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市場調查報告書

境內風力發電的運轉、整備 (O&M) 市場策略性結構

WEU Onshore O&M Strategy Configuration Report 2015

出版商 Wind Energy Update 商品編碼 327823
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 130 Pages; 43 Figures; 99 Tables
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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境內風力發電的運轉、整備 (O&M) 市場策略性結構 WEU Onshore O&M Strategy Configuration Report 2015
出版日期: 2015年04月27日 內容資訊: 英文 130 Pages; 43 Figures; 99 Tables
簡介

本報告提供全球的境內 (陸上) 風力發電的運轉、整備 (以下O&M) 服務市場相關分析、整體市場規模、結構,及各地區、服務內容、運用形態詳細內容結構、預測、今後的市場可能產生的事態、成本效率性運用的策略等相關調查與考察。

摘要整理

分析方法

第1章 O&M市場概要、規模、現狀

  • 風力發電市場預測
    • 全球的設備容量
      • 主要國家市場現狀
    • 全球市場的未來展望
  • 全球主要企業
    • 業者
    • 所有者
    • 發電機制造商
  • 渦輪機的尺寸
  • O&M市場
    • 風力發電所的O&M市場規模
    • 保證狀態
    • O&M市場趨勢

第2章 O&M市場計分卡

  • O&M服務的選擇
    • 廠商、EOW的全方位服務契約
    • 獨立型服務供應商
    • 自家公司O&M
    • 圓錐 (混合)
  • 市場計分卡技術
    • 市場適應性
      • 市場優勢
      • 市場潛力
      • 經營風險
      • 商務發展的容易化
      • O&M服務環境
    • 服務市場策略的永續性
  • O&M市場計分卡
    • 北美
      • 美國
      • 加拿大
      • 墨西哥
    • 南美
    • 北歐
      • 英國
      • 丹麥
      • 瑞典
    • 西歐
      • 德國
      • 法國
    • 東歐
      • 波蘭
      • 土耳其
      • 羅馬尼亞
    • 南歐
      • 西班牙
      • 義大利
    • 亞太地區
      • 中國
      • 印度
      • 澳洲
    • 非洲、中東
      • 南非
  • O&M服務市場摘要

第3章 資產整備策略的計分卡

  • 整備策略
    • 事後支援型 (調整型) 整備
    • 預防型 (時基) 整備
    • 預期整備
      • 性能監控 (非侵入性狀態開始)
      • 條件為基礎的整備
      • 可靠性為基礎的整備 (風險為基礎)
    • 改善型整備
  • 整備計分卡技術
    • 失敗方案
    • 模式的參數
      • 臨時成本要素
      • 供應鏈要素
      • 狀態監測系統 (CMS) 要素
      • 追加要素
  • 整備策略的計分卡
    • 參照的失敗方案
    • 齒輪箱的進階失敗方案
    • 葉片的進階失敗方案
    • 發電機的進階失敗方案
  • 限制和今後的工作

第4章 結論

附錄A

附錄B

附錄C

  • 遠隔地、沒有備用品的情況
  • 近鄰、有備用品的情況

簡稱集

參考資料

圖表一覽

目錄

Harnessing operational performance data and consolidating service contract experiences to configure the best O&M response strategies for your assets

The 'Industrial Internet' and 'Big Data' are just a couple of the buzz words currently circulating the onshore wind O&M space. At the project or company level these terms refer to the act of extracting, interpreting and then reapplying asset data to intelligently and efficiently inform O&M strategies. At the industry level these terms speak of a collective move towards greater data transparency and inter-market and inter-company knowledge transfers to facilitate the establishment of O&M gold standards whilst propagating technical innovation and service cost-competiveness.

The WEU Onshore O&M Strategy Configuration Report 2015 is an ambitious and innovative data-centric exercise which moves through the market, project and component levels translating performance data, technical expertise and stakeholder insight into strategic directives. From market O&M readiness, to project service option suitability and optimum component maintenance response strategy, this comprehensive study provides clear and informed takeaways for you to utilize in the pursuit to optimize output and lower costs across the project lifecycle.

In this report you will find:

  • Market O&M readiness assessment: Quantify O&M readiness in 18 global markets to gain the insight you need for negotiating risk and optimizing revenue, derived from a weighted consideration of 5 key factors and 24 sub-factors.
  • Market service strategy suitability: Determine the ranking of O&M service provider suitability in 18 markets through our service scorecard which considers factors ranging from ease of doing business to wind technician training program score in each locality.
  • Major component maintenance response configuration: Based upon 576 configurations across 19 project scenarios identify the optimum maintenance response strategy for gearbox, generator and blade failure.
  • Complete access to scorecard data tables: Make the most of the extensive data generated within the report through our user-friendly reference tables and appendices, enabling you to continuously extract value beyond the scenarios detailed within the report body.

