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市場調查報告書

緬甸國防工業的未來:市場魅力、競爭環境、市場預測

Future of the Myanmar Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

出版商 Strategic Defence Intelligence 商品編碼 308601
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 73 Pages
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緬甸國防工業的未來:市場魅力、競爭環境、市場預測 Future of the Myanmar Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022
出版日期: 2017年05月03日 內容資訊: 英文 73 Pages
簡介

2015年緬甸的國防市場推算為28億美元。預計今後以5.64%的年複合成長率發展,2020年達到37億美元的規模。國內軍事支出的增加,反映了替換老化軍事相關硬體設備努力實現現代化,想確立國內國防工業基礎這樣的願望。內戰的持續和轉移至半民主政府,與孟加拉國的敵對關係等,推進了戰鬥機和海軍艦艇等軍事設備的升級。在預測期間中,預計將對多用途飛機、直升機、飛彈、潛水艇和護衛艦等艦艇、邊防安全、雷達系統等進行投資,這些成為對CAPEX的成長推進因素。

本報告提供緬甸的國防工業相關調查、緬甸的國防費用的變化與預測、支出擴大的影響因素分析、國防預算的分配、與其他的主要國家的比較、市場機會的領域刺激因素分析、採購及進出口的趨勢、打入市場策略、競爭環境與主要的國內企業概要等彙整。

第1章 簡介

第2章 摘要整理

第3章 市場魅力與新的市場機會

  • 國防市場規模的轉變與預測
  • 國防預算的分配
  • 和全球主要市場的比較基準
  • 市場機會:主要趨勢、刺激成長因素

第4章 國防採購市場

  • 進口市場力學
  • 出口市場力學

第5章 產業動態

  • 波特的五力分析

第6章 打入市場策略

  • 市場相關法規
  • 打入市場途徑
  • 主要課題

第7章 競爭環境與策略性考察

  • 競爭環境:概要
  • 主要的國內企業

第8章 商業環境、國家風險

  • 人口統計、社會統計
    • 人口、家庭數
  • 經濟趨勢
    • 平均每個人的GDP
    • 實質GDP
    • 國民整體可支配所得
    • 製造業產量
    • 消費者物價指數等
  • 能源、公共事業
  • 基礎設施的品質與可用性
  • 礦物
  • 通訊

第9章 附錄

圖表

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目錄

Summary:

Myanmar defense budget is valued at US$2.4 Billion in 2017, and registered a CAGR of 0.05% during the historic period. The country is currently in the midst of a political transformation as historically; Myanmar was ruled by the army but is now being run by a civilian government. Moreover, the country's involvement in the longest lasting civil war and ethnic conflicts along with its increasing capital expenditure on modernization of the Myanmar Navy is expected to drive the country's defense expenditure during the forecast period.

Myanmar defense industrial base is relatively underdeveloped and, as a result, the country is largely dependent on foreign suppliers to fulfill its military needs. The country's under-developed indigenous defense manufacturing is reliant on foreign technology transfers, mainly from China, Russia and more recently from India. Myanmar does not export any arms to foreign countries, as its domestic defense industry is still in a nascent stage, and this is expected to remain so over the forecast period.

China and Russia have consistently been the largest suppliers of arms to Myanmar over the last decade and constituted 89% of the total Myanmar defense industry during 2012-2016. China emerged as the largest supplier of defense equipment, accounting for 70% of the country's total defense imports, followed by Russia with 19% during 2012-2016.

Being under an autocratic army rule for almost half a century, Myanmar has recently elected its first civilian-led government. However, the defense sector is still closed to any form of foreign direct investment (FDI), with direct government-to-government contracts and military-co-operations being the preferred mode of entry. Moreover, even though the country's defense market presents opportunities for foreign suppliers, the budget allocation for capital procurements is much lower compared to its neighbors and other South East Asian countries.

The report "Future of the Myanmar Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022" offers detailed analysis of the Myanmar defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years.

