Abstract
The report "Fixed or mobile WiMAX? Forecasts and assessment for the transition
from 802.16-2004 to 802.16e WiMAX" presents an in-depth analysis of the market
dynamics for the two versions of WiMAX, and for both fixed and mobile services.
The availability of two, mutually incompatible, versions of WiMAX creates a
challenge for everybody in the industry, trying to understand how they will
fare in the market, which one will dominate in the long term and which
services they will support. 802.16-2004 WiMAX only supports fixed access, but
products are already available.
802.16e WiMAX supports mobile and fixed access but products are still at least
a year away. Vendors need to understand what demand there is for these two
technologies in order to refine their product roadmaps. Service providers want
to understand which technology best meets their requirements and will enjoy
long-term support from vendors.
The report addresses these issues and in addition it provides an extensive
overview of WiMAX technology, competing technologies, regulation, and business
models. It gives a very detailed forecast of subscribers, service revenues and
equipment revenues for 15 countries, 6 regions and for the worldwide market.
Extensive forecast (2006-2010) of WiMAX demand, service revenues and
equipment revenues
The forecast presents data at the global, regional and country level as shown
below.
Regions
- North America
- Latin America
- Western Europe
- Eastern Europe
- Asia Pacific
- Rest of the World
Countries
- Argentina
- Australia
- Brazil
- Canada
- China
- France
- Germany
- India
- Italy
- Japan
- Korea
- Mexico
- Spain
- UK
- USA
For each market, the forecast includes:
- Fixed and mobile broadband subscribers
- Fixed and mobile WiMAX subscribers
- Data and VoIP service revenues
- Data revenues by market segment
- Residential, business and mobile ARPU
- Equipment revenues.
Companies mentioned
O2, Access Telecom, ADP Telecom, Afribone Mali, Airspan, Alcatel, Altitude,
Altitude Telecom, Alvarion, Aperto, AT&T, Axtel, Axxcelera Broadband Wireless,
Beceem, BelAir, Bell Canada, BellSouth, Biva, Brasil Telecom, BT, Cambridge
Broadband, Clearwire, Dedicado, Delta Networks, Deutsche Telekom, Digitel,
Digiweb, EarthLink, Enertel, Entel, Ericsson, Ertach, FarmTel, Flarion, France
Telecom, Fujitsu, GemTek Technology, Global Catalyst Partners, Hanaro, Hopling
Technologies, Huawei, Iberbanda, Iliad, InfiNet Wireless, Intel, Intel
Capital, IntroWeb, Inukshuk, IP Wireless, Irish Broadband, JStream
Technologies, Korea Telecom, KT, KTB Ventures, Libera, Link 3, Lucent,
Marconi, MiTAC, Motorola, MVS Comunicaciones, Navini, Netia, Nex-G, Nextel,
NextNet, Nextweb/Covad, Nortel, Orange, picoChip, Pipex, Protel, Proxim,
Qualcomm, Quantum Broadband Solutions, Qwest, Radionet, Redline, Reliance
Infocomm, Rogers Communications, Runcom, Samsung, Samsung Venture Investment
Corporation, SBC, SEQUANS Communications, Sequoia Capital, Siemens Mobile,
SiGe Semiconductor, Singtel, SK Telecom, SkyPilot, Smart, SOMA Networks,
Speakeasy, Sprint Nextel, SR Technologies, Telabria, TeleCis Wireless, Telkom
SA, Telmex, Terabeam, Time, Time Warner Cable, T-Mobile, TowerStream, UHT, UK
Broadband, Ultranet, Unwired, VCom, Walden International, WaveIP, WaveRider,
Wavesat, Whoosh Wireless, Wi-LAN, WiMAX Telecom, Yozan, Z-Com, ZTE.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
1 Fixed and mobile WiMAX: two technologies and two markets?
- 1.1Why a mobile WiMAX?
- 1.2802.16-2004 WiMAX: dead on arrival?
- 1.3A transition to mobility through portability
- 1.4Report roadmap
2 A comparison between 802.16-2004 and 802.16e WiMAX
- 2.1The difference between 802.16 and WiMAX
- 2.2Standardization efforts at the IEEE
- 2.2.1The IEEE 802.16 standard
- 2.2.2 802.16-2004: the basis for WiMAX for fixed services
- 2.2.3802.16e: the amendment that supports mobility
- 2.2.4Handoffs and interworking
- 2.2.5Further requirements for mobility not included in the IEEE standard
- 2.3Technology overview
- 2.3.1System and certification profiles
- 2.3.2What is WiMAX? System profiles for 802.16-2004 and 802.16e WiMAX
- 2.3.3OFDM
- 2.3.4OFDMA and SOFDMA
- 2.3.5Why isn't 802.16e WiMAX backwards-compatible with 802.16-2004 WiMAX?
