Abstract
STUDY SUMMARY
“US Mobile Wireless Backhaul 2011: Cable joins Copper, Fiber and
Microwave to Meet Edge and Middle Network Needs” is a detailed
analysis of the US mobile backhaul market and the emerging role of cable
operators.
Particular strategic and technical strengths of cable operators and cable MSO
plant that may translate into success in the US mobile wireless backhaul
service market are detailed. The study also explains and enumerates drivers
and inflection points that are now making mobile wireless backhaul an
attractive opportunity for cable operators.
An analysis of the US backhaul market is given along with the success of the
use of other technologies such as fiber, microwave and copper links. Driving
trends in the mobile wireless and backhaul markets such as the overall growth
of wireless subscribers, 3.5G and 4G subscribers, data device use, base
stations per tower as well as base station, middle-of-network elements and
tower deployments are detailed. Also analyzed are 3.5G and 4G base station
deployments and capital expenditures as well as future trends in voice
minutes, data ARPU and overall ARPU and the migration to 3.5G and 4G.
Figures are provided through year-end 2015 for cable operator mobile backhaul
service revenues, base stations deployed and connected to backhaul by cable
operators and the technology choice used to backhaul the base stations. In
addition, the study also provides the number of backhaul links cable operators
could provision for middle-of-the-network elements such as RNCs, BSCs and LTE
Gateways and the annual and monthly revenues earned from providing backhaul to
these mobile wireless middle network links.
Existing and future backhaul capacities per base station by generation and per
cell site are quantified through 2015 as are mobile wireless carrier network
and backhaul operating expenditures.
TOPICS
- Cable industry revenues from providing mobile backhaul services
- Positioning where cable operators can make their mark in the mobile
wireless
- backhaul market
- Number of base stations that receive backhaul from cable operators
- Competition to cable operators in the mobile wireless backhaul market
- Key challenges cable operators face in the mobile wireless backhaul market
- Role cable operators will play in the middle and edge of network backhaul
segments
- Cable backhaul opportunities by technology (fiber, coax)
- Mobile wireless backhaul bottlenecks and challenges
BACKHAUL AND MOBIILE WIRELESS TRENDS THROUGH 2015
Total value of backhaul services (radio access and switching components) Cost
of backhaul to base stations Average backhaul cost per base station Total
mobile wireless network operating expenses Mobile wireless network capital
expenditures Mobile wireless backhaul links employed Mobile wireless backhaul
links by capacity Mobile wireless backhaul links by access technology
(wireless or wireline) Mobile wireless backhaul links by technology (copper,
coax, microwave, fiber, free space optics, satellite, other) Mobile wireless
backhaul lines by transport mode (TDM/mixed vs. Ethernet) Mobile wireless base
station sites in use Average number of mobile wireless base stations per site
Mobile wireless sites by total backhaul capacity employed Mobile wireless base
stations deployed total and by generation (2.5G, 3G, 3.5G/4G) Mobile wireless
subscribers and 3.5G/4G subscribers Mobile wireless subscribers to voice, data
and total ARPU Mobile wireless base stations with access to fiber Mobile
wireless network upgrade trends Deployments of mobile wireless switching gear
(MSC, BSC/RNC)
Research Methodology
Visant studies are the result of primary and secondary research. Analysts
gather information via interviews with marketing and engineering executives
and through corporate reports, databases, and other secondary sources.
Evaluations are made based on the current performance of various components of
a particular technology, including need, market potential, technology
evolution, maturation, price points, and the companies and resources being put
towards the development or deployment.
Analyst Time
Visant reports include one hour of client support time with the author(s) of
the report. This can be used to be walked through some aspects of the report
of most interest or to gather additional insight to some of the conclusions of
the report or its findings.
About Visant Strategies
Visant Strategies is a New York-based strategic market research and
consulting firm that focuses on emerging wireless markets. The company was
founded by veteran analysts with over twenty five years of combined experience
in the analysis and study of emerging technologies. The company focuses upon
wireless narrowband and broadband markets as well as wireless components.
Visant Strategies research intends to be independent, realistic and unbiased.