In particular, this report provides an in-depth analysis of the following -

The Myanmar defense industry market size and drivers: Detailed analysis of the Myanmar defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns.

Budget allocation and key challenges: Insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country.

Import and Export Dynamics: Analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years.

Market opportunities: Details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years.

Competitive landscape and strategic insights: Analysis of the competitive landscape of the Myanmar defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Companies mentioned in this report: Myanmar Defense Industries (DI)

Scope:

The Myanmar's defense budget values US$2.15 billion in 2017, and registered a CAGR of 0.76% during the historic period. The urgent need to modernize the country's defense arsenal, especially in the wake of the current European migration crisis and Russia military aggression in Ukraine has woken the concerned authorities to the possibility of an armed conflict in Europe. Coupled with the country's participation in peacekeeping operations and counter terrorism, this has driven the Myanmar defense expenditure during the historic period.

The capital expenditure allocation, which declined at an average of -5.2% during the historic period, is expected to increase significantly by an average of 12.4% during the forecast period. Key opportunities for equipment suppliers are expected in sectors such as military radar, transport aircraft, infantry vehicles, and military helicopters.

The MoD expected to invets in ammunition, weaponry, and equipment including new types of armament, new multi-role helicopters, infantry fighting vehicles, and air defense systems

Reasons to buy:

This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Myanmar defense industry market trends for the coming five years

The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products,alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

A deep qualitative analysis of the Myanmar defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

  • 1.1. What is this Report About?
  • 1.2. Definitions
  • 1.3. Summary Methodology
  • 1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

  • 3.1. Current Market Scenario
    • 3.1.1. Primary threat perception
    • 3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy
    • 3.1.3. Military Fleet Size
    • 3.1.4. Procurement Programs
    • 3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects
    • 3.1.6. Political & Strategic Alliances
  • 3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
    • 3.2.1. Myanmar defense expenditure is expected to grow at CAGR of 4.84% over 2018-2022
    • 3.2.2. Modernization of Myanmar Navy, an ongoing insurgencies and ethnic conflicts expected to drive defense expenditure over the forecast period
    • 3.2.3. Myanmar's defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to decrease marginally over the forecast period
  • 3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
    • 3.3.1. Share of capital & revenue expenditure is anticipated to remain steady over forecast period
    • 3.3.2. Capital expenditure expected to increase at CAGR of 5.25% over the forecast period
    • 3.3.3. Myanmar to spend US$1.66 billion cumulatively on revenue expenditure over the forecast period
    • 3.3.4. Per capita defense expenditure set to increase over the forecast period
    • 3.3.5. Myanmar faces significant risk from insurgent groups and ethnic conflicts
    • 3.3.6. Myanmar falls under "highly affected" terrorism category
    • 3.3.7. Myanmar has a terrorism index score of "4.2"
  • 3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
    • 3.4.1. Myanmar's defense budget expected to grow at a slower rate than its neighbors over the forecast period ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    • 3.4.2. Myanmarese defense expenditure is low compared to other Asian countries
    • 3.4.3. Myanmar allocates a higher share of GDP for defense compared to other Asian Countries
  • 3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
    • 3.5.1. Submarines
    • 3.5.2. Multi-role Aircraft
    • 3.5.3. Corvette

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

  • 4.1. Import Market Dynamics
    • 4.1.1. Defense imports are expected to recover over the forecast period
    • 4.1.2. China and Russia emerged as the largest suppliers of arms
    • 4.1.3. Armoured vehicles and aircraft dominate military hardware imports
  • 4.2. Export Market Dynamics
    • 4.2.1. Myanmar's domestic defense manufacturing is still in a nascent stage

5. Industry Dynamics

  • 5.1. Five Forces Analysis
    • 5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: high
    • 5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: low
    • 5.1.3. Barrier to entry: high
    • 5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low to medium
    • 5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low to medium

