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市場調查報告書

美國的資產市場:規模的測量與市場機會

Wealth in the US: Sizing the Market Opportunity 2017

出版商 GlobalData 商品編碼 356445
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 47 Pages
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美國的資產市場:規模的測量與市場機會 Wealth in the US: Sizing the Market Opportunity 2017
出版日期: 2017年03月16日 內容資訊: 英文 47 Pages
簡介

美國為全球最大的資產市場,以高度發展的投資信託為首,提供各種金融服務。國民多有金融資產相關知識,積極投資股票和投資信託。美國的成人總人口中「中產以上」(有5萬美元以上的流動資產者) 的比率也達到約2/3。這與全球第二大市場歐洲的相比(20.1%),可說是非常高的比率。還有富裕階級 (流動資產100萬美元以上) 的人數也達到總人口的1.8%,預計以每年7%左右的速度增加。

本報告提供美國的資產市場相關分析,中產以上者 (Affluent individuals) 及富裕階級 (高淨值投資者(HNW)) 的人口和流動資產總額趨勢,存款、資產投資的偏好和想法,非流動資產 (避險基金、不動產、商品等) 的想法,主要的推動及阻礙市場要素,今後的市場趨勢預測等相關調查。

摘要整理

  • 分析的要點
  • 主要的成功因素

美國的資產市場規模與其預測

  • 美國的中產以上者,達到成人總人口的約2/3
    • 富裕階級 (高淨值投資者(HNW)) 的投資者達到整體市場的1.8%,一年比一年富裕
  • 流動資產總額的增加率,每年激烈變動
    • 中產以上的投資者的資產額大幅度增加,帶給資產管理企業巨大的市場機會
    • 富裕階級保有流動資產的1/3市場,其比率年年上升

美國的資產管理市場的促進成長要素

  • 2015年的市場成長率低迷,今後5年其趨勢將不變
    • 美國市場,股票、投資信託的比重非常大
    • 債權市場也正逐漸復活,不過,市場上股票、投資信託的比重至今仍重
  • 存款總額,受到緩慢的通貨膨脹和利率上升的恩惠,減速並踏實增加
    • 通貨膨脹率緩慢上升,和利率的窄幅提升,都幾乎沒有影響存款市場
    • GDP成長,只要不喚起實際工資率的上升和消費考量,對存款分配影響不強
  • 存款、股票、投資信託,更強力連結股市的整體趨勢
    • 近幾年有停頓趨勢美國的股票市場規模,2016年在艱難中起步
    • 由於量的緩和 (QE) 和零利率政策的影響消失,個人債權市場自2016年開始急速成長
    • 股市的業績也直接影響股票、投資信託

富裕階級對投資的偏好

  • 傳統投資富裕階級的可運用資產的28.1%,投入不同的領域
    • 避險基金:富裕階級中最受歡迎的非流動資產
  • 富裕階級的總資產的6.1%,投入委外市場
    • 「客戶的匿名性」、「節稅效果」,是海外投資的最大的推動因素
    • 英國和日本,是最受美國的富裕階級歡迎的金融中心

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目錄

"Wealth in the US: Sizing the Market Opportunity 2017" analyzes the American wealth and retail savings and investments markets, with a focus on the HNW segment. The report is based on our proprietary datasets.

The US is home to the largest affluent population in the world and hosts a very advanced financial services sector, including the most sophisticated mutual fund and equity markets globally. The large affluent population is financially literate with high retail participation in both equities and mutual funds. US wealth managers thus have a lucrative target market onshore. In the future, growth in the affluent population's liquid assets will be pronounced compared to other developed economies. At the end of 2016, over two thirds of the US adult population was considered affluent, making the US home to the largest affluent population in the world.