Benefits of the report:

The WEU Onshore O&M Strategy Configuration Report 2015 transforms Big Data into actionable intelligence, enabling you to:

  • Carve out the most cost-effective maintenance strategy for your capital intensive components - gearbox, generator and blades - to reduce failure rates, minimize downtime and increase asset performance output.
  • Construct an informed market entrance plan by utilizing our O&M readiness scorecard to identify market strengths and weaknesses and our service provider scorecard to gauge contract suitability in multiple locations
  • Understand how you can translate market and asset data into strategic directives by using are step-by-step guides to configuring market readiness, service provider suitability and component maintenance response strategy as a blueprint for your in-house analysis.

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

METHODOLOGY

1. O&M MARKET OVERVIEW, SIZING AND STATUS

  • 1.1. Wind Energy Market Outlook
    • 1.1.1. Global Installed Capacity
      • 1.1.1.1. Leading markets in 2014
    • 1.1.2. Worldwide Future Prospects
  • 1.2. Major Market Players
    • 1.2.1. Operators
    • 1.2.2. Owners
    • 1.2.3. Turbine Manufacturers
  • 1.3. Turbine Size
  • 1.4. O&M Market
    • 1.4.1. Wind Farm O&M Market Size
    • 1.4.2. Warranty Status
    • 1.4.3. O&M Market Trends

2. O&M MARKET SCORECARDS

  • 2.1. O&M Services Options
    • 2.1.1. OEMs and EOW Full-Service Contracts
    • 2.1.2. Independent Service Providers
    • 2.1.3. In-house O&M
    • 2.1.4. Tapered (Hybrid)
  • 2.2. Market Scorecard Methodologies
    • 2.2.1. Market Readiness
      • 2.2.1.1. Market Strength
      • 2.2.1.2. Market Potential
      • 2.2.1.3. Operational Risk
      • 2.2.1.4. Ease of Doing Business
      • 2.2.1.5. O&M Service Landscape
    • 2.2.2. Service Market Strategy Suitability
  • 2.3. O&M Market Scorecards
    • 2.3.1. North America
      • 2.3.1.1. US
      • 2.3.1.2. Canada
      • 2.3.1.3. Mexico
    • 2.3.2. South America
    • 2.3.3. Northern Europe
      • 2.3.3.1. UK
      • 2.3.3.2. Denmark
      • 2.3.3.3. Sweden
    • 2.3.4. Western Europe
      • 2.3.4.1. Germany
      • 2.3.4.2. France
    • 2.3.5. Eastern Europe
      • 2.3.5.1. Poland
      • 2.3.5.2. Turkey
      • 2.3.5.3. Romania
    • 2.3.6. Southern Europe
      • 2.3.6.1. Spain
      • 2.3.6.2. Italy
    • 2.3.7. Asia-Pacific
      • 2.3.7.1. China
      • 2.3.7.2. India
      • 2.3.7.3. Australia
    • 2.3.8. Africa and Middle East
      • 2.3.8.1. South Africa
  • 2.4. O&M Service Market Summary

3. ASSET MAINTENANCE STRATEGY SCORECARD

  • 3.1. Maintenance Strategies
    • 3.1.1. Reactive Maintenance (Corrective)
    • 3.1.2. Preventive (Time-Based) Maintenance
    • 3.1.3. Predictive Maintenance
      • 3.1.3.1. Performance monitoring (non-intrusive condition monitoring)
      • 3.1.3.2. Condition-based maintenance
      • 3.1.3.3. Reliability-based maintenance (risk-based)
    • 3.1.4. Improvement Maintenance
  • 3.2. Maintenance Scorecard Methodology
    • 3.2.1. Failure Scenarios
    • 3.2.2. Model Parameters
      • 3.2.2.1. Unscheduled Cost Factors
      • 3.2.2.2. Supply Chain Factors
      • 3.2.2.3. CMS Factors
      • 3.2.2.4. Additional Factors
  • 3.3. Maintenance Strategy Scorecard
    • 3.3.1. Reference Failure Scenario
    • 3.3.2. High Gearbox Failure Scenario
    • 3.3.3. High Blade Failure Scenario
    • 3.3.4. High Generator Failure Scenario
  • 3.4. Limitations and Future Work

4. CONCLUDING REMARKS

APPENDIX A

APPENDIX B

APPENDIX C

  • C.1. Remote Location, No Spare in Stock
  • C.2. Proximate Location, Spares in Stock

