Abstract
Significant improvement in LED fundamental and manufacturing technologies
needed for massive adoption in general lighting
OVERVIEW
This report, co-branded by EPIC and Yole Developpement, provides a complete
vision of the established and emerging front-end and back-end technologies for
LED manufacturing. It also provides updated volume and $$ forecast for
packaged LED, split by application with capacity analysis and price trends.
MARKET
The packaged LED market is experiencing tremendous growth with an expected
CAGR of 28.2% between 2009 and 2015. Growth will be driven by large LCD
backlight applications through 2013-2014. However in order to successfully
transition to general lighting applications, significant technology and
manufacturing efficiency improvements are still needed in order to reduce the
cost per lumen of packaged LED.
Such improvements will be achieved through:
- Economies of scale
- LED efficiency improvement, including at high power (droop effect)
- Improved phosphors
- Improved packaging technologies
- Significant improvements in LED epitaxy cost of ownership (yield and
throughput)
FUNDAMENTAL CHALLENGES
Significant technological challenges remain to be solved in order to achieve
the cost and performance target set by the industry to enable adoption of LEDs
for a large number of applications. Solving the high current efficiency droop
remains a priority. While multiple mechanisms have been proposed, more work is
needed to understand the root cause(s) and allow the development of enhanced
LED architectures or improved epitaxial material quality that would lead to
LED devices performing at high efficiency when driven at high currents.
Further improvements in light extraction and internal quantum efficiency are
expected through improved LED die structure and material quality enabled by
the availability of better deposition tools, deeper understanding of III-V
semiconductors material as well as mirror and contact layers.
FRONT END MANUFACTURING
MOCVD manufacturers are targeting a x2 reduction in epitaxy cost of ownership
every 5 years. This will ripple through the entire LED value chain by
significantly improving binning yield and reducing testing and binning burden
on downstream manufacturing steps. Improved epitaxial material quality could
also enhance LED performance and contribute to further reduction in cost of
ownership. Despite a high technological entrance barrier, the possible
entrance of new players like Jusung Engineering or Applied Material could on
the long term bring further competition and stimulate technology development
and cost reduction.
LED PACKAGING
Thermal management remains the main challenge, impacting device lifetime,
stability and limiting driving currents. As LED efficiency improves, the
amount of electrical energy converted into light will increase and heat will
proportionally decrease. However, the thermal load will remain high on high
power LEDs as increasing the driving current per package remains the best
avenue to reduce the overall cost per lumen. No standard have emerged for
packaging. Power packages can be created by integrating large single dies or
multiple smaller dies and a variety of submount materials are used by the more
than 100 LED packagers, including ceramic, metal, silicon or engineered
material. The emergence of silicon based Wafer Level Packaging technologies
will enable further cost reduction and performance improvements for high power
LEDs and bring some level of standardization starting in 2013 and beyond.
However, no standardization of footprint and performance is in sight, posing a
significant challenge for OEM and integrators.
The development of new phosphors is also critical in achieving high efficiency
and bringing color consistency, stability and rendering at the levels
requested for general lighting applications. New nitride or silicate
composition are being developed to enhance the spectral output of white LEDs.
Cadmium Free Quantum Dots are a promising technology for high efficiency
phosphors with easily tunable emission and absorption characteristics. Work
however remains to be done to bring their cost down and develop process
compatible with mass manufacturing.
MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGIES
As volume increase and the LED industry adopts traditional semiconductor
manufacturing best practices, automation levels will increase and spread
across all manufacturing stages. The industry is reaching a critical mass that
will enable the development of dedicated tools (dicing, bonding, lithography,
testing and sorting.....) taking into account the specificities of LED
manufacturing: large pattern dimensions, smaller diameter wafers, wafer
bowing, transparency etc.....The lack of standardization in manufacturing
technologies might however hinders those efforts. The development of common
roadmaps and standards developed by industry organization would strongly
benefit the industry but remain a challenging proposition due to the strong
competition between manufacturers, multiple intellectual property conflicts
and the technological specificities of each manufacturer. The adoption of
larger diameter wafer would help bring the LED industry closer to traditional
semiconductor technologies standards. Volume manufacturing on 6" wafers will
start at the end of 2010 and massive transition from 2" to 4" is expected in
2011. However the adoption of 8" wafers remains uncertain and will require
that Sapphire wafer manufacture achieve significant cost reductions. Silicon
remains the most serious contender as an alternative to sapphire substrates.
