Thintri, Inc. announces the release of a new market study, The Titanium Age: Markets, Opportunities and new Processes. This report, the third version of Thintri's initial titanium study analyzes current markets in titanium, pricing and supply issues in a range of titanium products like scrap, sponge, ingot, plate, etc., and effects of current economic and demand conditions. The report also discusses emerging market opportunities through the maturing of technologies that promise to reduce the cost of titanium extraction, manufac-turing, machining and welding. Forecasts are provided for both traditional and potential new titanium markets in a number of key sectors.
Titanium, a resource with enormous potential in a large number of markets, has been hobbled by high costs and volatile prices, processing difficulties, supply issues and industry-wide inefficiencies. Titanium has the highest strength to density ratio of any metal, is essentially nonmagnetic, and is highly resistant to corrosion, even in hostile environments like salt water. Furthermore, it is highly biocompatible. Titanium has become well established in aerospace, trucks and heavy vehicles, medicine, chemical processing and general industry.
In recent years titanium suppliers have worked hard to bring the benefits of titanium to new applications, but just as new markets for titanium have opened up, the supply of titanium tightened considerably, with notable effects on prices. Much of the constricting of supply was attributable to sharply rising aerospace demand as well as greater use in steel production, which reduced the supply of scrap. These factors led to an extraordinary runup in prices, where some more than doubled in a single year, and some users were simply unable to obtain the titanium they needed. The volatility dampened enthusiasm for titanium in new markets where it offers substantial long term cost savings.
In response, suppliers of titanium sponge rapidly moved to expand their output. Very soon, however, markets and prices dropped with the recession. Today, titanium demand is sluggish at best for most (but not all) applications, largely due to plunging markets in oil & gas and an economic slowdown in China. Industry experts indicate that as large aerospace consumers such as Boeing and Airbus work through inventories, expected in late 2016 or early 2017, and the oil & gas sectors bottoms out, demand will rebound.
Throughout all this, a number of low cost processing technologies have continued development that promise titanium (commercially pure and alloyed), potentially at greatly reduced cost. These processes, some of which are already commercialized, will significantly reduce costs in extraction, machining, welding and manufacture of titanium, while relieving availability problems that have plagued users in the past. The promise of supply stability and lower prices will create an opening whereby new markets can be captured, bringing titanium to a broad range of new applications. Low cost production processes could a substantial investment opportunity.
Understand the Markets
Thintri's new market study analyzes the current state of traditional titanium markets and current economic conditions. The effects of emerging low cost titanium processes and the market forces that will determine the future of the industry are investigated in detail. New and sometimes unexpected market opportunities are analyzed and forecasts are provided for both traditional markets, some of them unaffected by low cost processes, and new market opportunities created by low cost titanium.
The report is based on more than 100 in-depth interviews with experts from industry, Government and academia, as well as a broad range of published materials.
The Titanium Industry, Markets and Forecasts
Titanium, raw materials production
Supply Side - Capacity
Current and Historical Prices, Forecasts
- New aircraft
- Chemical processing
- Power generation
- Automotive- Cars- Trucks and heavy vehicles
- Surgical instruments
Emerging Markets and Latent Demand
- Effect of new processes
- Extraction (Armstrong, MER, etc.)
- Aerospace markets
- Automotive markets
- Industrial markets
Table of Contents
- E1 Introduction
- E2 Background: Titanium
- E3 The Titanium Industry Today
- E4 Supply and Capacity Issues
- E5 Price Trends
- E6 Demand Outlook
- E7 Commercialization of Low Cost Titanium Processes
- E8 Effect of a New Low-Cost Player
- E9 Latent Demand
Part I: Titanium Background
- 1.1 Overview
- 1.2 Titanium in Industry
- 1.3 History
- 1.4 Titanium Production
- 1.5 Issues with Titanium
Part II: Industry Landscape
- 2.1 The Demand Side.
- 2.1.1 The Aerospace Sector.
- 220.127.116.11 Titanium Deployment in Aircraft
- 18.104.22.168 The Evolving Aerospace Market
- 22.214.171.124 Regulations and Certification
- 2.1.2 Industry, Chemical Processing, etc
- 126.96.36.199 Industrial Markets
- 188.8.131.52.1 Chemical Processing
- 184.108.40.206.2 Other Industry and Manufacture
- 2.1.3 Medical Applications
- 2.1.4 Consumer Markets.