ABBREVIATIONS

BIBLIOGRAPHY

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Worldwide wind energy capacity
  • Figure 2: Global annual cumulative wind installed capacity
  • Figure 3: Top 10 cumulative capacity markets, 2013 (left) vs 2014 (right)
  • Figure 4: Worldwide cumulative installed capacity breakdown
  • Figure 5: Top 10 new installed capacity in 2014
  • Figure 6: New Policies Scenario and forecast cumulative installed capacity by region
  • Figure 7: Top 15 operator around the world by installed capacity
  • Figure 8: Top 15 owner around the world by installed capacity
  • Figure 9: Largest volumes of publically-announced onshore turbine contracts (January-July 2014)
  • Figure 10: Top 10 turbine manufacturers
  • Figure 11: Evolution of wind turbine capacity and size in Germany
  • Figure 12: Evolution of installed capacity in US and average rated power, 2004-2014
  • Figure 13: Global growth of out-of-warranty O&M market
  • Figure 14: China's estimated cumulative off-warranty onshore wind capacity
  • Figure 15: How often do you re-evaluate your turbine O&M strategy throughout the lifecycle of your asset32
  • Figure 16: What do you anticipate will be the contract cost variation in your key market in the next two years
  • Figure 17: Which area is the O&M industry focusing on for 2015?
  • Figure 18: Which O&M service strategy do you believe is the best fit in the post-warranty period?
  • Figure 19: ABEEólica's cumulative wind capacity projections for Brazil
  • Figure 20: Wind energy job landscape in France across the value chain
  • Figure 21: O&M wind energy players in France and the territorial distribution of O&M wind jobs
  • Figure 22: OEM market share for wind farms in operation
  • Figure 23: OEM market share for wind farms under construction
  • Figure 24: Wind energy operator market share in Italy
  • Figure 25: Currently used maintenance strategies
  • Figure 26: Which O&M response approach do you tend to adopt in relation to a fleet of ageing wind turbines?
  • Figure 27: How would you best describe your approach towards O&M activities over the whole lifecycle of your assets?
  • Figure 28: Condition monitoring symptom and fault analysis and response process
  • Figure 29: In general do you tend to deploy condition monitoring systems (CMS) on your assets?
  • Figure 30: What kind of CMS do you typically deploy?
  • Figure 31: Strategic equation for reliability-based maintenance
  • Figure 32: Maintenance scenario considerations
  • Figure 33: Maintenance strategy scorecard workflow
  • Figure 34: P-F curve
  • Figure 35: Probability versus component condition indicator
  • Figure 36: Reference scenario strategy comparison, 3MW turbine
  • Figure 37: Reference scenario strategy comparison, 2MW turbine
  • Figure 38: High gearbox failure scenario strategy comparison, 3MW turbine
  • Figure 39: High gearbox failure scenario strategy comparison, 2MW turbine
  • Figure 40: High blade failure scenario strategy comparison, 3MW turbine
  • Figure 41: High blade failure scenario strategy comparison, 2MW turbine
  • Figure 42: High generator failure scenario strategy comparison, 3MW turbine
  • Figure 43: High generator failure scenario strategy comparison, 2MW turbine

