Teal Group's World Civil Unmanned Aerial Systems Market Profile & Forecast 2016 annual section study, authored by Phil Finnegan focuses on lucrative business opportunities in the emerging civil government and commercial UAS market.
- 10-Year Market Forecasts - Covering the overall market as well as segments of the market such as industrial inspection, agriculture, aerial photography, insurance. It will also cover the civil government market including homeland security, law enforcement and environmental work.
- Expert Analysis - A cogent outlook and rational for what will be hot over the next decade.
- Venture Capital - Analysis of the involvement of venture capital and ways it is transforming the market.
- Regulations - Differences in the ways regulations for civil/commercial UAS are being implemented worldwide and ways that are transforming the market.
- Companies - An analysis of the strategies companies are using to position themselves in the market, including acquisitions, teaming and product development.
In terms of aerospace, the market for civil UAS promises to be one of the most dynamic growth sectors for the next decade, emerging from a $2.6 billion market in 2016 to more than quadruple to $10.9 billion by 2025. Over the next ten years the market totals $65 billion.
Although consumer systems represent about half of the overall market through the decade, the fastest growth comes from commercial systems, which surpass consumer systems in 2022 and continue to widen the lead throughout the rest of the forecast period.
Recent technological advances from the application of cell phone technology have enabled the development of easy to use, low-cost systems. That is critical for commercial applications, which are much more concerned with cost than the military market, in which performance is most critical. Governments are much more willing than private businesses to pay for small increments of improvement.
Streamlined regulations are being adopted in many major countries to speed the adoption of UAS for civil and commercial operation. The FAA issued its new small UAS rule in June 2016. The European Aviation Safety Agency is working to harmonize European country regulations by establishing rules for small UAS across the European Union by the end of 2016 or early 2017.
Tremendous interest by technology leaders such as Intel Corp., Amazon, Facebook, Google and Samsung is adding to the speed of development by providing financing and an infusion of new technology and talent.
An infusion of capital is creating an industry of startups in both manufacturing and the services that will be critical to development of the commercial market.
Technological development is creating systems that are more autonomous and easier to use. An industry is being created of UAS data analysis firms. Algorithms are under development that will broaden the applicability of UAS in agriculture and other areas. This continues to broaden the efficacy of the systems and lowers barriers to entry in their use.
Civil government promises to benefit from growing concerns about border and maritime security in the United States and Europe. Peacekeeping operations for United Nations and other countries promise to further boost sales. In addition, public safety use is growing.
The consumer UAS market, which led the development of many of the capabilities that are now being applied to commercial applications, also promises to grow. The greater maturity of the consumer UAS market will limit that growth to rates well below the explosive growth of the consumer and civil government markets. Nonetheless it will continue to grow thanks to new technological developments and a wider range of product offerings.
There are uncertainties about the outlook. The speed and size of the market development will directly relate to the specific rules adopted by regulatory bodies worldwide regarding access to the airspace. The more restrictive those rules are the slower will be the adoption by civil government and commercial customers.
The longer those rules take to develop for routine access to airspace, the less valuable the market will be during the forecast period.
Major accidents or terrorist use of systems could result in new regulations that would hurt the market. Relatively inexpensive prosumer systems are improving in quality and could threaten to take the market from more expensive professional systems.
As the commercial market develops, it mostly will be based on inexpensive prosumer and mini UAVs and will be much more price sensitive than the governmental market.
Even local law enforcement agencies will be buying inexpensive mini-systems and even prosumer systems rather than much costlier larger UAVs. While the unit numbers of these UAVs purchased promise be substantial, their value will be a small fraction of that of the costly, sophisticated systems such as Global Hawk and Predator.
The UAS tables below break down the forecast between the civil government, commercial and consumer markets.
The aim of this study is to examine the future worldwide market for civil government and commercial unmanned aerial vehicles. Teal Group already covers the military UAV market in its World Military Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems report and in its World Missiles & UAVs Briefing, which examines the UAV market on a program-by-program basis. The aim of this study is to focus purely on the emerging nonmilitary UAV industry.
To begin with, it is helpful to distinguish at least three elements of the civil government and commercial UAV market:
- Civil government UAVs for uses ranging from border security to law enforcement to research on wildlife.
- Commercial UAVs for uses including construction, agriculture, insurance, internet communications and general photography.
- Consumer/hobbyist UAVs, which are mass produced, particularly in China, for low end UAV applications. These are low cost and may or may not use a camera. They are not engaged in commercial activity.
This study examines each of those potential markets in turn.
