[英文調查報告書] 美國童書出版市場（2010年）

Abstract

Now in its fourth edition, Children' s Publishing Market Forecast 2010 offers an accurate and objective perspective on where the market for children' s books is headed in 2010, as well as analysis of market opportunities and pitfalls. How are publishers battling challenges such as an overall decline in reading, returns of unsold stock from retailers, and the intensifying battle for shelf space?

The overwhelming successes of children' s book series in recent years such as Harry Potter, Captain Underpants and Stephenie Meyer' s Twilight have sent publishers scrambling to uncover the next multi-title blockbuster craze. In addition, bestselling individual titles of rapidly growing genres like graphic novels have illuminated the children' s book market as a lucrative space for publishers, editors, marketers, distributors and retailers in the trade book industry. What' s more, the nuances of children' s books compared to “young adult” titles needs to be better understood by everyone in the industry value chain.

Armed with an archive of trade book data that goes back more than 30 years, Simba' s team of seasoned trade book analysts examines the market for children' s books segment by segment, from youngsters to tweens to teens. In addition, Children' s Publishing Market Forecast 2010 provides high-quality, unbiased market intelligence on the publishing houses, and the entire retail landscape, from independent bookstores to online outlets to big box stores.

Gain access to exclusive statistics and analysis such as:

An in-depth look at bestselling children' s books drawn from the USA Today, Publishers Weekly and New York Times lists, with breakdowns of top-performing titles, authors, imprints and a comprehensive category ranking of which books are selling and which are not.
Expanded analysis of the most vital facet of children' s publishing: series books.
Results from Simba' s surveys of independent retailers across the country rating different books and genres; as well as info on buyer profiles and behaviors.
Exclusive five-year category trends for 15 major juvenile categories.

Children' s Publishing Market Forecast 2010 includes detailed strategic and financial profiles of companies such as Candlewick Press, Disney Publishing Worldwide, Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins, Holtzbrinck, Houghton Mifflin, Penguin Group, Random House, Scholastic and Simon & Schuster.

This report is a critical tool in evaluating growth potential, understanding trends affecting the industry, sizing up the competition, reviewing potential partner or acquisition profiles, examining market share rankings of leading publishers, benchmarking performance, and planning short- and long-term growth strategies.

Children' s Publishing Market Forecast 2010 is essential for publishing executives, M&A advisors, market analysts, and industry consultants who need to understand the business strategies driving the children' s trade book publishing industry today.

Methodology

Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Children' s Book Market and Buyer Demographics

Introduction
Who Are the Buyers?
Girls Are Still Reading More Than Boys

Table 1.1: Who Is Buying Most of the Children' s/YA Titles in Your Store?
Table 1.2: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults Who Have Purchased Children' s Books
Table 1.3: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Buyer Overview Spring 2007/Winter 2009
Table 1.4: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) with No Children in Household vs. One or More
Table 1.5: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) with One or More Children in Household
Table 1.6: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Buying Books as Gifts
Table 1.7: Describe the Gender Mix of Children' s/YA Book Buyers at Your Store 15

Chapter 2: Trends in Children' s Book Publishing

Introduction
- Children' s/YA Business vs. Adult Trade: What' s Healthier?
Children and Young Adults Are Reading Less
The Role of the Internet, Electronic Components Still Evolving
Series Still Rising
Series Case Study: Harry Potter
Fewer Authors Responsible for More Books
Trade Paperback Still Gaining Favor
Motion Picture Tie-Ins
Retailers and Publishers Relationships and Influence Changing
Teen Book Market Growth Outpacing Young Children' s

Table 2.1: Growth of Juvenile Trade vs. Adult Trade
Table 2.2: Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and Juvenile, 2009 vs. 2008
Table 2.3: Percentage of Children Who Read Almost Every Day for Fun
Table 2.4: Frequency with Which Children Read Books for Fun, by Age
Table 2.5: Frequency with Which Children Read Books for Fun
Table 2.6: Percentage of Children Who Read a Book the Previous Day
Table 2.7: Percentage of Time Spent Reading While Using Other Media
Table 2.8: Growth of Series in Title Output as a Percentage of Total Books Published, 2004-2009
Table 2.9: NYT/USA Today Children' s Bestsellers, July 2007-June 2008
Table 2.10: NYT/USA Today Children' s Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009
Table 2.11: Scholastic Revenue, FY2000-2008
Table 2.12: Average Bestselling Titles per Author
Table 2.13: What Format of Children' s/YA Has Been a Particularly Strong Performer in the First Half of 2009 vs. 2008?
Table 2.14: What Format of Children' s/YA Has Been a Particularly Weak Performer in the First Half of 2009 vs. 2008?
Table 2.15: How Would You Rate the Following Formats of Children' s Books in Terms of How They Sell?
Table 2.16: Top 20 Books to Movies, 2002-2008
Table 2.17: Children' s Titles on Weekly Bestseller Lists (NYT, USA Today)
Table 2.18: When Looking at Children' s and Young Adult Titles Separately, How Would You Say Your Business Is Trending?
Table 2.19: What Age Range Are Your Most Successful Children' s/YA Titles Found?

