澳洲的行動服務市場：2009年的檢視・2010-2014年的預測

澳洲的行動服務市場：2009年的檢視・2010-2014年的預測 是由出版商Telsyte在2010年04月所出版的。 這份英文市場調查報告書包含49 Pages 價格從美金4395起跳。

簡介

2009年澳洲的行動用戶比起往年成長8%，達2,550萬人，服務收益達到128億美元。

本報告，針對2009年澳洲的行動市場進行全面分析，並提供今後5年的市場預測，由下列摘要形式闡述。

第1章 報告摘要

第2章 簡介

• 調查方式
• 定義

第3章 澳洲的行動市場：2009年的檢視

• 市場概要檢視
• 商業・消費者市場的檢視
• 3G市場的檢視
• 行動寬頻市場的檢視
• 行動市場檢視的摘要
• 電信業者的實績・活動的檢視

第4章 市場預測・展望：2010-2014年

• 預測的前提條件
• 市場預測
• 24個月的市場展望

第5章 調查・結論

第6章 相關調查

圖表

目錄

Abstract

The global financial crisis that began in 2008 may have impacted many sectors of the Australian economy, but it did nothing to faze the country' s mobile industry in the past two years. Despite having one fewer major player, Australia' s mobile market continued to benefit from healthy competition and innovations around mobile broadband, smartphones and applications.

Produced annually as the flagship report in Telsyte' s Market Analysis and Forecast Series, this study provides a detailed investigation and comprehensive analysis of the Australian mobile market in 2009 and a five-year forecast from 2010 to 2014. Key findings from this study include:

• Australia had 25.5 million mobile user at year-end 2009, a 117% per-capita penetration level and year-on-year growth of 8%. Service revenue reached $12.8 billion, representing 9% annual growth.
• A saturated market has forced Australian mobile carriers to push the boundaries of the age brackets, introducing phones designed specifically for young children and senior citizens.
• As predicted by Telsyte early last year, 3G users surpassed 2G in mid-2009, growing by 38% throughout the year to constitute nearly 60% of all mobile users.
• The industry' s non-voice revenue mix climbed to 38% of carrier revenue. Messaging revenue contribution has shrunk to about one-half of non-voice activity.
• Overall mobile ARPU continued to rise to $43.5 per month, due to the strong uptake of 3G, non-messaging and mobile broadband services.
• Mobile broadband ARPU has halved in the past five years. Nonetheless, its revenue grew by a staggering 45% in 2009, driven by its 2.8 million users.
• Telstra remained the largest player in the total market as well as in 3G and mobile broadband. The merger of Vodafone and Hutchison has emerged as a strong numberthree player, and surpassed Optus in the all-important 3G segment.
• MVNOs had an eventful year, welcoming a number of new players - the most notable being supermarket giant Woolworths - and growing their collective market share to 4%.
• 3G mix as a percentage of total users is projected to grow from over two-thirds to 90% in the next five years. With LTE trials ushering in a new era this year, 2G is anticipated to be completely phased out by 2015.
• Mobile broadband will remain a hotly-contested market, with user numbers virtually matching fixed broadband by the end of the forecast period. However, mobile broadband growth is hurting carrier profitability due to a fast-growing cost and revenue disparity.
• Location-based services - as a standalone product and an enabling technology powering other location-aware applications - are expected to drive mobile application growth both in the business and consumer markets.
• In a bid to combat flattening mobile data revenue, Australian mobile carriers will introduce mobile QoS and revamp their portals to offer personalised services with network-based intelligence and tighter integration with application and device vendor partners.
• The battle for supremacy in the mobile device market has heated up again, with vendors launching the tablet form factor - "the fourth screen" to complement their three-screen strategies. Cross-screen interoperability and cloud-based synchronisation will be key to success.
• Although WiMAX will likely remain a niche technology, it has vast potential in selected applications and, like LTE, it will play a key role in serving Australians not covered by the NBN' s fibre network.
• Long-term mobile market growth will come from multi-device use, concierge services and machine-to-machine within such industries as automotive, utilities, industrial, retail and public safety.
• Conclusion and recommendations.

Table of Contents

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6

2 INTRODUCTION 8

• 2.1 Methodology 8
• 2.2 Definitions 9

3 2009 AUSTRALIAN MOBILE MARKET REVIEW 11

• 3.1 Overall Market Review 11
  • 3.1.1 Penetration reaching 117%... and counting 11
  • 3.1.2 Non-voice and 3G continue to drive ARPU growth 13
  • 3.1.3 Mobile broadband and content grow at SMS expense 15
  • 3.1.4 Overall market shares 16
• 3.2 Business and Consumer Market Review 17
• 3.3 3G Market Review 18
• 3.4 Mobile Broadband Market Review 21
• 3.5 Mobile Market Review Summary 23
• 3.6 Carrier Performance and Activity Review 24
  • 3.6.1 Telstra 24
  • 3.6.2 Optus 26
  • 3.6.3 VHA 28
  • 3.6.4 MVNO 30