Mini UAVs-We have grouped most Small Tactical UAVs under 55 pounds into this category. These are UAVs that are generally small enough to be launched by a person. They can be either fixed wing or quadrotor. Typical examples include the AeroVironment (US) Raven or Shrike, the senseFly (Switzerland) eBee, the Trimble (US) UX5, the PrecisionHawk Lancaster 5, the microdrones (Germany) MD4-1000 and MD-4-200. Obviously mini UAVs are where much of the activity in the commercial market will take place due to the cost-effectiveness and easing regulatory restrictions on the operation of these systems.
Prosumer UAVs-These systems are higher-end consumer systems that are being used for commercial applications. This includes systems such as the DJI Inspire, the DJI Spreading Wings family (S800, S900 and S1000) and the DJI Matrice. They will be used in large numbers in the market, but their low cost means the overall value will be limited.
Small UAVs-Higher-end Small Tactical UAVs such as the Boeing Insitu ScanEagle and the Textron Aerosonde are grouped within this category. These are generally used for civil government applications such as maritime patrol or civil government/ commercial applications for beyond visual-line-of-sight operations in which lengthy endurance is needed, such as pipeline or railway line patrol.
Tactical UAVs-These are UAVs used for reconnaissance with endurance of several hours and operating radius of 200 kilometers or less. Civil government applications for this type of system tend to be in paramilitary operations such as peacekeeping.
MALE UAVs-A Medium Altitude/ Long Endurance (MALE) UAV with endurance of about 24 hours and long range capability, generally used for reconnaissance. In a civil role, MALE UAVs are used by national agencies such as the US Department of Homeland Security for border and or maritime security. These systems are generally too costly for commercial operations. Typical examples are the General Atomics Aeronautical Systems' Predator and the Israel Aerospace Industries' Heron.
Low Cost HALE-A High Altitude/ Long Endurance (HALE) UAV with the planned endurance of up to three months, generally intended for use in providing internet to areas in which infrastructure is lacking. Airbus, Facebook and Google are all working on solar-powered UAS systems.
Table of Contents
- The Civil UAS Market Outlook
- Study Parameters
- Forecast Assumptions
- Civil Market Enabling Conditions
- FAA Speeding Progress in Opening National Airspace
- Europe Pushing Ahead with New Airspace Access Regulations
- Asia Pacific Countries Adopt Varying Positions on Regulations
- Influx of Major Technology Companies
- Flood of Investment in Commercial UAS
- Development of the UAS Services Industry
- Civil Government Market Growth Boosted by Immigration Concerns
- Commercial Market Size and Timing
- Emergence of Enterprise Markets in Construction, Energy, Insurance
- Precision Agriculture
- Consumer Drone Market Growth to Continue
- Uncertainties About Civil/Commercial Market Growth
- Forecast Summaries
Development of the Civil/Commercial UAS Industry
- Emergence of the Commercial UAS Industry.
- The Structure of the Nascent Industry Takes Shape
- Moving up the Value Chain
- Technology Leaders Seek to Protect Their Market Position by Moving into UAS
- Defense Companies' Approach to the Civil/Commercial Market
- Emergence of the Hybrid Hardware/Software/Data Analysis Companies
- Growth of the Service Industry
- Mergers and Acquisitions
- Acquisitions Picking Up as Outside Tech Companies Seek to Enter UAS Market
- Other Companies Looking to Enter the Civil UAS Business to Complement Existing Businesses
- Solar-Powered Systems Began Acquisition Drive
- Future Consolidation
- Venture Capital Funding
- Venture Capital Drone Investment Soaring
- Investments Greatest in the United States and China
- Future Venture Capital Funding Outlook
US Civil Government Markets
- FAA Begins Opening National Airspace
- The Rule on Small UAS
- Shifting Section 333 Approval Process
- Emergence of the Initial US Commercial Market
- Earlier FAA Movement in Allowing US Commercial UAS Operations
- Frustrations with the Pace of FAA Progress
- Past Blueprint Highlighting the Difficulties of National Airspace Access
- US Federal Government Use Cases
- Department of Homeland Security
- Department of Homeland Security: Customs & Border Protection
- Customs & Border Protection Background.
- Department of Homeland Security: Coast Guard
- Department of State
- Department of Justice
- Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Building Up its Capabilities
- Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) Faces UAS Setbacks.
- Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) Ending Its Program
- US Marshall Service
- Department of Justice Assistance to Local Law Enforcement
- US Department of Interior
- Procurement Outlook
- Department of Interior: US Geological Survey
- Department of Interior: Bureau of Land Management
- Department of Interior: Forestry Applications
- US Department of Agriculture
- US Department of Commerce
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Other Federal Government UAV Users
- National Institute of Standards
- NASA Research UAVs
- Other Federal Agencies
- State and Local Government
- State and Local Law Enforcement and Public Safety
- US Civil Government Market Forecast
International Civil Government Markets
- European Union Agencies & Programs
- Proposed European Border and Coast Guard
- Frontex-European Agency for the Management of External Borders.
- European Maritime Safety Agency.
- European Fisheries Control Agency
- Maritime Rescue Coordination Center (Refugee Operations)
- European Emergency Number Association
- Individual European Nations' Civil Government Market
- Russian Federation
- United Kingdom
- European Civil Government Forecast
- Rest of the World Civil Government Markets
- United Nations and Other Multinational Institutions
- United Nations
- International Organization for Migration
- Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
- Rest of the World (Individual Countries)
- New Zealand
- South Africa
- United Arab Emirates
- Rest of the World Civil Government Forecast
- State of Adoption
- Potential Applications.
- Construction Manufacturers' Plans for UAS Operations
- Largest Construction Contractors Worldwide Embracing UAS
- Energy (Oil and Gas/Utilities)
- Common Characteristics of Oil and Gas and Utilities
- Deployment of UAS for Oil and Gas
- Numerous UAS Companies Already Involved in Oil and Gas
- Oil and Gas Pipeline Market Requirements
- Pipeline Patrol: A Tale of Two Markets
- Potential UAS Applications for Utilities
- Transmission Line Inspections in United States
- Power Line Inspections in Europe and Asia
- Choice of System for Transmission Line Inspection
- Agricultural UAS Applications
- UAS Spraying Market Remains Exclusively an Asia-Pacific Market
- Emergence of the UAS Agricultural Imagery Market
- Communications: Low-Cost HALE
- Low Cost HALE Technology Rapidly Emerging
- Solar HALE Pushes Ahead into Production
- Google's Approach
- Facebook's Approach
- Solar UAS Operating Procedure for Internet
- Insurance Market Outlook
- US Insurance Companies Forging Ahead Quickly
- Drones Being Tested.
- International Insurance UAS Outlook
- General Photography/Real Estate.
- Overall Market
- Real Estate, News Gathering and Cinematography
- Large Potential Delivery Market
- US Regulatory Issues
- Other Obstacles Needing to be Overcome
- China Moving Ahead
- Most Promising Delivery Uses in the Near Term.
- Consumer Drones
- Explosive Growth of the Consumer Drone Market
- Catalysts for Continued Market Growth
- AeroVironment Inc.
- Airbus Defense & Space (formerly European Defense and Space Co.)
- AirRobot GmbH & Co.
- Aeryon Labs Inc
- Amazon.Com, Inc.
- Altavian Inc.
- Ascending Technologies
- Aurora Flight Sciences
- The Boeing Co.
- CAE Inc.
- CACI International Inc.
- Cape Productions
- CyberHawk Innovations Ltd.
- CyPhy Works, Inc
- DJI Innovations
- Draganfly Innovations Inc.
- Dragonfly Pictures, Inc
- Drone Deploy
- Elbit Systems Ltd.
- Ehang (Beijing Yi-Hang Creation Science & Technology Co., Ltd.)
- EMT Ingenieurgesellschaft
- Facebook, Inc.
- Falcon Unmanned
- FLIR Systems
- General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.
- Honeywell International Inc.
- Intel Corp.
- Insitu Inc
- Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd.
- Kaman Corp
- Leonardo (formerly Finmeccanica)
- Leptron Unmanned Aircraft Systems, Inc
- Lockheed Martin Corp
- MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates Ltd
- microdrones GmbH
- Northrop Grumman Corp.
- Parrot SA.
- PrecisionHawk Inc.
- Prioria Robotics
- Qualcomm Technologies Inc.
- Raytheon Co.
- Rockwell Collins Inc.
- Saab Group
- Schiebel Elektronische Geraete GmbH.
- Sikorsky Aircraft Co. (now Part of Lockheed Martin Corp.).
- Singapore Aerospace
- Sony (Aerosense)
- Stark Aerospace
- Survey Copter
- Swift Engineering
- Tekever Group
- Textron Systems Unmanned Systems
- Trimble Navigation.
- UMS Skeldar
- VT Group
- Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd.
- Yuneec International
- Zala Aero Group.
- US FAA Section 333 Authorizations for Commercial UAS Operations
- French Authorizations for Commercial UAS Operations