Table of Contents
1.0 Executive Summary
2.0 Making the Case: Cable Operators and Cellular Backhaul
- 2.1 Why Backhaul is the Bet to Make Now
- 2.2 Why Cable Operators are a Perfect Fit for Mobile Wireless Backhaul
Services
- 2.3 Hundreds of Thousands 3.5G and 4G BTSs Will Need More Backhaul Capacity
- 2.4 Mobile Wireless Base Stations are Within Reach of Cable Plant
- 2.5 Cable Infrastructure is Ready for Mobile Wireless Backhaul
- 2.6 The Competition and Why Cable Operators Can Compete
- 2.6.1 Free of Comprising Ties
- 2.6.2 No Legacy to Protect
- 2.6.3 High Speed Infrastructure
- 2.6.4 Trust Factor
- 3.0 Challenges Cable Operators Face in Mobile Wireless Backhaul
- 3.1 Distance
- 3.2 Competition: Getting there first
- 3.3 Self Provisioned Backhaul: Point-to-Point Microwave
4.0 Figures for Cable Operators and Mobile Wireless Backhaul
- 4.1 Base Stations using Backhaul from Cable Operators
- 4.2 Cable Providing Backhaul to Base Stations by Platform (HFC and Fiber)
- 4.3 Cable Operator Revenues from Backhaul to Base Stations
- 4.4 Cable Operator Revenues from Backhaul to the Middle of the Network
Elements
5.0 United States Mobile Carriers, Backhaul Plans and Objectives
- 5.1 AT&T Wireless
- 5.2 Sprint and Clearwire
- 5.3 T-Mobile
- 5.4 Verizon Wireless
6.0 Mobile Wireless Backhaul and Mobile Wireless Market Trends
- 6.1 Summary of Trends
- 6.2 3.5G/4G are here
- 6.3 Mobile Wireless Services Mostly Unscathed by Recession
- 6.4 Mobile Wireless Network Capital Expenditure Investment Remains Strong
- 6.5 United States Mobile Wireless Race Persists
- 6.6 Data Services Continue to Grow
- 6.7 Cost is Major Edge of Network Backhaul Challenge
- 6.8 Technology is Greatest Factor for Middle of Network Backhaul
- 6.9 New Solutions Taming the Backhaul Beast
- 6.10 Better to Build or Lease a Backhaul Network?
- 6.11 Incremental Upgrades and a Long Shelf Life
- 6.12 Copper Backhaul Challenged to Meet Increasing Backhaul Needs
- 6.13 Impact of WiMAX
7.0 The US Mobile Wireless Backhaul Market Through 2015
- 7.1 Backhaul Capacity per Base Station Generation and Future Capacity Needs
- 7.2 Fourth Generation Mobile Wireless Impact on Backhaul
- 7.3 Femtocells
- 7.4 Migration to IP, Multi-mode traffic
- 7.5 Flatter Network also Drives Backhaul Needs
8.0 Figures and Market Drivers
- 8.1 US Mobile Subscribers, Room for Growth with a Shift in Share
- 8.2 3.5 and 4G Subscribers will Fuel Greater Backhaul Needs
- 8.3 Cumulative Deployed Base Stations 2008 to 2015
- 8.4 Deployments and Shipments, Base Stations by Technology (2/2.5G, 3G,
3.5G/4G)
- 8.5 Deployments of MSCs and BSCs/RNCs
- 8.6 Cell Site Deployments and Average Base Stations per Site
- 8.7 Base Stations with Access to Fiber
- 8.8 Mobile Wireless Subscriber Data, Voice and Total ARPU
- 8.9 Base Stations by Backhaul Capacity
- 8.10 Base Station Sites by Total Backhaul Capacity
- 8.11 BSC/RNC and MSC Links by Backhaul Capacity
- 8.12 Backhaul Links by Fiber, Copper, Coax, Microwave, Free Space Optics
and Others
- 8.13 Ethernet vs. TDM/Mixed-Services Backhaul Links
- 8.14 Total Operating Expenses, US Mobile Carriers
- 8.15 Network Operating Expenses for the US Operator
- 8.16 Mobile Network Backhaul Expenditures for the US Operator
- 8.17 Edge of Network Backhaul Expenses for the US Operator
9.0 Additional Driver: Spectrum
- 9.1 Established 3.5G and 4G Spectrum
- 9.2 New 3.5G and 4G Spectrum
10.0 Appendix A: 3.5G and 4G Air Interfaces
- 10.1 HSPA and HSPA plus Defined
- 10.1.1 HSPA plus Status
- 10.1.2 HSPA plus Time to Market
- 10.1.3 HSPA plus Market Factors
- 10.1.3.1 HSPA plus Upgrade Complexity
- 10.1.3.2 HSPA plus Existing Networks
- 10.1.4 HSPA plus Backwards Compatibility
- 10.1.5 Proven Air Interface
- 10.1.6 HSPA plus With MIMO
- 10.1.7 HSPA plus Economies of Scale
- 10.1.8 The HSPA plus Low Risk Option
- 10.2 LTE
- 10.2.1 Definitions: LTE and SAE
- 10.2.2 Drivers: LTE and SAE
- 10.2.3 LTE Design Goals
- 10.2.4 LTE Enabling Technologies
- 10.2.5 LTE Current Tests, Deployment Status and Time to Market
- 10.2.6 LTE Backers
- 10.2.7 LTE Contract, Carrier Announcements and Deployments in 2010
- 10.3 Mobile WiMAX
