Abstract
The National Broadband Network (NBN) has been the centre of much activity and
discussions, with industry participants having different views on the matter.
However, one thing is common amongst the different opinions and beliefs -
Australians will have access to a high-speed broadband service that will
change the dynamics of the telecommunications industry.
Produced annually as the flagship report in Telsyte' s Market Analysis and
Forecast Series, this study provides a detailed investigation and
comprehensive analysis of the Australian telecommunications market in 2008 and
forecast for 2009 to 2013.
Key findings from this study include:
- In the 12 months to December 2008, the Australian broadband
telecommunications market (excluding business private data and private network
products), had a total of 5.94 million subscribers generating total service
revenue of $3.57 billion;
- Naked DSL allows the ADSL service to run over copper without the need for
a fixed line telephone service, hence providing end users with an alternative
to disconnect an under utilised fixed telephone service, and achieve cost
savings in the process;
- Decline in PSTN subscribers is mainly due to Australians replacing PSTN
services with mobile phones (fixed to mobile substitution - FMS), coupled with
the introduction of Naked DSL, where the PSTN service is no longer required to
have broadband connectivity;
- The number of residential/SME VoIP subscribers grew to over 377,000 by the
end of December 2008, representing year-on-year growth of just over 35%;
- In 2008, the Australian retail data communications market was worth $2.99
billion, an increase of 1.8% from 2007. Telsyte has observed that the rate of
migration to IP and the increased in bandwidth demand were able to marginally
offset the decline in service pricing since 2007;
- Telsyte expects post 2011, the emergence of SIP trunking and increase in
bandwidth demand will drive the data services market to grow at close to 4%
per annum. However post 2013, with the increased availability of bandwidth as
part of the NBN rollout, prices are expected to come under pressure;
- The offering of premium content on a subscription-based model on top of
telecom service access can generate an additional revenue stream for ISPs,
increasing monthly ARPU in the process; and
- Telsyte believes that mobile broadband is a complementary access
technology in the business market. However, Telsyte has observed substitution
effects in the consumer market, with certain segments of the market replacing
the fixed broadband connection.
Table of Contents
- 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- 2. INTRODUCTION
- 2.1 Methodology
- 2.2 Definitions
- 3. THE AUSTRALIAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LANDSCAPE 2008
- 4. THE AUSTRALIAN BROADBAND MARKET
- 4.1 xDSL Continues to Dominate
- 4.2 Emergence of Naked DSL
- 4.3 Wireless Broadband Growth
- 4.4 Satellite Remains a Key Element for Remote Australia
- 4.5 Broadband service provider performance review 2008
- 4.5.1 Telstra
- 4.5.2 Optus
- 4.5.3 iiNet
- 4.5.4 iPrimus
- 4.5.5 Internode
- 4.5.6 Soul/TPG
- 4.5.7 AAPT
- 5. AUSTRALIAN FIXED VOICE MARKET
- 5.1 The Australian PSTN Market
- 5.1.1 Telstra
- 5.1.2 Optus
- 5.2 Australian VoIP Market
- 5.2.1 Engin
- 5.2.2 iiNet
- 5.2.3 MyNetFone
- 6. THE AUSTRALIAN DATA SERVICES MARKET
- 6.1 Data Service Provider Performance Review 2008
- 6.1.1 Telstra
- 6.1.2 Optus/Uecomm
- 6.1.3 AAPT/PowerTel
- 6.1.4 Macquarie Telecom
- 7. THE CHANGING LANDSCAPE - IMPLICATIONS FOR ISPS
- 7.1 The National Broadband Network (NBN)
- 7.1.1 Questions Around the Economic Viability of the NBN
- 7.1.2 From the Perspective of the End User
- 7.1.3 Threats and Opportunities for Service Providers
- 7.2 Telecommunications and Media Convergence
- 7.3 Mobile Broadband
- 8. 2009-2013 MARKET FORECAST
- 8.1 Forecast Assumptions
- 8.2 The Australian Broadband Market Forecast
- 8.3 The Australian Fixed Voice Market Forecast
- 8.4 The Australian Data Services Market Forecast
- 9. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
- 10. RELATED RESEARCH
Figure
- Figure 1. - Australian Broadband Service Revenue by Technology, 2007 - 2008
- Figure 2. - Australian Broadband Subscribers by Technology, 2008
- Figure 3. - Australian Broadband Revenue by Service Providers, 2008
- Figure 4. - Australian PSTN Access Lines and Annual Service Revenue, 2003
- 2008
- Figure 5. - Australian PSTN Revenue Breakdown by Service Category, 2008
- Figure 6. - Australian Data Services Annual Revenue, 2007-2008
- Figure 7. - Australian Data Services Revenue Share by Technology, 2008
- Figure 8. - Australian Data Services Market Share by Service Provider, 2008
- Figure 9. - Australian Mobile Broadband Subscriber Share by Provider, 2008
- Figure 10. - Australian Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Forecast, 2009-2013
- Figure 11. - Australian PSTN Access Lines and Annual Service Revenue
Forecast, 2009 - 2013
- Figure 12. - Australian VoIP Subscriber & Service Revenue Forecast, 2009 -
2013
- Figure 13. - Australian Data Services Revenue Forecast by Technology,
2009-2013
Table
- Table 1. - Price Comparison With Naked DSL + VoIP vs Fixed Broadband +
Fixed Line, by Provider
- Table 2. - Telstra Broadband Key Performance Indicators, 2007-2008
- Table 3. - Optus Broadband Key Performance Indicators, 2007-2008
- Table 4. - iiNet Broadband Key Performance Indicators, 2007-2008
- Table 5. - iPrimus Broadband Key Performance Indicators, 2007-2008
- Table 6. - Internode Broadband Key Performance Indicators, 2007-2008
- Table 7. - Soul/TPG Broadband Key Performance Indicators, 2007-2008
- Table 8. - AAPT Broadband Key Performance Indicators, 2007-2008
- Table 9. - Residential/SME VoIP Key Performance Indicators, 2007-2008
- Table 10. - NBN Retail and Wholesale Monthly Access ARPU
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