Specifically the report -

  • Sizes the affluent market (both by number of individuals and the value of their liquid assets) using our proprietary datasets.
  • Analyzes which asset classes are favored by American investors and how their preferences impact the growth of the total savings and investments market.
  • Examines HNW clients' attitudes towards non-traditional investments such as property and commodities.
  • Identifies key drivers and booking centers for offshore investments.
  • Examines the tax landscape in the US and future implications for investors.

Scope

  • HNW individuals account for 1.8% of the US population and their numbers are expected to swell by over 5% year-on-year to 2020. UHNW individuals (those with over $10m in assets) are expected to increase by almost 10%.
  • The US retail investments market remains buoyant, but growth slowed significantly throughout 2014 and 2015, largely due to outflows of equities following a bumper year for the stock market in 2013.
  • HNW individuals are allocating over a tenth of their investible assets outside of traditional investments, with private equity, commodity funds, and direct property investments the most popular alternative choices in 2016
  • Offshore investments sit at 12.8%, with geographic diversification and tax efficiency the main drivers. Following the onset of the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), client anonymity has diminished significantly as a driver of offshoring.

Reasons to buy

  • Benchmark your share of the American wealth market against the current market size.
  • Forecast your future growth prospects using our projections for the market to 2020.
  • Identify your most promising client segment by analyzing penetration of affluent individuals in the US.
  • Evaluate your HNW proposition by understanding how the American tax system impacts HNW clients.
  • Review your offshore strategy by identifying HNW motivations for offshore investments and their preferred booking centers.

Table of Contents

  • 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
  • 1.1. Key findings 2
  • 1.2. Critical success factors 2
  • 2. SIZING AND FORECASTING THE US WEALTH MARKET 8
  • 2.1. Affluent individuals in the US account for more than two thirds of the adult population 8
  • 2.1.1. Regional strategies are critical to effectively competing in such a large and diverse market 8
  • 2.1.2. HNW investors account for 1.8% of the market, and the very rich will get richer 9
  • 2.2. Overall growth of total liquid assets has been highly variable in recent years 10
  • 2.2.1. Wealth held by affluent investors has risen robustly, providing wealth managers with ample opportunities 10
  • 2.2.2. US HNW individuals hold over a third of total liquid assets - a share that will rise 10
  • 3. DRIVERS OF GROWTH IN THE US WEALTH MARKET 12
  • 3.1. 2016 saw moderate growth, and the four-year outlook is one of cautious optimism 12
  • 3.1.1. A late cycle economic bounce will result in continued expansion of retail wealth 12
  • 3.1.2. The US market is heavily weighted towards equity and mutual funds 13
  • 3.1.3. Bonds will rally slightly in 2017, but the market will remain weighted to mutual funds and equities 15
  • 3.2. Deposits will see slightly slower but steadier growth, supported by benign inflation and higher interest rates 16
  • 3.2.1. A moderate rise in inflation and small interest rate hikes will have little effect on the deposit market 17
  • 3.2.2. GDP growth is also unlikely to strongly affect deposit allocations, especially if there is no real wage upturn to kickstart consumer spending 17
  • 3.2.3. The closure of the FDIC Transaction Account Guarantee program has diminished the attractiveness of deposits 17
  • 3.3. Bonds, equities, and mutual funds are more closely aligned with the fortunes of the stock market 18
  • 3.3.1. The US stock market recovered in 2016 after stagnating in 2015 18
  • 3.3.2. Retail bonds are to maintain moderate growth over the forecast period as the effects of QE and the zero interest rate policy diminish 20
  • 3.3.3. Bonds may lose their ultra-safe image as the effects of QE fall out of the US bond market 20
  • 3.3.4. The performance of the stock market also has a direct impact on equities and mutual funds 21
  • 3.3.5. Mutual funds in the US have become heavily weighted towards equities 23
  • 3.3.6. The US ETF industry will only continue to grow and evolve to meet the needs of retail investors 24
  • 4. HNW INVESTMENT PREFERENCES 26
  • 4.1. HNW individuals allocate 14% of their investible assets outside of traditional investments 26
  • 4.1.1. Private equity funds, commodity funds, and direct property investments are the most popular HNW illiquid assets 26
  • 4.1.2. Private equity rides high and will continue to expand in 2017 26
  • 4.2. HNW individuals hold 12.8% of their assets offshore 27
  • 4.2.1. US HNW investors have usually had among the lowest proportion of assets offshore 27
  • 4.2.2. Achieving truly global portfolio exposure is the main offshore driver 28
  • 4.2.3. Personal tax rates are high but are a diminishing driver for offshore investment 29
  • 4.2.4. Trump's proposed tax cuts are likely to further eliminate tax efficiency as a driver of offshoring 30
  • 4.2.5. The UK, Canada, and China are now the most popular booking centers for US HNW individuals 31
  • 4.2.6. FATCA IGAs have been signed with a significant number of countries 32
  • 4.2.7. Amnesties have been set up to encourage wealth onshore 33
  • 5. APPENDIX 35
  • 5.1. Abbreviations and acronyms 35
  • 5.2. Supplementary data 36
  • 5.3. Definitions 39
  • 5.3.1. Affluent 39
  • 5.3.2. Bonds 40
  • 5.3.3. Cash 40
  • 5.3.4. Deposits 40
  • 5.3.5. Domicile 40
  • 5.3.6. Double taxation convention 40
  • 5.3.7. Equities 40
  • 5.3.8. Exchange of information 40
  • 5.3.9. FATCA 41
  • 5.3.10. HNW 41
  • 5.3.11. Liquid assets 42
  • 5.3.12. Mass affluent 42
  • 5.3.13. Mutual funds 42
  • 5.3.14. Onshore 42
  • 5.3.15. Residency 42
  • 5.4. Methodology 43
  • 5.4.1. 2016 Global Wealth Managers Survey 43
  • 5.4.2. 2015 Global Wealth Managers Survey 43
  • 5.4.3. Global Retail Investments Analytics methodology 43
  • 5.4.4. Forecasting methodology 44
  • 5.4.5. Global Wealth Model methodology 44
  • 5.5. Bibliography 45
  • 5.6. Further reading 45

