in general.
However, this is lower than the 22% 2008-2013 growth rate we had computed for
the same market 2 years ago. Costs kept on decreasing thanks to the end of the
capacity shortage on 12-inch diameter wafers and thanks to standardizing
technologies with simplified process flows. And despite technologies improved
to the point that the maximum possible die size could be extended, it's not
all clear skies for ‘fan-in’ WLCSP. With the continuous fallout of Nokia
on the handsets market, this is WLCSP's historical biggest supporter which
loses influence, and some tier two handset manufacturers still seem reluctant
to broadly adopt the technology.
Changing paradigms: future growth will be driven by different devices, based on different technologies
Texas Instruments' WLCSP wafer shipments Breakdown by application analysis
Looming over the horizon is the threat of the CMOS 28nm node technology with
such a high IO density that some package with a “fan-out area”
will be needed anyhow. Hopefully, A significant part of the ‘fan-in’
WLCSP market still relies on the analogue Ics on the one hand, using older
technologies, and on MEMS and sensors (particularly CMOS image sensors) on the
other hand. This latter device type is expected to be a high potential growth
application for fan-in WLCSP in the coming 5 years: we expect a tremendous
growth of up to 25% for MEMS and sensors with a WLCSP finishing over the next
5 years. All in all, ‘fan-in’ WLCSP shows the first early signs of a
maturing market. It still grows faster than the average semiconductor
packaging market mainly thanks to the fast growth rates of smartphones and
tablet PCs in which WLCSP considerably helps save space and reduce costs.
Fan-in WLCSP 2010-2016 unit CAGR (%) by device type
High margins are attracting new player types with diverse business models
The supply chain is still primarily led by OSATs and IDMs, But the original
“Wafer bumping houses” and “wafer packaging houses”
take a significant share of the market too. All the major OSATs invested in
300mm WLCSP capacity over the past 2 years. TSMC recently claimed their will
to step in this market too, possibly opening the way to other foundries.
Supply Chain for WLCSP Manufacturing
In this WLCSP 2011 report, you will find detailed technical and market status
and forecasts on WLCSP technologies and applications. Market forecasts and
growth rates are provided based on device units and wafers for each market
segment over the 2010-2016 timeframe. Market value forecasts in dollars are
given over the same period of time. Based on our “bottom-up”
analysis of the WLP fabs, the report displays the list and ranking of the
WLCSP front-end (RDL, UBM and balling) players as of end of 2010, including
the detailed respective wafer production capacities by player and wafer type.
Our unique “bottom-up meets top-down analysis” cross checks our
forecasting models application by application, and player by player,
delivering a high definition picture of the status of the ‘fan-in’ WLCSP
market, with, for example, the level of loading of the major WLCSP fabs by
application and by IC design company.
Numerous application examples are given, recent technical developments on
materials, architectures and test are detailed, and industry-wide technology
roadmaps are presented. In addition, the report provides for the analysis of
the supply chain and a detailed cost analysis section with models and examples.
BENEFITS
Key features of the report
- Detailed account of all the application fields of WLCSP (examples DC/DC
converters and LDO's, connectivity ‘WLAN+Bluetooth+FM’ combos, GPS,
audio codecs and amplifiers, MEMS, CMOS image sensors ...)
- Market trends and figures in Munits, M$, and wafer size equivalent with
breakdown by application.
- Wafer price ranges of WLCSP contract assembly by wafer size and breakdown
by main process step (wafer level, die level and test)
- Complete technologies and material tool-box analysis, covering
‘fan-in’ WLCSP as well as 3DWLCSP of MEMS devices and sensors.
- Market Shares
Who should buy this report?
- Integrated semiconductor Device Manufacturers and fabless semiconductor
companies
- Get the list of the top WLCSP service providers.
- Benchmark the competition activity and choose the right package for your
future applications
- Assembly and Test Service companies and wafer bumping houses
- Assess your technical and market position in the WLCSP service market.
- Get the list of the main WLCSP users
- Get acquainted with upcoming technologies and their potential
- Plan ahead needed investments for capacity
- Electronic module makers and Original Equipment Makers
- Evaluate the benefits of using these new technologies in your end system.