- 2.3.6Duplexing: TDD and FDD
- 2.3.7Adaptive Modulation Coding (AMC)
- 2.3.8Maximum and expected, real-life throughput and range
- 2.3.9Reuse factor
- 2.3.10Security
- 2.3.11QoS
- 2.3.12Multiple antenna technologies: STC, MIMO, and AAS
- 2.4The WiMAX Forum
- 2.4.1The role of the WiMAX Forum
- 2.4.2The need for certification: isn't a standard enough?
- 2.4.3The WiMAX Forum certification program
- 2.4.4WiMAX certification profiles
- 2.4.5WiMAX certification waves
- 2.5WiBRO
- 2.6Upgrade paths to portability and mobility
- 2.6.1The need for a smooth transition
- 2.6.2Different transition paths
- 2.6.3Who needs to upgrade?
3 Competing technologies
- 3.1DSL, cable modem and other fixed technologies
- 3.2Wi-Fi
- 3.2.1The public access hotspot market
- 3.2.2The last mile market
- 3.33G technologies: EV-DO, WCDMA/HSDPA and TD-CDMA
- 3.3.1Will WiMAX be faster than 3G?
- 3.3.2...or will it be cheaper?
- 3.3.3Friends or foes?
- 3.3.4IP Wireless TD-CDMA
- 3.4Qualcomm's FLASH-OFDM
- 3.5Pre-WiMAX proprietary technologies
- 3.6Where does WiMAX fit?
4 Business models for fixed and mobile services
- 4.1Product timeline
- 4.2Spectrum availability and regulation
- 4.2.1Choosing a spectrum band
- 4.2.2Licensed or license-exempt spectrum?
- 4.2.3Worldwide spectrum availability
- 4.3Services and applications
- 4.4A facilities-based approach to last mile connectivity
- 4.5Fixed, portable or mobile?
- 4.6Business and residential market segments
- 4.7Rural and metropolitan markets
- 4.8Municipal networks
- 4.9Developed and emerging markets
5 The vendors' perspective
- 5.1Chipset manufacturers
- 5.1.1Beceem
- 5.1.2Fujitsu
- 5.1.3Intel
- 5.1.4picoChip
- 5.1.5TeleCIS Wireless
- 5.1.6SEQUANS Communications
- 5.1.7Runcom
- 5.1.8Wavesat
- 5.2WiMAX vendors
- 5.2.1Airspan
- 5.2.2Alcatel
- 5.2.3Alvarion
- 5.2.4Aperto Networks
- 5.2.5Motorola
- 5.2.6Navini Networks
- 5.2.7NextNet
- 5.2.8Nortel
- 5.2.9Proxim Wireless
- 5.2.10Redline Communications
- 5.2.11Samsung
- 5.2.12Siemens
- 5.2.13SOMA Networks
- 5.2.14SkyPilot Networks
- 5.2.15SR Telecom
6 Worldwide demand for 802.16-2004 and 802.16e WiMAX
- 6.1Scope and methodology
- 6.2Fixed and mobile broadband forecast
- 6.2.1Fixed broadband
- 6.2.2Mobile broadband
- 6.3Global WiMAX forecast
- 6.3.1Subscribers
- 6.3.2Service revenues from data and VoIP
- 6.3.3Equipment revenues
- 6.4North America
- 6.4.1United States
- 6.4.2Canada
- 6.5Latin America
- 6.5.1Brazil
- 6.5.2Mexico
- 6.5.3Argentina
- 6.6Western Europe
- 6.6.1Germany
- 6.6.2UK
- 6.6.3France
- 6.6.4Italy
- 6.6.5Spain
- 6.7Eastern Europe
- 6.8Asia Pacific
- 6.8.1China
- 6.8.2Japan
- 6.8.3Korea
- 6.8.4India
- 6.8.5Australia
- 6.9Rest of the World
7 Conclusions
Annex: Acronyms
List of Figures
- Figure 1. Timescale for 802.16-2004 and 802.16e WiMAX
- Figure 2. Point-to-point and multipoint networks in different spectrum
bands
- Figure 3. System and certification profiles
- Figure 4. Multipath environment
- Figure 5. Single and multiple carrier transmission
- Figure 6. OFDM and OFDMA with multiple access
- Figure 7. Uplink in OFDM and OFDMA
- Figure 8. Modulation schemes: QAM 64, QAM 16, QPSK
- Figure 9. MIMO's performance improvement for Wi-Fi and 802.16e WiMAX
- Figure 10. WiBRO timeline
- Figure 11. Transition paths to 802.16e WiMAX
- Figure 12. Competing technologies
- Figure 13. Product availability and services timeline
- Figure 14. Worldwide spectrum availability for WiMAX
- Figure 15. WiMAX spectrum bands
- Figure 16. Competitive landscape for chip vendors
- Figure 18. Market focus of WiMAX vendors
- Figure 20. Samsung WiBRO mobile phone and PDA
- Figure 21. Forecast model for demand for fixed and mobile broadband
- Figure 22. Fixed broadband forecast
- 22.1 Global fixed broadband subscribers by technology
- 22.2 Global fixed broadband subscribers by region
- 22.3 Global fixed BWA broadband subscribers by region
- 22.4 WiMAX market share of fixed BWA subscriptions
- Figure 23. Mobile broadband forecast
- 23.1 Mobile broadband subscribers by device type
- 23.2Mobile broadband subscribers by region