- 2.1.5 Automotive Applications
- 220.127.116.11 Passenger Cars
- 18.104.22.168 Trucks and Heavy Vehicles
- 2.2 The Supply Side.
- 2.2.1 Titanium Supply, Demand and Price Dynamics
- 2.2.2 Pre-Melt: Sponge and Scrap
- 22.214.171.124 Sponge
- 126.96.36.199 Scrap.
- 2.2.3 Melt Products
- 2.2.4 Mill Products
- 2.2.5 Capacity Today
- 2.3 Demand Drivers, Effects on Prices
- 2.3.1 The Aerospace Factor
- 2.3.2 Other Factors in Supply
- 2.3.3 The Effect on New Markets
- 2.4 Industry Contracts, Agreements and Price Negotiations
Part III: Cost Issues, Lead Times and Today's Market Outlook
- 3.1 Effects of Price Volatility and Industry Structure
- 3.2 Price Behavior and Forecasts
- 3.2.1 Sponge
- 3.2.2 Scrap
- 3.2.3 Melt Products
- 188.8.131.52 Slab
- 184.108.40.206 Ingot
- 220.127.116.11 Electrodes
- 18.104.22.168 Plate
- 22.214.171.124.1 Plate Prices
- 126.96.36.199.2 Toll Rolling
- 3.3 Today's Market Outlook
- 3.3.1 Effects of the Slowdown
- 3.3.2 Recovery of the Titanium Industry
- 3.4 Lead Times
Part 4: Commercialization of Low-Cost Titanium
- 4.1 Introduction
- 4.2 Raw Material Issues
- 4.3 Composition and Alloying
- 4.4 Quality, Purity, Performance
- 4.5 Ore-To-Metal Processes
- 4.5.1 MER/DuPont
- 4.5.2 Rio Tinto
- 4.5.3 UTRS, Inc
- 4.6 The Powder Advantage
- 4.6.1 Introduction
- 4.6.2 MMS-Scanpac
- 4.6.3 University of Utah
- 4.6.4 ADMA Products
- 4.6.5 ITP/Cristal Metals
- 4.6.6 Metalysis.
- 4.6.7 Oak Ridge/Boeing
- 4.6.8 Powder Applications, Demand & Pricing
- 4.6.9 Metal Injection Molding
- 4.6.10 3-D Printing/Additive Manufacturing
- 4.7 Manufacture & Fabrication
- 4.7.1 American Titanium Works
- 4.7.2 Ti Squared Technologies
- 4.8 Machining
- 4.9 Welding
- 4.10 Titanium Process Commercialization
- 4.11 Effect of a New, Low-Cost Player
Part 5: Latent Demand and Market Opportunities
- 5.1 Current Market Outlook: Conventional and Latent Demand
- 5.2 Consumer Markets
- 5.2.1 Established Consumer Applications
- 188.8.131.52 Sporting Goods
- 184.108.40.206 Jewelry
- 220.127.116.11 Architecture
- 18.104.22.168 Marine Markets
- 22.214.171.124 Price and Supply Issues
- 126.96.36.199 Latent Consumer Demand
- 5.3 Automotive Markets.
- 5.3.1 Trucks and Commercial Vehicles
- 188.8.131.52 Turbocharger Compressor Wheels
- 184.108.40.206 Valve Train.
- 220.127.116.11 Connecting Rods
- 18.104.22.168 Exhaust Systems
- 22.214.171.124 Suspensions
- 5.3.2 Opportunities in Mass Market Autos
- 126.96.36.199 Valve Train, Valves, Valve Springs
- 188.8.131.52 Connecting Rods
- 184.108.40.206 Exhaust Systems
- 220.127.116.11 Suspensions
- 5.3.3 Racing, Motorcycles and Other Small Vehicles
- 5.3.4 Regulations and Fuel Economy
- 5.3.5 Economics.
- 5.3.6 Latent Automotive Demand.