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Federal income tax rates and income bands for 2017 23
  • Table 2: US: adult population segmented by affluent category and asset band (000s), 2010-15 29
  • Table 3: US: adult population segmented by affluent category and asset band (000s), 2016-20 30
  • Table 4: US: retail wealth segmented by affluent category and asset band (000s), 2010-15 31
  • Table 5: US: retail wealth segmented by affluent category and asset band (000s), 2016-20 32

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: More than two thirds of the US population is affluent, which represents the world's largest wealth opportunity 9
  • Figure 2: HNW and mass affluent individuals account for almost all onshore US liquid assets 11
  • Figure 3: The US retail savings and investments market will show moderate growth over the forecast period 13
  • Figure 4: Equity and mutual fund holdings account for 67.6% of the total onshore market 14
  • Figure 5: The US market is heavily weighted towards equity and mutual funds 16
  • Figure 6: Deposits will see steady growth, adding $2.02tn over four years 18
  • Figure 7: The US stock markets ended 2016 on an all-time high 19
  • Figure 8: Retail bond holdings will see modest growth after snapping their losing streak in 2015 21
  • Figure 9: Mutual funds and equities mirror the NYSE Index 23
  • Figure 10: US mutual funds are heavily weighted in equities 24
  • Figure 11: Direct property investments are the most popular asset outside traditional liquid allocations 27
  • Figure 12: US HNW individuals allocate 12.8% of their wealth offshore 28
  • Figure 13: Global diversification and tax efficiency are the main drivers of offshoring wealth 29
  • Figure 14: The UK, Canada, and China are now the booking centers of choice for US HNW citizens 32
  • Figure 15: Aside from FATCA, tax agreements have been signed across the world 33
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