- 23.3 Mobile broadband market share of broadband
- 23.4 Mobile WiMAX market share of mobile broadband
- Figure 24. 802.16-2004 and 802.16e WiMAX global subscribers
- Figure 25. WiMAX subscribers forecast
- 25.1 WiMAX subscribers by region
- 25.2 Fixed 802.16-2004 WiMAX subscribers by region
- 25.3 Fixed 802.16e WiMAX subscribers by region
- 25.4 Mobile 802.16e WiMAX subscribers by region
- Figure 26. Market size and WiMAX penetration by country and region in 2010
- 26.1 Percentage of WiMAX global subscribers
- 26.2 Ratio of WiMAX to broadband subscribers
- Figure 27. Global service revenues
- 27.1 VoIP and data service revenues
- 27.2 Data revenues by market segment
- 27.3 Residential, business and mobile ARPU
- Figure 28. Global equipment revenues
- 28.1 Equipment revenues for CPEs and base stations
- 28.2 Equipment revenues by region
- 28.3 Indoor, outdoor, portable/mobile CPE sales
- 28.4 CPE and base station average selling price
- Figure 29. USA data charts*
- Figure 30. Canada data charts*
- Figure 31. Latin America data charts*
- Figure 32. Brazil data charts*
- Figure 33. Mexico data charts*
- Figure 34. Argentina data charts*
- Figure 35. Western Europe data charts*
- Figure 36. Germany data charts*
- Figure 37. UK data charts*
- Figure 38. France data charts*
- Figure 39. Italy data charts*
- Figure 40. Spain data charts*
- Figure 41. Eastern Europe data charts*
- Figure 42. Asia Pacific data charts*
- Figure 43. China data charts*
- Figure 44. Japan data charts*
- Figure 45. Korea data charts*
- Figure 46. India data charts*
- Figure 47. Australia data charts*
- Figure 48. Rest of the World data charts*
(*) For each market, charts include:
- 1. Fixed and mobile broadband subscribers
- 2. Fixed and mobile WiMAX subscribers
- 3. Data and VoIP service revenues
- 4. Data revenues by market segment
- 5. Residential, business and mobile ARPU
- 6. Equipment revenues
List of Tables
- Table 1. A definition of fixed and mobile access
- Table 2. 802.16-2004 and 802.16e WiMAX compared
- Table 3. WiMAX terminology
- Table 4. IEEE 802.16 and WiMAX
- Table 5. Versions of the IEEE 802.16 standard
- Table 6. 802.16-2004 and 802.16e WiMAX system profiles
- Table 7. Number of sub-carriers in SOFDMA
- Table 8. FDD and TDD
- Table 9. Maximum throughput (Mbps) using different modulation schemes in
802.16-2004 WiMAX
- Table 10. Range, throughput and users supported by one base station
- Table 11. MIMO spectral efficiency and throughput
- Table 12. WiMAX Forum Working Groups and their charters
- Table 13. 802.16-2004 WiMAX Forum certification profiles
- Table 14. WiMAX certification waves
- Table 15. WiBRO specifications
- Table 16. Competing technologies in different market segments
- Table 17. WiMAX against DSL and cable modem
- Table 18. 802.16e WiMAX, FLASH-OFDM and 3G: throughput
- Table 19. 802.16e WiMAX, FLASH-OFDM and 3G: cell range and spectrum bands
- Table 20. Licensed or license-exempt spectrum
- Table 21. NextWeb and Covad: adopting a facilities-based approach
- Table 22. The WiMAX opportunity for service providers
- Table 23. Service operators trialing or committed to deploying WiMAX
- Table 24. WiMAX (plus Wi-Fi) on trains: Nomad Digital and T-Mobile
- Table 25. Business and residential market segments
- Table 26. Telabria: addressing both the residential and business market
- Table 27. Rural and metropolitan deployments
- Table 28. Libera: using license-exempt spectrum in metropolitan areas
- Table 29. Developed and emerging markets
- Table 30. Ultravision: from wireless cable to wireless broadband
- Table 31. Chipset developers' product roadmap and partnerships
- Table 32. Airspan
- Table 33. Alcatel
- Table 34. Alvarion
- Table 35. Aperto Networks
- Table 36. Motorola
- Table 37. Navini Networks
- Table 38. NextNet Wireless
- Table 39. Nortel
- Table 40. Proxim Wireless
- Table 41. Redline Communications
- Table 42. Samsung
- Table 43. Siemens
- Table 44. Soma Networks
- Table 45. SkyPilot Networks
- Table 46. SR Telecom