- 5.4 General Industry, Oil & gas, Mining, etc
- 5.4.1 Chemical Processing, Pharmaceuticals, etc
- 5.4.2 Oil & Gas, Mining
- 5.4.3 Power Generation
- 5.4.4 Pulp & Paper
- 5.4.5 Desalination
- 5.4.6 Latent Industrial Demand
- 5.5 Aerospace
- 5.6 Defense
- 5.6.1 Armor
- 18.104.22.168 Armoring Vehicles
- 22.214.171.124 Non-Vehicle Armor
- 126.96.36.199 Fuel Economy
- 188.8.131.52 Procurement Issues
- 5.6.2 Naval Applications
- 5.6.3 Latent Defense Demand
- 5.7 Medical Markets.
- 5.7.1 Orthopedic Devices: Implants, Trauma Fixtures, etc
- 5.7.2 Surgical Instruments
- 5.7.3 Latent Medical Demand
Figures and Tables
- Figure ES-1 Sponge Capacity by Country
- Figure ES-2 Commercial Aircraft Deliveries, Passenger
- Figure ES-3 Titanium Use by Aircraft Type
- Figure ES-4 Sample Plate Price Trends, Alloy Plate
- Figure ES-5 Global Metallic Titanium Demand, Conventional Forecast.
- Figure ES-6 Global Titanium Demand by Market, Conventional Forecast, Industrial, Medical and Consumer Sectors
- Figure ES-7 Global Automotive Latent Demand
- Figure ES-8 Global Latent Defense Demand, Armor.
- Figure ES-9 Global Industrial Latent Demand
- Figure 1-1 Shares by Weight, Metallic Titanium versus Titanium in Pigment
- Table 2-1 Current Titanium Markets
- Figure 2-1 Industrial Titanium Markets
- Table 2-2 Commercial Automobile Titanium Components.
- Figure 2-2 Sponge Capacity Growth by Country
- Figure 2-3 Sponge Capacity Trends, US vs. Global.
- Figure 2-4 Scrap Availability Trends.
- Figure 2-5 Melt Product Capacity Trends
- Figure 2-6 Mill Product Capacity Trends
- Figure 2-7 Mill Product Demand Trends
- Figure 2-8 Titanium Use per Craft, by Aircraft Type.
- Figure 2-9 Commercial Aircraft Deliveries, Passenger
- Figure 2-10 Commercial Aircraft Deliveries, Freight
- Figure 3-1 Sponge Price Trends.
- Figure 3-2 Scrap Price Trends, Turnings.
- Figure 3-3 Scrap Price Trends, Bulk Weldable
- Figure 3-4 Scrap Price Trends, Clips
- Figure 3-5 Scrap Price Trends, Ferro-Titanium
- Figure 3-6 Slab Price Trends.
- Figure 3-7 Ingot Price Trends
- Figure 3-8 Electrode Price Trends.
- Figure 3-9 Forging/VAR Stock Price Trends.
- Figure 3-10 Plate Price Trends, B265 CP
- Figure 3-11 Plate Price Trends, 4911 Alloy.
- Figure 3-12 Toll Rolling Price Trends, B265 CP and 4911 Alloy Plate
- Figure 3-13 Global Metallic Titanium Demand, Conventional Forecast.
- Figure 3-14 Global Titanium Demand by Market, Conventional Forecast, Industrial, Medical and Consumer Sectors.
- Figure 3-15 Global Titanium Demand by Market, Conventional Forecast, Commercial Aerospace, Military Aerospace and Military Non-aerospace Sectors
- Figure 5-1 Overall Global Latent Titanium Demand
- Table 5-1 Titanium Tiles at the Guggenheim Museum, Bilbao, Spain.
- Figure 5-2 Global Latent Demand, Consumer Markets, Non-Automotive.
- Table 5-2 Existing and Potential Titanium Automotive Applications
- Figure 5-3 Global Latent Demand, Automotive Markets
- Figure 5-4 Global Latent Demand, Industrial Markets
- Figure 5-5 Commercial Aerospace Latent Demand.
- Figure 5-6 Global Latent Demand, Defense, Armor
- Figure 5-7 Global Latent Demand, Defense, Other.
- Figure 5-8 Global Latent Demand, Medical Implants.
- Figure 5-9 Global Latent Demand, Surgical Instruments