4 2010-2014 MARKET FORECAST AND OUTLOOK 32

• 4.1 Forecast Assumptions 32
• 4.2 Market Forecast 32
  • 4.2.1 Subscriber forecast: towards 133% penetration in five years 32
  • 4.2.2 Service forecast: revenues outgrowing subscribers 33
  • 4.2.3 Paid content: fastest-growing non-voice category 35
  • 4.2.4 Technology generation forecast: glimpse of 4G LTE 35
  • 4.2.5 Billing status forecast: prepaid making a comeback 37
  • 4.2.6 Mobile broadband forecast: cost far outstripping revenue 38
  • 4.2.7 Five-year mobile market forecast summary 39
• 4.3 24-Month Market Outlook 40
  • 4.3.1 4G LTE: a new era has arrived 40
  • 4.3.2 Location driving both business and consumer app markets 42
  • 4.3.3 Mobile QoS and app-aware services 43
  • 4.3.4 Fresh new smartphone war has begun... again 44
  • 4.3.5 Rise of "fourth screen" and consumer cloud computing 44
  • 4.3.6 Emergence of carrier-owned app stores and concierge services 45
  • 4.3.7 New vertical and machine-to-machine opportunities 46
  • 4.3.8 WiMAX re-establishing itself... but still no competitor to LTE 46

5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 48

6 RELATED RESEARCH 49

Figures

• Figure 1 - Australian Mobile Subscribers and Annual Service Revenue, 2005-2009 11
• Figure 2 - Australian Mobile Subscribers and Penetration Rates, 2005-2009 12
• Figure 3 - Examples of Mobile Phones Aimed At Young Children and Seniors 12
• Figure 4 - Australian Mobile Subscriber share by form factor, 2009 13
• Figure 5 - Australian Mobile Annual Service Revenue, Voice vs Non-Voice, 2005-2009 14
• Figure 6 - Australian Mobile Monthly ARPU, 2005-2009 14
• Figure 7 - Australian Mobile Monthly ARPU by Generation, 2004-2009 15
• Figure 8 - Australian Mobile Non-Voice Revenue by Application Type, 2009 16
• Figure 9 - Australian Mobile Subscriber Market Share by Carrier, 2009 16
• Figure 10 - Australian Mobile Revenue Market Share by Carrier, 2009 17
• Figure 11 - Australian Mobile Subscriber Market Share by User Segment, 2009 18
• Figure 12 - Australian Mobile Subscribers by Technology Generation, 2005-2009 19
• Figure 13 - Australian Mobile Service Revenue by Technology Generation, 2005-2009 20
• Figure 14 - Australian 3G Subscriber Share by Provider, 2009 21
• Figure 15 - Australian 3G Service Revenue Share by Provider, 2009 21
• Figure 16 - Australian Mobile Broadband Subscriber Share by Provider, 2009 22
• Figure 17 - Telstra Next G Coverage Map, 2009 26
• Figure 18 - Optus' 3G Coverage Map, 2009 28
• Figure 19 - VHA' s 3G Coverage Map, 2009 30
• Figure 20 - Australian Mobile Subscriber and Penetration Rate Forecast, 2010-2014 33
• Figure 21 - Australian Mobile Service Subscriber and Revenue Forecast, 2010-2014 33
• Figure 22 - Australian Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, Voice vs Non-Voice, 2010-2014 34
• Figure 23 - Australian Mobile Monthly ARPU Forecast, Voice vs Non-Voice, 2010-2014 34
• Figure 24 - Australian Mobile Non-Voice Service Revenue Forecast by Application Type, 2010-2014 35
• Figure 25 - Australian Mobile Subscriber Forecast by Technology Generation, 2010-2014 36
• Figure 26 - Australian Mobile Revenue Forecast by Technology Generation, 2010-2014 36
• Figure 27 - Australian Mobile Monthly ARPU Forecast by Technology Generation, 2010-2014 37
• Figure 28 - Australian Mobile Subscriber Forecast by Billing Status, 2010-2014 38
• Figure 29 - Australian Mobile Broadband Subscriber Forecast, 2010-2014 38
• Figure 30 - Australian Mobile Broadband Traffic vs. Revenue, 2010-2014 39
• Figure 31 - Telstra' s LTE Roadmap 41
• Figure 32 - Proposed LTE Spectrum Band for Australia 41
• Figure 33 - Current and Planned Usage of Business Mobile Applications, 2009 42
• Figure 34 - Current and Planned Usage of Consumer Mobile Applications, 2009 43
• Figure 35 - New vertical and machine-to-machine opportunities 46

Tables

• Table 1 - Australian 3G Network Deployment, 1Q 2010 18
• Table 2 - Australian Mobile Broadband Offerings by Carrier, 1Q 2010 vs. 2Q 2009 23
• Table 3 - Australian Mobile Market Key Performance Indicators, 2008 vs. 2009 24
• Table 4 - Telstra Mobile Market Key Performance Indicators, 2008 vs. 2009 25
• Table 5 - Optus Mobile Market Key Performance Indicators, 2008 vs. 2009 27
• Table 6 - VHA Mobile Market Key Performance Indicators, 2008 vs. 2009 29
• Table 7 - MVNO Collective Mobile Market Key Performance Indicators, 2008 vs. 2009 31
• Table 8 - Australian Mobile Market Forecast, 2010-2014 40
• Table 9 - Short-to-Medium and Long-Term Opportunities in Australian Mobile Market 48

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