Significant progress have been made into the development of processes allowing
to design around the intrinsic limitations of Silicon for LED manufacturing.
Many start up and established LED manufacturers are working on improving those
technologies. While the cost to performance ratio still remains too high for
the industry to massively adopt a silicon platform, any breakthrough in the
field could change the face of the industry.
INDEX OF COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THE REPORT
3M, A-Bright, Accretech, Advanced Photonics, Aixtron, ALSI, AMAT, American
Bright, American Opto Plus, AOT, ApexScience & Engineering, APT Eelctronics,
Aqualite Co, Arima, ASM Pacific, AUO, Avago, Bergquist, Bridgelux, Bright LED,
Brightview electronic, CDT, Century Epitech Co., Ceramtec, Ceratech Corp.,
Chinalco, Chi Mei Lighting Technology Corp, Citizen Electronics, CREE, CS
Bright, Daina, Disco, Dominant Semiconductors, Dowa Mining, Dow Corning,
Dupont, Edison, Elec-tech, ElectroIQ, Electrovac curamik, Enfis, Epiled,
Epilight Technology Co., Ltd, Epistar, EpiValley, Everlight, Essemtec, Evident
Technologies, EVG, Excellence Opto, Fangda Group, Formosa epitaxy (Forepi),
FoXGroup, Galaxia Photonic, GE, Genesis Photonics, Golden Valley
Optoelectronics Co. Ltd, Guangdong Akinobu Semiconductor, Hamamatsu Photonics,
Hangzhou Silan Azure Co., Ltd, Harvatech, HC SemiTek, Heesung, Heptagon, High
Power Opto Inc., Hi-Light, Hueyjann, Huga, Huiyuan Optoelectronic, Hunan
HuaLei Optoelectronic, Hunin Electronic, Hybond Inc., Hymite, Idemitsu Kosan,
Illumitex, Intematix, Invenlux, Itswell, Jenoptik, JPSA, JiangSu Taidiam
Optoelectronics Technology, Junsung Engineering, KingBright, Kodenshi Corp,
Konica Minolta, Korea Photonics Technology Institute (KOPTI), Kwality Group,
Kyocera, Lattice Power Corporation, LedEngin, LEDTech, Lemnis,
Lextar/Lighthouse, LG Display, LG Innotek, Lighting Science, Ligitek, Lite-On,
LongDeXin (LDX), Lumei Optoelectronics, Lumenmax, Lumex, Lumileds, LumiMicro,
Lumination, Luminus, Lumitek Corp., Lustrous Technology, Luxpia, LuxtalTek
Corp., MokSan Electronics, Moser Baer, Nanosys, Nanya, Nationstar, Neo-Neon,
Nichia, NiNEX, Oasis, Optek Technology, Opto Tech, Osram, Oxford Instruments,
Palomar technology, ParaLight, Perkin Elmer, Philips, Podium Photonics, Power
Opto, Powerlightec, Qingdao Jason Electronic, Rainbow Optoelectronics, Rohm,
Samsung SEMCO, Sanan Optoelectronics, Sanken Electric, Seiwa Electric,
SemiLED, Semileds, Seoul semi / Optodevice, Shandong Huaguang Optoelectronics,
Sharp, Shenzen Mason Technology, Shenzen Mimgxue, Shenzen Yiliu Electronic,
Shenzhen Refond, Shin Etsu Chemical, Shinko, Showa Denko, Sibdi, SMI, Stanley
Electric, Sunpu Opto, Supernova, Suss Microtec, Sylvania, Synova, Tekcore,
TESS, Tonghui Electronic Corporation, TEL, tMt, Tong Hsing, Toshiba, Towa,
Toyoda Gosei, TSMC, Tyntek, UDC, ULVAC Technologies, Unity Opto, VEECO, VisEra
Tech, Vishay, VPEC, Walsin Lihwa, Wellipower, Wenrun Optoelectronic, Wooree
LED, Xiamen Changelight, Xintec, Xiamen Hualian, Ya Hsin, Yangzhou Huaxia
Integrated Photoelectric Co., Ltd (DarewinChip), Yangzhou Zhongke
Semiconductor, YoungTeck, Yuti Lighting Shanghai, Zoomview (Xi An Zoomlight)
BIO
EPIC: Tom Pearsall & EPIC fellow In 2003, Tom started EPIC, the
European Photonics Industry Consortium. Before EPIC, he works among others for
Bell Laboratories, Thomson/CSF and Corning. He is a Fellow of the American
Physical Society and a Fellow of the IEEE.