6. Market Entry Strategy

  • 6.1. Market Regulation
    • 6.1.1. Myanmar currently does not permit investment in the defense industry
  • 6.2. Market Entry Route
    • 6.2.1. Budget process
    • 6.2.2. Procurement Policy & Process
    • 6.2.3. Government-to-government contracts are the preferred market entry route for equipment manufacturers
    • 6.2.4. Closer military co-operation provides opportunity to enter into defense market
  • 6.3. Key Challenges
    • 6.3.1. A closed economy discourages related investment and market growth
    • 6.3.2. Limited defense budget discourages investors from market entry

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights

  • 7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
  • 7.2. Key Domestic Company
    • 7.2.1. Myanmar Defense Industries (KaPaSa Industries): overview
    • 7.2.2. Myanmar Defense Industries: products and services
    • 7.2.3. Myanmar Defense Industries: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

8. Business Environment and Country Risk

  • 8.1. Economic Performance
    • 8.1.1. GDP Per Capita
    • 8.1.2. GDP, Current Prices
    • 8.1.3. Gross National disposable income (USD Billion)
    • 8.1.4. Local Currency Unit per US Dollar
    • 8.1.5. Goods exports as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.6. Goods imports as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.7. Service Imports as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.8. Service exports as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.9. Net Foreign direct investment (BoP, current US$ Bn)
    • 8.1.10. Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP
    • 8.1.11. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion)

9. Appendix

  • 9.1. About SDI
  • 9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Myanmar Land Forces Strength
  • Table 2: Myanmar Navy Strength
  • Table 3: Myanmar Air Force Strength
  • Table 4: Myanmar Ongoing Procurement Programs
  • Table 5: Myanmar Future Procurement Programs
  • Table 6: Myanmar Defense Expenditure (MMK billion& US$ billion), 2013-2022
  • Table 7: Myanmar GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2013-2022
  • Table 8: Myanmar Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022
  • Table 9: Myanmar Defense Capital Expenditure (MMK Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Table 10: Myanmar Defense Revenue Expenditure (MMK Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Table 11: Myanmar Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022
  • Table 12: Terrorism Index, 2017
  • Table 13: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2013-2017vs. 2018-2022
  • Table 14: State/Region Budget Preparation Process
  • Table 15: Parliament budget reviewing process
  • Table 16: Myanmar Defense Industries - Product focus

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Myanmar Defense Expenditure (MMK Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 2: Myanmar Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 3: Myanmar GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2013-2022
  • Figure 4: Myanmar Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022
  • Figure 5: Myanmar Defense Capital Expenditure (MMK Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 6: Myanmar Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 7: Myanmar Defense Revenue Expenditure (MMK Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 8: Myanmar Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022
  • Figure 9: Myanmar Per-Capita Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022
  • Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2017
  • Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2017
  • Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022
  • Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2017 and 2022
  • Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%),2017
  • Figure 15: Submarines Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027
  • Figure 16: Multi-role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027
  • Figure 17: Corvette Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2021
  • Figure 18: Myanmar Defense Imports (US$ Million), 2012-2016
  • Figure 19: Myanmar Defense Imports by Country (%), 2012-2016
  • Figure 20: Myanmar Defense Imports by Weapon Category (%), 2012-2016
  • Figure 21: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • Figure 22: Myanmar GDP Per Capita, 2015-2025
  • Figure 23: Myanmar GDP, Current Prices (In US$ Billions), 2015-2025
  • Figure 24: Myanmar Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Bn), 2005-2013
  • Figure 25: Local Currency Unit per US$- Exchange Rate , 2015-2024
  • Figure 26: Myanmar Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
  • Figure 27: Myanmar Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
  • Figure 28: Myanmar Service Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
  • Figure 29: Myanmar Service exports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
  • Figure 30: Myanmar Foreign Direct Investment, Net (current US$ BN), 2005-2013
  • Figure 31: Myanmar Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2005-2013
  • Figure 32: Myanmar Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output(US$ Bn), 2005-2014
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