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Worldwide cumulative installed capacity breakdown
  • Table 2: Top 10 turbine manufacturers worldwide
  • Table 3: Scorecard Market-Specific Regions and Countries
  • Table 4: Advantages and disadvantages of OEM service contracts
  • Table 5: Advantages and disadvantages of ISP service contracts
  • Table 6: Advantages and disadvantages of in-house maintenance
  • Table 7: Advantages and disadvantages of hybrid strategies
  • Table 8: Industry Metric Classes Considered
  • Table 9: O&M Market Readiness Scorecard Factors and Classes
  • Table 10: Capacity Factor Ranking and Weighing
  • Table 11: O&M Market Readiness Scorecard Weights (From WEU Onshore O&M Survey 2015)
  • Table 12: O&M Service Market Strategy Suitability Scorecard Factors and Classes
  • Table 13: O&M Service Market Strategy Suitability Scorecard Stakeholder Relevance Matrix
  • Table 14: US' O&M Market Readiness Scorecard
  • Table 15: US' O&M Service Market Strategy Suitability Scorecard
  • Table 16: Canada's O&M Market Readiness Scorecard
  • Table 17: Canada's O&M Service Market Strategy Suitability Scorecard
  • Table 18: Mexico's O&M Market Readiness Scorecard
  • Table 19:Mexico's O&M Service Market Strategy Suitability Scorecard
  • Table 20: Brazilian's O&M Market Readiness Scorecard
  • Table 21: Brazilian's O&M Service Market Strategy Suitability Scorecard
  • Table 22: UK's O&M Market Readiness Scorecard
  • Table 23: UK's O&M Service Market Strategy Suitability Scorecard
  • Table 24: Denmark's O&M Market Readiness Scorecard
  • Table 25: Denmark's O&M Service Market Strategy Suitability Scorecard
  • Table 26: Sweden's O&M Market Readiness Scorecard
  • Table 27: Sweden's O&M Service Market Strategy Suitability Scorecard
  • Table 28: Germany's O&M Market Scorecard
  • Table 29: Germany's O&M Service Market Strategy Suitability Scorecard
  • Table 30: France's O&M Market Readiness Scorecard
  • Table 31: France's O&M service market strategy suitability scorecard
  • Table 32: Poland's O&M market readiness scorecard
  • Table 33: Poland's O&M service market strategy suitability scorecard
  • Table 34: Turkey's O&M market readiness scorecard
  • Table 35: Turkey's O&M market strategy scorecard
  • Table 36: Romania's O&M Market Readiness Scorecard
  • Table 37: Romania's O&M service market strategy suitability scorecard
  • Table 38: Spain's market readiness scorecard
  • Table 39: Spain's O&M service market strategy suitability scorecard
  • Table 40: Italy's O&M market readiness scorecard
  • Table 41: Italy's O&M service market strategy suitability scorecard
  • Table 42: China's O&M market readiness scorecard
  • Table 43: China's O&M service market strategy suitability scorecard
  • Table 44: India's O&M market readiness scorecard
  • Table 45: India's O&M service market strategy suitability scorecard
  • Table 46: Australia's O&M market readiness scorecard
  • Table 47: Australia's O&M service market strategy suitability scorecard
  • Table 48: South Africa's O&M market readiness scorecard
  • Table 49: South Africa's O&M service market strategy suitability scorecard
  • Table 50: O&M market scorecards result summary
  • Table 51: Pros and cons of different maintenance strategies
  • Table 52: 20-year failure rate inputs for all scenarios
  • Table 53: Periodic maintenance cost and frequency
  • Table 54: Component cost assumptions
  • Table 55: Component downtime per failure assumptions (days)
  • Table 56: Average labor cost per failure assumptions
  • Table 57: Major component crane assumptions
  • Table 58: Average crane cost per failure assumptions
  • Table 59: Lead time assumptions
  • Table 60: Transportation time assumptions
  • Table 61: CMS costs
  • Table 62: Total failure cost for all gearbox failures for a given population.
  • Table 63: Gearbox CMS parameters for major failure modes*
  • Table 64: Compound gearbox CMS parameters
  • Table 65: Major component CMS parameter assumptions
  • Table 66: Additional failure cost due to secondary damage
  • Table 67: Economies of scale for CMS
  • Table 68: Farm parameters
  • Table 69: Periodic maintenance costs
  • Table 70: Component risk factors and failure scenario
  • Table 71: Supply chain factors
  • Table 72: Condition monitoring system (CMS) factors
  • Table 73: Major component lifetime O&M costs
  • Table 74: Scorecard output based on the lifetime cost comparison*
  • Table 75: Normalized scorecard result
  • Table 76: Case 1 - 3MW turbines, 630MW wind farm
  • Table 77: Case 1 - 2MW turbines, 420MW wind farm
  • Table 78: Case 1 - 1MW turbines, 210MW wind farm
  • Table 79: Case 2 - 3MW turbines, 315MW wind farm
  • Table 80: Case 2 - 2MW turbines, 210MW wind farm
  • Table 81: Case 2 - 1MW turbines, 105MW wind farm
  • Table 82: Case 3 - 3MW turbines, 210MW wind farm
  • Table 83: Case 3 - 2MW turbines, 140MW wind farm
  • Table 84: Case 3 - 1MW turbines, 70MW wind farm
  • Table 85: Case 4 - 3MW turbines, 105MW wind farm
  • Table 86: Case 4 - 2MW turbines, 70MW wind farm
  • Table 87: Case 4 - 1MW turbines, 35MW wind farm
  • Table 88: Case 5 - 3MW turbines, 630MW wind farm
  • Table 89: Case 5 - 2MW turbines, 420MW wind farm
  • Table 90: Case 5 - 1MW turbines, 210MW wind farm
  • Table 91: Case 6 - 3MW turbines, 315MW wind farm
  • Table 92: Case 6 - 2MW turbines, 210MW wind farm
  • Table 93: Case 6 - 1MW turbines, 105MW wind farm
  • Table 94: Case 7 - 3MW turbines, 210MW wind farm
  • Table 95: Case 7 - 2MW turbines, 140MW wind farm
  • Table 96: Case 7 - 1MW turbines, 70MW wind farm
  • Table 97: Case 8 - 3MW turbines, 105MW wind farm
  • Table 98: Case 8 - 2MW turbines, 70MW wind farm
  • Table 99: Case 8 - 1MW turbines, 35MW wind farm
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