Abstract
DESCRIPTION
A +$2 BILLION MARKET FOR MODULES: A BIG OPPORTUNITY FOR POWER ELECTRONICS
In 2016, almost 25 million cars manufactured will be electrified, the majority
of them being micro-HEV, with a low level of electrification. However, some 5
million will be full HEV, plug-in HEV or EV.
As a consequence, electric vehicles (EV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV)
will represent the biggest accessible market for power device and system
makers. Without getting completely mature, the EV/HEV industry has seen its
first steps toward standardization. Electrical configuration shows a
preference for parallel and split structures. Following the same logic, DC/DC
boost converters and DC/AC inverters architecture for full HEV and EV are
adopted. Getting the best switch at the lowest cost is a must. IGBT will
continue having a bright future in hybrid and electric cars.
EV/PHEV power module market
We expect the power module market to be near $5 Billion, most made with IGBT.
It is huge and will change the game in power electronics market!
But there are still some uncertainties:
- What about new power semiconductor device adoption?
- Which materials will be preferred?
- What are the consequences on the rest of the powertrain? Cooling?
Integration? Connectivity? Passives?
- What are the consequences on the supply chain?
ELECTRICAL ARCHITECTURES ARE CHOSEN BUT SUPPLY CHAIN KEEPS ON CHANGING
The powertrain supply chain is being absorbed by car makers on one side and
power device module makers on the other, leaving few free space to tier one
suppliers. The supply-chain is literally changing. With EV/HEV, the traction's
main part becomes the inverter and the motor. We will experience great
improvements with innovative switches, inverter designs and topology,
regenerative braking etc...
Car manufacturers need to keep that added value, and thus they already started
covering the value-chain starting from the semiconductor die. Toyota is even
deeper in the supply chain with silicon wafer production capability. GM is
closer to Delphi, and they still have manufacturing available at Kokomo (US).
And we can't forget the Chinese companies. BYD is now producing IGBTs, and
many Chinese semiconductor foundries are now able to do the same.
CHINA: MARKET OPPORTUNITY OR COMPETITIVE THREAT?
China will soon have enough experience to enter foreign markets. The companies
in an uncertain position are the European ones: Volkswagen, PSA or Daimler do
not have such advantages, and may play with their tier-ones (Valeo,
Continental, etc...).
This is also an opportunity for new players. Tesla and Coda are one of those
who can come and play with the big ones.
In addition, Chinese companies, supported by the Chinese government already
benefit from big car brands and electrified transportation platform to first
protect the local market from Occidental and Japanese ones and then expand
abroad.
TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS: ACTIVE, PASSIVES AND SYSTEM INTEGRATION
Technology wise, we see a common interest from car manufacturers in active and
passive devices since there is a global need for integration. Moreover,
decisions on the former will have consequences on the latter.
In addition, passive device manufacturers are beginning to understand the
overall consequences of semiconductor improvement on their business .
Power module packaging trend in EV/HEV
The challenges are related yet very different. Therefore, this report is
structured in two Volumes as follows:
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- A newly-organized full market overview section which is common to both volumes.
- Volume 1 details active devices: IGBTs, Super Junction MOSFETs, SiC and GaN-based devices, from the system down to the wafers
- Volume 2 details passive devices: resistors, capacitors, connectors, from the system down to the wafers
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COMPANY CITED IN THE REPORT
ABB, AEG, Amphenol, Audi, AVX, Batscap, Beigi Foton Motor, BMW, Bosch, BYD,
Changan Automobile, Chery Automobile, Chrysler, Citroen, Coda, Continental,
Cornell Dubilier, CREE, Danfoss, Delphi, Denso, Dongfeng Motors, Eaco, Eldre,
Electronic Concepts, Epcos, Faw, FCI, Ford, Fuji Electric, Geely
International, GM, Great Wall Motors, Honda, Huanghai Automobile, Hyundai,
Idealec, Infineon, International Rectifier, JCI Saft, Kemet, LG Chemical,
Magna, Magnetti, Maxwell, Mercedes, Methode, Mitsubishi Electric, NEC,
Nichicon, Nissan, Panasonic, Peugeot, Powdec, Renault, Rogers, Rubycon, SAIC,
Samwha, Sanyo Electric, Seika Electronic Co. Ltd, Semikron, Semisouth,
Shizuki, Taiyo Yuden, TE Connectivity, Tianjin Qingyuan Electric Vehicle,
Toshiba, Toyota, Transphorm, Tyco Electronics, Valeo, VolksWagen, Volvo,
Wanxiang Electric Vehicle, Wima, Yazaki, Zotye Automobile...
BENEFITS
WHO SHOULD BUY THIS REPORT?
- Car manufacturers and tier-one
- Understand the supply-chain evolution and the technologies coming
- Make the right partnerships with the right companies, and gain a
strategic advantage
- Understand your new market and plan your business expansion
- Power electronics players: material, equipment, device and module
market players
- Get the full picture and benchmark competitors and partners technical
solutions
- Understand the value-chain and its evolutions
- Take the right decisions and position yourself in tough market
BIO OF THE AUTHORS
Brice Le Gouic is in charge of power electronics and related applicative
markets activity at Yole Devéloppement. He was granted a Master of Science
degree in semiconductor physics & microelectronics from the National Institute
of Applied Sciences in Toulouse, France.
Alexandre AVRON is a full time analyst in power electronics at Yole
Devéloppement. He was granted a Master degree in Electrical engineering, with
a major in power electronics and microelectronics processes, from Applied
Sciences National Institute (INSA) of Lyon, France.
ABOUT YOLE DEVÉLOPPEMENT
Beginning in 1998 with Yole Devéloppement, we have grown to become a group of
companies providing market research, technology analysis, strategy consulting,
media in addition to fi nance services. With a solid focus on emerging
applications using silicon and/or micro manufacturing Yole Devéloppement group
has expanded to include more than 40 associates worldwide covering MEMS,
Microfluidics & Medical, Advanced Packaging, Compound Semiconductors, Power
Electronics, LE D, and Photovoltaic.
Table of Contents
BEFORE WE START...
- Glossary
- Methodology and tools
- Top-down approach Executive summary
- What has changed in the 2011 edition?
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EV HEV MARKET
- Worldwide car market
- HEV market
- EV and plug-in HEV
- Focus on Chinese market
- Main Chinese players
- Chinese market forecasts
ARCHITECTURES AND POWER SYSTEMS
- HEV architectures and power control units
- Assembly and design
- Supply chain
- Power electronics uses in HEV/EV
- Start/stop (belt Alternator system BAS)
- DC/DC converter
- DC/AC inverter
- Plug in charger
- Power electronics challenges and industrial supply chain
- Market players, latest developments, tier one automotive suppliers
VOLUME 1: ACTIVE COMPONENTS
- Semiconductors module packaging
- SiC & GaN trends in EV/HEV
- Silicon, SiC & GaN device and module recent developments
- SiC and GaN developments
GENERAL CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX
- Market players, latest developments: automotive tier one suppliers
VOLUME 2: PASSIVE COMPONENTS
- Resistors
- Capacitors
- Focus on EDLC
- Busbars
- Other interconnection solutions
GENERAL CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX
- Market players, latest developments: automotive tier one suppliers
