Abstract
Summary
“Finally. A model for predicting the price fall of generics proven to
have worked for 99% of drugs”
It has long been recognised that prices paid by chemists and doctors for a
generic product decline in the weeks and months after generic launch and
patent expiry. But calculating how quickly this happens can often only be
guessed at - until now
How to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices - A practical method to
estimate future generic product prices is a unique guide that will help
you be able to forecast future generic prices before and after launch.
Specifically designed to be instantly usable, this publication, presents a
tried and tested methodology to predict how the price of a generic medicine
will fall after patent expiry and launch.
The practical guide, which is produced by URCH Publishing in association with
WaveData, a medical price analysis company, will allow users to build
spreadsheets and forecast products prices as required.
The model presented is based on solid methodology drawing from over 6 year' s
work (over 60,000 hours) cataloguing 6 million pharmaceutical prices. A 120
real-life examples of generic product were studied to find patterns of price
decay.
The model takes into account both regional drug reimbursement policies and the
brand value of the product.
20 tables provide detailed percentage points according to the number of
generic licence holders entering the marketplace post patent-expiry.
The model works in the absence of government price capping, where the price
decay happens as a result of competition between suppliers (free pricing)
rather than statuary price reductions, and the reimbursement price is high
enough to allow free pricing.
5 Reasons to Invest in this Report
- Stop using “rule of thumb” to calculate the decline in price
- Adopt the suggested methodology immediately
- Easily understandable, designed for the non-statistician
- Follow clear instructions to build your own spreadsheet models
- Adjust the number of expected competitors with first 3 years of launch
This unique guide is a must have for all:
- Pricing and reimbursement executives
- Marketing Managers in Generic Drug Companies
- Strategy directors in pharmaceutical companies
- Consultancies with an interest in pharmaceutical markets
Buy this model and get a year' s FREE subscription to PROfesy CR an online
modelling tool to forecast generic erosion.
Table of Contents
- 1. Summary
- 2. Introduction
- 3. Mechanism
- 4. Background to the study
- Modelling
- Reimbursement
- Brand value
- Regional factors
- 6. A Step By Step Guide to Forecasting the Decline in a Generic Drug Price
10 7.
- Conclusion
Appendix 1. Calculation Tables According to Number of Generic Licence
Holders 20
Appendix 2. Sterling (£) exchange rates 1 June 2006 40
References
List of Figures:
- Figure 1. Generic Price Decay
- Figure 2. Variations in Price Decay of Generics (Time vs. Percentage Fall)
- Figure 3. D Factor used in calculations
- Figure 4. Reduction in forecast value due to various D factors
- Figure 5. Generic Prescribing in the UK, 1996-2006
- Figure 6. D Factor used in calculations
- Figure 7. Enter reimbursement price in Spreadsheet
- Figure 8. Reimbursement price for 36 months
- Figure 9. Estimate number of licence holders
- Figure 10. Enter number of generic competitors over 36 months
- Figure 11. Find appropriate calculation table
- Figure 12. Number of generic licence holders may vary
- Figure 13. Find 36 monthly values
- Figure 14. Calculate the % of original reimbursement price
- Figure 15. Calculate the % of original price each month
- Figure 16. Multiply forecast by % of reimbursement price
- Figure 17. Final Generic Forecast 18
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