Dr. Eric VIREY holds a Ph-D in Optoelectronics from the National
Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble. He held various R&D, engineering,
manufacturing and marketing position with Saint-Gobain. He was Market Manager
at Saint-Gobain Crystals, in charge of Sapphire substrates and materials for
optical telecoms.
Dr Philippe ROUSSEL holds a Ph-D in Integrated Electronics Systems from
the National Institute of Applied Sciences (INSA) in LYON. He joined Yole
Developpement in 1998 and is leading the Compound Semiconductors
techno-economical market analysis department.
ABOUT YOLE DÉVELOPPEMENT
Beginning in 1998 with Yole Développement, we have grown to become a
group of companies providing market research, technology analysis, strategy
consulting, media in addition to finance services. With a solid focus on
emerging applications using silicon and/or micro manufacturing Yole
Developpement group has expanded to include more than 40 associates worldwide
covering MEMS and microfluidics, Advanced Packaging, Compound Semiconductors,
Power Electronics, LED, and Photovoltaic. The group supports companies,
investors and R&D organizations worldwide to help them understand markets and
follow technology trends to develop their business.
Table of Contents
- Table of contents
- Glossary
- Executive Summary
- Scope of the Report
- Methodology
- Definitions Used in this Report
1. CHIP Forecast
- HB - LED Package Segmentation
- Qualified vs. Non-qualified LED
- Revenue Per Package Type
- Volume Per Package Type
- Revenue Per Application
- Die Surface Per Application
- Die Surface per Material Type
- General Lighting Breakdown
- General Lighting Accelerated Scenario
2. LED Manufacturers' Capacity Analysis
- 2009 HB LED Companies Revenue Ranking
- LED manufacturers Position on the value chain. EU and US
- LED manufacturers Position on the value chain. Japan
- LED manufacturers Position on the value chain. Korea
- LED manufacturers Position on the value chain. Taiwan
- LED manufacturers Position on the value chain. China
- LED manufacturers Position on the value chain. Other Asia
- GaN Epitaxy Capacity Trends:
- GaN Capacity Trends: Geographic
3. LED Front End Manufacturing Technologies
- The Path to Cost Reduction
- Front end Manufacturing Overview
- GaN LED Chip Design Overview
- Improving LED Brightness and Efficiency:
- LED Current Droop
- LED Thermal Droop
- The Green Gap
- Epitaxy
- Alternative Epitaxy Methods: RPCV
- Alternative Epitaxy Methods: HVPE and MBE
- Alternative Epitaxy Methods: Hybrid Tools
- Epitaxy: Market Trends
- Epitaxy: Nanocolumns
- Lithography
- Surface Texturing
- Mirrors
- Mirrors: Resonant-Cavity LEDs
- Electrodes: Overview
- Electrodes: ITO Alternatives
- Electrodes: Trends
- Testing And Binning: Overview
- Testing And Binning: Yields
- LED Die Separation
- LED Die Separation: Definitions
- Recent Trend in Dicing: Stealth Dicing
- Recent Trend in dicing: Thermal Laser Separation
- Substrate Removal:
- Substrate Removal: Laser Lift Off (LLO)
- Substrate Removal: Mechanical
- Case of InGaAlP LEDs:
- Wafer Bonding: Permanent Bonding
- Wafer Bonding: Temporary Bonding
- Temporary Bonding: Comparison
4. LED Back End Manufacturing Technologies (Packaging)
- Overview
- Low & Mid-Power LED packaging Overview