Chapter 3: Leading Authors, Books and Imprints

Introduction
New York Times Series Bestsellers
USA Today Bestsellers
- Bestselling Books
- Bestselling Authors
- Leading Imprints
Composite Analysis of USA Today and New York Times Lists
- Bestselling Books
- Bestselling Authors
- Leading Imprints
Comparing Parent Publishers: Total Bestsellers and Weeks per Title

Table 3.1: No. of New Children' s/YA Titles Appearing on NYT & USA Today Bestseller Lists, July 2006-June 2009
Table 3.2: Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.3: Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.4: Top New York Times Series Imprints, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.5: Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.6: Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.7: Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.8: Top 20 Authors, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.9: Top 20 Authors, July 2007-June 2008
Table 3.10: Top 20 Imprints, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.11: Leading Children' s Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison, July 2007-June 2009
Table 3.12: Comparison of Publishers, July 2008-June 2009

Chapter 4: Market Sizing and Forecasts

Introduction
Leading Children' s Publishers
- Candlewick
- Disney Publishing Worldwide
- Hachette/Little, Brown Books for Young Readers
- HarperCollins
- Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
- Macmillan
- Penguin Group (USA)
- Random House
- Scholastic
- Simon & Schuster
Revenue Trends
Valuation Trends
Size of the Children' s Publishing Market
Leading Children' s Publishers by Revenue
First-Half Comparisons, 2008 vs. 2007
Forecast for Balance of 2009 and Beyond

Table 4.1: Harry Potter-Only Revenue, Scholastic
Table 4.2: Revenue Growth, Children' s Trade Book Market, 2007-2011P
Table 4.3: Leading Children' s Publishers, 2007-2011P
Table 4.4: AAP Results: Children' s/YA Category Net Sales
Table 4.5: AAP Results: Children' s/YA Category Returns

Table 5.1: Leading Children' s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2007-June 2008
Table 5.2: Leading Children' s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009
Table 5.3: Leading USA Today Children' s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009
Table 5.4: New Children' s/YA Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2004-2008
Table 5.5: Select Category Ratings, Six-Year Overview
Table 5.6: Action & Adventure Bestseller Performance
Table 5.7: Vital Statistics - Action & Adventure
Table 5.8: Animals Bestseller Performance
Table 5.9: Vital Statistics - Animals
Table 5.10: Family & Relationships Bestseller Performance
Table 5.11: Vital Statistics - Family & Relationships
Table 5.12: Fantasy Bestseller Performance
Table 5.13: Vital Statistics - Fantasy
Table 5.14: Graphic Novel Bestseller Performance
Table 5.15: Vital Statistics - Graphic Novel
Table 5.16: History Bestseller Performance
Table 5.17: Vital Statistics - History
Table 5.18: Horror Bestseller Performance
Table 5.19: Vital Statistics - Horror
Table 5.20: Horror & Ghost Bestseller Performance
Table 5.21: Vital Statistics - Horror & Ghost
Table 5.22: Humor Bestseller Performance
Table 5.23: Vital Statistics - Humor
Table 5.24: People & Places Bestseller Performance
Table 5.25: Vital Statistics - People & Places
Table 5.26: Religion Bestseller Performance
Table 5.27: Vital Statistics - Religion
Table 5.28: Schools & Education Bestseller Performance
Table 5.29: Vital Statistics - Schools & Education
Table 5.30: Science Fiction Bestseller Performance
Table 5.31: Vital Statistics - Science Fiction
Table 5.32: Social Issues Bestseller Performance
Table 5.33: Vital Statistics - Social Issues
Table 5.34: Social Science Bestseller Performance
Table 5.35: Vital Statistics - Social Science
Table 5.36: Total Juvenile Hardcover Titles Published, 2003-2008
Table 5.37: Total Juvenile Softcover Titles Published, 2003-2008
Table 5.38: Class Share of E-Book Bestsellers, 2008-2009

Chapter 6: Distribution and Retail Sales

Introduction
Where Books Are Being Purchased
Children' s/YA Through the Lens of Bookstores
Mass Merchandisers and Children' s Book Retailing
Performance and Outlook of the Big Three Chains
- Barnes & Noble
- Borders Group
- Books-A-Million
Profit Margins at the Big Three Chains
Superstores and Small Format Store Closings
Online Bookselling
Book Clubs, Fairs and Direct-to-Consumer Sales

Table 6.1: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel Trends
Table 6.2: Number of Physical Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box
Table 6.3: What % of Your Business Is Comprised of Children' s/YA Sales?
Table 6.4: What % of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Buyers Bought Another Book at the Same Time?
Table 6.5: How Effective Are the Following Children' s/YA Promotional Efforts?
Table 6.6: Bestselling Children' s Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2009
Table 6.7: Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, Fiscal 2004-2008
Table 6.8: Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2004-2008
Table 6.9: Big Three Bookstore Chains Operating Performance, 2004-2008
Table 6.10: Number of Superstore Outlets, 2003-2008
Table 6.11: Revenue of Leading Online Booksellers, 2004-2008
Table 6.12: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer

Chapter 7: Forecasts and Conclusions

Conclusions
Other Recommendations

Table 7.1: Things Parents Have Done in Relation to Child' s Reading Habits
Table 7.2: Revenue Growth, Children' s Trade Book Market, 2006-2010P

Profiles of Leading Children' s Book Publishers

Candlewick Press
Disney Publishing Worldwide
Hachette Book Group
HarperCollins Publishers
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Macmillan
Penguin Group (USA)
Random House
Scholastic Corp.
Simon & Schuster

美國童書出版市場（2010年）

Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2010