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市場調查報告書
長波高傳輸速率雷射市場的現狀與預測：2004年版
Long-Wavelength High-Data-Rate Lasers--2004
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本報告已在2011年07月19日停止出版。
以調查光纖網絡在世界上有極高評價的美國調查公司Strategies Unlimited (總公司：加立佛尼亞州)在調查、分析了通信用高速雷射市場後，發行了“Long-Wavelength High-Data-Rate Lasers - 2004”報告書。
這份報告書裡有雷射與無線通信產品的應用、市場、技術、供給者的概要、主要供給者的收益與市場佔有率、應用或類別的市場預測等，倂有圖表，概略如下所記。
1. 報告摘要
2. 調查範圍
3. 無線通信產品的差別化
- 通信規定
- 10-Gb/s 電氣回線的連結裝置
- 多樣式纖維用ＬＸ４及ＥＤＣ
- 行程形式的要因
- 中繼站
- 連結器
- Sub components package
- 雷射機器
- 長波雷射的實際成績
- 長波VCSEL的接觸
- VCSEL 及其他雷射技術的課題
- 其他的雷射技術
4. 產品預測
- 雷射的引進及網路類型
- 雷射之配置
- 長距離波長帯區域的発展
- 技術檢討課題
- 企業裡網路之発展
- 網路系統產品的預測
- 距離及不同傳輸速度產品的預測
- 硬體市場分析
- 1310-nm 対 1550-nm 雷射配置
- 系統裝置與雷射配置
- 主要因素別與雷射配置
5. 價格預測
- 一般價格預測
- 各價格變動
- 數量與雷射價格
- 中國與歐洲的價格
- 垂直統合與雷射的價格
- 資料速度與雷射價格
- 波長與雷射的價格
- 距離與雷射的價格距離
- 輸出功率與雷射価格
- DWDM、CWDM 及 WDM 不成對比的雷射價格
- 固定及可變波長的雷射價格
- 通訊規則與雷射的價格
- 包裝類型與雷射的價格
- 電氣迴路技術與雷射價格
- 生産成本
- 各種雷射的價格
6. 収益預測
- 距離及資料速度傳送快慢的收益預測
- 規約的收益預測
- 型態因素區別的收益預測
- 波長區別的收益預測
- 系統裝置類型區別的收益預測
7. 供給者
- 供給者的收益與市場占有率
- 供給者按地區劃分雷射的負荷量
- 顧客所在地區的雷射負荷量
- 供給者與產品的追蹤
- 長波無線機供應商
- 波長可變雷射供應商
- 可調波長雷射的企業
- 擁有新技術的供應商
附錄
January 22, 2003 -- Mountain View, CA -- The recovery in the telecom sector and growing use of 10 Gigabit optical links for enterprise and storage applications will drive steady growth in the long wavelength laser and transceiver market. However, 2004 will be critical for the suppliers, with well over 40 companies clamoring for orders spread among a dizzying number of new and existing segments, and surprisingly little consolidation in the hodge-podge of companies so far. These findings are presented in a new study just released by Strategies Unlimited, Long-Wavelength High-Data-Rate Lasers--2004, to be presented Monday at the Laser Focus World Marketplace Seminar in San Jose, California. Other findings in the report include the following.
- Lead times are extending for the first time in several years, after the market fell by 80% from its peak to nearly $500 million in 2003. It will recover in 2004 and grow at a compound annual rate of 24% by 2008. The recovery will be boosted by the growing use of optical links in LANs and SANs that will spill over to create new demand for long wavelength transceivers in campus, and to a lesser extent, metro networks.
- Promising opportunities include emerging form factors and new approaches to carry 10 Gigabit traffic over legacy multimode fiber. These latter developments will drive the use of long wavelength transceivers where short wavelength transceivers have been traditionally used.
- Two suppliers associated with enterprise network products, Agilent and Finisar, led sales in 2003. Such datacom transceiver supplie rs are pushing toward higher-end products, while some traditionally high-end telecom suppliers are seeking to capture sales to enterprise equipment makers.
- In all, dozens of companies are competing over a changing array of segments. Because every supplier has cut back severely, no company can feel secure about its own ability to recover, or in the case of start-ups, just to make it to first base.
"The saying that 'past performance is no indication of future behavior' is especially apt in this market," says Tom Hausken, director of communication component research at Strategies Unlimited. "It is impossible to predict who will eventually emerge as the new market leaders, but a change in the lineup is certain, and we are seeing some of that already."
Long-Wavelength High-Data-Rate Lasers--2004 reviews the applications, markets, technology, and suppliers of these lasers and transceivers products, and presents forecasts by application and type, including unit sales and price projections, along with estimates of revenues and market shares of key suppliers. 1. Key Findings
- 1.1. The report
- 1.2. The forecasts
- 1.3. The suppliers
2. Methodology and Scope
- 2.1. Scope of the study
- 2.2. Methodology
- 2.3. Lasers and the supply chain
3. Transceiver Product Differentiation
- 3.1 Protocols
- 3.2 10 Gbps electrical line interfaces
- 3.3 LX4 and EDC for multimode fiber
- 3.4 Form factors
- 3.5 The rise and fall of transponders
- 3.6 Connectors
- 3.7 Subcomponent packages
- 3.8 Laser operating regimes
- 3.9 Long wavelength laser achievements
- 3.10 Incumbent vs. emerging laser technologies
- 3.11 Issues for VCSELs and other emerging lasers
- 3.12 Approaches to long wavelength VCSELs
- 3.13 Other emerging laser approaches
4 Unit Forecasts
- 4.1 Laser installations and types of networks
- 4.2 Distribution of lasers by reach
- 4.3 Long haul bandwidth growth
- 4.4 The metro bottleneck that isn�ft
- 4.5 The explosion in enterprise networking
- 4.6 Unit forecast by protocol
- 4.7 Unit forecast by reach and data rate
- 4.8 Distribution of 1310 vs. 1550-nm lasers
- 4.9 Distribution of lasers by device type
- 4.10 Distribution of lasers by form factor
5 Price forcast
- 5.1 General price forecast
- 5.2 General trends in laser prices
- 5.3 Quantities and laser prices
- 5.4 China prices vs. western prices
- 5.5 Vertical integration and laser prices
- 5.6 Data rate and laser prices
- 5.7 Wavelength and laser prices
- 5.8 Reach and laser prices
- 5.9 Output power and laser prices
- 5.10 DWDM, CWDM and non-WDM laser prices
- 5.11 Fixed and tunable laser prices
- 5.12 Protocol and laser prices
- 5.13 Package type and laser prices
- 5.14 Device technology and laser prices
- 5.15 Manufacturing cost and subcomponent prices
- 5.16 Selected laser subcomponent prices
6 Revenue forecasts
- 6.1 Revenue forecast by reach and data rate
- 6.2 Revenue forecast by form factor
- 6.3 Revenue forecast by data rate
- 6.4 Revenue forecast by device type
7 Suppliers
- 7.1 Supplier revenues and market shares
- 7.2 Laser shipments by region of supplier
- 7.3 Laser shipments by region of customer
- 7.4 Tracking suppliers and products
- 7.5 Suppliers of long wavelength transceivers
- 7.6 Merchant suppliers of laser subcomponents
- 7.7 Suppliers of tunable lasers
- 7.8 Suppliers of emerging technologies
8 Appendix: Useful Resources
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