- Low & Mid-Power Packaging
- Low & Mid-Power Packaging: Examples
- Low & Mid-Power Packaging: Compression Process for Plastic Packages
- High-Power LED packaging: Overview
- High-Power LEDs: Examples
- Interconnects: Wire Bonding
- Interconnects: Ribbon Bonding
- Interconnect: Flip Chip
- Interconnects: Eutectic Bonding
- Interconnects: Overview Of Die Attach Techniques:
- Interconnects: Vias
- Interconnects: Emerging Technologies (Courtesy: SIIT/IMP, Fraunhofer IZM)
- ESD Protection:
- ESD Protection: Zener Diode on Substrate
- ESD Protection: ESD on Ceramic
- ESD Protection: Using Si Submount
- Thermal Management: Rationale
- Thermal Management: Low/Mid-Power LEDs
- Thermal Management: High-Power LEDs
- Thermal Management: Overview
- Thermal Management: Material Properties
- Thermal Management: Overview of Substrates and Circuit Board Material Options
- Thermal Management: main design options
- Heat Slugs
- Ceramic Substrates
- Direct Bonded Copper Substrates
- Other Materials
- Circuit Boards:
- Circuit Boards: MCPCB Example
- Silicon Substrates and WLP
- Silicon Substrates and WLP: Overview
- Silicon Substrates and WLP: TSV
- Silicon Substrates and WLP: Hymite
- Silicon Substrates and WLP: Touch Microsystem Technology
- Silicon Substrates and WLP: Visera Technology
- Silicon Substrates and WLP: SibDi
- Silicon Substrates and WLP: LG Innotek
- Wafer Level Packaging: Next step
- Silicon Substrates and WLP: Conclusions
- Other Design Options
- Encapsulation and Primary Optics: Overview
- Encapsulation and Primary Optics: Low-Power LEDs
- LED Lens Materials
- Encapsulation and primary optics: Silicone
- Encapsulation and primary optics: Process
- Encapsulation and primary optics: Gradient Index Lenses
- Encapsulation and primary optics: Printing
- Encapsulation and primary optics: Molding
- Encapsulation and primary optics: Micro-Replication
- Phosphors: How to make white light?
- Phosphors: Key Requirements
- Phosphors: Most Common Compositions
- Phosphors: Less Common or Emerging Compositions
- Phosphors: Quantum Dots
- Phosphors: Deposition methods
- Phosphors: Remote Phosphors.
- Phosphors: Conclusion
- AC LED: Technology
5. LED Substrates
- Introduction
- Total Substrate Volume for HB LEDs
- Sapphire: Recent Price Trends
- Sapphire: Weighted ASP
- 2008-2015Sapphire Substrate Revenue for LEDs
- Growth methods for sapphire Substrates
- Other Growth Methods
- Map of sapphire suppliers' locations
- Substrate Reclaiming.
- Alternatives to Sapphire (1/3): GaN-on-Silicon
- Alternatives to Sapphire (2/3): Bulk GaN - ZnO
- Alternatives to Sapphire (3/3): Engineered Substrates
- Different substrates for GaN epitaxy: “Direct growth or buffer
approach”
- Different substrates for GaN epitaxy: “Composite substrates: wafer
bonding approach”
- Conclusion on alternate substrates for GaN epitaxy
- 6" wafers for LED: Benefits
- 6" wafers for LED: what, when and at what price?
- Wafer extraction from ingots
- Sapphire for LED: Diameter Trends
- Growth methods of GaAs substrates
6. Raw Materials Availability GALLIUM & INDIUM
- Gallium - General Information
- Gallium Production
- Gallium - Pricing and Trends
- Gallium compound - GaCl3
- Indium - General Information
- Indium - Pricing and Trends
- Geopolitical context
7. Conclusions