- 10.3.1 802.16 and WiMAX, Background
- 10.3.2 Standards and Task Groups of Note
- 10.3.3 WiMAX Frequency Allocations
- 10.3.4 Summary of Mobile WiMAX (802.16e) Limitations
- 10.3.5 Mobile WiMAX Base Station and CPE Pricing
- 10.3.6 Mobile WiMAX Certification Expectations
- 10.3.7 Mobile WiMAX Interoperability
- 10.3.8 Proprietary and Competing Solutions to WiMAX, both Fixed and
Mobile
- 10.3.9 United States Mobile WiMAX carrier Clearwire Communications
- 10.3.10 Mobile WiMAX carriers UQ Communications and Yota
TABLES AND FIGURES
- Table -1
- Cellular Base Stations Utilizing Backhaul by Cable Operators
- and Total Base Stations Deployed
- United States 2009 - 2015
- Table -2
- Cellular Base Stations Utilizing Backhaul by Cable Operators
- Fiber vs.Coaxial Cable and Total Links
- United States 2009 - 2015
- Table -3
- Cable Operators
- Mobile Wireless Backhaul Service Revenues and Average Revenue per Month
- United States 2009 - 2015
- Table -4
- Cable Operators and Mobile Wireless Backhaul in the Middle Network
- Total Lines Serving BSCs, RNCs, and LTE Gateways
- United States 2009 - 2015
- Table -5
- Cable Operator Revenues from Mobile Wireless Backhaul Services
- Middle of Network and Edge of Mobile Network
- United States 2009 - 2015
- Table -6
- Homes Passed by Fiber to the Home (FTTH)
- United States 2009-2016
- Table -7
- Commercial Buildings Passed by Fiber
- Buildings Greater than 5,000 Sq Ft. of Space
- United States 2009-2016
- Table -8
- Mobile Subscribers and Penetration Rate
- All Technologies
- United States 2008-2015
- Table -9
- 3.5G and 4G Mobile Subscribers vs. All Mobile Subscribers
- United States 2008-2015
- Table -10
- Cumulative and Annual Mobile Base Station Deployments
- All Technologies
- United States 2008-2015
- Table -11
- Base Stations Deployed, Total Mobile Subscribers and Average Number of
Subscribers per Base Station
- All Technologies
- United States 2008-2015
- Table -12
- Base Stations Deployed by Technology
- 2G/2.5G, 3G, 3.5/4G and Total
- United States 2008-2015
- Table -13
- Mobile Switching Center/Central Switching Center and
- Base Station Controller/Radio Network Controller Deployments
- United States 2008-2015
- Table -14
- Mobile Base Station Sites in Use
- United States 2008-2015
- Table -15
- Average Number of Base Stations per Site
- United States 2008-2015
- Table -16
- Mobile Wireless Base Stations Connected by Fiber vs. All Base Stations
Deployed
- All Technologies
- United States 2008-2015
- Table -17
- Voice, Data and Total Average Revenue per Unit and Voice and Data Share of
Total ARPU
- All Technologies
- United States 2008-2015
- Table -18
- Base Station Deployments by Backhaul Capacity
- > 24 Mbps; 18 Mbps to < 24 Mbps; 12 Mbps to < 18 Mbps; 6 Mbps to
< 12 Mbps and <6 Mbps
- United States 2008-2015
- Table -19
- Base Station Sites by Backhaul Capacity
- < 10 Mbps; 10 to 45 Mbps; 45 to 155 Mbps; and 155 Mbps and above
- United States 2008-2015
- Table -20
- Network Elements Deployed by Backhaul Capacity
- > 1,000 Mbps; 622 Mbps to < 1,000 Mbps; 155 Mbps to < 622 Mbps;
and < 155 Mbps
- BSC/RNC, MSC and Collector Points
- United States 2008-2015
- Table -21
- Wireline, Wireless and Total Backhaul Links
- For MSC, BSC/RNC, Collector Point and BTS Connections
- United States 2008 - 2015
- Table -22
- Backhaul Links for Middle Network Elements in Use by Technology
- Microwave, Fiber, Copper, Coaxial Cable, Free Space Optics and Others
- United States 2008 - 2015
- Table -23
- Backhaul Links by Access Technology
- Ethernet vs. TDM/Multi Service Systems
- United States 2008-2015
- Table -24
- Mobile Carrier Total Operating Expenditures
- Total Expenditures and Expenditures per Subscriber
- United States 2008-2015
- Table -25
- Wireless Network Operating Expenditures
- Total Expenditures and Expenditures per Subscriber
- US Market 2008-2015
- Table -26
- Wireless Network Operator Average Backhaul Operating Expense and Backhaul
Cost per Subscriber
- United States 2008-2015
- Table -27
- Wireless Operator Base Station Backhaul Expense and Average Backhaul
Expense Per Base Station
- United States 2008-2015