- Monitor new WLCSP application trends and package developments
- Equipment and Material manufacturers
- Identify new business opportunities and prospects
- Understand the differentiated value of your products and technologies in
this market
- IC and MEMS Foundries
- Spot new opportunities and define diversification strategies
Companies cited in the report
Accretech, advantest, agilent technologies, Alphaprobes, Amkor, AMS,
Anadigics, Analog Devices, AnalogicTech, Apple, Applied Materials, Asahi Kasei
(AKM), ASE, Audience, Avago Technologies, Bosch, Broadcom, Cascade Microtech,
Casio Micronics, China WLCSP, Cirrus Logic, CSR, Cypress, Delphi, Dialog
Semiconductors, Discera, DNP, Dow, Dupont, electroglas, Ellipsiz, EPWorks,
Fairchild, FCI, Form factor, Fraunhofer IZM, Freescale, Fujikura, Fujitsu,
Google, Hamamatsu, Hynix, ICI, Idex, IDT, IDT, IME, imec, Infineon,
International Rectifier, Intersil, Invensense, JCAP, JEM, JSR Micro, LAM
Research, LB Semicon, Lenovo, LETI, Linear Technology, LTX/Credence, Marvell,
Maxim, Maxlinear, Microchip, Micron, Micronics, Mitsubishi Chemical, Mosart,
Motorola, Murata, National Semiconductors, Nemotek, Nepes, Nexx, Nippon Steel,
Materials, Nokia, NXP, OKI, Okmetic, Omnivision, On semiconductor, Optopac,
PacTech, Panasonic, Panasonic, PowerTech (PTI), Qualcomm, Renesas, Rhom, RIM
(Blackberry), Samsung, Sanyo, Sensonor, Sharp, Shibasoku, Shin-Etsu, Shinko,
Silecs, Silex, Siltech, SiTime, SMSC, Sony, SPIL, SPTS, StatsChipPac,
STEricsson, STMicroelectronics, Sumitomo, Suss Microtec, TDK-Epcos,
technoprobe, TEL, Teledyne/Dalsa, teradyne, TeraMikros, TeraProbe, Texas
Instruments, Toray, Toshiba Semiconductors, Tronics, TSMC, UMC, Unisem,
verigy, Visera, VTI, Wentworth laboratories, Wolfson Microelectronics, Xintec,
Yamaha, Yokogawa
About the authors
Jean-Marc Yannou joined Yole Développement as technology and market
expert in the fields of advanced packaging and Intergrate Passive Devices. He
has 15-years of experience in the semiconductor industry.
Lionel Cadix joined Yole after the completion of several projects
linked to the characterization and modeling of high density TSV and 3DIC chip
stacking in collaboration with CEA-Leti and STMicroelectronics during his PhD.
He
ABOUT YOLE DÉVELOPPEMENT
Beginning in 1998 with Yole Développement, we have grown to become a group of
companies providing market research, technology analysis, strategy consulting,
media in addition to fi nance services. With a solid focus on emerging
applications using silicon and/or micro manufacturing Yole Développement group
has expanded to include more than 40 associates worldwide covering MEMS,
Microfluidics & Medical, Advanced Packaging, Compound Semiconductors, Power
Electronics, LED, and Photovoltaic.
Table of Contents
SCOPE OF THE REPORT & DEFINITIONS
- Definitions of wafer scale packaging, wafer level packaging & wafer level
chip scale packaging
- Scope of the report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
‘FAN-IN’ WLCSP MARKET FORECASTS
- Top-down analysis & 2010-2016 unit, wafer and market forecast
- Bottom-up analysis and 2010 production capacity and market shares
- Detailed view of WLCSP's IC design wins on the market
- IC Players capacity for each WLCSP application
‘FAN-IN’ WLCSP INFRASTRUCTURE & SUPPLY CHAIN
- Supply chain case of fan-in WLCSP
- Supply chain case of 3D WLCSP
- Business model examples
‘FAN-IN’ WLCSP TECHNOLOGIES
- RDL, UBM and balling
- Test of ‘fan-in’ WLCSP
COST OF ‘FAN-IN’ WLCSP
- ‘fan-in’ WLCSP cost structure
- 2008-2016 ‘fan-in’ WLCSP cost roadmap by main steps
- Cost comparisons of different package platforms for a 64 IO device
‘FAN-IN’ WLCSP APPLICATION FOCUS
- WLCSP ICs in handsets, tablet PCs and MP3
- WLCSP ICs for computing
- WLCSP for ICs in medical, automotive & space applications
- WLCSP of CMOS image sensors
- WLCSP of MEMS devices
CONCLUSION & PERSPECTIVES
APPENDIX
- Yole Développement company presentation
- Company services
- Advanced Packaging team analysts
LIST OF FIGURES:
- ‘Fan-in’ WLCSP Market Value Forecast ($M)
- 2010 ‘Fan-in’ WLCSP Market Value ($M)
- Split by cost-of-ownership segments
- Examples of fan-in WLCSP penetration in real products
- 2010-2016 ‘Fan-in’ WLCSP unit forecast
- 2010-2016 ‘Fan-in’ WLCSP wafer forecast
- 10 top 30 IC design companies demand for WLCSP services
- WLCSP design wins
- 2010 3D WLCSP & WLCSP wafer shipment
- WLCSP + 3D WLCSP regional capacities
- 2010 WLCSP & 3D WLCSP wafer capacities
- Matching 2010 bottom up and top down analysis
- fan-in' WLCSP manufacturing infrastructure
- 2010 fan-in WLCSP wafer capacity (3D WLCSP excluded)
- Players by business Model in the WLCSP space
- Supply Chain for WLCSP Manufacturing
- 3D WLCSP manufacturing infrastructure
- 2010 fan-in 3D WLCSP wafer capacity - by players
- Players by business Model in the 3D WLCSP space
- Supply Chain for 3D WLCSP Manufacturing
- 2010 WLCSP / 3D WLCSP wafer capacities - Breakdown by business model
- An example of “Packaging House” Business Model for WLCSP
- WLCSP manufacturing strategy - Supply Chain / Relationships
- Packaging subcon's main loading partners for WLCSP (TRIAL)
- Typical Fan-in WL CSP process flow
- Example of overall 3D WLP process flow
- WLCSP polymers main properties
- WLCSP polymers advantages and drawbacks
- Mapping of WLCSP UBM/passivation materials
- WLCSP challenges and solutions
- Main WLCSP roadmap Trends
- ‘Fan-in’ WLCSP contract price Forecasts
- ‘Fan-in’ WLP Cost Model
- ‘Fan-in’ WLP Device Categories
